Rumor: MLBTR Top Trade Candidates: Wilyer Abreu

[Brock Beauchamp]

MLB Trade Rumors released their top 35 trade candidates for the 2024-2025 offseason. The only Red Sox player to make the list is outfielder Wilyer Abreu.

There is consternation from both within and without the organization that the Red Sox need to become less left-handed in 2025. While they have several options to accomplish this goal (Abreu, Triston Casas, and Jarren Duran), Abreu is probably the easiest choice of the three: Casas is a work in progress, Duran is wildly valuable in the here and now, and Abreu sits in the middle. He carries significant value today after a strong rookie campaign (114 OPS+), has lengthy team control at the minimum salary, and can be flipped to fill a need in 2025 without causing catastrophic damage to the Red Sox lineup.

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[moonslav59]

I've been mentioning his name for months, as a trade candidate. His splits are awful, and we have Anthony as ML ready.

One can argue Rafaela should be the odd man out, and his splits are pretty even, so he is no LHP killer, but I think Abreu brings back a better pitcher, and Rafaela's CF defense may be second to none. The fact that Duran plays excellent CF defense, and Anthony might, too, may make the point moot.

I'd be happy with...

LF: Abreu- Ref platoon

CF: Duran

RF: Anthony

 

 

[mvp 78]

Trade Duran and Abreu for pitching.

LF: Soto

CF: Rafaela

RF: Anthony

[moonslav59]

28 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Trade Duran and Abreu for pitching.

LF: Soto

CF: Rafaela

RF: Anthony

Then, you woke up.

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Then, you woke up.

I have 104 days to sleep. 

[moonslav59]

The left-handed tilt of the Sox 13 everyday players might be greatly changed by adding Campbell and a good splits in the minors, Anthony, plus the return of Story.

Here are the worst splits vs LHPs in 2024 with 50+ PAs:

.532 DHam (another guy, I've mentioned as trade bait, since we can add Campbell and or Grissom to the 26.)

.532 Abreu (Ref platoon in '25?)

.565 Yoshida (Ref platoon in '25?) .669 career begs for a platoon as a DH.

.603 Rafaela (revers splits doesn't help)

.665 Duran (gotta hope he improves.)

.686 Devers (.739 career- not a concern)

.748 Casas  (.772 career- not a concern)

Grissom is .727 career vs LHPs, so maybe a DHam-Grissom 2B platoon could work well.

 

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I have 104 days to sleep. 

A Soto trade would remind me of the Manny signing. It would be about as bold as we can be. I'd consider it as more of a blockbuster move than the Price signing and  the Sale trade.

I think it would go a long way at repairing the hurt feelings from losing Betts, but nothing more than a ring would really help heal that open wound.

[Old Red]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Trade Duran and Abreu for pitching.

LF: Soto

CF: Rafaela

RF: Anthony

Agree on the trades, but I’d settle for Teoscar in LF

[notin]

8 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Trade Duran and Abreu for pitching.

LF: Soto

CF: Rafaela

RF: Anthony

The mere thought makes my liver quiver and my bladder gladder…

[notin]

7 hours ago, Old Red said:

Agree on the trades, but I’d settle for Teoscar in LF

Teoscar didn’t want Boston last time…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

6 hours ago, notin said:

Teoscar didn’t want Boston last time…

Teoscar still says he likes Fenway, but didn't LA give him more money?

As for Soto, the last Hall of Famer in his prime at his age about to become a free agent was Mookie. In the batter's box, no one is a bigger threat than Juan Soto -- a hitter who won't chase and will crush anything in the zone.

The Red Sox front office hasn't been all-in on building a winner since trading Betts, focusing instead on fermenting from the bottom up. If the Sox were beer, they'd be lager, not ale (obviously why they can't compete in the ALE).

The club is finally showing signs of developing talent at MLB minimum wages in most cases. So why would ownership -- on the verge of attaining such conservative goals -- all of sudden start splurging on expensive superstars?

Especially when its biggest needs, as usual, are on the mound?

[Hugh2]

16 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I've been mentioning his name for months, as a trade candidate. His splits are awful, and we have Anthony as ML ready.

One can argue Rafaela should be the odd man out, and his splits are pretty even, so he is no LHP killer, but I think Abreu brings back a better pitcher, and Rafaela's CF defense may be second to none. The fact that Duran plays excellent CF defense, and Anthony might, too, may make the point moot.

I'd be happy with...

LF: Abreu- Ref platoon

CF: Duran

RF: Anthony

 

 

The thing about Rafaela is how bad his plate discipline is and the underlying data doesn't elude to someone who got unlucky and is going to see higher numbers.  He's a got a little pop and gives you something here and there but his value is on DEFENSE. 

I'm not trying to knock him, I like Ceddanne, but my point is the profile of an elite defensive fielder who offers very little at the plate is not one that gets paid.  He wouldn't be heavily rewarded in arbitration, so his contract and extension might not be seen as an asset to a team trading for him, actually SOME teams might view it as a liability.  

