A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II

[Hitch]

15 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Good points. The reason I said "starting OF" was Yaz in '75 was not really the "starting" LF'er.  The back-ups were excellent defenders, too.

I did think of the 2018 OF, and I could see calling them as good or even better, but I like this one more.

Duran> Beni

Rafaela can be better than JBJ, but it is not proven, yet.

Betts> Abreu

I'd say Rafaela has a long long way to go to prove he can be as good a defensive CFer as Bradley. 

For me, right now, '18 is clearly the better defensive outfield. But we may feel different about it in a couple of years.

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

9 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

 but if this team lets Crochet leave after 2 years i will never again be a Red Sox fan. 

Nonsense

[mvp 78]

11 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

this is the first in several years I have been looking forward to a Red Sox season as I believe the Sox should be AL East favourites but if this team lets Crochet leave after 2 years i will never again be a Red Sox fan. the longer this goes on the higher the price goes.

Well... bye. 

We've seen how this ownership has run things. Crochet walking out that door wouldn't be beyond the pale. 

[moonslav59]

With all the Yankee injuries and losing Soto in the offseason, I can't see them as faves in 2025. They are close, but they seem to lack the depth needed to overcome all these missing pieces.

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, Hitch said:

I'd say Rafaela has a long long way to go to prove he can be as good a defensive CFer as Bradley. 

For me, right now, '18 is clearly the better defensive outfield. But we may feel different about it in a couple of years.

I don't think it is "clear" at all. I think beni was overrated, and Duran's ability to play plus CF makes hi significantly better, IMO. Betts was great in RF.

I'm a huge JBJ fan, and always was, and he made tough plays look easy. He had great instincts and a quick jump- always on the straightest route to the ball. He did lack speed, but he wasn't slow. I do agree, Rafaela needs to prove he is equal or better. Let's see.

[Hitch]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I don't think it is "clear" at all. I think beni was overrated, and Duran's ability to play plus CF makes hi significantly better, IMO. Betts was great in RF.

I'm a huge JBJ fan, and always was, and he made tough plays look easy. He had great instincts and a quick jump- always on the straightest route to the ball. He did lack speed, but he wasn't slow. I do agree, Rafaela needs to prove he is equal or better. Let's see.

These things are subjective of course, but I don't believe Beni was overrated (at least nowhere near to the extreme you seem to), even if Duran is the better all round fielder. Betts is by some distance better than Abreu and JBJ was one of the best we've ever seen at it. I love Rafaela and am higher on him than most, if not all judging by this post season discussion, but he is not in JBJ's league until he proves it. And he can only do that given time. So for now, given the choice, I take '18 and don't spend more than half a second wasting time on the decision. 

It'll be fun to see how I feel about it in a year or two. 

[Old Red]

1 minute ago, Hitch said:

These things are subjective of course, but I don't believe Beni was overrated (at least nowhere near to the extreme you seem to), even if Duran is the better all round fielder. Betts is by some distance better than Abreu and JBJ was one of the best we've ever seen at it. I love Rafaela and am higher on him than most, if not all judging by this post season discussion, but he is not in JBJ's league until he proves it. And he can only do that given time. So for now, given the choice, I take '18 and don't spend more than half a second wasting time on the decision. 

It'll be fun to see how I feel about it in a year or two. 

RAF Man is not in JBJ’s  league yet IMO. I’ve seen RAF Man make a couple better catches in Portland than I’ve seen with the Red Sox, and I don’t think it’s helped the RAF Man’s D by also playing IF. He said last year it would take him a few games to adjust tracking flyballs after playing games at SS. 

[mvp 78]

I think Rafaela could eventually be as good or better than peak JBJ. He's probably as good as pre-prime JBJ.

Beni made one decent catch in 2018 and everyone thinks he was a solid OFer. The catch he made was IMPORTANT, but it was a catch that is made on a almost nightly basis in MLB. 

Beni is basically Yoshida out there now.

2024 -7 OAA 5th percentile, -5 Arm Value 1st percentile

2023 -11 OAA 2nd percentile, -4 Arm Value 2nd percentile

His OAA has been 0 or negative every season except for 2018. 

[Hitch]

36 minutes ago, Old Red said:

RAF Man is not in JBJ’s  league yet IMO. I’ve seen RAF Man make a couple better catches in Portland than I’ve seen with the Red Sox, and I don’t think it’s helped the RAF Man’s D by also playing IF. He said last year it would take him a few games to adjust tracking flyballs after playing games at SS. 

