Article: A Plea For The Red Sox To Sign Juan Soto

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Also, not sure sure I would call Arenando a bad contract just yet. Giancarlo yes, Bogaerts doesn't even belong on that list honestly, Padres are just insane. 

Also, how many of those guys signed an extension starting on their age 26 season? Yeah, I know Stanton is one of them but remember he was an injury concern AT the time, Soto is not. 

Arenado is a little bit of a question mark, but he wasn't great the past two years and he IS overpaid. It's not horrible, but definitely not a slam dunk contract. 

Bogaerts is 100,000,000% on the list. He could wind up co-headlining with Trout. At least Trout is marketable in his city. 

[mvp 78]

11 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

They're trading Abreu more likely.  Why does Casas have to go if Soto is signed?

If VLAD is signed. 

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Or go up, could probably make it go either way depending on how many names we put on there, Soto is going near the top so I don't think we can dilute it that much. 

Not diluting it, but making it a more appropriate sample. 

[Hugh2]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Not diluting it, but making it a more appropriate sample. 

How does Xander Bogaerts make it a more appropriate sample?

[Hugh2]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Arenado is a little bit of a question mark, but he wasn't great the past two years and he IS overpaid. It's not horrible, but definitely not a slam dunk contract. 

Bogaerts is 100,000,000% on the list. He could wind up co-headlining with Trout. At least Trout is marketable in his city. 

Bogaerts was FIVE years older when heading into FA that year, comparing a 30 year old free agent to a 25 year old free agent is apples and oranges. 

[Hugh2]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If VLAD is signed. 

I don't think they sign VLAD if they're signing Soto, it's one.  I don't think he's going to get Soto money but he's going to be close.  He's going to be asking for over 500 million.  

Are the Sox going to go out and spend 1.2 billion on a LF and 1B in back to back years? I doubt it. I think it's one or the other. 

[mvp 78]

24 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

How does Xander Bogaerts make it a more appropriate sample?

He's a recent contract and a very big one. It's almost 300M!?!?

[mvp 78]

24 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Bogaerts was FIVE years older when heading into FA that year, comparing a 30 year old free agent to a 25 year old free agent is apples and oranges. 

You had a post that just said "biggest contracts ever." I didn't realize there was a 25 year old qualification. 

[mvp 78]

22 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I don't think they sign VLAD if they're signing Soto, it's one.  I don't think he's going to get Soto money but he's going to be close.  He's going to be asking for over 500 million.  

Are the Sox going to go out and spend 1.2 billion on a LF and 1B in back to back years? I doubt it. I think it's one or the other. 

Dude, just read my posts. I said that "the Sox sold Soto on a Super team that included him AND Vlad. If they did that, would they then have to trade Casas or Masa?" 

That's a different argument. The Sox said BOTH which is why I asked about Casas or Masa. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Soto could break down in his 30s and become another Pujols.

But the difference for the next half decade is this: Albert didn't start playing on his new contract with the Angels until he was age 32. Whoever signs Soto gets Juan in his prime years at age 26, 27, 28, 29, 30 and 31.

Through his age 25 season, Pujols actually had a better start to his career than Soto (37.7 WAR vs. 36.4 WAR), In his next six years Albert had 49 WAR... if Juan averages 8 WAR through the next half dozen campaigns -- with another couple World Series appearances -- can his club live with albatross seasons in the back end of his contract?

Btw: as bad as Pujols was at the end, here are 162-game averages through his age 32-37 seasons: 2.4 WAR, but 31 doubles, 31 homers, 110 RBIs. 

 

[Hugh2]

9 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Dude, just read my posts. I said that "the Sox sold Soto on a Super team that included him AND Vlad. If they did that, would they then have to trade Casas or Masa?" 

That's a different argument. The Sox said BOTH which is why I asked about Casas or Masa. 

I wrote out a response in all caps because I write caps at work and I decided I don't want you to think I'm yelling. 

Yeah, I mean it could be Casas, I'm for trading anyone for the right price, I think Casas could net a far higher return if he puts together a full season (or not). But I just don't see the need to right now.  

 

 

[Hugh2]

15 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

You had a post that just said "biggest contracts ever." I didn't realize there was a 25 year old qualification. 

It's not a qualification.  But you'd feel a whole lot better about signing a long term contract with a 25 year old over a 30 year old.  Anyone of us would. So it's different. 

[mvp 78]

13 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Soto could break down in his 30s and become another Pujols.

But the difference for the next half decade is this: Albert didn't start playing on his new contract with the Angels until he was age 32. Whoever signs Soto gets Juan in his prime years at age 26, 27, 28, 29, 30 and 31.

Through his age 25 season, Pujols actually had a better start to his career than Soto (37.7 WAR vs. 36.4 WAR), In his next six years Albert had 49 WAR... if Juan averages 8 WAR through the next half dozen campaigns -- with another couple World Series appearances -- can his club live with albatross seasons in the back end of his contract?

