Article: Why Wilyer Abreu Doesn’t Fit The 2025 Red Sox Roster

[Old Red]

44 minutes ago, notin said:

Whether or not Bloom is here any more is irrelevant.  The people who gave him the analytic data suggesting the move are still around.

I don’t know if Cora is an obstacle or not.  If he had a preferable alternative, Devers might have already moved…

Analytic data? Do you think Cora makes his lineup out, or makes all the moves he does during games, because of analytic data for his defense?If he does he’d better try something else, because the D has been bad for 3 years. Cora has said he makes his lineups out based on who the opposing pitcher is, and not for defense. Raffy could have been tried at 1B instead of Franchy. He wasn’t. Raffy could have been tried at 1B this year when Casas got hurt. They didn’t. Cora has said more than once Raffy is his 3B. I guess that isn’t good enough for some on here, but that’s irrelevant.

[notin]

37 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I cannot imagine Campbell, Mayer or Meidroth being worse at 3B or Devers worse than Casas at 1B.

Did you imagine Hanley looking worse in LF than he did at SS?

[Old Red]

25 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I wouldn't say it will never happen, but I certainly know most of what any of us suggest ever happens.

I try to keep what I suggest seperate from what I think will or might happen. This is on the suggestion side.

I just see us as looking for a way to improve our defense without spending a lot of money or hurting the offense.

Casas to DH does not hurt hitting

Devers to 1B improves defense and does not hurt hitting.

Campbell or Mayer at 3B improves the defense and should be no worse than Yoshida did on offense, the last 2 years. I'm pretty confident they can do better.

What we get for Yoshida is not what trading him is about. Just get someone to take the largest chunk of his salary and call it a done deal.

The next option could be to trade Casas for a really good pitcher. Devers to 1B and the same idea at 3B. DH stays the same- maybe with more of Refsnyder v LHPs.

You crack me up always trying to distinguish on what you say is an opinion, suggestion, or prediction. You really don’t have any idea if moving Raffy to 1B will improve the D, or that Mayer, or Campbell would improve the D at 3B. Opinions, suggestions, or predictions can all be right, or wrong, and one isn’t any better, or worse than the other ones.

[notin]

10 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Analytic data? Do you think Cora makes his lineup out, or makes all the moves he does during games, because of analytic data for his defense?If he does he’d better try something else, because the D has been bad for 3 years. Cora has said he makes his lineups out based on who the opposing pitcher is, and not for defense. Raffy could have been tried at 1B instead of Franchy. He wasn’t. Raffy could have been tried at 1B this year when Casas got hurt. They didn’t. Cora has said more than once Raffy is his 3B. I guess that isn’t good enough for some on here, but that’s irrelevant.

Clearly Cora ignores defensive analytics and it shows.  But if he had a viable alternative to Devers at 3b,  extremely likely Cora moves him around, like if the Sox had done the right thing last year and signed Matt Chapman (5.4 fWAR/7.1 bWAR). 
 

Cora also said Rafaela was his CF at one point and specifically said he would NOT be a SS, but he showed just because he said something doesn’t mean he can’t/won’t change as he needs to.

[Old Red]

26 minutes ago, notin said:

Clearly Cora ignores defensive analytics and it shows.  But if he had a viable alternative to Devers at 3b,  extremely likely Cora moves him around, like if the Sox had done the right thing last year and signed Matt Chapman (5.4 fWAR/7.1 bWAR). 
 

Cora also said Rafaela was his CF at one point and specifically said he would NOT be a SS, but he showed just because he said something doesn’t mean he can’t/won’t change as he needs to.

We agree on one thing that Cora doesn’t go by much of anything when it comes to D even though he says it has to get better all the time. You keep thinking Raffy has to be moved off 3B, and I just don’t think Cora sees it that way viable candidate, or not since Casas is at 1B. To you Chapman would have been the right move, but the Red Sox brain trust didn’t agree. Just, because Raf Man got moved around doesn’t mean he’ll do it with others. Not everyone can play two important positions like the RAF Man can. He’s a special case.

[notin]

19 minutes ago, Old Red said:

We agree on one thing that Cora doesn’t go by much of anything when it comes to D even though he says it has to get better all the time. You keep thinking Raffy has to be moved off 3B, and I just don’t think Cora sees it that way viable candidate, or not since Casas is at 1B. To you Chapman would have been the right move, but the Red Sox brain trust didn’t agree. Just, because Raf Man got moved around doesn’t mean he’ll do it with others. Not everyone can play two important positions like the RAF Man can. He’s a special case.

