Article: Which Walker Buehler Are the Red Sox Getting?

[Davy Andrews]

Buehler struggled mightily since returning from his second Tommy John surgery in 2022. Then he seemed to figure things out right when it mattered the most. What should the Red Sox expect from him?

The Red Sox promised big moves this offseason, vowing that venturing into luxury tax territory was fully on the table. Until Monday morning, they had made just one major move, landing Garrett Crochet in exchange for prospects, while largely keeping the war chest intact. Over at FanGraphs’ offseason tracker, you can look at every move the Red Sox have made this season. That big picture view is helpful. Until this week, the Red Sox had added Crochet, Aroldis Chapman, Patrick Sandoval, and Justin Wilson. Those players will cost a combined $21.4 million in 2025. The team also waved goodbye to free agents Tyler O’Neill, Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin, James Paxton, Nick Pivetta, and Danny Jansen. According to Baseball America’s rankings, they have also traded away seven of their top 30 prospects. All of this is to say that the Red Sox have traded away a significant piece of their future, but if they were actually planning on improving this season, they still had a lot of work to do.

As of this morning, that work has begun. The Red Sox have signed right-hander Walker Buehler to a one-year, $21.05-million contract with incentives that can drive the value even higher. If that number sounds familiar, it ought to: $21.05 million is the exact same value as the Qualifying Offer. The Dodgers chose not to extend Buehler the QO. Instead, he accepted it as the floor of his deal with the Red Sox. Remember that the Red Sox offered a QO to Nick Pivetta. It’s up to you to decide which of these two pitchers you’d rather have in 2025.

Regardless of where you come down, Buehler was one of the most intriguing free agents this offseason. A first-round draft pick out of Vanderbilt in 2015, he would eventually become the top-ranked prospect in the Los Angeles system. However, he underwent Tommy John surgery in 2016 and struggled when he made his big-league debut in 2017. He bounced back brilliantly. From 2018 to 2021, running a 2.82 ERA and 3.16 FIP. His 14.4 fWAR over that stretch made him the seventh-most valuable pitcher in all of baseball. He was truly one of the best in the game. Unfortunately, injuries weren’t done with Buehler. He regressed a bit in 2022, and his season ended in June with a second UCL tear, requiring a second Tommy John surgery and flexor tendon repair. He missed the entire 2023 season, and when he returned in 2025, he was not the same pitcher, running a 5.38 ERA and 5.54 FIP. However, after hip inflammation cost him two months in the middle of the season, he seemed to figure things out upon his return.

I wrote about Patrick Sandoval two days ago, explaining how his iffy fastballs made him a perfect fit for Boston, by far the organization that is least afraid of ditching the fastball altogether and focusing on the pitches that work. Well, that makes a whole lot of sense for Buehler as well. Although his four-seamer still averages 95 mph, the pitch is slower and it doesn’t rise like it used to. It now sits in the dead zone, which means that it moves exactly the way a batter would expect it to move based on Buehler’s arm angle and release point. Predictability means hitttability, and Statcast says the pitch was worth -8 runs in 2024 and -11 in 2022. From 2018 to 2021, the pitch was worth a combined 58 runs, making it the fifth-most valuable pitch in all of baseball. Part of the reason that Buehler struggled so much since his return is that he was trying to pitch like he did back when he had a great fastball.

In August, after returning from the hip injury, Buehler decided to try something new. Michael Rosen wrote an excellent article that describes Buehler’s evolution this season, and it’s required reading for anyone wondering why the Red Sox might spend so much on such a player. Buehler’s cutter and sweeper were still effective, and they played a big role in his turnaround. In May and June, Buehler threw a cutter or a breaking ball roughly 45% of the time. From August onward, that number went up to 54%. Buehler also started throwing his knuckle curve a bit softer in August. The pitch broke more and performed much better, especially in the playoffs, where it ran a 39% whiff rate. Buehler leaned on his cutter and sweeper much more against righties and his knuckle curve against lefties. Without that electric four-seamer, that breaking-ball heavy formula now looks like the clearest path to success. He’ll need to further deemphasize his four-seamer and lean more heavily on his cutter and breakers.

