Who should start at second base on opening day?

[Cameron Tran]

  With Rafael Devers recently putting out the fire on the "third base is mine" debacle, a new hole has opened up at second base for the Red Sox. When Alex Bregman signed with the Red Sox, many suspected he would start at second with Devers making a hard claim for the hot corner. But a delayed start and nagging shoulders mean it looks like Devers has ceded the position and agreed to see some time at DH. This leaves the only hole in the lineup at second base. 

    Last season, Enmanuel Valdez led the team at WAR for second basemen, with a measly -.6 Wins Above Replacement. With Valdez no longer on the roster, the Red Sox have no one rostered who played more than 40 games at the big league level at second base last season. The battle seems to be down to just 3 players, that being Vaughn Grissom, David Hamilton, and Kristian Campbell.

    Coming into camp, Campbell was an early favorite to crack the big league roster in some way. MLB.com's #7 Overall prospect, Campbell was excellent across three minor league levels last year, with a .330/.439/.558 season, including 4 homeruns in 19 AAA games to end the year. So far this spring though, Campbell has struggled to a .167 batting average and 12 strikeouts to just 5 walks in 13 spring training games. It would now seem that Campbell, who has only 70 AAA plate appearances to his name, will, and should, start the year in AAA. 

    That leaves Hamilton and Grissom as the 2 main candidates. Both saw time at second base last season, each starting between 30 and 40 games at the position, but Hamilton was clearly the better players. In 98 games Hamilton hit .248/.303/.395 while adding 32 stolen bases. Hamilton looked poised to finish the year strong after hitting 3 homeruns in his first 19 games in August before a finger fracture ended his year prematurely. Hamilton's ceiling at the plate is likely that of a league average hitter, his 92 WRC+ last year was a welcome surprise, but his ability on the base paths, his sprint-speed ranked in the 94th percentile, should earn him a spot as a utility player for Alex Cora. Hamilton also showed strong defense at second base, with 3 OAA.

    Comparing that to what we saw out of an injury stricken 2024 from Grissom, Hamilton looks like the clear winner. But Grissom has been turning heads in camp this year. After reportedly losing 15 pounds to the flu last April, Grissom struggled to a .190 batting average in just 31 big league games. But, due to the weight loss and the myriad of injuries Grissom dealt with, Cora was quick to write off Grissom's 2024 campaign as a mulligan. In spring training action, Grissom has yet to prove him right, hitting just .200 in 34 plate appearances, but a noticeable increase in muscle and confidence from the still 24 year old has helped his case greatly. 

    Right now, the Red Sox strongest lineup, in my opinion, features David Hamilton at second base with Vaughn Grissom coming off the bench. Ideally, Campbell will tear up AAA and force and early call-up, but as far as opening day goes, the spot seems to be Hamilton's to lose. 

[Bellhorn04]

Looks like Hamilton all the way at this point.  This guy refuses to take a back seat.

15 games, .900 OPS, 2 dingers, 5 SB's, 7 walks vs. only 6 K's.  Only spring games but great numbers. 

 

[Jasonbay44]

23 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Looks like Hamilton all the way at this point.  This guy refuses to take a back seat.

15 games, .900 OPS, 2 dingers, 5 SB's, 7 walks vs. only 6 K's.  Only spring games but great numbers. 

 

I really like Hamiltons game. He is fine defensively at 2nd and he causes havoc on offense. I don’t think this is like last season where we get absolutely horrendous production in the first half at 2B like we did from Grissom and Valdez.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Jasonbay44 said:

I really like Hamiltons game. He is fine defensively at 2nd and he causes havoc on offense. I don’t think this is like last season where we get absolutely horrendous production in the first half at 2B like we did from Grissom and Valdez.

I aree, and I think Romy offers a nice platoon for DHam at 2B, but I'd still like to see Campbell at 2B and Anthony in RF.

[Bellhorn04]

14 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I aree, and I think Romy offers a nice platoon for DHam at 2B, but I'd still like to see Campbell at 2B and Anthony in RF.

Do you think Campbell is a better player than Hamilton right now?

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Do you think Campbell is a better player than Hamilton right now?

If I had to answer, I'd say yes, but it's based on 100% speculation, and I think I know more about DHam's abilities than KC's. I like DHam at 2B vs RHP. He's a plus defender, there, which alone is a huge step up over the majority of our 2Bmen from 23-24. A .720 OPS is pretty good, in today's game, but his speed turns him into a bigger plus on offense.I'm more okay starting the season with a DHam-Romy platoon at 2B than T Thompson in RF or Yoshida in LF (assuming he can throw 100 ft.)

Bases on what I know, and I have only looked at ST'ing box scores, I'd give KC a slight edge, based on his upside potential. I had hopes he might be equal to DHam on 2B D, but I'm not sure on that one.

On Anthony, I think he is MLB ready, yesterday. I'm doubt he will outhit Duran or Abreu vs RHPs and Ref vs LHPs, so it comes down to Anthony vs Rafaela. Rafaela has the edge on D, and I have not given up on his offense, but as of now, I think Anthony would easily outhit him in 2025, with the same amount of playing time (near FT.) that is all speculation, of course, but with Abreu just getting started in ST'ing, I'd lean towards having Anthony on the 26 ahead of KC.

