Article: A Plea For The Red Sox To Sign Juan Soto

[Duran Is The Man]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

My call is this:

1) Yes, we will acquire a TOTR pitcher.

2) No, there will be no offer by the Red Sox to Juan Soto.  But they will probably get it out there that they're "engaged" or "checking in" on him, as they did with Yamamoto.

Draft Kings odds on where Soto lands as of about a week ago.

Really no surprise to me. 

Interestingly, they have the Sox at 6-1 on Snell and 5-1 on Burnes, just behind the Cubs and Mets, respectively, as the favorites.

[notin]

8 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I love it when the Red Sox have stars, but Soto is not a realistic target for the Red Sox.  For one thing, that 12 year/540 million projection is the most "conservative" one I've seen.  Most estimates are in the 600 to 700 million range.    

The 3 financial behemoths of the sport, the Yankees, Mets and Dodgers, are all expected to be bidders.  Cohen and Steinbrenner have already lined up their first meetings with Boras.

I simply can't see John Henry wanting to get involved in an auction that is certain to end in a historically irrational contractual commitment.

Better to dream on Anthony and Duran as stars in the outfield and keep the focus on pitching, IMHO.

 

The Red Sox are worth $4.05 billion, third most valuable franchise in MLB. They can be a financial behemoth if they so choose…

[Maddie Landis]

10 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

This is the time of year to dream, but any Sox fan who thinks Soto is a real possibility under the ownership of John Henry is so delusional that yes, I have to laugh at it (not in a mean way, though).  I'm just surprised that Sox fans can continue to be fooled after what we've seen starting with trading Betts.

 

[smokedogg1982]

23 hours ago, jdc69 said:

I can't stand Soto, standing up there, trying to intimidate the pitcher all the time. I agree we need another big bat but we should spend money on pitching, relief pitching and a right hand batter. How about Pete Alonso?

How old do you think Soto really is. I would say 28 at the youngest. There's no way he is 26

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, smokedogg1982 said:

How old do you think Soto really is. I would say 28 at the youngest. There's no way he is 26

Now that is one heck of a rabbit hole...

[notin]

On 11/9/2024 at 10:02 AM, Bellhorn04 said:

I'll take it a step further and say I think chasing Soto would be a very bad idea.

We have 4 terrific prospects and they're all position players.

What we need is pitching and better defense.  Soto is nether.

Soto is looking for an AAV of about $50 million.  That would create havoc with the budget.  Soto and Devers would be taking up $80 million of it for a long time.  How are you going to do that, pay the pitchers and sign Anthony to an extension etc.?  Do you think Henry is going to morph into Cohen all of a sudden?

Gotta be realistic here. 

1.  Yes they are all position players, but they are all also easily tradable for pitching, which makes them a more reliable source of pitching than pitching prospects.

2.  Soto is a laughable Gold Glove nominee, but the Sox could also use a superstar talent.  Soto is just that, and playing him in LF fits in with the Boston tradition of Hall of Fame left fielders.

3.  You’ve been talking up the Sox as the third most valuable franchise in MLB.  The problem isn’t whether or not the Sox can afford him, but only whether or not they want to.  They probably don’t, but it’s a poor excuse.  Matt Fried and Corbin Burnes might give you 2 or 3 decent years on a 7 year deal.  Soto might give you 10 great/eventually good season on a 14 year deal.  The Sox need the latter more than the former…

[Bellhorn04]

15 minutes ago, notin said:

Matt Fried and Corbin Burnes might give you 2 or 3 decent years on a 7 year deal.  Soto might give you 10 great/eventually good season on a 14 year deal.  The Sox need the latter more than the former…

Fried and Burnes might get $150-200 million.

Soto might get $650-700 million.

Whichever way you go, there's going to be a pile of risk baked into the price.  Anyone can get injured any time.

There's really no sound principles on which to compare the options.  We're in the world of the irrational here, where fragile athletes get decade-plus guaranteed mega-contracts.  

I just think that $650-700 million number is way, way too high for John Henry to even consider.  After all, $350 million for Betts was obviously enough to make him very uneasy, and that wasn't forever ago.  And Betts was arguably at least as good a bet as Soto, even given their official* age difference.

