Article: It Really Seems Like Trading Triston Casas Is a Foregone Conclusion

[mvp 78]

8 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

3 straight years of mediocrity/suckitude makes it very hard to argue this point!

They made it to .500 last year!!! Give them a little break…

[Old Red]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I would swap Casas for Alonso in a BOS second.

Sounds good, but how much are you going to pay this guy?

[Old Red]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

They made it to .500 last year!!! Give them a little break…

Low bar.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

After 10 years of a 123 OPS+, two years of 104 is a massive reduction in hitting.   And he’s not likely to get better from ages 34-36.

Now Bregman might make more sense.  Sure you’ll need to sign him for 3 years at the end of his deal when he goes into declined.  But at least you get the 4 years upfront when he contributes.  With Arenado, you’re just skipping to those last few unproductive years…

I'm only for trading for Arenado, if they take Yoshida.

I know he has been in decline.

I mentioned he's poised to fall of a cliff.

I just pointed out that 104 is not even below average.

[Larry Cook]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

I would swap Casas for Alonso in a BOS second.

Really???  Why????

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Really???  Why????

Signing Alonso means no signing someone else.

I'd rather sign Scott, and he'll be cheaper.

[mvp 78]

2 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Really???  Why????

Well, Casas would be swapped in a trade and alonso provides balance as a RHB.

[mvp 78]

3 hours ago, Old Red said:

Sounds good, but how much are you going to pay this guy?

Soto’s contract plus $1.

[moonslav59]

23 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Well, Casas would be swapped in a trade and alonso provides balance as a RHB.

From what other teams have been getting for 1Bmen in trade, I don't think it's worth the swap out. 

Are we so sure Alonso will outhit Casas over the next 4 years? I'm not so sure he even outhits him vs LHPs.

[Old Red]

36 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Soto’s contract plus $1.

I’d rather have Vlad at that price.

[moonslav59]

Career:
OPS+ 160 Soto/ Vlad 139

 

OBP/SLG

.421/.532 Soto

.363/.500 Vlad

 

Per 162

.285 35 102 Soto

.288 32 100 Vlad

 

Neither is good on D.

[Larry Cook]

Pitching pitching pitching!!!!! Scott and estevez are just sitting there!  What is bres-slow trying to accomplish 

[harmony]

2 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Pitching pitching pitching!!!!! Scott and estevez are just sitting there!  What is bres-slow trying to accomplish 

With current rosters, FanGraphs projects the Red Sox second in the American League in pitching WAR, 14th in batting WAR and seventh in overall 2025 WAR:

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=3

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

9 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Career:
OPS+ 160 Soto/ Vlad 139

 

OBP/SLG

.421/.532 Soto

.363/.500 Vlad

 

Per 162

.285 35 102 Soto

.288 32 100 Vlad

 

Neither is good on D.

Vlad is a terrible first baseman, he led the majors in errors and would actually downgrade the position in Boston. A few more home runs is not the smart move in any way to improve the club's biggest weakness -- defense.

Tris Casas' career is just beginning. He is articulate and introspective -- which intimidates some people for some reason -- but those traits may also promise dedication to improvement. Casas has something to prove, even if it's making swing adjustments to preserve his core and use the Green Monster more, which we've already seen he can do.

First base is far from the biggest issue on Boston, and the Sox have a young player who is not yet a star or filthy rich like Vlad already is. If fans think Devers isn't worth what he costs, imagine having another one -- only without the cheerful personality...

[Bellhorn04]

Casas can probably improve his defense.  

It's his durability he has little control over.  And that's the scary factor with him right now.

I'm not saying Vlad Jr. is a real possibility, but one thing Vlad Jr. doesn't have is durability issues.  He's missed a handful of games over the last 5 years.   

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

6 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Casas can probably improve his defense.  

It's his durability he has no control over.  And that's the scary factor with him right now.

I'm not saying Vlad Jr. is a real possibility, but one thing Vlad Jr. doesn't have is durability issues.  He's missed a handful of games over the last 5 years.   

Vlad would be an upgrade over anyone with the bat, but could be a disaster in Boston. He's a dog on defense, with attitude issues, and the fans could turn on him in a hurry...

