Article: The Red Sox Want To Play in the Deep End of the Free Agent Pitching Market

[drewski6]

22 minutes ago, harmony said:

The Seattle Mariners are highly unlikely to trade Luis Castillo at a negative value, especially in light of the five-year, $182 million contract reportedly landed by Blake Snell.

Id go positive, personally, if the bidding on Fried and Burnes goes nutty.

[moonslav59]

Snell's deal did nothing to Castillo's value.

[Larry Cook]

Atlanta is reportedly looking for an outfielder! 
Atlanta has 2 pitchers in AAA that are not quite ready, but very close. 
maybe we can make out together a trade that makes sense for us and them! 

[harmony]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

But Mayer and Campbell are ML ready, despite not being Rule 5 eligible.

Depends on the definition of MLB-ready.

Kristian Campbell has played only 19 games above Double A and Marcelo Mayer has played zero (0) games above Double AA.

[Larry Cook]

4 minutes ago, harmony said:

Depends on the definition of MLB-ready.

Kristian Campbell has played only 19 games above Double A and Marcelo Mayer has played zero (0) games above Double AA.

Correct, but these 3 are very very close to being major league contributors! With a solid spring training Campbell and Anthony have an excellent chance to start the season in Boston! 
Mayer has to prove he can stay healthy, but had the highest ceiling of all the position players, including devers, on our roster! 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

7 minutes ago, harmony said:

Depends on the definition of MLB-ready.

Kristian Campbell has played only 19 games above Double A and Marcelo Mayer has played zero (0) games above Double AA.

How many times has a Minor League Player of the Year not moved up to the big leagues the next season?

What more does he have to prove -- that he can be a repeat winner at AAA? Or that he's not already better than at least the 26th player on 30 MLB rosters?

[moonslav59]

ML Ready does not mean having ML experience.

soxprospects.com lists Mayer and Campbell as "Early 2025" for their ETA's.

They are not the only ones  thinking both are ready.

Only their non 40 man roster status may keep tahem back from opening the season on the 26.

[Hitch]

13 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

But Mayer and Campbell are ML ready, despite not being Rule 5 eligible.

Where's the evidence Mayer is ready? He has had little time in AAA (no games I believe?), and plenty of injuries.

 

He is not ready. 

 

As with all these trade proposals, fans overestimate the worth of their players, underestimate the worth of the other teams, and rarely take into account all plans and ideas afoot within the other teams front office.

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, Hitch said:

Where's the evidence Mayer is ready? He has had little time in AAA (no games I believe?), and plenty of injuries.

 

He is not ready. 

 

As with all these trade proposals, fans overestimate the worth of their players, underestimate the worth of the other teams, and rarely take into account all plans and ideas afoot within the other teams front office.

Injuries may make any player "not ready." Mayer, Anthony and Campbell are ML ready, this second, if healthy. They may be held back for 40 man roster reasons, or to give Grissom/DHam and Rafaela another look, but all could start on opening day and would likely be a plus player from day one.

Mayer is plus on D at SS. That, almost alone, makes him "ready." It may take a while for the bat to "adjust," but that might be close to the same in a year.

Campbell's bat is likely "ready," now. He should be fine on D, too.

Anthony probably could have played in the bigs, last summer.

Of course, nobody knows, for sure, but that is true for most vets, too.

I'm not overestimating anything, and neither are many farm evaluation experts.

Happy Thanksgiving.

[Hitch]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Injuries may make any player "not ready." Mayer, Anthony and Campbell are ML ready, this second, if healthy. They may be held back for 40 man roster reasons, or to give Grissom/DHam and Rafaela another look, but all could start on opening day and would likely be a plus player from day one.

Mayer is plus on D at SS. That, almost alone, makes him "ready." It may take a while for the bat to "adjust," but that might be close to the same in a year.

Campbell's bat is likely "ready," now. He should be fine on D, too.

Anthony probably could have played in the bigs, last summer.

Of course, nobody knows, for sure, but that is true for most vets, too.

I'm not overestimating anything, and neither are many farm evaluation experts.

Happy Thanksgiving.

Again, where is the evidence that Mayer is MLB ready? Is performance in AA enough now?