Of course Cora will do it with others.  Arroyo in RF? Gonzalez to SS? Cordero to 1b?  Christian Vazquez to 2b? Dalbec to SS?  Dalbec to 1b?  Schwarber to 1b?
 

If, as you said, Cora makes out the lineup card, then he has clearly shown he is willing to move players around as he sees fit…

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, notin said:

Did you imagine Hanley looking worse in LF than he did at SS?

Yes. 

When we signed him, I thought he'd play 3B. Then, we signed Pablito.

Moving from 3B to 1B should not be as hard as OF>middle IF or vice versa.

Be honest, what are the chances Devers at 3B and Casas at 1B will do better on D in 2025 than this:

1B: Devers (Casas, when Devers "rests" at DH)

3B: Campbell or Mayer (Meidroth as AAA depth and Romy as utility depth)

I'd say the chances are 80-90% Devers is better on D at 1B than Casas and 90-95% anyone mentioned is better at 3B than Devers on D.

If Story stays healthy, we need a spot for Mayer and Campbell. The OF is full (Duran, Anthony, Abreu, Rafaela, Refsnyder) I'm beginning to think we should give Anthony, Mayer and Campbell every chance to win a job. I realize Campbell can play 2B or OF, and we can trade someone like Abreu to make room for him out there, but there is also Grissom looking to win the 2B job. We could end up being bottle-necked at middle IF and OF.

We could try to improve our catcher defense, since it was worst in MLB by some accounts, but with Teel on the verge of being ML ready, a one year bridge could be added.

Where else do we move to improve defense, other than corner IF?

[moonslav59]

On talk radio, down here in the Houston area, there is talk of trying to find a 1Bman, but I don't think we match up with them for a Casas trade.

I'm not sure I want to trade Casas, either, but trading Anthony or Campbell worries me more. The guy I'd like to trade the most is Mayer, but with Story's injury issues,  my worry level remains high.

I think it is time that Brez and Co. make the tough choice, and the choice needs to be made, very soon- like this winter. I realize all four of our prospects are not even Rule 5 eligible, this year, but holding them back is punting. Nobody likes a 6 year punt.

[mvp 78]

4 hours ago, notin said:

Did I or did I not say “generally”?

 

And didn’t Devers make many of those throws himself?  

Devers 2024;

9 fielding errors

3 throwing errors

[moonslav59]

47 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Devers 2024;

9 fielding errors

3 throwing errors

Career: 66 Throwing Errors (a truly horrific number for 950 games)

Yes, 75 Fielding Errors is pretty bad, too, but I still think he's a better gloveman than Casas.

Not sure these numbers prove anything., except that Devers should not play 1B

6000+ 3B innings 

Throwing Es

66 Devers (8270) 

48 Chapman (8850)

46 Bregman (8230)

37 Machado (7200)

33 Arenado (9200)

32 Suarez (9090)

28 J Ramirez (8000)

Fielding Es

75 Devers

56 Ramirez

54 Suarez

42 Arenado

36 Chapman

29 Machado

27 Bregman

We have two of the very worst defensive corner infielders in MLB. 2022-2024

OAA 1B

-11 in 1747 innings Casas (-8 DRS)

-12 in 1998 Y Gurriel (-1 DRS)

-18 in 2480 A Vaughn (-7 DRS)

-16 in 2342 J Bell (-15 DRS)

-26 in 3210 Guerrero (-4 DRS)

OAA 3B

-19 in 1661 Burger (-17 DRS)

-12 in 1589 Escobar (-15 DRS)

-17 in 3617 Devers (-24 DRS)

-11 in 2109 Urias (+11 DRS)

-10 in 2367 Muncy (+9 DRS)

Yes, let's just wait a year or two...maybe 3, when Yoshida's time is up. NOT!

[Old Red]

3 hours ago, notin said:

Of course Cora will do it with others.  Arroyo in RF? Gonzalez to SS? Cordero to 1b?  Christian Vazquez to 2b? Dalbec to SS?  Dalbec to 1b?  Schwarber to 1b?
 