If Henry somehow miraculously changes the spending patterns established the past half decade -- and gives  Vlad -- of all players -- what he wants, the Red Sox could get stuck with the worst contract in team history.

Plus, think of all the young core players the Sox could extend instead, for the same amount of one risky free agent.

[Bellhorn04]

a) I honestly don't know much about Vlad's attitude issues.  

b) I don't expect to ever see him in a Red Sox uniform.

I was just mainly highlighting the durability issue with Casas.

[notin]

12 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Soto’s contract plus $1.

Alonso wants Soto plus $3…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

4 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

a) I honestly don't know much about Vlad's attitude issues.  

b) I don't expect to ever see him in a Red Sox uniform.

I was just mainly highlighting the durability issue with Casas.

Casas' core injury could have long-lasting effects on his career, and may be why a club might want to trade him before he loses all value.

But his potential is also a reason why other teams would be interested -- and why a mid-market team like Boston would want to keep him while he's cheap.

Here's Casas' BA and OPS for the second-half of his rookie year, 2023 at age 23: .317, 1.034.

Compare to Vlad in that same half, same season, when he was 24: .251, .790. 

[notin]

13 hours ago, Old Red said:

I’d rather have Vlad at that price.

Vlad is younger, but they’re closer as hitters than I realized…

[Hugh2]

Arenado over Bregman makes zero sense unless the Cardinals take back Yoshida.

it makes zero sense for St. Louis to trade Arenado and take on Yoshida salary if they’re trying to shed payroll.

just sign Bregman, or stick with what you got and pivot to the bullpen.

[Hugh2]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Alonso wants Soto plus $3…

He’s going to get closer to Dorian Soto money than he is Juan Soto.

[notin]

21 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

He’s going to get closer to Dorian Soto money than he is Juan Soto.

But you’re ok with the $3?

[notin]

14 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Well, Casas would be swapped in a trade and alonso provides balance as a RHB.

I think part of the reason Casas is so available right now is the Sox want to clear the way at 1b for another player already on the Red Sox.  I don’t think they want to go get another 1b.  It will be Casas or Devers in 2025 (barring injuries)..

[Hugh2]

46 minutes ago, notin said:

But you’re ok with the $3?

I’d pay $3 dollars for Alonso sure

[moonslav59]

12 hours ago, harmony said:

With current rosters, FanGraphs projects the Red Sox second in the American League in pitching WAR, 14th in batting WAR and seventh in overall 2025 WAR:

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=3

Again, it is not 14th in batting. It's 14th in everyday player fWAR, which combines batting with defense.

I don't have an issue with being ranked 7th. I might have us 5th or 6th with the potential to be 3rd or 4th, but other teams near us also have potential to do better (or worse.)

[moonslav59]

The real roster blocker is Yoshida. If he is gone, it frees up a lot of roster flexibility and makes room for a number of options, internal or external.

Bregman or Campbell at 3B with Devers/Casas sharing 1B and DH.

Campbell (or Mayer) at 3B ends the future logjam at middle IF between Story, Mayer and Campbell.

Yoshida does not affect the possible OF logjam, but with an Abreu-Rafaela platoon, there never was one. Once Refsnyder retires, there is nobody forced to the bench who should be in the line-up. LF: Duran, CF: Anthony-Rafaela, RF: Abreu-Anthony, or just go with Anthony as the FT CF'er and platoon Abreu and Rafaela in RF.

Look at the flex on this roster in 2026:

C: Wong (2B/1B) and Narvaez

1B/DH: Devers & Casas

2B: Mayer (SS)

SS: Story (2B)

3B: Campbell (2B/OF)

LF: Duran (CF)

CF: Anthony (RF)

RF: Abreu (CF/LF) & Rafaela (CF, 2B, SS)

Bench: (Rafaela or Abreu) DHam (2B, SS, OF) Romy (SS, 2B, 3B, 1B, OF) Grissom (2B, 3B, SS)

This roster looks very nice, although a big chunk of it is based on speculation and what ifs. 

If Devers can defend 1B better than Casas, we could see a nice gain there. If not, having Devers and Casas share 1B and DH could help them stay fresher/healthier and allow them to play more games by "resting" at DH rather than sitting out 5-8 games a year as off days.

