Article: Red Sox Swing and Miss in Roki Sasaki Sweepstakes

[Hugh2]

53 minutes ago, Zippo102 said:

Who knows what he is thinking and don't care. I'm just pointing out Red Sox are cheap.

https://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/3107553

 

I 100% agree, I just don’t buy this false narrative that he’s turned off of Boston because of ownerships wallet.  That’s a silly conjecture.

that aside, ownership is cheap and pinches Pennie’s and we should all want that to stop.

[Hugh2]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Not being snarky, but does anyone know who the other teams are?

Well I certainly don’t

[Nick]

Quick question.

Suppose the Sox come to quick 1 year deals with its arbitration eligible players.

Can the extension signed AFTER March 2025 be effective for 2026 and beyond for the luxury tax purpose payroll calculation or does the 1 year deal for 2025 be combined with the extended amount to come up with a  'new' luxury tax payroll for 2025 season?

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, Nick said:

Quick question.

Suppose the Sox come to quick 1 year deals with its arbitration eligible players.

Can the extension signed AFTER March 2025 be effective for 2026 and beyond for the luxury tax purpose payroll calculation or does the 1 year deal for 2025 be combined with the extended amount to come up with a  'new' luxury tax payroll for 2025 season?

It'll be treated like Devers' extension where the lux tax hit will begin the following season. Raffy signed in Jan '23, but the luxury tax didn't increase until '24.

[mvp 78]

From MLBTradeRumors at the time of the extension: 

The Red Sox have formally announced the contract as a 10-year extension with Devers, spanning the 2024-33 seasons. As reported last night, that keeps his 2023 luxury tax hit at $17.5MM (the sum of the one-year deal he agreed to in order to avoid arbitration), while the $31.35MM luxury hit on his extension will go into effect in 2024.

[Nick]

A way too early look at Red Sox ZiPS Projections

Edited January 8, 2025 by Nick
additional comment

[Nick]

23 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

It'll be treated like Devers' extension where the lux tax hit will begin the following season. Raffy signed in Jan '23, but the luxury tax didn't increase until '24.

thx

[Hugh2]

58 minutes ago, Nick said:

Quick question.

Suppose the Sox come to quick 1 year deals with its arbitration eligible players.

Can the extension signed AFTER March 2025 be effective for 2026 and beyond for the luxury tax purpose payroll calculation or does the 1 year deal for 2025 be combined with the extended amount to come up with a  'new' luxury tax payroll for 2025 season?

It can really be both.  The extension can kick in next year or the current year. Even if it was signed after March 2025 it would have no effect on 2025 for tax purposes UNLESS the deal bought out his 2025 salary.  I'm not sure if a team has ever signed a guy mid season to deal where the money went back retroactively, but for accounting purposes for LT that's the year it would effect. 

[Hugh2]

55 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

It'll be treated like Devers' extension where the lux tax hit will begin the following season. Raffy signed in Jan '23, but the luxury tax didn't increase until '24.

Exactly, it was effectively two different deals. 

[moonslav59]

If we don't add anymore outside contracts, it might make sense to sign extensions, now, that include 2025, so the tax number would be lower for all years.

Take Crochet: he might make $3-4M in arb for 2025 (MLBTR has $3M) and more in his last year (maybe $10-20M.) Let's say he would make $24M/2 for 2025 and 2026, and an extension was agreed upon at $28M x 4 years from 2027-2030 ($112/4). Our AAV could be $4M, $20M then $28M for the next 4 years, if it's structure to begin in 2027.

Or, we could start it in 2025 as a contract of $136/6 (the same as the other two combined,) but the AAV would be evened out (More in 2025 & 2026, but less afterwards.) Te tax hit would be $22.7 x 6. If we stay under with that total, we could, in theory, have more to spend starting in 2027.

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

If we don't add anymore outside contracts, it might make sense to sign extensions, now, that include 2025, so the tax number would be lower for all years.

Take Crochet: he might make $3-4M in arb for 2025 (MLBTR has $3M) and more in his last year (maybe $10-20M.) Let's say he would make $24M/2 for 2025 and 2026, and an extension was agreed upon at $28M x 4 years from 2027-2030 ($112/4). Our AAV could be $4M, $20M then $28M for the next 4 years, if it's structure to begin in 2027.

Or, we could start it in 2025 as a contract of $136/6 (the same as the other two combined,) but the AAV would be evened out (More in 2025 & 2026, but less afterwards.) Te tax hit would be $22.7 x 6. If we stay under with that total, we could, in theory, have more to spend starting in 2027.

