Article: The Red Sox Should Consider Trading Jarren Duran For An Ace

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Clubs that might deal for peak Duran are most likely already contenders looking for another star player to help get them deeper into October. If so, they're not trading their ace starting pitcher... so foegeddaboudit.

The best Red Sox fans can hope for is an aging arm on a salary dump.

The best Red Sox execs can hope for is a young pitcher with a rating that was once high on baseball's prospect list... with the potential to someday develop into an ace.

[moonslav59]

59 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

yes

How many aces are in MLB?

Tell me when to stop, or where you draw the line. (Note: many "aces" have just 1-2, maybe 3 years of control, so 4 years of Duran will not get 1-2 years of an ace?)

I'm going mostly by 2023-2024 best numbers...

Skubal, Skenes, Wheeler, Webb, Sonny Gray, Sale

Kirby, Cease, Gallen, F Valdez, Gausman, Steele

Burnes, Cole, Snell, Bibee, Castillo, Strider

Maybe 18 is the cut-off?

Then... (#19 to 50)

Ragans, Lugo, Pablo Lopez, Gilbert, Eflin, Nola, Glasnow, M Keller, Fried

H Greene, C Sanchez, Kikuchi, Wacha, Suarez, Ryan, Ober, Houck, Nate, Peralta

Crochet, Lopez, M King, Flaherty, Monty, Mikolas, B Miller,N Martinez, Singer, Berrios, Bassitt, Fedde, Luzardo

 

[smokedogg1982]

Sure trade the only player on the team that didn't stop hitting consistently. I know he slowed down in September. He ran out of gas/started trying to do too much. Next season after July he should get 1-2 off days per month.

[moonslav59]

13 minutes ago, smokedogg1982 said:

Sure trade the only player on the team that didn't stop hitting consistently. I know he slowed down in September. He ran out of gas/started trying to do too much. Next season after July he should get 1-2 off days per month.

Just so you know, I'm not for trading Duran, but I'll trade anyone for a better return.

Duran is not the best player in MLB. His 4 years of control do make him more valuable than a few players who might be better than him but have less control years or a huge contract.

Would you trade 4 years of Duran for 5 years of Skenes? Just wondering.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

47 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Just so you know, I'm not for trading Duran, but I'll trade anyone for a better return.

Duran is not the best player in MLB. His 4 years of control do make him more valuable than a few players who might be better than him but have less control years or a huge contract.

Would you trade 4 years of Duran for 5 years of Skenes? Just wondering.

Loaded question... how about for 5 years of Sale on the Sox?

Yes -- for 5 Sale WHITE Sox years.

No -- for 5 Sale RED Sox years.

[harmony]

5 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

Casas is the only one of those that could help bring back a SP..  how about Story to Seattle for Castillo ?

Would three years of Trevor Story at $75 million land the Opening Day starter for a loaded Seattle rotation?

That trade has about the same chance of happening as a trade of one year of the righthanded bat of Mitch Haniger at $15.5 million for Triston Casas.

Nil.

[oldtimer]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Just so you know, I'm not for trading Duran, but I'll trade anyone for a better return.

Duran is not the best player in MLB. His 4 years of control do make him more valuable than a few players who might be better than him but have less control years or a huge contract.

Would you trade 4 years of Duran for 5 years of Skenes? Just wondering.

Would you trade Devers? As unpopular as that sounds, it would certainly get a good return but would anyone take that salary?

[moonslav59]

27 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Loaded question... how about for 5 years of Sale on the Sox?

Yes -- for 5 Sale WHITE Sox years.

No -- for 5 Sale RED Sox years.

Anybody on my list worth Duran?

I'd say the 1-2 years pitchers: no.  I'd say the 2-3 year pitchers with big contracts: no.

When you look at 3-4 year pitchers at low or arb costs, I'm listening. The 4-5 year pre-arb>arb  pitchers in the top groups, I'd be leaning to a yes: Skenes would be a yes. I haven't looked at others w 4-5 low cost years left.

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, oldtimer said:

Would you trade Devers? As unpopular as that sounds, it would certainly get a good return but would anyone take that salary?

The high salary would mean we would not get a mega return.

[Randy Red Sox]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Just so you know, I'm not for trading Duran, but I'll trade anyone for a better return.

Duran is not the best player in MLB. His 4 years of control do make him more valuable than a few players who might be better than him but have less control years or a huge contract.

Would you trade 4 years of Duran for 5 years of Skenes? Just wondering.

of course but not a chance in hell the Tigers do that

[Randy Red Sox]

1 hour ago, harmony said:

Would three years of Trevor Story at $75 million land the Opening Day starter for a loaded Seattle rotation?

That trade has about the same chance of happening as a trade of one year of the righthanded bat of Mitch Haniger at $15.5 million for Triston Casas.

Nil.

Castillo is at best the #4 SP in the Mariners rotation today.  He got the opening day start out not respect. Both players are close to the same age with fairly similar contracts and both fit the needs of each team. There are FAR dumber trade suggestions on this forum than this.

