Article: Why Wilyer Abreu Doesn’t Fit The 2025 Red Sox Roster

[Bellhorn04]

Not offering complete player Mookie market value and then paying almost the same money to incomplete player Devers - it's all a part of the warped thought processes since Henry had his breakdown in 2019.

[notin]

10 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

and it's year after year after year. it's not like started out great and got better. he has been bad from the start. maybe he and Casas platoon DH/1B and let Mayer or Campbell play third. Matt Chapman would have been nice.

I was all on top of Chapman last year as a solution.  But he wasn’t in the budget.

I think I’d prefer to try Romy or Grissom over Mayer (who is needed to over Story injuries) or Campbell (who could move to 2b if Grissom takes third)…

[Old Red]

3 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Not offering complete player Mookie market value and then paying almost the same money to incomplete player Devers - it's all a part of the warped thought processes since Henry had his breakdown in 2019.

To this day we as fans don’t know the whole Mookie saga, and all we know is he is gone. What did they offer Mookie, and what didn’t they offer Mookie. Did Mookie want to stay, or didn’t he want to stay. Like I’ve always said Raffy got the money, because he was the last man standing. Devers Forever, or Never Devers take your pick.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Duran Is The Man said:

and it's year after year after year. it's not like started out great and got better. he has been bad from the start. maybe he and Casas platoon DH/1B and let Mayer or Campbell play third. Matt Chapman would have been nice.

I really like the idea of Campbell or Mayer at 3B. Of course, if Story or Mayer get injured, maybe we can't afford to spare one at 3B, but we'd still have a Grissom-DHam platoon at 2B, so why not give it a try?

[notin]

37 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I really like the idea of Campbell or Mayer at 3B. Of course, if Story or Mayer get injured, maybe we can't afford to spare one at 3B, but we'd still have a Grissom-DHam platoon at 2B, so why not give it a try?

I align the same people differently.

1b/DH - ok with Casas/Devers

2b - Hamilton/ Campbell.  Not a platoon.  I just doubt Campbell is there opening day

SS - Story/Mayer. With Mayer in WOO until Story gets hurt

3b - Romy/Grissom.  Give both a shot.  Admittedly I might be buying a bit too much into the article about Romy’s power and needed swing adjustments.

[moonslav59]

17 minutes ago, notin said:

If align the same people differently.

1b/DH - ok with Casas/Devers

2b - Hamilton/ Campbell.  Not a platoon.  I just doubt Campbell is there opening day

SS - Story/Mayer. With Mayer in WOO until Story gets hurt

3b - Romy/Grissom.  Give both a shot.  Admittedly I might be buying a bit too much into the article about Romy’s power and needed swing adjustments.

I admit, I am not sure how well Campbell or Mayer would do at 3B. Campbell has played there a handful of games, but I cannot see us going into a season with Grissom/Romy as the 3B plan.

A lot of how anything we come up with depends heavily on the health of Story and Mayer, and making any plan the relies on both of them to be even 80-90% ready to play is asking for trouble. Our best hope on those two might be as simple as just wishing both are never hurt, at the same time, and just count on them both as one SS.

Let's assume that, and any time both are healthy one could play 2B or 3B. The rest of the slots are tough calls.

2B: Campbell, Girssom-DHam, Romy, EValdez/Meidroth

3B: (Devers) Campbell, Grissom, Romy, Meidroth

DH & 1B: Casas/Devers (Yoshida or Refsnyder-E Valdez)

There are a lot of moving parts, here, and if both SSs are healthy, an actual logjam, but keeping all these guys, except maybe DHam is probably what happens, this winter, anyway.

The OF is where something almost surely will go down. Even with the departure of our best power RHB in O'Neill, we still have a solid and deep OF. One can argue too deep, but many have some major flaws or question marks.

Duran: He has jumped up by leaps and bounds and seems to have proven himself. He is now an excellent LF'er and plus CF'er on D. His offensive numbers are something no other Sox player has ever done, in terms of SBs, HRs, 2B+3Bs. We tend to think he has overcome the poor L-R splits, but he was only .665 v LHPs, this season- a big step down from last year's .749 v L. For those who love career stats (not me) he has these splits: .783 v RHPs and .586 v LHPs.

Abreu: He has even worse splits (.842 v .515.) He plays a plus RF defense, which in Fenway is a plus-plus. He dropped off at the end of 2024, so questions abound about his ability to be an .800+ batter for a full season, and if he can ever overcome the god-awful L-R splits. I think he gets traded, this winter.