I truly don't understand the decision to extend him so early, but what I'm getting at here is I don't think he's very movable at all, at least if you're expecting anything of value back in return. 

I think Rafaela is one of those guys, given circumstances that can provide much more value to the Sox than anywhere else. 

[Hugh2]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

So why would ownership -- on the verge of attaining such conservative goals -- all of sudden start splurging on expensive superstars?

Especially when its biggest needs, as usual, are on the mound?

Because you can.  I would argue this is the PERFECT time to do so.  When you get to pay Roman Anthony, Bryan Bello, and Tristan Casas close to a million dollars a year that saves you the money TO spend it elsewhere and build a super team without going over the luxury tax limit if you choose to continue to stay below. 

Building young talent and never spending is small market team, Red Sox may not be trying to be a big market team any more but they're still a mid market team, and those guys jump in the water from time to time.  You strike when the iron is hot, and that may be either this season, or next offseason. 

But I agree with your last sentence, which is why I'm a huge advocate of the Sox spending big on FA pitchers (Tanner Scott, Corbin Burnes)

[notin]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Teoscar still says he likes Fenway, but didn't LA give him more money?

As for Soto, the last Hall of Famer in his prime at his age about to become a free agent was Mookie. In the batter's box, no one is a bigger threat than Juan Soto -- a hitter who won't chase and will crush anything in the zone.

The Red Sox front office hasn't been all-in on building a winner since trading Betts, focusing instead on fermenting from the bottom up. If the Sox were beer, they'd be lager, not ale (obviously why they can't compete in the ALE).

The club is finally showing signs of developing talent at MLB minimum wages in most cases. So why would ownership -- on the verge of attaining such conservative goals -- all of sudden start splurging on expensive superstars?

Especially when its biggest needs, as usual, are on the mound?

Last time the Sox offered Teoscar two years and he told them he needed three.

Then the Dodgers offered him one year and he asked “where do I sign?”

He gave harder criteria to the Sox - not a sign we’re on his Preferred Destination List…

 

[Hugh2]

8 hours ago, notin said:

The mere thought makes my liver quiver and my bladder gladder…

Does it make your back crack, does it put more cut in your strut and more glide in your stride?

[Hugh2]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

Last time the Sox offered Teoscar two years and he told them he needed three.

Then the Dodgers offered him one year and he asked “where do I sign?”

He gave harder criteria to the Sox - not a sign we’re on his Preferred Destination List…

 

Easy, $23 million was probably much more per year than anyone was offering him for 2-3. 

He was faced with the decision of taking a one year deal to rebuild his value and possibly making more money on a 3+  year deal in his age 33 season and he got to do it playing for a contender. 

It looks like his gamble paid off big time.  He got a ring, he had a great season, and probably gets a 3 year+ contract now for more money than he got last year and I bet you it's with a lesser team than LA. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

9 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Because you can.  I would argue this is the PERFECT time to do so.  When you get to pay Roman Anthony, Bryan Bello, and Tristan Casas close to a million dollars a year that saves you the money TO spend it elsewhere and build a super team without going over the luxury tax limit if you choose to continue to stay below. 

Building young talent and never spending is small market team, Red Sox may not be trying to be a big market team any more but they're still a mid market team, and those guys jump in the water from time to time.  You strike when the iron is hot, and that may be either this season, or next offseason. 

But I agree with your last sentence, which is why I'm a huge advocate of the Sox spending big on FA pitchers (Tanner Scott, Corbin Burnes)

A front office and ownership all-in on not spending big may not view this as the perfect time.

Yes, the Red Sox have some young talent in the majors and top-rated prospects. But all Henry and Co. have to point to are guys like Benintendi and Moncada, who were each once rated as the best overall prospect in baseball by various sources.

That pair of now-White Sox mediocrities could be evidence that Boston will wait until the Fab Four makes the majors and establishes an All-Star core of a legitimate contender. That won't happen overnight, and very well may take more than one year.

Fans should be prepared for another lackluster offseason... maybe several more.

[notin]

20 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Easy, $23 million was probably much more per year than anyone was offering him for 2-3. 

He was faced with the decision of taking a one year deal to rebuild his value and possibly making more money on a 3+  year deal in his age 33 season and he got to do it playing for a contender. 

It looks like his gamble paid off big time.  He got a ring, he had a great season, and probably gets a 3 year+ contract now for more money than he got last year and I bet you it's with a lesser team than LA. 

Rebuild his value?

He went from being a 2.8 bWAR player in 2022 to bring a 2.1 bWAR player in 2023 while playing in a ballpark that every CBO knows surpresses RHH.

And at age 32, he is exiting his prime and that extra season of age becomes more limiting than a 0.7 bWAR decrease.