Things can change in 2 weeks.

[Bellhorn04]

SSSS

Hamilton 44 PA's 270/386/514

Campbell 38 PA's 152/263/182   

[notin]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

SSSS

Hamilton 44 PA's 270/386/514

Campbell 38 PA's 152/263/182   

Not only a small sample size, but there is more to being a 2b than just hitting…

[Bellhorn04]

8 minutes ago, notin said:

Not only a small sample size, but there is more to being a 2b than just hitting…

Hamilton was a solid plus defender at 2B last year, Cap'n.

[moonslav59]

20 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

SSSS

Hamilton 44 PA's 270/386/514

Campbell 38 PA's 152/263/182   

Does this mean your choice is DHam?

(I'm fine with the choice of a DHam-Romy platoon at 2B. I've said that all winter.

I also think Campbell is a better choice, based on upside potential and speculation.)

[notin]

26 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Does this mean your choice is DHam?

(I'm fine with the choice of a DHam-Romy platoon at 2B. I've said that all winter.

I also think Campbell is a better choice, based on upside potential and speculation.)

The question is very limited - opening day.  I wouldn’t look too deep into it.

Last year, our opening day second basemen were Enmanuel Valdez and Pablo Reyes.  Neither won the job based on their upside or potential…

[Bellhorn04]

46 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Does this mean your choice is DHam?

(I'm fine with the choice of a DHam-Romy platoon at 2B. I've said that all winter.

I also think Campbell is a better choice, based on upside potential and speculation.)

I think as of today DHam is a runaway choice as Opening Day starter.  

He had a 2.6 bWAR last year in half a season and he looks great in ST games.  He's continuing to show some power, a solid plate approach and of course his speed is a given. 

Not sure how he wouldn't be. 

[notin]

19 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I think as of today DHam is a runaway choice as Opening Day starter.  

He had a 2.6 bWAR last year in half a season and he looks great in ST games.  He's continuing to show some power, a solid plate approach and of course his speed is a given. 

Not sure how he wouldn't be. 

He is for now.

Long term I’m not convinced he’s much more than a utility infielder, but I also don’t think he’s a long term fixture at 2b.  
 

At some point, I think the Sox might want Grissom to make himself known.  But for now, he’s probably heading to Worcester for a bit. Where he and Campbell play is TBD…

[Bellhorn04]

7 minutes ago, notin said:

He is for now.

Long term I’m not convinced he’s much more than a utility infielder, but I also don’t think he’s a long term fixture at 2b.

Maybe he's being underestimated.  Time will tell.  But for now I'm on the DHam train.  Fields the position well, great speed, and he can hit it out of the park.  Seems like a nice combo to me.

[notin]

21 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Maybe he's being underestimated.  Time will tell.  But for now I'm on the DHam train.  Fields the position well, great speed, and he can hit it out of the park.  Seems like a nice combo to me.

He’s not.

Youre overestimating him.  
 

Last year, he had a .697 OPS and a 92 OPS+, lower than Dominic Smith.  He’s did only have a .316 BABIP, which, with his speed, could be improved upon.  But while he had his moments, he also had long stretches of not hitting.  And his 25% K rate / 7% BB rate leaves lots of room for improvement.  Especially that BB rate, since it was usually double that in the minors.

 

He’s not useless.  But he is a role player….

[Old Red]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I think as of today DHam is a runaway choice as Opening Day starter.  

He had a 2.6 bWAR last year in half a season and he looks great in ST games.  He's continuing to show some power, a solid plate approach and of course his speed is a given. 

Not sure how he wouldn't be. 

Runaway choice? If he wins the job on ST alone it will be more by default considering what KC, and Grissom has done so far. Nothing great, but better than the other two. 

[Old Red]

44 minutes ago, notin said:

He is for now.

Long term I’m not convinced he’s much more than a utility infielder, but I also don’t think he’s a long term fixture at 2b.  
 

At some point, I think the Sox might want Grissom to make himself known.  But for now, he’s probably heading to Worcester for a bit. Where he and Campbell play is TBD…

If Grissom can’t win the job this year he’d be running out of chances IMO. Mayer getting closer, and if he takes over SS when he does Story could slide over. Where KC ends up is another question.

[Bellhorn04]

46 minutes ago, notin said:

He’s not.

Youre overestimating him.  
 

Last year, he had a .697 OPS and a 92 OPS+, lower than Dominic Smith.  He’s did only have a .316 BABIP, which, with his speed, could be improved upon.  But while he had his moments, he also had long stretches of not hitting.  And his 25% K rate / 7% BB rate leaves lots of room for improvement.  Especially that BB rate, since it was usually double that in the minors.

 

He’s not useless.  But he is a role player….

A 2.6 bWAR and 1.7 fWAR in the equivalent of half a season seems pretty good. 