Rafaela: he may be the best defensive CF'er in Sox history, but his big question is with the bat and plate discipline. The 10:1 K/BB rate is historically horrific. His ability to play SS is a benefit, but I don't think he should play there, again, unless in an emergency.

Refsnyder: He should be a platoon DH, who can play LF vs LHPs, in Fenway. He is one of MLB's best batters vs LHPs, an area we need help, so he seems like a keeper for 2025.

Anthony: He is MLB's top prospect, but as a prospect, there will always be questions. I'd like to hand him the CF or RF job to begin 2025, but have a solid back-up plan in place.

Campbell: He might be best suited for the OF, but we seem to need IF help more.

 

[Larry Cook]

MLB just did their end of season top 100 and we got 3 of the top 10! And 4 of the top 25! 
but I spent some time reading the profile they wrote on Mayer. Basically they said he has instincts and a good first step, but is slow and some scouts think he would be better off at 3rd base!!  
I know Mayer is not ready for the major leagues yet, but at some point in 2025, if he stays healthy, Mayer will be ready. 

[notin]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I admit, I am not sure how well Campbell or Mayer would do at 3B. Campbell has played there a handful of games, but I cannot see us going into a season with Grissom/Romy as the 3B plan.

A lot of how anything we come up with depends heavily on the health of Story and Mayer, and making any plan the relies on both of them to be even 80-90% ready to play is asking for trouble. Our best hope on those two might be as simple as just wishing both are never hurt, at the same time, and just count on them both as one SS.

Let's assume that, and any time both are healthy one could play 2B or 3B. The rest of the slots are tough calls.

2B: Campbell, Girssom-DHam, Romy, EValdez/Meidroth

3B: (Devers) Campbell, Grissom, Romy, Meidroth

DH & 1B: Casas/Devers (Yoshida or Refsnyder-E Valdez)

There are a lot of moving parts, here, and if both SSs are healthy, an actual logjam, but keeping all these guys, except maybe DHam is probably what happens, this winter, anyway.

The OF is where something almost surely will go down. Even with the departure of our best power RHB in O'Neill, we still have a solid and deep OF. One can argue too deep, but many have some major flaws or question marks.

Duran: He has jumped up by leaps and bounds and seems to have proven himself. He is now an excellent LF'er and plus CF'er on D. His offensive numbers are something no other Sox player has ever done, in terms of SBs, HRs, 2B+3Bs. We tend to think he has overcome the poor L-R splits, but he was only .665 v LHPs, this season- a big step down from last year's .749 v L. For those who love career stats (not me) he has these splits: .783 v RHPs and .586 v LHPs.

Abreu: He has even worse splits (.842 v .515.) He plays a plus RF defense, which in Fenway is a plus-plus. He dropped off at the end of 2024, so questions abound about his ability to be an .800+ batter for a full season, and if he can ever overcome the god-awful L-R splits. I think he gets traded, this winter.

Rafaela: he may be the best defensive CF'er in Sox history, but his big question is with the bat and plate discipline. The 10:1 K/BB rate is historically horrific. His ability to play SS is a benefit, but I don't think he should play there, again, unless in an emergency.

Refsnyder: He should be a platoon DH, who can play LF vs LHPs, in Fenway. He is one of MLB's best batters vs LHPs, an area we need help, so he seems like a keeper for 2025.

Anthony: He is MLB's top prospect, but as a prospect, there will always be questions. I'd like to hand him the CF or RF job to begin 2025, but have a solid back-up plan in place.

Campbell: He might be best suited for the OF, but we seem to need IF help more.

 

So you think Grissom at 2b and Campbell at 3b makes sense but Campbell at 2b and Grissom at 3b is something you just can’t fathom?

[notin]

48 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

MLB just did their end of season top 100 and we got 3 of the top 10! And 4 of the top 25! 
but I spent some time reading the profile they wrote on Mayer. Basically they said he has instincts and a good first step, but is slow and some scouts think he would be better off at 3rd base!!  
I know Mayer is not ready for the major leagues yet, but at some point in 2025, if he stays healthy, Mayer will be ready. 

Red Sox have 6 overall on the MLB.com Top 100 list, with Anthony (3), Mayer (7), Campbell (10), Teel (25), Montgomery (54) and Arias (95).

The Cubs have the most listed prospects, with 8.

The least is 1, by the Yankees, Blue Jays and Astros.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

So you think Grissom at 2b and Campbell at 3b makes sense but Campbell at 2b and Grissom at 3b is something you just can’t fathom?