 

Nobody that I've seen is saying he is likely the starting SS/2nd out of camp. Early '25 maybe, but I've not seen a single analysis that says he is likely in the major league roster out of camp?

 

He is obviously very highly rated, and a talent, but he also needs more time in the minors. This feels pretty obvious to me. *shrugs

 

Happy Thanksgiving to you, too.

[moonslav59]

38 minutes ago, Hitch said:

Again, where is the evidence that Mayer is MLB ready? Is performance in AA enough now?

 

Nobody that I've seen is saying he is likely the starting SS/2nd out of camp. Early '25 maybe, but I've not seen a single analysis that says he is likely in the major league roster out of camp?

 

He is obviously very highly rated, and a talent, but he also needs more time in the minors. This feels pretty obvious to me. *shrugs

 

Happy Thanksgiving to you, too.

There is hardly ever firm evidence any prospect is ML ready, and many that proved themselves in AAA fizzle out.

One main reason we are not hearing about Mayer, Campbell, Anthony and Meidroth making the opening day roster is that none were Rule 5 eligible, and so are not needed on the 40, until we know they will be a FT or near FT player in the bigs. Another reason is the years of control issue that comes with adding someone to the 40, earlier. These two factors play into the opening day conversation, right?

To me, Mayer is already a better defender than DHam, Grissom, Romy and Valdez. Only Romy is a decent SS on D. I think DHam looked fine at 2B on D, and his bat earned him a look in 2025. Grissom is an unknown on D at 2B and has some serious questions to answer. He will get a strong look in ST'ing. Some seem to have high hopes for Romy, but he has a long way to go to show he is a better option than Mayer or Campbell at 2B and Mayer at SS.

Story is our starting SS, so that makes Mayer breaking camp a tough issue, since he has no experience at 2B. That may make him "not ML ready" in a positional sense, but if Story gets hurt in ST'ing or early in 2025, my guess is Mayer will get very strong consideration to move right into a FT role at SS for the Sox. He has to be better than DHam and Grissom at SS, and Romy to a lesser extent. Essentially, Mayer is blocked by Story, but IMO, is ML ready.

Campbell is harder to evaluate. He has moved around in positions, but he seems to be fine at 2B or OF. His bat looks great, but admittedly, the sample size is small. I doubt we rush him, since we have 2-3 guys looking to get a chance to win the 2B job in ST'ing and over the early part of 2025. I do think, if we were looking at Reyes and E Valdez as the starting 2025 2Bmen, Campbell would have a very good chance of winning the opening day 2B job, or taking it over, once those two self destructed over early 2025. If our OF wasn't one of the best and deepest in MLB, he could win an OF job by early April, too.

How can I prove it? Of course, I can't. Just as nobody can prove these two are not ML ready.

To me, Anthony is ready, yesterday. If we trade Abreu and don't add any other OF'ers, he's the opening day FT RF'er. I could also see this happening by early April, or maybe the day after he gains one more year of control.... (no Abreu trade)

vs RHP: LF: Duran, CF: Anthony, RF: Abreu

vs LHPs: LF: Duran, CF: Rafaela, RF: Anthony

Teel is not ML ready. Meidroth is a tough call and is blocked by Devers, Story, Mayer, Campbell and maybe the DHam-Grissom platoon at 2B. He can beat out Romy, but Romy might not be on the 26.

[Hitch]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

There is hardly ever firm evidence any prospect is ML ready, and many that proved themselves in AAA fizzle out.

One main reason we are not hearing about Mayer, Campbell, Anthony and Meidroth making the opening day roster is that none were Rule 5 eligible, and so are not needed on the 40, until we know they will be a FT or near FT player in the bigs. Another reason is the years of control issue that comes with adding someone to the 40, earlier. These two factors play into the opening day conversation, right?

To me, Mayer is already a better defender than DHam, Grissom, Romy and Valdez. Only Romy is a decent SS on D. I think DHam looked fine at 2B on D, and his bat earned him a look in 2025. Grissom is an unknown on D at 2B and has some serious questions to answer. He will get a strong look in ST'ing. Some seem to have high hopes for Romy, but he has a long way to go to show he is a better option than Mayer or Campbell at 2B and Mayer at SS.