If, as you said, Cora makes out the lineup card, then he has clearly shown he is willing to move players around as he sees fit…

I know he will do it with others that is what Cora does, but when I said others I was referring to Raffy, which is a whole different conversation then throwing spaghetti against a wall to see if they will stick. Moving Raffy to 1B would be a lot bigger move then trying all the others you mentioned. The rest of the moves you mentioned was to see if they could help in a pinch, and not for a FT move, or this big of magnitude. Raffy was signed as a 3B, and not as a 1B/DH. Like I’ve repeatedly said before that Cora says Raffy is is 3B, so I won’t lose any sleep thinking, or worrying about Raffy moving to 1B, and I’m sure you will let me know when he does.🤫

[Old Red]

17 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Career: 66 Throwing Errors (a truly horrific number for 950 games)

Yes, 75 Fielding Errors is pretty bad, too, but I still think he's a better gloveman than Casas.

Not sure these numbers prove anything., except that Devers should not play 1B

6000+ 3B innings 

Throwing Es

66 Devers (8270) 

48 Chapman (8850)

46 Bregman (8230)

37 Machado (7200)

33 Arenado (9200)

32 Suarez (9090)

28 J Ramirez (8000)

Fielding Es

75 Devers

56 Ramirez

54 Suarez

42 Arenado

36 Chapman

29 Machado

27 Bregman

We have two of the very worst defensive corner infielders in MLB. 2022-2024

OAA 1B

-11 in 1747 innings Casas (-8 DRS)

-12 in 1998 Y Gurriel (-1 DRS)

-18 in 2480 A Vaughn (-7 DRS)

-16 in 2342 J Bell (-15 DRS)

-26 in 3210 Guerrero (-4 DRS)

OAA 3B

-19 in 1661 Burger (-17 DRS)

-12 in 1589 Escobar (-15 DRS)

-17 in 3617 Devers (-24 DRS)

-11 in 2109 Urias (+11 DRS)

-10 in 2367 Muncy (+9 DRS)

Yes, let's just wait a year or two...maybe 3, when Yoshida's time is up. NOT!

I’ll take a stab in the dark, but IMO you saying NOT, or going on, and on, and on about moving Raffy off 3B is going to influence the Red Sox brain trust one way, or the other. Persistent, but not successful.

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Devers 2024;

9 fielding errors

3 throwing errors

Not every bad throw is an error.  You know that…

[notin]

9 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I’ll take a stab in the dark, but IMO you saying NOT, or going on, and on, and on about moving Raffy off 3B is going to influence the Red Sox brain trust one way, or the other. Persistent, but not successful.

Neither is repeatedly posting Chris Sale stats and posting over and over how much the Sox are paying him…

[Duran Is The Man]

1 minute ago, notin said:

Neither is repeatedly posting Chris Sale stats and posting over and over how much the Sox are paying him…

[notin]

29 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I know he will do it with others that is what Cora does, but when I said others I was referring to Raffy, which is a whole different conversation then throwing spaghetti against a wall to see if they will stick. Moving Raffy to 1B would be a lot bigger move then trying all the others you mentioned. The rest of the moves you mentioned was to see if they could help in a pinch, and not for a FT move, or this big of magnitude. Raffy was signed as a 3B, and not as a 1B/DH. Like I’ve repeatedly said before that Cora says Raffy is is 3B, so I won’t lose any sleep thinking, or worrying about Raffy moving to 1B, and I’m sure you will let me know when he does.🤫

Devers was signed as a 16yo.  Very doubtful the Sox had idea where he’d be playing by the time he reached MLB.

And moving to 1b isn’t really a big deal and probably inevitable in Devers’ future.  Without checking, I’d bet close to half the starting first basemen were moved there from other positions for defensive reasons, either in the minors or st the MLB level..

[Old Red]

10 minutes ago, notin said:

Devers was signed as a 16yo.  Very doubtful the Sox had idea where he’d be playing by the time he reached MLB.

And moving to 1b isn’t really a big deal and probably inevitable in Devers’ future.  Without checking, I’d bet close to half the starting first basemen were moved there from other positions for defensive reasons, either in the minors or st the MLB level..

As I’ve mentioned earlier. I saw Boomer Scott, and Youk moved to 1B from 3B, and both became excellent 1B. To say moving to 1B is no big deal is not as easy for Everyone as everyone makes it out to be. I’m not even discussing that the move isn’t warranted, or worth trying. My opinion is that the Red Sox are just not going to do it in the near future.

[Old Red]

48 minutes ago, notin said:

Neither is repeatedly posting Chris Sale stats and posting over and over how much the Sox are paying him…

Do you think the Red Sox could have used the $17M Boston paid Atlanta for Sale to pitch for them on maybe getting another starting pitcher? I think having Sale have a CY Young season for another team that the Red Sox paid for warranted posting over, and over, and thanks to you for helping keep the conversation going all season long. Good job! Also posting Sale’s stats over, and over was, because those stats were actually happening. Raffy moving to 1B was not.