* Someone else opened up the age rabbit hole, I'm just acknowledging its existence.

 

 

[notin]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Fried and Burnes might get $150-200 million.

Soto might get $650-700 million.

Whichever way you go, there's going to be a pile of risk baked into the price.  Anyone can get injured any time.

There's really no sound principles on which to compare the options.  We're in the world of the irrational here, where fragile athletes get decade-plus guaranteed mega-contracts.  

I just think that $650-700 million number is way, way too high for John Henry to even consider.  After all, $350 million for Betts was obviously enough to make him very uneasy, and that wasn't forever ago.  And Betts was arguably at least as good a bet as Soto, even given their official* age difference.

* Someone else opened up the age rabbit hole, I'm just acknowledging its existence.

 

 

A Betts vs Soto argument is another type of rabbit hole.  But regardless of which one is better, the reality is one of those two superstars in unavailable, and this lack of availability has created some unrest among the money-paying fanbase directed solely at the owner.

If Henry wants to create an unrivaled upswing in enthusiasm, no player - and definitely not Burnes nor Fried - is going to create it more than Soto.

Soto is expensive, and more expensive than Betts.  But the money is going up.  If you don’t pay now, what are you waiting for?  Does anyone think the next 26yo free agent superstar will be cheaper?

[jdc69]

5 hours ago, smokedogg1982 said:

How old do you think Soto really is. I would say 28 at the youngest. There's no way he is 26

I don't know. Why do you ask? 

[smokedogg1982]

30 minutes ago, jdc69 said:

I don't know. Why do you ask? 

There's been a lot of speculation online about his age. I have heard estimates as high as 31. 

[jdc69]

52 minutes ago, smokedogg1982 said:

There's been a lot of speculation online about his age. I have heard estimates as high as 31. 

I see. I've only heard about them doing that for little league players but I dont doubt it. He's good and was the best player in two WS but he's just too much money for one player and doesn't even cover our weaknesses. 

[notin]

15 hours ago, smokedogg1982 said:

There's been a lot of speculation online about his age. I have heard estimates as high as 31. 

And what are all these people who never met Juan Soto basing this on?

[Bellhorn04]

17 hours ago, notin said:

A Betts vs Soto argument is another type of rabbit hole.  But regardless of which one is better, the reality is one of those two superstars in unavailable, and this lack of availability has created some unrest among the money-paying fanbase directed solely at the owner.

If Henry wants to create an unrivaled upswing in enthusiasm, no player - and definitely not Burnes nor Fried - is going to create it more than Soto.

Soto is expensive, and more expensive than Betts.  But the money is going up.  If you don’t pay now, what are you waiting for?  Does anyone think the next 26yo free agent superstar will be cheaper?

Hey, I'd love to have him too.  But bidding against the Yankees, Mets and Dodgers is not really a formula for getting a fair deal.

This is so reminiscent of the Yamamoto talk last year.  

Maybe Anthony will be a superstar and they'll lock him  up early.

[Bellhorn04]

36 minutes ago, notin said:

And what are all these people who never met Juan Soto basing this on?

Yeah, I took a quick look into it and there doesn't seem to be any evidence other than he was exceptionally big and strong for his age.     

[Hugh2]

I certainly would be excited if the Sox sign Soto, and they have the room for it in their budget.  My issue is, if they plan on continuing to stay under the luxury tax, they won't have room for much else and that means trading top prospects. 

I think you pay for a guy like Soto going $45 million plus a year because you're paying a guy the league minimum elsewhere on the roster.  That's how elite teams like LA do it, even though they spend big, they have good homegrown players built around their FA superstars. 

I don't want the big 4 touched.  I think you trade Duran with Soto on the roster and get a TOTRS, between him/Crawford/and prospects 6-10 I think you can get a lot. 

If the Sox were willing to return to the "hey will go above the Luxury tax for a year or two" they could still sign Soto and go out and get guys like Fried/Turner and still be in a position to reset the luxury tax in two years.  If you want to do that and keep Duran, I think you can make Rafaela your super utility guy and roll with an outfield of 

LF SOTO

CF Duran

RF Anthony

If that's your team, adding a pitcher and having multiple legit superstars around a growing young core, this team will be light years better next year BUT.......John Henry. 

