Article: Steamer’s New Splits Projections for the Red Sox Aren’t Pretty

[Bellhorn04]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

C'mon man... I still think this team is an 85 win ceiling and am not high on it. Max wasn't pitching in this rotation. Dude's arm is almost cooked. He lost velo last year and it's only going to trend downward. 

The real point to me is that we're watching the Jays make some actual moves to get better while we haven't done anything of note since signing Buehler and trading for Narvaez.

In my bitterness toward our front office I'm enjoying the fact that the Jays have passed us in the projections.  

We're Number Nine (in the AL)!

 

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The real point to me is that we're watching the Jays make some actual moves to get better while we haven't done anything of note since signing Buehler and trading for Narvaez.

In my bitterness toward our front office I'm enjoying the fact that the Jays have passed us in the projections.  

We're Number Nine (in the AL)!

Jays tend to have better offseasons than the Sox and do nothing with it. I'm not worried about them. Sox have definitely made their bed though. 

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

Jays tend to have better offseasons than the Sox and do nothing with it. I'm not worried about them. Sox have definitely made their bed though. 

The Jays were much better than us in 2022 and 2023.

Of course the Jays aren't the worry.  The fact that the Sox projections are this bad is the worry.

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The Jays were much better than us in 2022 and 2023.

Of course the Jays aren't the worry.  The fact that the Sox projections are this bad is the worry.

The Sox were in a big tailspin in those two years. I think the Sox are in a different trajectory right now. Maybe the Jays are catching up and trying to do one more year to win back Vlad? IDK. 

I think a lot of the Sox guys beat out their projections. That's just me looking at individual projections and seeing them skew awkwardly towards Duran's first callup or expecting Abreu to be a WORSE defender somehow. Do I think the Sox will be better than middling? Probably not, but I think they'll be a little better than last year. 

[Bellhorn04]

8 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The Sox were in a big tailspin in those two years. I think the Sox are in a different trajectory right now. Maybe the Jays are catching up and trying to do one more year to win back Vlad? IDK. 

I think a lot of the Sox guys beat out their projections. That's just me looking at individual projections and seeing them skew awkwardly towards Duran's first callup or expecting Abreu to be a WORSE defender somehow. Do I think the Sox will be better than middling? Probably not, but I think they'll be a little better than last year. 

That's all fair.  I just think being a little better than last year represents another punt by the cheapskates.

It's like the real plan is "keep punting, keep selling hope to the dummies, keep turning a big profit." 

 

[mvp 78]

27 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

That's all fair.  I just think being a little better than last year represents another punt by the cheapskates.

It's like the real plan is "keep punting, keep selling hope to the dummies, keep turning a big profit." 

 

Oh, I already said that this year was a punt until 2026 when they'd have Anthony and Campbell for 100% of the time plus other additions. This seems like a trial balloon year. See what sticks. 

[moonslav59]

57 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Copying harmony's post from another thread:

With Max Scherzer reportedly signing with Toronto, the Blue Jays have slipped past the Red Sox in FanGraphs' projected 2025 WAR:

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=14

The Red Sox rank ninth in the American League in projected 2025 WAR (and a close last in the AL East).

That's what the objective data is saying. 

One set of data, yes.

[Bellhorn04]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

One set of data, yes.

Do you have more favorable alternative data?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

22 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Oh, I already said that this year was a punt until 2026 when they'd have Anthony and Campbell for 100% of the time plus other additions. This seems like a trial balloon year. See what sticks. 

This is why they won't play either full time this season. If the Sox really want to wait til next year, they can't risk exposing their saviors to the dreaded Sophomore Jinx!

[moonslav59]

30 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Do you have more favorable alternative data?

I look at where we finished in 2024, who TOR and BOS lost from 2024 and who we added, including returning healthy players that missed a lot of time in '24.

TOR had a nice winter, but I think ours is better. Look at Crochet's data. Buehler's. Gio, Hendriks, Chapman and returning guys like Whitlock, Casas, Devers and even Story.

There are a lot of services that make projections based on data. I have only seen one come up with team totals, so far. Are there others that show TOR better than us?

[Bellhorn04]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I look at where we finished in 2024, who TOR and BOS lost from 2024 and who we added, including returning healthy players that missed a lot of time in '24.

TOR had a nice winter, but I think ours is better. Look at Crochet's data. Buehler's. Gio, Hendriks, Chapman and returning guys like Whitlock, Casas, Devers and even Story.

There are a lot of services that make projections based on data. I have only seen one come up with team totals, so far. Are there others that show TOR better than us?

Here's a composite projection based on 4 different sources.  I can't attest to the accuracy of its math.

https://www.rotochamp.com/baseball/ProjectedStandings.aspx

Yankees 91

Jays 87

Rays 86

Orioles 86

Red Sox 82

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Here's a composite projection based on 4 different sources.  I can't attest to the accuracy of its math.

https://www.rotochamp.com/baseball/ProjectedStandings.aspx

Yankees 91

Jays 87

Rays 86

Orioles 86

Red Sox 82

Baseball Prospectus and Daveport have us ahead of TOR and TBR. Fangraphs has us 0.1 behind TBR in team WAR.