Even if they sign outside players, they should work on extensions. They should sign extensions for Campbell and Anthony a day after they appear in their first MLB game (the morning of regular season game #2). 

[moonslav59]

28 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Even if they sign outside players, they should work on extensions. They should sign extensions for Campbell and Anthony a day after they appear in their first MLB game (the morning of regular season game #2). 

Agreed. Just get it done.

I also think the Crochet trade was a waste, if we don't extend him and a double waste, if we punt for the first of his 2 years, here.

[drewski6]

49 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Even if they sign outside players, they should work on extensions. They should sign extensions for Campbell and Anthony a day after they appear in their first MLB game (the morning of regular season game #2). 

I have my doubts they both start on the ML team.  I think there is still one more starter to come over, whether that be Bregman, Arrenado, Santander , some other OF...

[mvp 78]

21 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Agreed. Just get it done.

I also think the Crochet trade was a waste, if we don't extend him and a double waste, if we punt for the first of his 2 years, here.

If they let Crochet go after two years, it was a bad trade. 

[mvp 78]

Just now, drewski6 said:

I have my doubts they both start on the ML team.  I think there is still one more starter to come over, whether that be Bregman, Arrenado, Santander , some other OF...

I think OF is pretty stacked. I could see a Bregman addition, but can still see a path for Campbell and Anthony making the roster even if he's added. 

C Wong/Whoever

1B Devers

2B Campbell/Romy

SS Story

3B Bregman

OF Rafaela/Anthony/Duran/Abreu/Refsnyder

DH Masa

Traded Casas

[drewski6]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I think OF is pretty stacked. I could see a Bregman addition, but can still see a path for Campbell and Anthony making the roster even if he's added. 

C Wong/Whoever

1B Devers

2B Campbell/Romy

SS Story

3B Bregman

OF Rafaela/Anthony/Duran/Abreu/Refsnyder

DH Masa

Traded Casas

I still think the most likely scenario is that Campbell starts on the ML roster and Anthony doesnt.  Not to imply I think its incredibly unlikely that they both start on the ML roster, just think its under 50%

[moonslav59]

To me, we still need a lockdown closer to be a serious contender. I do not think the Sox FO agrees. At best, they add a decent RP'er like Minter.

We could really use a catcher that is a plus on D. I think the FO may think Narvaez fills that role, and Zavala is a good non 40 man roster depth.

I do think the FO is still seeking a way to add a RHB to the line-up, and might be looking at trading Abreu, DHam or both to clear room for the incoming player and or Campbell and Anthony.

I do not think the FO views corner IF defense as something worth upsetting Devers over. The talk of getting Bregman to play 2B or Arenado to play 1B makes me feel sick to my stomach.

If I had to predict who we add, it might be Grichuk and Minter (maybe Estevez.) Maybe by adding Grichuk, we trade Abreu for a catcher or RP'er or both.

 

[moonslav59]

19 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I think OF is pretty stacked. I could see a Bregman addition, but can still see a path for Campbell and Anthony making the roster even if he's added. 

C Wong/Whoever

1B Devers

2B Campbell/Romy

SS Story

3B Bregman

OF Rafaela/Anthony/Duran/Abreu/Refsnyder

DH Masa

Traded Casas

Rafaela in AAA or traded?

[Nick]

I've always thought that we should bring up promising rookies in late April to give us an 'extra' year of team control, a la 4 arbitration years plus 3 years at minimum.

I had forgotten that Rookie of the Year now brings in an extra draft pick.

I'm hoping Campbell has an outstanding Spring and comes up North with the varsity team. His ceiling seems much higher than that of what's his face from Atlanta.

 

 

Edited January 8, 2025 by Nick
additional comment

[Nick]

24 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Rafaela in AAA or traded?

I would keep him. I think he'll be our starting CF on April 1st.

[moonslav59]

19 minutes ago, Nick said:

I've always thought that we should bring up promising rookies in late April to give us an 'extra' year of team control, a la 4 arbitration years plus 3 years at minimum.

I had forgotten that Rookie of the Year brings in an extra draft pick.

I'm hoping Campbell has an outstanding Spring and comes up North with the varsity team. His ceiling seems much higher than that of what's his face from Atlanta.

 

 

Depending on further additions and how some guys look in ST'ing, I think there is only a chance that one from Anthony or Campbell starts the season in MLB. Mayer might, if Story is on an extended IL stint. The other(s) will be held back to gain the year of service.