[Bellhorn04]

I'm honestly surprised how many folks are entertaining this as a real world possibility. 

For John Henry to out-crazy Steve Cohen would be the most shocking and hilarious 180% turn by a sports owner in history.

One big real world problem is that Henry has other owners to answer to, whereas Cohen does not. 

[notin]

7 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I'm honestly surprised how many folks are entertaining this as a real world possibility. 

For John Henry to out-crazy Steve Cohen would be the most shocking and hilarious 180% turn by a sports owner in history.

One big real world problem is that Henry has other owners to answer to, whereas Cohen does not. 

I don’t think anyone expects the Sox to sign Soto.  But the premise that they cannot afford him is also a complete fallacy.  I don’t expect anything more than a cursory attempt to sign him that serves two purposes.  1) Keeps that bidding elevated, if only slightly, and 2) gets that all important link to him in the media that they tried….

[win red sox]

22 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I certainly would be excited if the Sox sign Soto, and they have the room for it in their budget.  My issue is, if they plan on continuing to stay under the luxury tax, they won't have room for much else and that means trading top prospects. 

I think you pay for a guy like Soto going $45 million plus a year because you're paying a guy the league minimum elsewhere on the roster.  That's how elite teams like LA do it, even though they spend big, they have good homegrown players built around their FA superstars. 

I don't want the big 4 touched.  I think you trade Duran with Soto on the roster and get a TOTRS, between him/Crawford/and prospects 6-10 I think you can get a lot. 

If the Sox were willing to return to the "hey will go above the Luxury tax for a year or two" they could still sign Soto and go out and get guys like Fried/Turner and still be in a position to reset the luxury tax in two years.  If you want to do that and keep Duran, I think you can make Rafaela your super utility guy and roll with an outfield of 

LF SOTO

CF Duran

RF Anthony

If that's your team, adding a pitcher and having multiple legit superstars around a growing young core, this team will be light years better next year BUT.......John Henry. 

This is the way. 

1. Sign Soto.

2. Trade for Crochet. I think this can be done without touching the top 5.

3. Sign 2 backend bullpen pieces. 

4. Sign a catcher and rhb, something like Kelly and Grichuk.

5. Hope that Story/Yoshida have a productive year and maybe the financial sting of moving them next year will not be that painful. Keep Mayer in AAA.

6. This can all be done while staying under the the CBT threshold of 241M.

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

I don’t think anyone expects the Sox to sign Soto.  But the premise that they cannot afford him is also a complete fallacy.

That's probably because "afford" isn't the right word.  The question is whether $650-700 million for any player is a rational expenditure.  I think John Henry's opinion is that it is not.  He already demonstrated this at a much smaller number with Betts.

[notin]

16 hours ago, jdc69 said:

I see. I've only heard about them doing that for little league players but I dont doubt it. He's good and was the best player in two WS but he's just too much money for one player and doesn't even cover our weaknesses. 

I can agree Soto is probably too old for Little League…

[Bellhorn04]

Mike Trout is out there as another example that even the best of the best can have their careers derailed any time.  And Trout was a better player than Soto is.  And Soto will be getting about 50% more money than Trout's extension was.

[notin]

8 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

That's probably because "afford" isn't the right word.  The question is whether $650-700 million for any player is a rational expenditure.  I think John Henry's opinion is that it is not.  He already demonstrated this at a much smaller number with Betts.

True, but at that time Betts was among the most expensive players in MLB.  Now he’s making Corey Seager money.  
 

If the argument is its irrational, then the Sox are likely out on all top tier free agents, since I don’t see Burnes or Fried signing for rational money either…

[notin]

3 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Mike Trout is out there as another example that even the best of the best can have their careers derailed any time.  And Trout was a better player than Soto is.  And Soto will be getting about 50% more money than Trout's extension was.

Or Ohtani.   Already in year two, there are reports he might not be back for opening day.  Not to mention his two-way status is hanging by a thread-thin tendon in his elbow that puts his entire career on the mound one pitch away from an abrupt ending.  Something the Dodgers knew even before negotiations started.

