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The Red Sox promised big moves this offseason, vowing that venturing into luxury tax territory was fully on the table. Until Monday morning, they had made just one major move, landing Garrett Crochet in exchange for prospects, while largely keeping the war chest intact. Over at FanGraphs’ offseason tracker, you can look at every move the Red Sox have made this season. That big picture view is helpful. Until this week, the Red Sox had added Crochet, Aroldis Chapman, Patrick Sandoval, and Justin Wilson. Those players will cost a combined $21.4 million in 2025. The team also waved goodbye to free agents Tyler O’Neill, Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin, James Paxton, Nick Pivetta, and Danny Jansen. According to Baseball America’s rankings, they have also traded away seven of their top 30 prospects. All of this is to say that the Red Sox have traded away a significant piece of their future, but if they were actually planning on improving this season, they still had a lot of work to do.
As of this morning, that work has begun. The Red Sox have signed right-hander Walker Buehler to a one-year, $21.05-million contract with incentives that can drive the value even higher. If that number sounds familiar, it ought to: $21.05 million is the exact same value as the Qualifying Offer. The Dodgers chose not to extend Buehler the QO. Instead, he accepted it as the floor of his deal with the Red Sox. Remember that the Red Sox offered a QO to Nick Pivetta. It’s up to you to decide which of these two pitchers you’d rather have in 2025.
Regardless of where you come down, Buehler was one of the most intriguing free agents this offseason. A first-round draft pick out of Vanderbilt in 2015, he would eventually become the top-ranked prospect in the Los Angeles system. However, he underwent Tommy John surgery in 2016 and struggled when he made his big-league debut in 2017. He bounced back brilliantly. From 2018 to 2021, running a 2.82 ERA and 3.16 FIP. His 14.4 fWAR over that stretch made him the seventh-most valuable pitcher in all of baseball. He was truly one of the best in the game. Unfortunately, injuries weren’t done with Buehler. He regressed a bit in 2022, and his season ended in June with a second UCL tear, requiring a second Tommy John surgery and flexor tendon repair. He missed the entire 2023 season, and when he returned in 2025, he was not the same pitcher, running a 5.38 ERA and 5.54 FIP. However, after hip inflammation cost him two months in the middle of the season, he seemed to figure things out upon his return.
I wrote about Patrick Sandoval two days ago, explaining how his iffy fastballs made him a perfect fit for Boston, by far the organization that is least afraid of ditching the fastball altogether and focusing on the pitches that work. Well, that makes a whole lot of sense for Buehler as well. Although his four-seamer still averages 95 mph, the pitch is slower and it doesn’t rise like it used to. It now sits in the dead zone, which means that it moves exactly the way a batter would expect it to move based on Buehler’s arm angle and release point. Predictability means hitttability, and Statcast says the pitch was worth -8 runs in 2024 and -11 in 2022. From 2018 to 2021, the pitch was worth a combined 58 runs, making it the fifth-most valuable pitch in all of baseball. Part of the reason that Buehler struggled so much since his return is that he was trying to pitch like he did back when he had a great fastball.
In August, after returning from the hip injury, Buehler decided to try something new. Michael Rosen wrote an excellent article that describes Buehler’s evolution this season, and it’s required reading for anyone wondering why the Red Sox might spend so much on such a player. Buehler’s cutter and sweeper were still effective, and they played a big role in his turnaround. In May and June, Buehler threw a cutter or a breaking ball roughly 45% of the time. From August onward, that number went up to 54%. Buehler also started throwing his knuckle curve a bit softer in August. The pitch broke more and performed much better, especially in the playoffs, where it ran a 39% whiff rate. Buehler leaned on his cutter and sweeper much more against righties and his knuckle curve against lefties. Without that electric four-seamer, that breaking-ball heavy formula now looks like the clearest path to success. He’ll need to further deemphasize his four-seamer and lean more heavily on his cutter and breakers.
Buehler finished the postseason with 13 consecutive scoreless innings, including the ninth inning of the deciding World Series Game 5. He’s unlikely to reach the heights that he did back when he had one of the most dominant pitches in all of baseball, and it's always dangerous to assume that a player can keep a small run of greatness going indefinitely, but the Red Sox clearly believe that Buehler is capable of repeating or building on his late-season run in 2024. However, in Crochet, Sandoval, and Buehler, the Red Sox have now added three pitchers with serious injury history. Like Sandoval, Buehler is a somewhat risky upside play. Buehler is also betting on himself, hoping to turn a great, healthy season in Boston into a long-term deal. All of a sudden, Boston’s rotation is balancing more depth and and higher ceiling with a whole lot more uncertainty.
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