And just about every player has stretches of not hitting.  The entire Sox offense didn't hit the last 6 weeks of the season.

 

[Bellhorn04]

40 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Runaway choice? If he wins the job on ST alone it will be more by default considering what KC, and Grissom has done so far. Nothing great, but better than the other two. 

Obviously very small samples, but a .900 OPS is pretty good.  KC and Grissom have done zero at the plate.

Good small samples are still better than bad small samples.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

If Grissom can’t win the job this year he’d be running out of chances IMO. Mayer getting closer, and if he takes over SS when he does Story could slide over. Where KC ends up is another question.

This may be the post I agree with the most... though I don't think the Red Sox do.

From what I've seen on defense -- all three candidates look awkward or clunky at second base. 

That's the main reason right now that Campbell won't open in Boston; he's the Minor League HITTER of the year, but needs to show improvement at the keystone sack. The Sox really need to assign a top infield coach to KC, if they really value his future as a regular heart-of-the-order bat. 

The ST offensive stats don't matter -- just like when Anthony's stats didn't when he was promoted in A ball -- and the job would already be Campbell's if he was smooth on turning DPs.

[dgalehouse]

Sox fans are anxious to see the " Big 3" play in Fenway. And that is understandable considering all of the hype. But sometimes you have to have a little patience.  

[vjcsmoke]

There are growing indications that Campbell will be our starting 2nd baseman. He's had 3 starts next to Story in a row.

Bregman I think will play 3B and Devers has grudgingly accepted the DH role.

Defensively that probably gives us our best infield with Casas at 1B.

Article predicting Campbell as 2b starter: Red Sox 22-Year-Old Predicted To Crack Opening Day Roster Despite Shaky Spring

[vegasbob]

What exactly is accomplished by pushing Campbell into the position in March/April ?   To prove he is not ready on both aspects of hitting and fielding. 

Cedanne Rafaela is already being carried   due to his exceptional fielding but not his bat , and his upside.

Using " veteran" Hamilton to open the year and see where all of these guys are in late April would be the way to go, IMO. In the long run, David H. is most likely a utility/bench player.   But at least wait until the weather turns warm to get Campbell elevated to the starting nine.   If he does well in extended ST and then at Woo Sox , bring him up.  If he doesn't, then he would have done worse in Boston . 

[vegasbob]

BTW, with the Minnesota game today, there are only 8 more ST games, including SS games tomorrow.  The 2 games in Monterrey , MX are more likely to get players killed or stomach impaired than to polish the edges of the lineup.

AC needs to make some decisions later this week and set the lineup for the opening 4 games with the Rangers in Arlington.

[moonslav59]

11 hours ago, notin said:

The question is very limited - opening day.  I wouldn’t look too deep into it.

Last year, our opening day second basemen were Enmanuel Valdez and Pablo Reyes.  Neither won the job based on their upside or potential…

While true, EValdez had more 2B PAs than anyone else in 2024 and by almost double the next guy- DHam.

202 EValdlez

118 DHam

109 Grissom

56 Romy, 42 Sogard, 39 Westbrook

17 Rafaela, 16 Reyes, 11 Gaspar, 8 Wong, 3 Short

I am pretty sure DHam starts the season at 2B vs RHPs, only. I think Romy plays vs lefties.

My gut tells me Campbell is better, but I'm fine with waiting on him.

 

[moonslav59]

10 hours ago, Old Red said:

Runaway choice? If he wins the job on ST alone it will be more by default considering what KC, and Grissom has done so far. Nothing great, but better than the other two. 

Well, DHam has done pretty well in ST, while others struggled.

Not only does he have an .837 OPS, he has 5 SBs in just 40 PAs.

He's looked pretty good.

[moonslav59]

10 hours ago, notin said:

He’s not.

Youre overestimating him.  
 

Last year, he had a .697 OPS and a 92 OPS+, lower than Dominic Smith.  He’s did only have a .316 BABIP, which, with his speed, could be improved upon.  But while he had his moments, he also had long stretches of not hitting.  And his 25% K rate / 7% BB rate leaves lots of room for improvement.  Especially that BB rate, since it was usually double that in the minors.

 

He’s not useless.  But he is a role player….

Look at the splits and defense at 2B. He's a decent 2Bman vs RHPs. He should not start vs LHPs.

I guess you can call a platoon player a "role player," but he's the long side platoon and that is usually called the starter.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Why do posters claim every preseason that good Spring Training batting statistics are worthless, but bad stats show that someone is not ready or failed to win a job?

Cora keeps telling everyone what matters most to him is defense -- especially turning double plays that need to be made. 

The guy who looks the most reliable to AC at the pivot will get the most playing time.

[mvp 78]

23 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

SSSS

Hamilton 44 PA's 270/386/514

Campbell 38 PA's 152/263/182   

Compare their career AAA numbers. 

[mvp 78]

Since de Grom is probably TEX Opening Day starter, I think the 2b will be Hamilton. I don't think he'll be the permanent 2b for '25, but he'll get most of the reps early on and that's fine.