 

But the Sox are at least in a similar position with lots of minimum wage talent right on the cusp of MLB that does make Soto more affordable, even if they don’t pursue him…

[mvp 78]

23 hours ago, smokedogg1982 said:

How old do you think Soto really is. I would say 28 at the youngest. There's no way he is 26

Whatever his age says on bref. There is an outspoken agent on TikTok who has spoken out against other latin ballplayers and their ages (Pujols for example) but states unequivocally that Soto is legit. 

Automatically assuming Soto isn't the age he is because he's so good, it pretty unfair to him. Their were rumors about Pujols going back to his FA signing with the Angels. There are no real rumors about Soto, just a lot of fans that probably wish the game looked a little differently. 

[Hugh2]

25 minutes ago, win red sox said:

This is the way. 

1. Sign Soto.

2. Trade for Crochet. I think this can be done without touching the top 5.

3. Sign 2 backend bullpen pieces. 

4. Sign a catcher and rhb, something like Kelly and Grichuk.

5. Hope that Story/Yoshida have a productive year and maybe the financial sting of moving them next year will not be that painful. Keep Mayer in AAA.

6. This can all be done while staying under the the CBT threshold of 241M.

 

 

In my offseason roster page I picked Crochet to be on the 26 man and traded for, but the more I think about it the more I do not like him. 

He's never pitched more than 146 innings his entire life, now that may not mean anything, but he could be in for an injury, we have no ideal if he's the type of guy who can do 150-175 or more year in and year out.  That's risky. 

He also said at the trade deadline he would refuse to pitch in the playoffs if traded for and not extended.  That was a red flag that threw a lot of teams off.  That kinds sounds a little crappy and entitled, I wouldn't mind him in Boston, but I don't think you can let a guy like that be your ace.  That's why I'm back on the FA wagon. 

[Hugh2]

Sorry about the Crochet rant, this thread should be about Soto. 

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Yeah, I took a quick look into it and there doesn't seem to be any evidence other than he was exceptionally big and strong for his age.     

An ultra-elite athlete then? What a surprise. We don't know how he'll age, but there have always been guys that were absolute units at age 18.

[mvp 78]

13 minutes ago, notin said:

True, but at that time Betts was among the most expensive players in MLB.  Now he’s making Corey Seager money.  
 

If the argument is its irrational, then the Sox are likely out on all top tier free agents, since I don’t see Burnes or Fried signing for rational money either…

Betts signed a below market deal!

[mvp 78]

34 minutes ago, notin said:

I don’t think anyone expects the Sox to sign Soto.  But the premise that they cannot afford him is also a complete fallacy.  I don’t expect anything more than a cursory attempt to sign him that serves two purposes.  1) Keeps that bidding elevated, if only slightly, and 2) gets that all important link to him in the media that they tried….

Brez should sign Soto while Henry isn't paying attention. 

If they keep underspending, you know where the money is going and where the priorities lie:

Last July, the Boston Planning and Development Agency approved Fenway Corners, “a $1.6 billion mixed-use project that will bring offices, labs, apartments, a slew of retailers, and street-level upgrades along Jersey Street, Brookline Avenue, and Van Ness Street,” according to the Boston Globe. The construction on the eight-building build has not yet begun.

“Obviously, the brand new 5,000-person MGM Music Hall that sits just behind the right field bleachers opened about two years ago and has really enhanced the neighborhood,” Kennedy said. “We have not broken ground on our Fenway Corners project yet given the environment for real estate development. We’re not there yet, but hopefully we’re inching closer to that. If you have a chance to look on the BPDA’s website, you can see what Jersey Street is going to look like down the road with retail hotels and residential. I just think this neighborhood is going to continue to be upgraded into 2025 and beyond.”

[Hugh2]

24 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Betts signed a below market deal!

Was it below market?

At the time it was the 2nd largest amount of money ever given. 

It was signed during Covid, when there was a ton of uncertainty in the world and in sports.  That might have motivated him to sign that contract. 

I will always wonder, if in a non covid reality, if Betts would have gone to FA.  I think he would have but we will never really know.