Article: Why Wilyer Abreu Doesn’t Fit The 2025 Red Sox Roster

[Daniel Fox]

The Red Sox offense is a major problem.

This statement would have seemed ridiculous two months ago when the Red Sox ranked near the top of the league in most offensive categories, and it was their bullpen, not their lineup, costing the team wins. Yet their offensive performance of the season's last thirty or so days was so disastrous, so spectacularly inept, that it can not be shrugged off as just “one of the stretches.” A team does not face plant that hard for an entire month unless fundamental issues lie beneath the surface.

Of course, when you have a team-wide slump this bad for this long, there will be more than one thing to point your finger at. From Jarren Duran running out of gas to Rafael Devers playing through an obvious injury to Triston Casas and Trevor Story struggling to find timing as they worked their way back to the lineup, there was plenty of blame to go around. I have already written articles about the limitations of Ceddanne Rafaela and Masataka Yoshida, who contributed practically nothing in September. Today, however, I want to focus on Wilyer Abreu because his offensive performance embodies what is wrong with the way this lineup is constructed and why things need to change if they are looking to compete next year.

Abreu, in fairness, had a fine enough rookie year. Before the season, I predicted he would slash .253/.346/.442 with 16 home runs and 62 RBI. Despite missing three weeks with a freak ankle injury, he batted .253/.322/.459 with 15 home runs and 58 RBI. On the surface, he has been as good as you can ask for offensively, and that’s not even considering his elite defense in the right field.

There is no doubt that Abreu will have a very solid MLB career, but I believe it is best for all parties if that career happens somewhere other than Boston. The two main problems with the Red Sox lineup are that they strike out too much and can’t hit lefties, and Abreu embodies both of those issues. His whiff rate and strikeout rate are both in the bottom 15th percentile of all MLB hitters, and he has hit just .180/.254/.279 against left-handed pitching this season. Much like Rafaela, his problems only gott worse as the season went along, as he slashed .208/.281/.317 with one home run and 30 strikeouts after August 16.

This kind of struggle - inability to hit same-sided pitching, wearing down in September - is not uncommon with rookies, but the issue with Abreu is that these are not new issues for him. He has struggled with strikeouts and hitting lefties at every level of his career, so he was never a highly-rated prospect. Even more concerning is that his plate discipline, his calling card as a minor leaguer, has not translated to The Show, as his 8.9% walk rate was about half of his rate from his days in Portland and Worcester.

None of this says Abreu cannot be a good big-league baseball player. I would not be surprised if Abreu has a Jay-Bruce-type career: great outfield defense, 20-25 home runs, and a 120-130 OPS+. The issue for Abreu, which is completely outside his control, is that someone who can be even better is waiting in his footsteps.

Let’s call it how it is: Roman Anthony will be a better player than Wilyer Abreu. There’s a reason he is the number-one prospect in baseball, while Abreu was never ranked in the top 100. He hits for more power, is more athletic, and is a better pure hitter. The tools, however, are only part of the story. Let’s compare each player’s plate discipline numbers and ability to hit lefties.

Anthony in 2024 vs lefties: .316/.414/.490
Abreu in 2024 vs lefties: .180/.254/.279

Anthony K/BB ratio: 127 K/ 73 BB
Abreu K/BB ratio: 125 K/ 40 BB

Obviously, this comparison is slightly unfair, given that Anthony was in the minors and Abreu was in the majors. Still, the numbers Anthony has put up far exceed anything Abreu did at the minor-league level, and Anthony did this all at age 20. When Roman Anthony arrives at Spring Training in 2025, two things will be true: he will be ready for an everyday big-league role and a better player than Wilyer Abreu.

Unfortunately for Abreu, it simply becomes a number game. With Jarren Duran in left field, Ceddane Rafaela in center, Anthony in right, and preferably the DH spot going to a right-handed hitter, there aren’t enough at-bats to go around. Abreu’s crime is being a left-handed hitter with strikeout issues on a team that is already too left-handed and strikes out too much. The good news is that many teams would pay a hefty price to have a controllable young outfielder who has proven he could succeed at the big-league level. The Red Sox must take advantage of this opportunity to address their shortcoming on the pitching staff and with right-handed hitters.

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[moonslav59]

Abreu's splits vs LHPs is so awful, I just don't see how he plays over Anthony.

I will say that Rafaela being a RHB is not such a big advantage over Abreu, since Rafaela sucks vs RHPs and LHPs. While Rafaela is a great defensive CF'er, Abreu is no slouch on D in RF.

I've suggested trading Abreu many times, recently, but trading Rafaela and going with Anthony in CF, Abreu-O'Neill in RF and DH might work out better.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Abreu's splits vs LHPs is so awful, I just don't see how he plays over Anthony.

I will say that Rafaela being a RHB is not such a big advantage over Abreu, since Rafaela sucks vs RHPs and LHPs. While Rafaela is a great defensive CF'er, Abreu is no slouch on D in RF.

I've suggested trading Abreu many times, recently, but trading Rafaela and going with Anthony in CF, Abreu-O'Neill in RF and DH might work out better.