If he wanted to rebuild his value, wouldn’t Fenway be a better place than LA for a RHH?  Why not ask the Sox for ONE year instead of three?  

[mvp 78]

13 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

That pair of now-White Sox mediocrities

Who? 

[RBMunkin]

Yeah, get rid of the best outfielder. Good plan. NOT!

[Hugh2]

3 minutes ago, notin said:

Rebuild his value?

He went from being a 2.8 bWAR player in 2022 to bring a 2.1 bWAR player in 2023 while playing in a ballpark that every CBO knows surpresses RHH.

And at age 32, he is exiting his prime and that extra season of age becomes more limiting than a 0.7 bWAR decrease.

If he wanted to rebuild his value, wouldn’t Fenway be a better place than LA for a RHH?  Why not ask the Sox for ONE year instead of three?  

There's plenty of information out there providing the contrary, although it also largely is due to the fact that his market collapsed, Boston offered 14 million per year, LA 23.  

 

You can't compare the two, unless boston was offering 2 years 45.  But only player of his caliber would have taken the one year deal and assumed he could make more than $9 million per year the next year. 

La offered more money in retrospect, assuming he didn't get injured this year and could never play again.  Assuming he could get more than 1 year $9 million LA offered more money to Teoscar.

That's why he signed with LA, not because he didn't want to come to Boston.  I'm sure he was much happier to go to LA and win but he would go to Boston in a heartbeat if we offered more money. 

It often comes down to money. 

[Bellhorn04]

39 minutes ago, notin said:

Last time the Sox offered Teoscar two years and he told them he needed three.

Then the Dodgers offered him one year and he asked “where do I sign?”

He gave harder criteria to the Sox - not a sign we’re on his Preferred Destination List…

 

C'mon man, you're leaving out the dollars.

The Red Sox offer was 2 years/$28 million, or $14 million per.

The Dodgers deal was 1 year/$23.5 million with some deferred, present value $21 million.

And the Dodgers obviously a more favorable destination for baseball and weather reasons.

Just more Interest Kings close-but-no-cigar offseason buffoonery from the Sox.

 

[Hugh2]

His career AWAY OPS is only .033 higher and he actually hits just as many home runs at home than he does on the road. 

According to Fangraphs Teoscars value went from:

2021 $32.1

2022 $23.3

2023 $15.6

You can't look at hose number and not say one good year substantially rebuilds his value after having a good season in 2024.  

[Old Red]

8 hours ago, notin said:

Teoscar didn’t want Boston last time…

Teoscar didn’t want Boston, or didn’t like the contract? Two entirely different things. Teoscar said he loved Boston, and it was one of his favorite teams, but didn’t like what they were offering. He made not only the right, and smart move money wise, but won a ring to boot. Teoscar chose &23.5M for one year compared to $28M for two, and now he will most likely end up making a lot more money for the two years, and beyond than the $28M he would have gotten for two years with the Sox. Smart move all the way around money wise, and playing wise, and that’s pretty easy to see.

[Old Red]

7 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

C'mon man, you're leaving out the dollars.

The Red Sox offer was 2 years/$28 million, or $14 million per.

The Dodgers deal was 1 year/$23.5 million with some deferred, present value $21 million.

And the Dodgers obviously a more favorable destination for baseball and weather reasons.

Just more Interest Kings close-but-no-cigar offseason buffoonery from the Sox.

 

Leaving out the money was leaving out the most important thing..🙈🤭

[mvp 78]

19 minutes ago, RBMunkin said:

Yeah, get rid of the best outfielder. Good plan. NOT!

We'll acquire great pitching by trading leftover parts then! 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

All free agent signings ultimately come down to which team shows the most respect.

Ask any pro athlete.

[Bellhorn04]

13 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

All free agent signings ultimately come down to which team shows the most respect.

Ask any pro athlete.

With a lot of players it's just highest number wins, no question.

Some of them get to pick where they want to play, and get more dough than expected to boot, like Yamamoto.

[Old Red]

20 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

With a lot of players it's just highest number wins, no question.

Some of them get to pick where they want to play, and get more dough than expected to boot, like Yamamoto.

And if the Red Sox would have offered Teoscar a bigger number he most likely would have played for the Red Sox this past year. 

[notin]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

C'mon man, you're leaving out the dollars.

The Red Sox offer was 2 years/$28 million, or $14 million per.

The Dodgers deal was 1 year/$23.5 million with some deferred, present value $21 million.

And the Dodgers obviously a more favorable destination for baseball and weather reasons.

Just more Interest Kings close-but-no-cigar offseason buffoonery from the Sox.

 

I left out the money because the only comment I heard from Teoscar’s camp was he wanted more years, not more years plus more money.  He might have wanted both and explicitly told the Sox as much, but that wasn’t reported.

If years mattered to him as much as the stories impressed upon us, they mattered more in Boston than in LA.  That’s not a sign he wanted Boston…