Yup. Nowhere near. But he has the potential to be elite out there, especially as they are now anchoring him in CF. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

12 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Beni made one decent catch in 2018 and everyone thinks he was a solid OFer. The catch he made was IMPORTANT, but it was a catch that is made on a almost nightly basis in MLB. 

I definitely thought Benintendi was a solid leftfielder the last time the Red Sox won a title. 

So did the professionals who evaluate big league defense, and nominate top candidates at each position on ballots for Gold Glove Awards (which included all three members of the Boston starting outfield in '18). MLB managers and coaches thought Beni was pretty solid in 2021 when they actually awarded him a GG.

Rawlings recently made the award less subjective by considering some metrics in determining nominees.

https://easton.rawlings.com/gold-glove-criteria.html#:~:text=SABR Defensive Index,No fuss%2C no hassle.

 

 

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I definitely thought Benintendi was a solid leftfielder the last time the Red Sox won a title. 

So did the professionals who evaluate big league defense, and nominate top candidates at each position on ballots for Gold Glove Awards (which included all three members of the Boston starting outfield in '18). MLB managers and coaches thought Beni was pretty solid in 2021 when they actually awarded him a GG.

Rawlings recently made the award less subjective by considering some metrics in determining nominees.

https://easton.rawlings.com/gold-glove-criteria.html#:~:text=SABR Defensive Index,No fuss%2C no hassle.

 

 

He didn't deserve that GG, not that GG's mean a whole lot anyway. 

[Hitch]

8 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I definitely thought Benintendi was a solid leftfielder the last time the Red Sox won a title. 

So did the professionals who evaluate big league defense, and nominate top candidates at each position on ballots for Gold Glove Awards (which included all three members of the Boston starting outfield in '18). MLB managers and coaches thought Beni was pretty solid in 2021 when they actually awarded him a GG.

Rawlings recently made the award less subjective by considering some metrics in determining nominees.

https://easton.rawlings.com/gold-glove-criteria.html#:~:text=SABR Defensive Index,No fuss%2C no hassle.

 

 

Beni was great in '18 and certainly not just for one catch. His defence has left much to be desired in other years in fairness, but we weren't comparing his other years. 

That '18 outfield was fantastic. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

17 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He didn't deserve that GG, not that GG's mean a whole lot anyway. 

I don't know if he did, but the majority of 98 AL managers and coaches who voted thought he did.

[Old Red]

59 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I think Rafaela could eventually be as good or better than peak JBJ. He's probably as good as pre-prime JBJ.

Beni made one decent catch in 2018 and everyone thinks he was a solid OFer. The catch he made was IMPORTANT, but it was a catch that is made on a almost nightly basis in MLB. 

Beni is basically Yoshida out there now.

2024 -7 OAA 5th percentile, -5 Arm Value 1st percentile

2023 -11 OAA 2nd percentile, -4 Arm Value 2nd percentile

His OAA has been 0 or negative every season except for 2018. 

I don’t think most observers have just called the catch only decent, and certainly the circumstances the catch was made is not out there on a nightly basis either.

[Bellhorn04]

Bregman hit that ball right on the button.  

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Hitch said:

These things are subjective of course, but I don't believe Beni was overrated (at least nowhere near to the extreme you seem to), even if Duran is the better all round fielder. Betts is by some distance better than Abreu and JBJ was one of the best we've ever seen at it. I love Rafaela and am higher on him than most, if not all judging by this post season discussion, but he is not in JBJ's league until he proves it. And he can only do that given time. So for now, given the choice, I take '18 and don't spend more than half a second wasting time on the decision. 

It'll be fun to see how I feel about it in a year or two. 

I don't think I'm extreme on Beni. It's more about being super high on Duran's D.

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I don’t think most observers have just called the catch only decent, and certainly the circumstances the catch was made is not out there on a nightly basis either.

I'm better than most observers, obviously.

[mvp 78]

I thought this was important to share considering Davy's standing here:

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

5 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Bregman hit that ball right on the button.  

I've liked him ever since, because he swung at the first pitch, and saved me from having a heart attack. Kimbrel had walked the bases loaded, and I couldn't take another full count.

[Old Red]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I'm better than most observers, obviously.

🙈🤭🙈.