Rafaela is more valuable because of his versatility as a player who can start in the majors at both the most important position in the outfield and the most important position in the infield.

Cora and the Supreme Court lifers in the front office covet guys like that...

Ceddanne's contract, however, also makes him a less desirable trade target than maybe every rookie in the MLB who has big league questions about his bat.

 

[notin]

Abreu is a speed bump on the Road to the Roman Empire…

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

Abreu is a speed bump on the Road to the Roman Empire…

If it wasn't for the high need for a RHB, and let's not fool ourselves about Rafaela's bat vs LHPs being much better than Abreu's, what OF looks best?

LF Duran (Ref)

CF Anthony (Duran)

RF: Abreu (Anthony)

or

LF: Duran (Ref)

CF: Rafaela (Duran/Anthony)

RF: Anthony (Ref)

[Larry Cook]

Abreau cassas and yoshida, three lefty hitters that need to be former Red Sox players this off season. Seattle makes perfect sense for a trade partner. 
maybe San Fran does too 

[mvp 78]

9 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Abreau cassas and yoshida, three lefty hitters that need to be former Red Sox players this off season. Seattle makes perfect sense for a trade partner. 
maybe San Fran does too 

There are clear internal replacements for Abreu and Masa. If you move Casas, I guess the corresponding maneuver is Devers to 1B. However, we don't know if he's capable of playing there. Also, there isn't an internal 3B ready to take over. You'd have to have Meidroth on the roster or put someone else there who hasn't played the position before. 

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

There are clear internal replacements for Abreu and Masa. If you move Casas, I guess the corresponding maneuver is Devers to 1B. However, we don't know if he's capable of playing there. Also, there isn't an internal 3B ready to take over. You'd have to have Meidroth on the roster or put someone else there who hasn't played the position before. 

K Campbell has played 5 games at 3B, which isn't much, but it might be just a week or two before he gets better than Devers on 3B D.

I think Mayer could play a better 3B, too.

[Old Red]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

There are clear internal replacements for Abreu and Masa. If you move Casas, I guess the corresponding maneuver is Devers to 1B. However, we don't know if he's capable of playing there. Also, there isn't an internal 3B ready to take over. You'd have to have Meidroth on the roster or put someone else there who hasn't played the position before. 

If, if,if one of the favorite games to play on here. Most likely Casas will be the 1B. Raffy will be the 3B, and Masa will be the DH when the Red Sox season opens in 2025.

[mvp 78]

16 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

K Campbell has played 5 games at 3B, which isn't much, but it might be just a week or two before he gets better than Devers on 3B D.

I think Mayer could play a better 3B, too.

"It might be..." 

"I think... could..."

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, Old Red said:

If, if,if one of the favorite games to play on here. Most likely Casas will be the 1B. Raffy will be the 3B, and Masa will be the DH when the Red Sox season opens in 2025.

Trading Masa would be a heavy lift and clear a big roster burden for the franchise. That's a big offseason move if he can pull that off. 

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

"It might be..." 

"I think... could..."

You forgot, "I know Devers and Casas suck on D."

[Old Red]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Trading Masa would be a heavy lift and clear a big roster burden for the franchise. That's a big offseason move if he can pull that off. 

If Brez could pull that off without paying even if he gives him away I would like to see it. I would think JH hates paying for players not on the Red Sox anymore. I would guess though that Masa is not in high demand throughout MLB.

[Old Red]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

You forgot, "I know Devers and Casas suck on D."

What you haven’t figured out is that even though Cora talks about the D having to get better all the time I don’t think the Red Sox have shown the last three years they are all that concerned about it. Arroyo in RF, Franchy at 1B, kike at SS, and keeping him there as the errors mount up. Cora says he makes the lineup out depending on who the opposing pitcher is, and when Cora makes his wholesale changes during a game the D takes a backseat there too, so all the justified talk about how the D needs to be improved on here just isn’t a priority to the zRed Sox brain trust.

[mvp 78]

18 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

You forgot, "I know Devers and Casas suck on D."

Devers could be worse at 1B than Casas. Campbell's better defense may not make up for it. 

[Old Red]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

Devers could be worse at 1B than Casas. Campbell's better defense may not make up for it. 

The thinking that Devers could just slide over to 1B, and be better is wishful thinking at best. Maybe he could, but i doubt he would be a Boomer Scott, or Youck over there, and like you said he could be worse than Casas.

[notin]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

If, if,if one of the favorite games to play on here. 

Of course it is.  Do you not get how Internet forums and, well, baseball off-season discussions generally work?

 

There’s more to baseball than complaining about ownership…

[notin]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

The thinking that Devers could just slide over to 1B, and be better is wishful thinking at best. Maybe he could, but i doubt he would be a Boomer Scott, or Youck over there, and like you said he could be worse than Casas.

Sure Devers could be worse, but that’s a low bar to limo under.  And even if he is, the potential upgrade at 3b still might make it worthwhile.