Not all data has TOR better.

[Bellhorn04]

20 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Baseball Prospectus and Daveport have us ahead of TOR and TBR. Fangraphs has us 0.1 behind TBR in team WAR.

Not all data has TOR better.

We're picking over fine points.  I'm not saying Toronto has made a big leap.

To me it's pretty grim news to see projections that the Red Sox, rather than ascending in the East, might actually have a good chance of returning to the basement.

Basically the feeling out there, just about unanimously, is that the Sox have stayed mediocre.  Which is crazy, with the payroll room they have.  We've got teams spending $300 million and the Sox are treating the first tax line as a line made of electrified barbed wire.  

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

We're picking over fine points.  I'm not saying Toronto has made a big leap.

To me it's pretty grim news to see projections that the Red Sox, rather than ascending in the East, might actually have a good chance of returning to the basement.

Basically the feeling out there, just about unanimously, is that the Sox have stayed mediocre.  Which is crazy, with the payroll room they have.  We've got teams spending $300 million and the Sox are treating the first tax line as a line made of  electrified barbed wire.  

It would be kind of funny if they fell back to last place after Sam's 90-95 win comment. 

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

We're picking over fine points.  I'm not saying Toronto has made a big leap.

To me it's pretty grim news to see projections that the Red Sox, rather than ascending in the East, might actually have a good chance of returning to the basement.

Basically the feeling out there, just about unanimously, is that the Sox have stayed mediocre.  Which is crazy, with the payroll room they have.  We've got teams spending $300 million and the Sox are treating the first tax line as a line made of  electrified barbed wire.  

I'm not happy with the amount of improvement we made, this winter, but I've always been much higher on pitching than most, and I'm stoked about our rotation and starter depth.

I wish we had gotten a lockdown closer and big RHB, but I think we are better.

I'm not hung up on how we ended the season playing poorly. I think our team played better than a .500 team, but the P number say we deserved 81-81.

[jad]

I wish I had a pony ...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

10 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

We've got teams spending $300 million and the Sox are treating the first tax line as a line made of  electrified barbed wire.  

By now we'd all be shocked if the brass even walked across the front office carpet in their sox and then touched a leather couch.

[Bellhorn04]

8 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not hung up on how we ended the season playing poorly. I think our team played better than a .500 team, but the P number say we deserved 81-81.

Right, so how can you say they "played better" than their record?  

[mvp 78]

TOR added 6.4 fWAR with Max, Hoffman, Santander, Garcia and Bettencourt for 32M. Not terrible, but I'm not sure how confident I feel about Max at 2 fWAR. It's also not really a tremendous haul either. 

Crochet alone is projected at 4.8 fWAR. Sox added another 3 fWAR with Buehler, Chapman, et al. 

[Bellhorn04]

My problem with the Jays isn't that they're better than us...

It's that they're spending more than us!  

[mvp 78]

28 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

My problem with the Jays isn't that they're better than us...

It's that they're spending more than us!  

Jays are 5th. Sox are 13th (11th CBT). I'm more concerned about the 13th part than where the Jays stand. On $'s, they are closer to 18th place than 5th place. This will be the 3rd year in a row they are out of the top 10. That hasn't happened in at least 30 years if not longer. 

[moonslav59]

43 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Right, so how can you say they "played better" than their record?  

I said, I think they did. It's an opinion.

We were over .500 for most of the season and got bitten by injuries. I think we were better.

[mvp 78]

Chat, which former Jays player should have played for the Red Sox and why is it Joe Carter? 

[mvp 78]

If Carlos Delgado is on the Red Sox in 2000, do they win the WS? 

[notin]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Here's a composite projection based on 4 different sources.  I can't attest to the accuracy of its math.

https://www.rotochamp.com/baseball/ProjectedStandings.aspx

Yankees 91

Jays 87

Rays 86

Orioles 86

Red Sox 82

I strongly question any math that has this year’s AL East as the first division in MLB history where every team finishes over .500…

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, notin said:

I strongly question any math that has this year’s AL East as the first division in MLB history where every team finishes over .500…

It is more likely now that schedules include more and more out of division games (68% outside division now, 53% the last time the Sox were in the WS). 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

13 minutes ago, notin said:

I strongly question any math that has this year’s AL East as the first division in MLB history where every team finishes over .500…

Especially when the AL Central might have four teams over .600.

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

If Carlos Delgado is on the Red Sox in 2000, do they win the WS? 

If Tom Henke was on the 1986 Red Sox, do they win the World Series?

[notin]

30 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Especially when the AL Central might have four teams over .600.

That projection has one AL Central team over .500 and four AL East teams making the postseason…

[mvp 78]

14 minutes ago, notin said:

If Tom Henke was on the 1986 Red Sox, do they win the World Series?

Henke? We want Eichhorn! Eichhorn! Eichhorn!