Btw: as bad as Pujols was at the end, here are 162-game averages through his age 32-37 seasons: 2.4 WAR, but 31 doubles, 31 homers, 110 RBIs. 

 

Sure, but Pujols signed for 10 years. Soto is going to sign for 15 years. You'll get the same declining years (if they happen).

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I wrote out a response in all caps because I write caps at work and I decided I don't want you to think I'm yelling. 

Yeah, I mean it could be Casas, I'm for trading anyone for the right price, I think Casas could net a far higher return if he puts together a full season (or not). But I just don't see the need to right now.  

 

 

So Vlad is DH, Soto is LF, Devers is 3B. They would then trade and eat Masa's salary? 

[Hugh2]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

So Vlad is DH, Soto is LF, Devers is 3B. They would then trade and eat Masa's salary? 

Again, I don't think the Sox are signing both Vlad and Soto.....maybe someone else said that earlier and I missed it sorry about that.  But I just don't see that happening. 

 

ADD.  Also, teams are going to be bidding on VLAD as a 1B, not a DH, If we are signing VLad he's a 1B, and then yes we trade Casas.  I don't think this effects MASA at all. 

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Again, I don't think the Sox are signing both Vlad and Soto.....maybe someone else said that earlier and I missed it sorry about that.  But I just don't see that happening. 

 

ADD.  Also, teams are going to be bidding on VLAD as a 1B, not a DH, If we are signing VLad he's a 1B, and then yes we trade Casas.  I don't think this effects MASA at all. 

The Red Sox presented that to Soto that they were going to do that. 

[Hugh2]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

The Red Sox presented that to Soto that they were going to do that. 

Oh well that changes things, I missed that.  Where did you see that?

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Mike Trout 426M

Stanton 324M

Xander 280M

Arenado 260M

So an 80% hit rate? Remains to be seen for some of the other guys though. That hit rate could drop a little. 

How about looking at only the highest contracts that are finished or close enough to finish and grade?

$426 Trout ('19-'30) BUST

$325 Stanton ('15-'27) ??? MEH???

$252 ARod ('01-'10) renegotiated to $275 ('08-'17) Pretty good, first one, second one????

$260 Arenado ('19-'26) Ummm.... dropped off on O, bigtime

$248 Miggy ("16-'23) Close to a BUST, if not one.

$245 Strasburg ('20-'26) Injured for most of it

$245 Rendon ('20-'26) BUST

$240 Pujols ('12-'21) BUST

$240 Cano ('14-'23) BUST

$225 Votto ('14-'13) Pretty bad for the last half, or so.

$217 Price Meh to worse

Others over $200: kershaw, Yelich, Fielder, Scherzer, Greinke

What's the hit rate, here?

 

Not quiter eady to grade, but close...

$324 Cole ('20-'28 with more to come)

$300 Machado ('19-'28)

 

[mvp 78]

17 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

How about looking at only the highest contracts that are finished or close enough to finish and grade?

 

Right because the largest contracts have mostly been handed out very recently and haven't gotten to the second half of the contract when we start to see the bad returns. 

Can't get overly excited about a 10 year contract after year 2 IMO. 

[Bellhorn04]

59 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

How about looking at only the highest contracts that are finished or close enough to finish and grade?

$426 Trout ('19-'30) BUST

$325 Stanton ('15-'27) ??? MEH???

$252 ARod ('01-'10) renegotiated to $275 ('08-'17) Pretty good, first one, second one????

$260 Arenado ('19-'26) Ummm.... dropped off on O, bigtime

$248 Miggy ("16-'23) Close to a BUST, if not one.

$245 Strasburg ('20-'26) Injured for most of it

$245 Rendon ('20-'26) BUST

$240 Pujols ('12-'21) BUST

$240 Cano ('14-'23) BUST

$225 Votto ('14-'13) Pretty bad for the last half, or so.

$217 Price Meh to worse

Others over $200: kershaw, Yelich, Fielder, Scherzer, Greinke

What's the hit rate, here?

 

Not quiter eady to grade, but close...

$324 Cole ('20-'28 with more to come)

$300 Machado ('19-'28)

 

I'd make the cutoff $200 mill.  Scherzer and Greinke were both very good.

Also I think it's fair to grade contracts that are least 5 years in and still look good, like Harper's and Mookie's.

IMHO.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Here's a quote from the "Pay Mookie!" thread, now almost four years old:

"I feel Mookie's career and contract will be defined by his performance over the next half decade, during which time I fully expect him to produce another 30 WAR and lead his new club to at least 450 wins. If he helps win another World Series, it will be worth it to that franchise and its fan base."

Man, was I ever off on that one -- Betts only has 27.4 WAR since joining LA... although, since he led all of baseball with 3.6 WAR in 55 games in 2020, maybe he would've earned another 3 WAR or so if that season lasted another hundred games.