[mvp 78]

This is the last I'll mention about THAT catch. In the aftermath of the play, not one poster bothered to even mention the catch. Nobody even mentions Beni by name. I think it's a catch that became more notable as it was replayed over and over again. In the moment, an important play, but not a difficult one. 

https://talksox.com/forums/topic/86767-1018-alcs-game-5/page/31/

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

20 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

This is the last I'll mention about THAT catch. In the aftermath of the play, not one poster bothered to even mention the catch. Nobody even mentions Beni by name. I think it's a catch that became more notable as it was replayed over and over again. In the moment, an important play, but not a difficult one. 

https://talksox.com/forums/topic/86767-1018-alcs-game-5/page/31/

I wasn't on board then... but was whooping so loud I woke the whole family, and the dogs barked for 10 minutes at a phantom burglar. 

The reason it was a great moment in Boston history is that Craig Kimbrel was about to blow the entire season for the best Red Sox team ever. We all know if that ball bounces to the fence for a walkoff, the Astros were winning the pennant the next day.

When asked about that last at bat at his Red Sox intro this winter, Bregman said, "I thought we won the game..."

The cheers heard all over New England and Red Sox Nation that night weren't congratulatory for the most difficult catch of all-time, but for real relief -- for saving our hearts and souls!

[Bellhorn04]

40 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

This is the last I'll mention about THAT catch. In the aftermath of the play, not one poster bothered to even mention the catch. Nobody even mentions Beni by name. I think it's a catch that became more notable as it was replayed over and over again. In the moment, an important play, but not a difficult one. 

https://talksox.com/forums/topic/86767-1018-alcs-game-5/page/31/

Now check Game 4?

[mvp 78]

11 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Now check Game 4?

No!

[moonslav59]

Yanks losses from the 2024 team:

Soto .989 OPS and 713 PAs (most on team)

Torres .709 OPS in 665 PAs (4th most)

Verdugo (.647 in 621 PAs) , Trevino (.642 in 234) , Rizzo (.637 in 375) , Berti (.661 in 74)

Cole (IL) 3.41 in 95 IP

Gil (IL) 3.50 in 152 IP

Cortes 3.77 in 174 IP

Holmes 3.14 w 30 svs in 63 IP

Kahnle 2.11 in 43 IP & Poteet 2.22 in 24 IP

Added:

Fried, D Williams, Bellinger, Goldschmidt, F Cruz, A Jackson, Carrasco

Projected rotation: Fried, Rodon, Stroman, Warren, Carrasco w Devin Williams as the new closer

Line-up:

1. Austin Wells C

2. Judge RF

3. Bellinger CF

4. Goldschmidt 1B

5. Chisholm 2B

6. Volpe SS

7. Dominguez LF

8. Ben Rice DH

9. O Cabrera 3B

Bench: LeMahieu, O Peraza, T grisham,  Alex Jackson (C)

 

[mvp 78]

Without Judge, the Yankees would be last place in this division. I hope to see them below .500 some year, but it's probably not going to be 2025.

[Cameron Tran]

10 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Without Judge, the Yankees would be last place in this division. I hope to see them below .500 some year, but it's probably not going to be 2025.

If Judge gets hurt and has an injury filled season like 2023 this years team is finished. Could sell guys like Williams (contract year) or Bellinger (2 years left) at the dealine

[Nick]

So we dodged a bullet NOT signing Jordan Montgomery. He had a horrendous year for Arizona and now he's out for the year with Tommy John surgery.

Jordan had exercised his option to play for the Diamondbacks in 2025 for $22,500,000.

If you recall he was a last minute signee near the end of spring training last year. Some though we had chance due to the fact that his wife doing her internship in Boston (?).

He would be a perfect pickup for the Red Sox in 2026. You know, pay him low salary so he can continue to rehab and attach an option for $20M for 2027. That's what we do, isn't it?

 

 

[mvp 78]

15 minutes ago, Cameron Tran said:

If Judge gets hurt and has an injury filled season like 2023 this years team is finished. Could sell guys like Williams (contract year) or Bellinger (2 years left) at the dealine

What's the market for Bellinger? I can't imagine it's very high.

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, Nick said:

He would be a perfect pickup for the Red Sox in 2026. You know, pay him low salary so he can continue to rehab and attach an option for $20M for 2027. That's what we do, isn't it?

Please, no more...