[mvp 78]

10 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Career: 66 Throwing Errors (a truly horrific number for 950 games)

Yes, 75 Fielding Errors is pretty bad, too, but I still think he's a better gloveman than Casas.

Not sure these numbers prove anything., except that Devers should not play 1B

6000+ 3B innings 

Throwing Es

66 Devers (8270) 

48 Chapman (8850)

46 Bregman (8230)

37 Machado (7200)

33 Arenado (9200)

32 Suarez (9090)

28 J Ramirez (8000)

Fielding Es

75 Devers

56 Ramirez

54 Suarez

42 Arenado

36 Chapman

29 Machado

27 Bregman

We have two of the very worst defensive corner infielders in MLB. 2022-2024

OAA 1B

-11 in 1747 innings Casas (-8 DRS)

-12 in 1998 Y Gurriel (-1 DRS)

-18 in 2480 A Vaughn (-7 DRS)

-16 in 2342 J Bell (-15 DRS)

-26 in 3210 Guerrero (-4 DRS)

OAA 3B

-19 in 1661 Burger (-17 DRS)

-12 in 1589 Escobar (-15 DRS)

-17 in 3617 Devers (-24 DRS)

-11 in 2109 Urias (+11 DRS)

-10 in 2367 Muncy (+9 DRS)

Yes, let's just wait a year or two...maybe 3, when Yoshida's time is up. NOT!

If Devers is the worst "fielding" 3B, why would automatically assume he would even be an adequate 1B? 

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

If Devers is the worst "fielding" 3B, why would automatically assume he would even be an adequate 1B? 

Not a guarantee, but plenty of poor fielding 3b have moved to 1b and been adequate.  Some have been stellar.  There are historical precedents…

[notin]

10 hours ago, Old Red said:

Do you think the Red Sox could have used the $17M Boston paid Atlanta for Sale to pitch for them on maybe getting another starting pitcher? I think having Sale have a CY Young season for another team that the Red Sox paid for warranted posting over, and over, and thanks to you for helping keep the conversation going all season long. Good job! Also posting Sale’s stats over, and over was, because those stats were actually happening. Raffy moving to 1B was not.

But how much did your posting it the Sox front office?  After all, that’s what you said we were not doing by discussing Devers to 1b.

 

If I were making a prediction, I’d say the 2025 Sox will have Devers at 3b, Casas at 1b and Yoshida at DH.  Probably all true.  Definitely all boring forum baseball chat…

[Old Red]

8 minutes ago, notin said:

But how much did your posting it the Sox front office?  After all, that’s what you said we were not doing by discussing Devers to 1b.

 

If I were making a prediction, I’d say the 2025 Sox will have Devers at 3b, Casas at 1b and Yoshida at DH.  Probably all true.  Definitely all boring forum baseball chat…

I know. Make believe is more fun. Also I’m thinking the Red Sox front office was well aware of what Sale was doing every time he took the mound.

[notin]

1 minute ago, Old Red said:

I know. Make believe is more fun. Also I’m thinking the Red Sox front office was well aware of what Sale was doing every time he took the mound.

Of course they we’re aware.. Everyone was aware.  Hell, we all knew about it and none of us work for either team.  
 

But you said our posts wouldn’t influence the FO.  No s***.  We know that.  Your posts about Sale didn’t either.  And neither will the infinite number of posts concerning the Sox need for pitching.  No one on this board (hopefully) thinks anyone in the Sox FO comes to Talksox for ideas and feedback.  Heck, I bet none of them have ever even heard of this site among the 1,000 or so Red Sox forums scattered around the Internet.

 

We’re not doing service work here.  We’re just talking baseball…

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

Not a guarantee, but plenty of poor fielding 3b have moved to 1b and been adequate.  Some have been stellar.  There are historical precedents…

Plenty of poor fielding players have moved to 1b and absolutely sucked. One recent example here was Franchy.

[notin]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Plenty of poor fielding players have moved to 1b and absolutely sucked. One recent example here was Franchy.

True.  
 

But no move carries any guarantee, except signing a free agent carries a guaranteed cost.  If the Sox were to move Devers to 1b and Casas to DH, and it does not work, as long as they have both players, they have the option of undoing it.

 

Want a guarantee?  I guarantee if the Sox go with the status quo at the corner infield positions, they will continue to be weak there defensively…

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Plenty of poor fielding players have moved to 1b and absolutely sucked. One recent example here was Franchy.