Story is our starting SS, so that makes Mayer breaking camp a tough issue, since he has no experience at 2B. That may make him "not ML ready" in a positional sense, but if Story gets hurt in ST'ing or early in 2025, my guess is Mayer will get very strong consideration to move right into a FT role at SS for the Sox. He has to be better than DHam and Grissom at SS, and Romy to a lesser extent. Essentially, Mayer is blocked by Story, but IMO, is ML ready.

Campbell is harder to evaluate. He has moved around in positions, but he seems to be fine at 2B or OF. His bat looks great, but admittedly, the sample size is small. I doubt we rush him, since we have 2-3 guys looking to get a chance to win the 2B job in ST'ing and over the early part of 2025. I do think, if we were looking at Reyes and E Valdez as the starting 2025 2Bmen, Campbell would have a very good chance of winning the opening day 2B job, or taking it over, once those two self destructed over early 2025. If our OF wasn't one of the best and deepest in MLB, he could win an OF job by early April, too.

How can I prove it? Of course, I can't. Just as nobody can prove these two are not ML ready.

To me, Anthony is ready, yesterday. If we trade Abreu and don't add any other OF'ers, he's the opening day FT RF'er. I could also see this happening by early April, or maybe the day after he gains one more year of control.... (no Abreu trade)

vs RHP: LF: Duran, CF: Anthony, RF: Abreu

vs LHPs: LF: Duran, CF: Rafaela, RF: Anthony

Teel is not ML ready. Meidroth is a tough call and is blocked by Devers, Story, Mayer, Campbell and maybe the DHam-Grissom platoon at 2B. He can beat out Romy, but Romy might not be on the 26.

I think if we got rid of Storey and slotted Mayer in there almost all of us would be concerned and think it too soon.

 

He's one of the top prospects in the game, but he's proven nothing above AA.

 

No way is he MLB ready right now for me.

[moonslav59]

Of course we'd all be concerned, same way were were with Pedey, JBJ, Beni and Betts.

Many of the best prospects jump from AA to the bigs or have just a brief stay in AAA. Yes, it'a concern that he never got to play in AAA, due to the injury the day of his call-up. His injuries have slowed his ability to prove his readiness. I do think Anthony is "more ready," and Campbell was so great in 2024, that he seem "more ready," too.

I do remember reading a few articles a year or two ago, that thought Mayer would be ML ready by 2024. The injuries got in the way.

I do think if Story gets hurt, Mayer would take the job from Romy and DHam in a matter of days, or even hours.

Bogey and Betts had less PAs at AA + AAA than Mayer, and Bogey only played 10 games at 3B before becoming our FT 3Bman in a playoff hunt season. We were concerned, of course, but he was "ready."

[Hitch]

A tiny fraction jump from AA, not many. 

 

I think we'll just have to agree to disagree on this one.

[Larry Cook]

Mayer’s defense is major league ready now. 
at Portland, Mayer was a better hitter than Anthony. 
the only thing Mayer needs to prove to me in the minor leagues is that he can play a full season. 
other than that, he is fully capable of playing shortstop in Boston in 5 months, if story gets injured getting out of bed in spring training 

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Mayer’s defense is major league ready now. 
at Portland, Mayer was a better hitter than Anthony. 
the only thing Mayer needs to prove to me in the minor leagues is that he can play a full season. 
other than that, he is fully capable of playing shortstop in Boston in 5 months, if story gets injured getting out of bed in spring training 

Only the injuries have held him back. 

[Larry Cook]

28 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Only the injuries have held him back. 

The first year, he tried to play through an injury and his numbers plummeted. 
since then, we have treated him with kid gloves! 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

The first year, he tried to play through an injury and his numbers plummeted. 
since then, we have treated him with kid gloves! 

Agreed.

My point has been, if he's healthy, he is ML ready.

[Larry Cook]

It should take a sweetheart deal to get any of the big 4 included in a trade! 

 

[Hugh2]

I think Campbell is more MLB ready than Mayer.  Mayer needs to cut down on the chase and learn to hit lefties.  It may be splitting hairs but you do that with top prospects.

Campbells ascension feels very Mookie-esq.  he literally went from a fringe top 30 prospect in the Sox system to a top ten prospect in all of baseball.  
 