[harmony]

2 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

Castillo is at best the #4 SP in the Mariners rotation today.  He got the opening day start out not respect. Both players are close to the same age with fairly similar contracts and both fit the needs of each team. There are FAR dumber trade suggestions on this forum than this.

What need do the Mariners have for a nearly 32-year-old infielder owed $77.5 million after posting 0.9 fWAR over the past two seasons?

[smokedogg1982]

6 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Just so you know, I'm not for trading Duran, but I'll trade anyone for a better return.

Duran is not the best player in MLB. His 4 years of control do make him more valuable than a few players who might be better than him but have less control years or a huge contract.

Would you trade 4 years of Duran for 5 years of Skenes? Just wondering.

Sure or Skubal for that matter but that's not realistic 

[mvp 78]

11 hours ago, oldtimer said:

Would you trade Devers? As unpopular as that sounds, it would certainly get a good return but would anyone take that salary?

It wouldn't get a good return because of that salary.

[mvp 78]

I agree with the premise of the article. It would just be hard to find a trade partner. Might need a 3 team deal. 

[mvp 78]

6 hours ago, smokedogg1982 said:

Sure or Skubal for that matter but that's not realistic 

I don't think Duran is worth Skubal or Skenes. Duran is probably worth a Tanner Houck equivalent. 

[jad]

Yup.  ID your best players and get rid of them.  Like all things, it works about half the time,  Don't worry about the fans; they don't count.

[Bellhorn04]

It's not something that has to be done.  There are other ways to get good starting pitchers.  And pitchers are the riskiest commodity of them all.

It's a bad idea.

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

It's not something that has to be done.  There are other ways to get good starting pitchers.  And pitchers are the riskiest commodity of them all.

It's a bad idea.

I think the idea of the article is fair. It's just "they should CONSIDER a Duran for Kirby OR Gilbert trade." I think there are valid questions about 2024 being a career year for Duran. An ankle or knee injury to Duran would have the same impact as an elbow injury to Gilbert. 

[smokedogg1982]

18 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I don't think Duran is worth Skubal or Skenes. Duran is probably worth a Tanner Houck equivalent. 

Right and I would not move the most productive bat on the team last season for another Houck not that I dislike Tanner Houck

[Bellhorn04]

I don't think this is how a team with the resources of the Red Sox should be addressing their needs.   

[Bellhorn04]

Just think about all the effort that was put in by Duran and by the Red Sox to get him to this point.  He was being virtually written off as a non-major leaguer two years ago.  

 

[mvp 78]

16 minutes ago, smokedogg1982 said:

Right and I would not move the most productive bat on the team last season for another Houck not that I dislike Tanner Houck

Seems like Breslow wants to acquire a guy a year before he turns into an ace. Would it take Duran to acquire him? Maybe. I don't think that's the trade he makes though. Lots of rumors about Casas right now too, but I don't see that one either. 

[mvp 78]

16 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I don't think this is how a team with the resources of the Red Sox should be addressing their needs.   

It's what we're stuck talking about when the owner isn't committed to spending anymore. 

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

It's what we're stuck talking about when the owner isn't committed to spending anymore. 

That is the unvarnished truth.

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

That is the unvarnished truth.

The owner has put all his eggs in the big 3 (now big 4) basket and it'd be a complete surprise if he trades any of them. He doesn't want to spend big dollars in free agency. How else would they acquire a TOTR starter?!?!?

[mvp 78]

We're at the point where we're not advocating for what they should do, but what we think they may do under their own dumb constraints. 

Perfect offseason would be TOTR starter, two really good relievers, deal Masa, backup defensive catcher.

[Brock Beauchamp]

23 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

1) If 2024 was Duran's best season (very possible) it doesn't automatically mean he's going to go back to being a 1-2 WAR player and stay there.

Even if Duran peaked in 2024 - and he probably did - trading him out of a pure value move is Rays-like... and the Red Sox should not emulate that side of the Rays organization. They don't need to, it's one of their inherent advantages over teams like the Rays, Brewers, et al.

If Duran drops to being a four win player, that's still incredibly valuable and the kind of player you keep around if you want to contend. Go out and buy an ace or trade some prospects, you don't need to dip into the MLB squad.

[smokedogg1982]

22 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Seems like Breslow wants to acquire a guy a year before he turns into an ace. Would it take Duran to acquire him? Maybe. I don't think that's the trade he makes though. Lots of rumors about Casas right now too, but I don't see that one either. 

I think they move Abreyu myself. If Bres wants to go damaged goods he should definitely call up the diamondbacks about Montgomery. I think he will be better when he gets a spring training instead of signing in April.

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, smokedogg1982 said:

I think they move Abreyu myself. If Bres wants to go damaged goods he should definitely call up the diamondbacks about Montgomery. I think he will be better when he gets a spring training instead of signing in April.

Rumor had it the Red Sox weren't really interested in Montgomery because they didn't think highly of his stuff.