Buehler finished the postseason with 13 consecutive scoreless innings, including the ninth inning of the deciding World Series Game 5. He’s unlikely to reach the heights that he did back when he had one of the most dominant pitches in all of baseball, and it's always dangerous to assume that a player can keep a small run of greatness going indefinitely, but the Red Sox clearly believe that Buehler is capable of repeating or building on his late-season run in 2024. However, in Crochet, Sandoval, and Buehler, the Red Sox have now added three pitchers with serious injury history. Like Sandoval, Buehler is a somewhat risky upside play. Buehler is also betting on himself, hoping to turn a great, healthy season in Boston into a long-term deal. All of a sudden, Boston’s rotation is balancing more depth and and higher ceiling with a whole lot more uncertainty.

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[Hugh2]

the 2025 one

[Brock Beauchamp]

Great write-up, Davy!

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Buehler is more of a perfect fit for the Red Sox than Sandoval, because as of right now, he can pitch to start next season. 

And in the last series he pitched in last season -- the World Series against the New York Yankees -- Buehler was good.

Those fans who care about Boston's year-to-year budget can't even complain about Buehler's contract, since if he shows he can't stay healthy through next season, the Sox won't owe him anything (or have to eat millions to watch him pitch for someone else).

[Old Red]

44 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

the 2025 one

Which is most likely not the 2021, and before one, and all for the low, low price of $20M+. Which stats from last year has gotten you all excited that this guy will even be better than Pivetta? 2021 was a long time ago when this guy was good, and even the Red Sox were a postseason team them. Now both are MEH.

[Hugh2]

36 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Which is most likely not the 2021, and before one, and all for the low, low price of $20M+. Which stats from last year has gotten you all excited that this guy will even be better than Pivetta? 2021 was a long time ago when this guy was good, and even the Red Sox were a postseason team them. Now both are MEH.

Walker was a Cy-Young candidate back in 2021, while Pivetta has never even SNIFFED a top ten. 

[Old Red]

1 minute ago, Hugh2 said:

Walker was a Cy-Young candidate back in 2021, while Pivetta has never even SNIFFED a top ten. 

Like I said 2021 was a long time ago, and a lot has happened since then. Pivetta was a better pitcher for what it was in 2024. It will be 2025 now, so 2021 doesn’t mean a rats a**. Like I said MEH on the now $20M man.

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Walker was a Cy-Young candidate back in 2021, while Pivetta has never even SNIFFED a top ten. 

Pivetta 2024:

145 innings, 4.14 ERA

This isn't some insurmountable climb! That's 2022 or 2023 Patrick Sandoval. 

Pivetta career: 223 G, 11.9 fWAR, 10.3 bWAR

Buehler career: 131 G, 15.0 fWAR, 12.2 bWAR 

If I'm trying to build a playoff rotation, I want the guy with upside. That's Buehler. It may not work, but we had Pivetta for 4+ years and that didn't go very far. 

[Old Red]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Pivetta 2024:

145 innings, 4.14 ERA

This isn't some insurmountable climb! That's 2022 or 2023 Patrick Sandoval. 

Pivetta career: 223 G, 11.9 fWAR, 10.3 bWAR

Buehler career: 131 G, 15.0 fWAR, 12.2 bWAR 

If I'm trying to build a playoff rotation, I want the guy with upside. That's Buehler. It may not work, but we had Pivetta for 4+ years and that didn't go very far. 

I’m not saying Pivetta has been very good, but Buehler hasn’t been any good since 2021, and of course Buehler hasn’t been a picture, or pitcher of health either. Buehler career was 2021, and before.

[Hugh2]

1 minute ago, Old Red said:

I’m not saying Pivetta has been very good, but Buehler hasn’t been any good since 2021, and of course Buehler hasn’t been a picture, or pitcher of health either. Buehler career was 2021, and before.

Literally two years of that was because of TJ.   Last year he didn't look great.  Is that because he isn't the same guy? or because he's still climbing his way back?  His post season run certainly seem to indicate the later. 