I expect more production on O from 3B than 2B. That is one issue, but yes, if you just flip the two, it's the same. My point was only considering that Mayer + Story = only 162 games of SS and nothing else. In reality, it could be much more than 162 games. 162 at SS and maybe 81-120 at 2B or 3B. If that happened, Grissom would be squeezed out over Campbell in my plan.

If Grissom is viewed as the better defensive 3Bman by more than the flip of Grissom vs Campbell at 2B, then yes, I'd prefer Grissom at 3B and Campbell at 2B.

I happen to like DHam at 2B vs RHPs, and think a Grissom-Dham platoon at 2B would be okay, when Story or Mayer our on the IL (only.)

I guess we could go:

vs RHP: DHam at 2B and Campbell at 3B

vs LHPs: Campbell at 2B and Grissom at 3B

But it might be better to not jerk Campbell around. He needs to learn one position, first, IMO.

[Larry Cook]

3 hours ago, notin said:

Red Sox have 6 overall on the MLB.com Top 100 list, with Anthony (3), Mayer (7), Campbell (10), Teel (25), Montgomery (54) and Arias (95).

The Cubs have the most listed prospects, with 8.

The least is 1, by the Yankees, Blue Jays and Astros.

Maybe the blue jays would like to trade some of their pitchers for some quality prospects?? 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Larry Cook said:

Maybe the blue jays would like to trade some of their pitchers for some quality prospects?? 

I think they would for the right one(s.) What I find prohibitive is that Bassitt has just 1 year, Gausman 2, and the multi-year, Berrios is expensive and getting old.

I would not give a top 4 for any of them. I might give Mayer and Yoshida and $6-8M for Gausman.

[Old Red]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I think they would for the right one(s.) What I find prohibitive is that Bassitt has just 1 year, Gausman 2, and the multi-year, Berrios is expensive and getting old.

I would not give a top 4 for any of them. I might give Mayer and Yoshida and $6-8M for Gausman.

What you would do, and what the Red Sox will most likely do is two entirely different things, and I think not.

[Larry Cook]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I think they would for the right one(s.) What I find prohibitive is that Bassitt has just 1 year, Gausman 2, and the multi-year, Berrios is expensive and getting old.

I would not give a top 4 for any of them. I might give Mayer and Yoshida and $6-8M for Gausman.

I would do that deal every day of the week! 

[Bellhorn04]

11 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I think they would for the right one(s.) What I find prohibitive is that Bassitt has just 1 year, Gausman 2, and the multi-year, Berrios is expensive and getting old.

I would not give a top 4 for any of them. I might give Mayer and Yoshida and $6-8M for Gausman.

I like Gausman, but trading Mayer for 2 years of him seems a bit extreme.

What does BTV say about this trade?

[Old Red]

6 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I like Gausman, but trading Mayer for 2 years of him seems a bit extreme.

What does BTV say about this trade?

I know posters on here throw out all kinds of make believe trades, and player movement to different positions, which is deemed fun, but I haven’t seen anything yet that I think the Red Sox would, or will do.

[notin]

14 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Maybe the blue jays would like to trade some of their pitchers for some quality prospects?? 

Nope.  Let ‘em rot in the cellar!

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I like Gausman, but trading Mayer for 2 years of him seems a bit extreme.

What does BTV say about this trade?

I don't pay for BTV, and I mnetioned the 2 years of Gausman as a reason not to do this trade. It's a close call to me, and maybe I'd insist on an extension before agreeing to it.

[Old Red]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I don't pay for BTV, and I mnetioned the 2 years of Gausman as a reason not to do this trade. It's a close call to me, and maybe I'd insist on an extension before agreeing to it.

I don’t believe the Red Sox would trade for Gausman let alone do an extension.

[Larry Cook]

The Red Sox management says that they going to be aggressive this off season in acquiring pitching. 
but Red Sox management does not want to be burned by huge pitcher contracts, like the terrible sale contract!!! 
And we have a surplus of middle infielders and left handed bats, 

then trades are the most logical avenue to pursue in order to acquire more pitching! 

[Old Red]

1 minute ago, Larry Cook said:

The Red Sox management says that they going to be aggressive this off season in acquiring pitching. 
but Red Sox management does not want to be burned by huge pitcher contracts, like the terrible sale contract!!! 
And we have a surplus of middle infielders and left handed bats, 

then trades are the most logical avenue to pursue in order to acquire more pitching! 