But 1b is generally regarded as the easiest position to field, and probably why a huge chunk, if not the majority of MLB first basemen are hitters who couldn’t field some other position…

[mvp 78]

15 minutes ago, notin said:

Sure Devers could be worse, but that’s a low bar to limo under.  And even if he is, the potential upgrade at 3b still might make it worthwhile.

But 1b is generally regarded as the easiest position to field, and probably why a huge chunk, if not the majority of MLB first basemen are hitters who couldn’t field some other position…

Have you seen what we've thrown over there the past few years?

[Old Red]

10 minutes ago, notin said:

Sure Devers could be worse, but that’s a low bar to limo under.  And even if he is, the potential upgrade at 3b still might make it worthwhile.

But 1b is generally regarded as the easiest position to field, and probably why a huge chunk, if not the majority of MLB first basemen are hitters who couldn’t field some other position…

And like I keep saying most likely the Red Sox will continue to play the cards they have dealt themselves, which is Raffy at 3B, Casas at 1B, and Masa at DH. Making the constant switches that keeps being suggested on here is way down the list of Red Sox priorities, if on the list at all IMO.

[notin]

5 minutes ago, Old Red said:

And like I keep saying most likely the Red Sox will continue to play the cards they have dealt themselves, which is Raffy at 3B, Casas at 1B, and Masa at DH. Making the constant switches that keeps being suggested on here is way down the list of Red Sox priorities, if on the list at all IMO.

As opposed to the constant switches they keep making?  Like repeatedly moving CFs to shortstop? Sticking random warm bodies at 1b and in RF?

 

Bloom suggested Devers’ future was at 1b at some point.  This originated from outside this forum…

[Old Red]

37 minutes ago, notin said:

As opposed to the constant switches they keep making?  Like repeatedly moving CFs to shortstop? Sticking random warm bodies at 1b and in RF?

 

Bloom suggested Devers’ future was at 1b at some point.  This originated from outside this forum…

#1 Bloom isn’t here anymore, and some point could be a long time away. Raf Man kept getting moved, because Story Land was down for repairs, and because the Red Sox once again had no reliable gloveman to take over SS. Either it wasn’t a big concern, or Kike wasn’t available again. All of these are just examples of improvement to the D is no big concern. Casas remains one BIg obstacle of moving Raffy to 1B, and I think Cora is another. Raffy is the 3B.

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Devers could be worse at 1B than Casas. Campbell's better defense may not make up for it. 

Hard to be worse than the worst, but I suppose it's possible.

Devers is actually a good glove guy. His arm issues would be largely hidden at 1B.

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Have you seen what we've thrown over there the past few years?

Did I or did I not say “generally”?

 

And didn’t Devers make many of those throws himself?  

[notin]

8 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Hard to be worse than the worst, but I suppose it's possible.

Devers is actually a good glove guy. His arm issues would be largely hidden at 1B.

Put me at third base and I’ll show you how easy it is…

[notin]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

#1 Bloom isn’t here anymore, and some point could be a long time away. Raf Man kept getting moved, because Story Land was down for repairs, and because the Red Sox once again had no reliable gloveman to take over SS. Either it wasn’t a big concern, or Kike wasn’t available again. All of these are just examples of improvement to the D is no big concern. Casas remains one BIg obstacle of moving Raffy to 1B, and I think Cora is another. Raffy is the 3B.

Whether or not Bloom is here any more is irrelevant.  The people who gave him the analytic data suggesting the move are still around.

I don’t know if Cora is an obstacle or not.  If he had a preferable alternative, Devers might have already moved…

[moonslav59]

19 minutes ago, notin said:

Put me at third base and I’ll show you how easy it is…

I cannot imagine Campbell, Mayer or Meidroth being worse at 3B or Devers worse than Casas at 1B.

[Duran Is The Man]

18 minutes ago, notin said:

Whether or not Bloom is here any more is irrelevant.  The people who gave him the analytic data suggesting the move are still around.

I don’t know if Cora is an obstacle or not.  If he had a preferable alternative, Devers might have already moved…

the fact that Cora hasn't even had Devers at first in spring training tells me that he might be part of the problem.

[Duran Is The Man]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

I cannot imagine Campbell, Mayer or Meidroth being worse at 3B or Devers worse than Casas at 1B.

true. but it will never happen because, well.....who f***in' knows.

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

true. but it will never happen because, well.....who f***in' knows.

I wouldn't say it will never happen, but I certainly know most of what any of us suggest ever happens.

I try to keep what I suggest seperate from what I think will or might happen. This is on the suggestion side.

I just see us as looking for a way to improve our defense without spending a lot of money or hurting the offense.

Casas to DH does not hurt hitting

Devers to 1B improves defense and does not hurt hitting.

Campbell or Mayer at 3B improves the defense and should be no worse than Yoshida did on offense, the last 2 years. I'm pretty confident they can do better.

What we get for Yoshida is not what trading him is about. Just get someone to take the largest chunk of his salary and call it a done deal.

The next option could be to trade Casas for a really good pitcher. Devers to 1B and the same idea at 3B. DH stays the same- maybe with more of Refsnyder v LHPs.