Meanwhile, the Dodgers have won 458 in the Mookie Era, plus 31 more in the postseasons (while the Red Sox won 359 total).

[Duran Is The Man]

3 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Here's a quote from the "Pay Mookie!" thread, now almost four years old:

"I feel Mookie's career and contract will be defined by his performance over the next half decade, during which time I fully expect him to produce another 30 WAR and lead his new club to at least 450 wins. If he helps win another World Series, it will be worth it to that franchise and its fan base."

Man, was I ever off on that one -- Betts only has 27.4 WAR since joining LA... although, since he led all of baseball with 3.6 WAR in 55 games in 2020, maybe he would've earned another 3 WAR or so if that season lasted another hundred games.

Meanwhile, the Dodgers have won 458 in the Mookie Era, plus 31 more in the postseasons (while the Red Sox won 359 total).

Henry dodged a bullet there. imagine the grief fans and JH would had to endure with THAT contract.

[moonslav59]

6 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I'd make the cutoff $200 mill.  Scherzer and Greinke were both very good.

Also I think it's fair to grade contracts that are least 5 years in and still look good, like Harper's and Mookie's.

IMHO.

I almost added those two on the almost ready to grade list. I agree, they both look like they will end up as good deals for the team and fans.

[moonslav59]

6 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Here's a quote from the "Pay Mookie!" thread, now almost four years old:

"I feel Mookie's career and contract will be defined by his performance over the next half decade, during which time I fully expect him to produce another 30 WAR and lead his new club to at least 450 wins. If he helps win another World Series, it will be worth it to that franchise and its fan base."

Man, was I ever off on that one -- Betts only has 27.4 WAR since joining LA... although, since he led all of baseball with 3.6 WAR in 55 games in 2020, maybe he would've earned another 3 WAR or so if that season lasted another hundred games.

Meanwhile, the Dodgers have won 458 in the Mookie Era, plus 31 more in the postseasons (while the Red Sox won 359 total).

It takes a real man to admit being that wrong!

😜

 

[Randy Red Sox]

14 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

He will probably be paid 45M AAV. That's close to what his annual value is per FanGraphs now, but what about the last 7-8 years of the deal? Will he Albert Pujols? One injury and that contract is a freaking anchor. You could split that contract in half and get 2 really good starting pitchers for it that could give you more value. 

as much as I like Soto I am not sure he is a wise signing for the Sox

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

7 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

as much as I like Soto I am not sure he is a wise signing for the Sox

Is this really a time for a fancy new car? Looks and runs great, but the old water boiler is starting to rust, and with winter coming, heat and hot water may be more of a priority. If the pipes freeze and crack, damages could also include new walls, furniture, and carpet.

Plus, there's a bus stop right on the corner, and the train station is a block away. So do we really need a Maserati? Or even a Felger?

[Hugh2]

All the reasons people don't want Soto are all the very same reasons I wouldn't want any position player free agent the last few years.  Those are all great arguments.  But Soto is different, I also don't believe you're signing a guy like Soto if you're frugal, if the Sox do make that kind of move it's a sign they're serious about competing again and likely hints they're going to be making other moves that will presumably strengthens the pitching on this team. 

Soto isn't a luxury, he's one of the best players in baseball and he's becoming a free agent in his mid 20's.....that almost never happens, it's rare. We complain every year about the Sox not shopping at the top of the market, I welcome a return to investing heavily in the team.......if that does come to fruition. 

[Bellhorn04]

I think it's great if the Sox really are all in on Soto.  But man, beating the Yanks, Mets and Dodgers for the prize is one tough ask.  Obviously it's imperative that Juan really does have some attraction to the Sox legacy.  

As for the money part, you have to wonder what happens if Steve Cohen decides to go absolutely nutso and offer $750 mill or something like that.

[Hugh2]

21 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I think it's great if the Sox really are all in on Soto.  But man, beating the Yanks, Mets and Dodgers for the prize is one tough ask.  Obviously it's imperative that Juan really does have some attraction to the Sox legacy.  

As for the money part, you have to wonder what happens if Steve Cohen decides to go absolutely nutso and offer $750 mill or something like that.

I don't think the Dodgers are in as much as people think they are.  I think it's really down to NYY NYM and BOS.  Boston actually has a tax advantage over the city.  

If NY gave Soto 650 million the Sox would only have to offer 600 million to counter.

Soto also apparently wants to be "the man" wherever he signs, he will have that in Boston where's he will not have it in NY.  If the Sox are serious about spending again, and they've eluded in the past that they would if they thought the could compete then they can sell that to Soto.  It's probably why they pointed out their #1 farm system to him.  He's going to be coming on board and playing with this young core, and if they add pitching to the equation Boston can jump right into a window of competitiveness.  The A.L. isn't strong.........it's there if they want it. 

[Hugh2]

750 could be countered with appx $690