I will not be a all surprised if none of the top 3 are on the 40 or 26 on opening day. Barring injuries, we have a solid 9, right now. One from Romy, Grissom or DHam may start in AAA, even if Campbell does not make the roster. With O'Neill gone, maybe Anthony has the better chance at making the 26. We do not want Abreu playing vs LHPs, so I see Anthony playing RF v LHPs and CF v RHPs as the most likely situation, if any.

[Bellhorn04]

4 hours ago, notin said:

Is it that Japanese players prefer the west coast? Or that west coast teams prefer Japanese players more so than other teams. We’ve all send plenty of Japanese players sign elsewhere, often eschewing west coast alternatives…

The West Coast Preference legend probably started when Ohtani chose the Angels.  And then last year of course Ohtani and Yamamoto both chose the Dodgers. 

There's some credence to the geographical proximity part of it.

But like you say, Japanese players sign with other teams too.    

Maybe it's just that Ohtani and Yamamoto get so much of the attention.  

[Duran Is The Man]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The West Coast Preference legend probably started when Ohtani chose the Angels.  And then last year of course Ohtani and Yamamoto both chose the Dodgers. 

There's some credence to the geographical proximity part of it.

But like you say, Japanese players sign with other teams too.    

Maybe it's just that Ohtani and Yamamoto get so much of the attention.  

i hate to state the obvious, but people naturally want to be associated with success, whether it's friends, businesses or whatever. the Dodgers commitment to winning (versus Henry's commitment to his wallet) has made them very very successful. this success has players wanting to play for them. does any free agent really want to play for the Marlins or A's? what i'm saying is: i don't think location is that much of a factor.

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

i hate to state the obvious, but people naturally want to be associated with success, whether it's friends, businesses or whatever. the Dodgers commitment to winning (versus Henry's commitment to his wallet) has made them very very successful. this success has players wanting to play for them. does any free agent really want to play for the Marlins or A's? what i'm saying is: i don't think location is that much of a factor.

For some players like Burnes and Eflin, location matters.

Kikuchi signed with the hapless Angels.

There are exceptions, but I do think winning teams, or those with the perception that they are trying to win, is a carrot for many players. Right now, all the Sox can offer is Gerber pureed  carrots.

 

[mvp 78]

16 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Rafaela in AAA or traded?

In the OF rotation as I suggested. I don't think he gets anything if put in AAA. 

[mvp 78]

15 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The West Coast Preference legend probably started when Ohtani chose the Angels.  And then last year of course Ohtani and Yamamoto both chose the Dodgers. 

There's some credence to the geographical proximity part of it.

But like you say, Japanese players sign with other teams too.    

Maybe it's just that Ohtani and Yamamoto get so much of the attention.  

Started with the Dodgers: Nomo, Maeda, Kuroda, Saito

Started with the Mariners: Kikuchi, Iwakuma, Ichiro

The other two teams that early on signed bigger name Japanese players were the Sox and Yankees due to the amount of money they could spend (Matsui, Irabu, Igawa, Okajima, DiceK).

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

16 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Rafaela in AAA or traded?

In Boston. He is a major leaguer, after posting a 2.8 WAR his rookie season. BB-ref lists him as the Sox' regular shortstop on the '24 roster, but even though two other outfield teammates were nominated for Gold Gloves, we all know he's the best flychaser on the club.

Despite pitch selection issues in his first year in the bigs, Ceddanne still hit 15 homers, stole 19 bases, and only Devers had more RBI. He's not a minor leaguer.

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

In Boston. He is a major leaguer, after posting a 2.8 WAR his rookie season. BB-ref lists him as the Sox' regular shortstop on the '24 roster, but even though two other outfield teammates were nominated for Gold Gloves, we all know he's the best flychaser on the club.

Despite pitch selection issues in his first year in the bigs, Ceddanne still hit 15 homers, stole 19 bases, and only Devers had more RBI. He's not a minor leaguer.

His WAR would have been higher if he was left in CF for the whole season too. 

[Bellhorn04]

10 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Started with the Dodgers: Nomo, Maeda, Kuroda, Saito

Started with the Mariners: Kikuchi, Iwakuma, Ichiro

The other two teams that early on signed bigger name Japanese players were the Sox and Yankees due to the amount of money they could spend (Matsui, Irabu, Igawa, Okajima, DiceK).

Right.  I could be wrong here but I think Ohtani is the one who really made it clear he only wanted to play on the West Coast when he chose the Halos.  

[mvp 78]

12 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Right.  I could be wrong here but I think Ohtani is the one who really made it clear he only wanted to play on the West Coast when he chose the Halos.  

Nintendo's ownership stake is a big reason the Mariners acquired Ichiro. I think them owning a team on the West Coast contributed to that conversation.