I’ll believe Red Sox management when they do what they say, and not what they say, and not until then. The Red Sox met with the Yam Man last year. How many of the big spenders who also met with the Yam Man do you think they were going to out spend. What Red Sox management calls aggressive might not be what the fans call aggressive. Caution, and beware when the Red Sox are there.

[Duran Is The Man]

5 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

The Red Sox management says that they going to be aggressive this off season in acquiring pitching. 
but Red Sox management does not want to be burned by huge pitcher contracts, like the terrible sale contract!!! 
And we have a surplus of middle infielders and left handed bats, 

then trades are the most logical avenue to pursue in order to acquire more pitching! 

Red Sox management has a history of making stupid decisions. i don't expect that to change this year. last offseason, they could have had Lugo or Wacha (who both had better bWARs than Gio) for less money. 

[Larry Cook]

4 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

Red Sox management has a history of making stupid decisions. i don't expect that to change this year. last offseason, they could have had Lugo or Wacha (who both had better bWARs than Gio) for less money. 

you are correct sir, the gioletta signing was completely bizarre. It did not fit any organizational philosophy (either budget reduction or development path) and in hindsight turned out to be exactly why we should avoid signing veteran retreads.
I truly thought our organizational philosophy
was built on purposefully ignoring the veteran retreads and focusing on young and inexperienced pitching with huge upside. That we could develop and integrate into our lineup,

the gioletta signing was a complete aberration  of our pitching philosophy and cost us tremendously in 2024! 

 

[moonslav59]

34 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

The Red Sox management says that they going to be aggressive this off season in acquiring pitching. 
but Red Sox management does not want to be burned by huge pitcher contracts, like the terrible sale contract!!! 
And we have a surplus of middle infielders and left handed bats, 

then trades are the most logical avenue to pursue in order to acquire more pitching! 

I'll believe it, when I see it, but we certainly have more trade chips than we have in a long while.

We also may not have to get super bold to fix what needs to be fixed, and we may end up trading for some players none of us mentioned or even thought of. I never heard of Fitts, Priester, Slaten and Sandlin, and maybe those are the types we are looking for, but maybe a little better or who are actual ML pitchers with some sort of track record of ML success. These "under-the-radar" type pitchers will still be expensive, in terms of return packages. Almost all teams know which young pitchers are very promising, and the bidding on any of them will be steep.

To me, we have to add at least 2 solid pitchers. I know my wish for 3-4 is a pipe dream, but 2 should be doable. If we settle on one, we better strike gold.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, Larry Cook said:

the gioletta signing was a complete aberration  of our pitching philosophy and cost us tremendously in 2024! 

 

"But it made sense at the time"...

...for the Red Sox -- whose entire starting rotation consisted of three young pitchers rotating their heads back and forth at each other -- to offer a guy with a borderline 5.00 ERA the past two years both a ton of money AND an opt-out to seek presumably even more from other clubs... JUST IN CASE HE WAS GOOD IN BOSTON....

... because, as the front office expects out of gullible fandom, why would anyone EXPECT that the Sox would want to pay market value to keep an actually good pitcher around on a bad pitching staff?

Ya, that makes sense, never.

[Duran Is The Man]

6 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

"But it made sense at the time"...

...for the Red Sox -- whose entire starting rotation consisted of three young pitchers rotating their heads back and forth at each other -- to offer a guy with a borderline 5.00 ERA the past two years both a ton of money AND an opt-out to seek presumably even more from other clubs... JUST IN CASE HE WAS GOOD IN BOSTON....

... because, as the front office expects out of gullible fandom, why would anyone EXPECT that the Sox would want to pay market value to keep an actually good pitcher around on a bad pitching staff?

Ya, that makes sense, never.

the most insane part of the entire deal. i've said it a million times...the Sox FO is nothing but f***ing idiots.

[Old Red]

4 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

the most insane part of the entire deal. i've said it a million times...the Sox FO is nothing but f***ing idiots.

Gio/Sale/Grissom I believe was all one deal. It all turned out bad for 2024, and it couldn’t have turned out much worse if Brez would have planned it that way.

[Duran Is The Man]

1 minute ago, Old Red said:

Gio/Sale/Grissom I believe was all one deal. It all turned out bad for 2024, and it couldn’t have turned out much worse if Brez would have planned it that way.

i agree. some say it's just bad luck, but i'm in the "you make your own luck" camp.

[moonslav59]

The whole "durable pitcher" and "affected by his divorce" was a hollow mantra.

Not many liked the Gio signing, and it was nearly twice the money we spent on Kluber and Richards.

I hope our top two deals get better results, this winter.