Not to mention, you keep focusing on the wrong side of this move.  The issue isn’t whether or not Devers can play 1b;  the issue is he cannot play 3b.

With a minimum 700 innings since 2022, Devers ranks 54th out of 56 third baseman in OAA.  And 55th in DRS.  To paraphrase Dean Wormer, he is not AT the bottom of the barrel; he IS the bottom of the barrel.  This is where the improvements can happen.  If Devers sucks at 1b, then it’s status quo at 1b and an upgrade at 3b.  That’s a good thing. Yes? No? 

[notin]

And as bad as Devers is at 3b, Casas is only marginally better at 1b.  Under the same parameters Casas ranks 50th in DRS and 49th in OAA out of 57 qualified first basemen.  Devers might be worse, but there are only so many steps down he can go…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Little League perspective on Devers as a first baseman (on a Wilyer Abreu thread):

Beginning at the lowest level of hardball, coaches know the most important position is first base, because someone at least competent has to catch -- or stop -- all the throws from the rest of the positions. A first sacker has to secure those routine, precious outs, or be nimble enough to at least secure the baseball so runners don't continually circle the bases. 

In the majors, Devers might make an isolated error as a third baseman, but if he's the first baseman he has to try to prevent Es from four or five other guys, too. Every inning. And it's more than just catching the ball; it's all about footwork and timing, sprinting to the right spots on time to take cut-offs, making spin moves to throw out runners behind you, even leading pitchers with soft underhand tosses when they're charging to the bag.

Not saying Raffy can't make the conversion, but it's not automatic. Vlad Jr. may be one of the MVPs of the league with the bat, but when he's called Bad Vlad at 1B, it's bad for Toronto.

[Old Red]

6 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Little League perspective on Devers as a first baseman (on a Wilyer Abreu thread):

Beginning at the lowest level of hardball, coaches know the most important position is first base, because someone at least competent has to catch -- or stop -- all the throws from the rest of the positions. A first sacker has to secure those routine, precious outs, or be nimble enough to at least secure the baseball so runners don't continually circle the bases. 

In the majors, Devers might make an isolated error as a third baseman, but if he's the first baseman he has to try to prevent Es from four or five other guys, too. Every inning. And it's more than just catching the ball; it's all about footwork and timing, sprinting to the right spots on time to take cut-offs, making spin moves to throw out runners behind you, even leading pitchers with soft underhand tosses when they're charging to the bag.

Not saying Raffy can't make the conversion, but it's not automatic. Vlad Jr. may be one of the MVPs of the league with the bat, but when he's called Bad Vlad at 1B, it's bad for Toronto.

Well said. Some on here think it would just be an easy peasy move for Raffy to move to 1B. It may, and it may not, and who knows if he wants to, and if not his psyche may get rattled. Footwork is a big thing, which Casas still has trouble with. I remember a picture in the Globe that showed Casas stretching, and leaning forward for a throw that went sailing over his head. At the moment Raffy is the Red Sox 3B bad D, and all.

[notin]

30 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Little League perspective on Devers as a first baseman (on a Wilyer Abreu thread):

Beginning at the lowest level of hardball, coaches know the most important position is first base, because someone at least competent has to catch -- or stop -- all the throws from the rest of the positions. A first sacker has to secure those routine, precious outs, or be nimble enough to at least secure the baseball so runners don't continually circle the bases. 

In the majors, Devers might make an isolated error as a third baseman, but if he's the first baseman he has to try to prevent Es from four or five other guys, too. Every inning. And it's more than just catching the ball; it's all about footwork and timing, sprinting to the right spots on time to take cut-offs, making spin moves to throw out runners behind you, even leading pitchers with soft underhand tosses when they're charging to the bag.

Not saying Raffy can't make the conversion, but it's not automatic. Vlad Jr. may be one of the MVPs of the league with the bat, but when he's called Bad Vlad at 1B, it's bad for Toronto.

Common consensus never said 1b was easy.  Just that it’s the easiest position to play.  You don’t discredit that by telling me what first baseman do; you discredit it by telling me what position is easier.  Preferably with some logic.

And the point isn’t to just upgrade 1b.  Devers is the worst defensive 3b in MLB using the metrics.  The idea isn’t to use him to upgrade Casas (who is one of the worst defensive 1b in MLB); the point of moving Devers would be to upgrade 3b defense.

Why do you suppose the Jays play Vlad at 1b?  Most likely because he was worse at 3b.   And when they did move Vlad, they replaced him with one of the best defensive third basemen in MLB, and improved their infield defense.