I think Mayer needs to stay healthy, and may be more of a mid 2025 guy.  But Cambell can slide in and start in 2025

[mvp 78]

Just now, Hugh2 said:

I think Campbell is more MLB ready than Mayer.  Mayer needs to cut down on the chase and learn to hit lefties.  It may be splitting hairs but you do that with top prospects.

Campbells ascension feels very Mookie-esq.  he literally went from a fringe top 30 prospect in the Sox system to a top ten prospect in all of baseball.  
 

I think Mayer needs to stay healthy, and may be more of a mid 2025 guy.  But Cambell can slide in and start in 2025

The ascension was even quicker than Mookie's. Mookie used all of 2013 for A ball and the AFL and was a top 10 SoxProspects guy at the end of 2013 jumping 43 spots. He was then called up for good after the trade deadline in 2014. 

Campbell was out of the top 30 prior to Spring Training 2024, but was put there because of the reports they heard from the scouts they get a long with. He's now neck and neck with Roman Anthony who many think is the #1 prospect in MiLB. That was in less than one calendar year vs 18 months for Mookie. 

Mookie was younger and had an amazing run and I'm not comparing the two. I'm just giving Campbell proper kudos for what he did this year. 

[Hugh2]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The ascension was even quicker than Mookie's. Mookie used all of 2013 for A ball and the AFL and was a top 10 SoxProspects guy at the end of 2013 jumping 43 spots. He was then called up for good after the trade deadline in 2014. 

Campbell was out of the top 30 prior to Spring Training 2024, but was put there because of the reports they heard from the scouts they get a long with. He's now neck and neck with Roman Anthony who many think is the #1 prospect in MiLB. That was in less than one calendar year vs 18 months for Mookie. 

Mookie was younger and had an amazing run and I'm not comparing the two. I'm just giving Campbell proper kudos for what he did this year. 

 Not the best comp admittedly, but rather it’s reminiscent of how quickly he took off and rose

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

 Not the best comp admittedly, but rather it’s reminiscent of how quickly he took off and rose

Yeah, the closest comp I have to Kristian Campbell is Rogers Hornsby. 

[Hugh2]

17 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Yeah, the closest comp I have to Kristian Campbell is Rogers Hornsby. 

That would be fine with me.  That would make Kristian arguably one of the greatest players to ever play the game 

[Larry Cook]

Very excited to see the battle for second base between Campbell, grissom, Hamilton and romy 

the 40 man roster could get pinched from incoming free agents and minor league promotions. 
 

maybe trading 4 from the 40 man roster for crochet would be preferable to cutting guys 

[mvp 78]

48 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Very excited to see the battle for second base between Campbell, grissom, Hamilton and romy 

the 40 man roster could get pinched from incoming free agents and minor league promotions. 
 

maybe trading 4 from the 40 man roster for crochet would be preferable to cutting guys 

Not sure the CHW want 4 40 man guys for Crochet. 

[notin]

23 hours ago, Hitch said:

Again, where is the evidence that Mayer is MLB ready? Is performance in AA enough now?

 

Nobody that I've seen is saying he is likely the starting SS/2nd out of camp. Early '25 maybe, but I've not seen a single analysis that says he is likely in the major league roster out of camp?

 

He is obviously very highly rated, and a talent, but he also needs more time in the minors. This feels pretty obvious to me. *shrugs

 

Happy Thanksgiving to you, too.

Give me a definition of MLB-Ready.  Because as far as I can tell, it means something different depending on who you talk to…

 

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, notin said:

Give me a definition of MLB-Ready.  Because as far as I can tell, it means something different depending on who you talk to…

 

So do "core", as we've seen today, and oh yeah, "ace".  That's the beauty of these infinitely nebulous terms...

[notin]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Not sure the CHW want 4 40 man guys for Crochet. 

I doubt they want any.  The whole Abreu thing looks like a falsehood…

[notin]

Just now, Bellhorn04 said:

So do "core", as we've seen today, and oh yeah, "ace".  That's the beauty of these infinitely nebulous terms...

Exactly.  Which is why asking for proof a player is “MLB ready” is a straw man.  It’s a case-by-case scenario at best, and even then the folks who do it for a living are wrong rather frequently…