If the Sox only signed him I'd be pissed, but with Crochet also added I think it's a great addition. 

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I’m not saying Pivetta has been very good, but Buehler hasn’t been any good since 2021, and of course Buehler hasn’t been a picture, or pitcher of health either. Buehler career was 2021, and before.

How was Buehler supposed to be good when he was out with TJS? His '22 season is basically a Pivetta season prior to the injury (12 GS, 4.02 ERA, 101 ERA+). 

If your only complaint is "he didn't come back strong enough in 2024, I'm not sure what to tell you. The Dodgers thought it was going to take 24 months for him to get back to 100%. He had his surgery in August 2022. His regular season showed that he wasn't 100%. Will he be there? IDK. On a one year flier, it's a not a horrible bet IMO. I was worried they'd go multiple years with him.

[Old Red]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

How was Buehler supposed to be good when he was out with TJS? His '22 season is basically a Pivetta season prior to the injury (12 GS, 4.02 ERA, 101 ERA+). 

If your only complaint is "he didn't come back strong enough in 2024, I'm not sure what to tell you. The Dodgers thought it was going to take 24 months for him to get back to 100%. He had his surgery in August 2022. His regular season showed that he wasn't 100%. Will he be there? IDK. On a one year flier, it's a not a horrible bet IMO. I was worried they'd go multiple years with him.

I fully aware of his TJ history. All I’m saying is this guy might not be any better than what Pivetta would give you, and I’m not all gung-ho as many are on here. Nothing more, or nothing less than that. 

[mvp 78]

Just now, Old Red said:

I fully aware of his TJ history. All I’m saying is this guy might not be any better than what Pivetta would give you, and I’m not all gung-ho as many are on here. Nothing more, or nothing less than that. 

Maybe, but Pivetta's contract will be larger AND longer. 

[Old Red]

11 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Maybe, but Pivetta's contract will be larger AND longer. 

I wasn’t for keeping Pivetta by any means, but was hoping for trading some more suspects for younger pitching like with Crochet.

[smokedogg1982]

It's not a bad signing now go get Teo and Scott or Hoffman. Do those things and Red Sox are contenders in 2025

[moonslav59]

Pivetta was about as dependable as can be. He was never great, but at times pitched like a decent #2 or #3 SP'er (top 45-75 out of 150 MLB SP'ers.) That is not great, but when you look at the best pitchers on the Sox, since 2019, nobody cam close to being as good AND dependable. Nate came closest, and he started only 73 out of a possible 111 starts from 2019-2022. That's just under making 2 out of every 3 starts. 

While Pivetta missed some starts due to a one time demotion from the rotation, which is far from a feather in his cap, he hardly missed any starts due to injury. The guy had a 103 ERA+ for the Sox and took the ball every 5 days.

While Buehler's 122 ERA+, since 2020 is significantly better than Nick's 103, he made 69 starts out of a possible 111. That's missing 38% of his starts. He has an 83 ERA+ in his last 28 GS. Why do we seem to be so confident he will do better in his next 28 starts? Sure, better than an 83 ERA+ seems like good projection, but can we really be that certain he will pitch to Pivetta's 103 ERA+ in 2024?

I do readily admit he has a better chance to hit a 120 ERA+ than Pivetta does in 2024, but why should we expect that or even think he's an odds on favorite to even hit 110?

(BTW, Pivetta hit 113 in 2023 and is at 108 from 2023-2024.)

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, smokedogg1982 said:

It's not a bad signing now go get Teo and Scott or Hoffman. Do those things and Red Sox are contenders in 2025

I hope I'm wrong, but that seems like a pipedream.

After each signing of someone we needed, we look to the next best guy(s) and say, "just go get 'em." Why will it be different, this time?

Yes, a gree it can be, but I am so far from expecting it, it's not close to being funny.

[Bellhorn04]

moon, when you were a kid I'll bet you would have loved this signing.  "We got Walker effin' Buehler.  Let's effin' go!"