While Campbell's defense is somewhat unknown, it is more because he has not been handed one position to master, yet, and not out of some sort of lack of defensive skills. He should end up being fine, wherever he ends up. Mayer and Anthony are both plusses on D.

I'm very excited about our future with these three prospects, and I fully realize 1 or maybe even 2 could end up as let-downs. We seem to have capable depth, if that happens. Between DHam, Grissom, Romy, Romero and Arias, we should be able to make up for a flop by Mayer or Campbell. If Anthony flops, we might have to go with Abreu playing FT, not platoon and Rafaela FT, too, although adding a platoon OF bat is usually in expensive and easy to do. if needed. (Maybe Ref plays one more year to delay the need for a RHB OF'er.)

 

 

[harmony]

54 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Again, it is not 14th in batting. It's 14th in everyday player fWAR, which combines batting with defense.

I don't have an issue with being ranked 7th. I might have us 5th or 6th with the potential to be 3rd or 4th, but other teams near us also have potential to do better (or worse.)

Indeed FanGraphs mislabels that column as "Bat" instead of "position players" which would include defensive value.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, harmony said:

Indeed FanGraphs mislabels that column as "Bat" instead of "position players" which would include defensive value.

When you figure we are a bottom 5 defensive team, you have to think that is a significant factor in dropping that ranking to 14th.

We might be 14th or 15th in defense and somewhere between 8th and 11th on "batting" plus "baserunning."

The Sox have a lot of younger everyday players, as well as our share or more in injury-prone players that make projections difficult. It's hard as hell to project Story's value, even if you know he'll be 100% healthy. Devers was on pace for a career high OPS, then  got hurt and finished with his 4th best, although it was his 2nd best OPS+. They dropped him 22 points, despite being in his peak prime year in 2025. Duran's score is puzzling to many people, not just Sox fans. Granted, Wong, Abreu, Rafaela and DHam have to be scored with caution, To me, casas is all about health. He's gonna rake, if healthy, and he will suck again on D.

Projecting the impact of our 3 top prospects is all but impossible. I think I can safely say, no MLB team has the ability to more greatly outperform these projections than Boston.

I like our offense. I might rank (AL only) our areas as such:

#1-2 Rotation

#9-10 Pen

#13-14 Defense

#5-6 Offense

#2-3 Baserunning

Last year, we finished T3rd in OPS and T5th in wRC+. We lost O'Neill (.847 in 473 PAs,) but we also lost...

.706 in 278 PAs Dom Smith (10th in PAs)

.633 in 223 PAs (12th) EValdez (most PAs at 2B)

in 158 PAs (14th) McGuire

in 96 PAs (17th) Jansen

in 93 PAs (18th) Dalbec

in 75 PAs (20th) Cooper

Just Smith & EValdez had more PAs than  O'Neill. The other all combined just about equalled the lost PAs of O'Neill. I'm guessing O'Neill represents about 30% of the PAs we lost.

Of course, it matters just how many more PAs Casas gets, otherwise, it's Romy or Wong replacing DSmith-Dalbec-Cooper. How well DHam-Grissom-Rony do at 2B matters a lot on how much they can improve on EValdez, Reyes (.451 in 64 PAs) Campbell offers a lot of upside potential, but I have to think a DHam-Grissom/Romy platoon at 2B can greatly improve on the .533 god-awful 2024 2B OPS. We could easily beat that by 200 points and more than make up for the loss of O'Neill at just one slot. Our 1B OPS was .734. I think we can safely project Casas can beat that by 100 points, if healthy. We might lose 100 points in RF (.888 to .788 w Abreu & Rafaela.) Our DH hit .765. It's hard to project great improvement, there. 3B was .774. I can see adding 75-125 points there. SS at .761 might stay even. We may drop at C (.723.) LF (.768) and CF (.729) may end up close to that, depending on Duran and Rafaela's progress

 

[mvp 78]

7 hours ago, notin said:

I think part of the reason Casas is so available right now is the Sox want to clear the way at 1b for another player already on the Red Sox.  I don’t think they want to go get another 1b.  It will be Casas or Devers in 2025 (barring injuries)..

They also realize they won’t be able to extend him longterm. May as well trade him when he has value and you have a need.