But now we're like a bunch of old actuaries poring through reams of statistics and calculating probable outcomes...

[Old Red]

6 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

moon, when you were a kid I'll bet you would have loved this signing.  "We got Walker effin' Buehler.  Let's effin' go!"

But now we're like a bunch of old actuaries poring through reams of statistics and calculating probable outcomes...

Like how many things have gone right the past three years compared to how many things have gone wrong. Sale got out from the bad mojo, and looked what happened.

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

moon, when you were a kid I'll bet you would have loved this signing.  "We got Walker effin' Buehler.  Let's effin' go!"

But now we're like a bunch of old actuaries poring through reams of statistics and calculating probable outcomes...

 

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, Old Red said:

Like how many things have gone right the past three years compared to how many things have gone wrong. Sale got out from the bad mojo, and looked what happened.

Or start to celebrate the things that are going right now?

Abreu had a strong season and won a GG.

Houck pitched like a STUD.

Duran was a monster all year. 

Devers struggled with an injury and still had one of his best seasons.

Justin Slaten looks like a guy they can count on. 

They traded for a guy that could be a bonafide ACE. 

This team is in a much different spot than they have been previously. Are they ready to take that next step? We don't know, I feel more confident in this team than in any of the previous 3 versions. 

[Bellhorn04]

It's still somewhat of a hodgepodge, but it's becoming a more interesting hodgepodge when you bring in new names like Crochet, Sandoval and Buehler.

Really hoping they add a quality reliever now.

[Old Red]

7 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Or start to celebrate the things that are going right now?

Abreu had a strong season and won a GG.

Houck pitched like a STUD.

Duran was a monster all year. 

Devers struggled with an injury and still had one of his best seasons.

Justin Slaten looks like a guy they can count on. 

They traded for a guy that could be a bonafide ACE. 

This team is in a much different spot than they have been previously. Are they ready to take that next step? We don't know, I feel more confident in this team than in any of the previous 3 versions. 

As usual 2025 most likely will come down to how well the rotation holds up, and how well they do, which then will determine how are the BP holds up, and how well they do.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

3 hours ago, Old Red said:

I fully aware of his TJ history. All I’m saying is this guy might not be any better than what Pivetta would give you, and I’m not all gung-ho as many are on here. Nothing more, or nothing less than that. 

Ok, but you do realize the Red Sox basically offered Pivetta the same one-year deal, which he declined?

Buehler, however, was inclined to take it.

And now I'm inclined to recline.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Or start to celebrate the things that are going right now?

Abreu had a strong season and won a GG.

Houck pitched like a STUD.

Duran was a monster all year. 

Devers struggled with an injury and still had one of his best seasons.

Justin Slaten looks like a guy they can count on. 

They traded for a guy that could be a bonafide ACE. 

This team is in a much different spot than they have been previously. Are they ready to take that next step? We don't know, I feel more confident in this team than in any of the previous 3 versions. 

And this has to be the first time in my old life the Red Sox' farm had the #1 prospect in baseball AND the Minor League Player of the Year -- and they were two different guys.

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

And this has to be the first time in my old life the Red Sox' farm had the #1 prospect in baseball AND the Minor League Player of the Year -- and they were two different guys.

I specifically left those two out because of Old Red’s propensity to throw “suspects” around.

[vjcsmoke]

4 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

It's still somewhat of a hodgepodge, but it's becoming a more interesting hodgepodge when you bring in new names like Crochet, Sandoval and Buehler.

Really hoping they add a quality reliever now.

Aroldis Chapman isn't quality enough for you? You've got to drop your expectations lower, it's either the bargain bin way or the highway!

[moonslav59]

On 12/23/2024 at 2:24 PM, Bellhorn04 said:

moon, when you were a kid I'll bet you would have loved this signing.  "We got Walker effin' Buehler.  Let's effin' go!"

But now we're like a bunch of old actuaries poring through reams of statistics and calculating probable outcomes...

I probably wouldn't have known about his injury history and liked the deal.

BTW, I was a stat geek as a kid, too.