Article: Why Wilyer Abreu Doesn’t Fit The 2025 Red Sox Roster

[mvp 78]

2 hours ago, notin said:

Not to mention, you keep focusing on the wrong side of this move.  The issue isn’t whether or not Devers can play 1b;  the issue is he cannot play 3b.

With a minimum 700 innings since 2022, Devers ranks 54th out of 56 third baseman in OAA.  And 55th in DRS.  To paraphrase Dean Wormer, he is not AT the bottom of the barrel; he IS the bottom of the barrel.  This is where the improvements can happen.  If Devers sucks at 1b, then it’s status quo at 1b and an upgrade at 3b.  That’s a good thing. Yes? No? 

I think Casas should stay at 1B. I think they need a replacement at 3B. I don't think Devers should be a DH. I think he should go to LF. 

[moonslav59]

5 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

If Devers is the worst "fielding" 3B, why would automatically assume he would even be an adequate 1B? 

He just has to beat the low bar set by Casas at 1B.

I happen to think Devers is better with the glove than the arm, which is not to say he's great with the glove and range.

Fangraphs has these career numbers:

+3.3 Range

-23.0 Error

-3.8 UZR/150, which is bad, but not as bad as -62 DRS and -29 OAA in 8269 innings.

Comparing 1B to 3B is apples to oranges, but here are the Casas numbers in a much smaller sample size:

+0.2 Range

-0.1 Error

+0.2 UZR/150, so maybe he is better at 1B.

-8 DRS in 1747 innings

-11 OAA

Since Casas has plalyed about 1/5th of the innings as Devers, let's multiply his DRS and OAA by 5;

-40 DRS and -55 OAA, which is close to the Devers numbers, but again apples to oranges.

[Old Red]

17 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I think Casas should stay at 1B. I think they need a replacement at 3B. I don't think Devers should be a DH. I think he should go to LF. 

Now there’s an idea.

[Old Red]

24 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

He just has to beat the low bar set by Casas at 1B.

I happen to think Devers is better with the glove than the arm, which is not to say he's great with the glove and range.

Fangraphs has these career numbers:

+3.3 Range

-23.0 Error

-3.8 UZR/150, which is bad, but not as bad as -62 DRS and -29 OAA in 8269 innings.

Comparing 1B to 3B is apples to oranges, but here are the Casas numbers in a much smaller sample size:

+0.2 Range

-0.1 Error

+0.2 UZR/150, so maybe he is better at 1B.

-8 DRS in 1747 innings

-11 OAA

Since Casas has plalyed about 1/5th of the innings as Devers, let's multiply his DRS and OAA by 5;

-40 DRS and -55 OAA, which is close to the Devers numbers, but again apples to oranges.

Everyone knows that Raffy is a bad 3B. Everyone knows that Casa is not a good 1B. Everyone knows that Masa is not a good LF, and overpriced as a DH. The eye test tells you all this. You can throw out all these stats that I’m sure the Red Sox brain trust knows too. Everyone gets it, and everyone knows the D has to get better for the team to get better. Everyone knows, everyone knows, and everyone knows. Like I keep saying though is that the Red Sox have dealt themselves this hand, and continue to play the same hand. Look at all the things the Red Sox have tried, and all the moves Cora makes in game, and D is not even a thought on what the outcome will be. Cora has said for three years now that the D has to get better, but until the Red Sox change their approach the status quo will continue.🙈🤭

[mvp 78]

19 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Now there’s an idea.

I'm full of them. 

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Everyone knows that Raffy is a bad 3B. Everyone knows that Casa is not a good 1B. Everyone knows that Masa is not a good LF, and overpriced as a DH. 

It's market inefficiency circa 2002! Henry still loves it. 

[moonslav59]

22 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I'm full of them. 

At least you offer suggestions, even if the odds of coming true are close to zero.

[mvp 78]

13 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

At least you offer suggestions, even if the odds of coming true are close to zero.

Wow, rude. 

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Wow, rude. 

I coulda said 1%, while my suggestions are 0.001%.

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

I think Casas should stay at 1B. I think they need a replacement at 3B. I don't think Devers should be a DH. I think he should go to LF. 

It might be progress.  As long as his 26th percentile sprint speed isn’t an obstacle…

[notin]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

Everyone knows that Raffy is a bad 3B. Everyone knows that Casa is not a good 1B. Everyone knows that Masa is not a good LF, and overpriced as a DH. The eye test tells you all this. You can throw out all these stats that I’m sure the Red Sox brain trust knows too. Everyone gets it, and everyone knows the D has to get better for the team to get better. Everyone knows, everyone knows, and everyone knows. Like I keep saying though is that the Red Sox have dealt themselves this hand, and continue to play the same hand. Look at all the things the Red Sox have tried, and all the moves Cora makes in game, and D is not even a thought on what the outcome will be. Cora has said for three years now that the D has to get better, but until the Red Sox change their approach the status quo will continue.🙈🤭

They should probably keep playing the pitching hand they dealt themselves, too…

[Old Red]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

They should probably keep playing the pitching hand they dealt themselves, too…

It’s not a question of if they should at all, which is what I keep trying to explain to you guys, but for some reason, or reasons they continue to do so. Ideas, suggestions, or predictions on here don’t translate to the Red Sox brain trust who are the ones who make the decisions, or don’t make the decisions to fix the D. Ask them why not, because I can’t give you the answer only that they haven’t made any changes to fix the D, which continues to be pretty evident.

[mvp 78]

13 minutes ago, notin said:

It might be progress.  As long as his 26th percentile sprint speed isn’t an obstacle…

Same sprint speed as Jurickson Profar, Lourdes Gurriel, Alex Verdugo.

[notin]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Same sprint speed as Jurickson Profar, Lourdes Gurriel, Alex Verdugo.

Ok.  And then where does Duran go? CF with Rafaela to 3b?

(I shouldn’t need to point out but I will that this is obviously not a serious suggestion.)

[mvp 78]

Just now, notin said:

Ok.  And then where does Duran go? CF with Rafaela to 3b?

Duran is fulltime CFer. Rafaela? I'm using him as a super UTIL guy CF/RF/2B/SS. It's not the perfect use for him, but in this situation, it's what we have to work with. 

I sign Matt Duffy as a cheap FA to start the season at 3B (can also backup 1B RHB). Story starts the year at SS. Mayer, Meidroth and Campbell have to work out at 2B/3B/SS and you see who gets called up first and who slides in where. I'd give Mayer and Campbell reps at 2B and 3B in AAA before calling them up.   

Campbell 2B and Mayer 3B may make most sense in theory with Meidroth on the bench? IDK.

[notin]

25 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Duran is fulltime CFer. Rafaela? I'm using him as a super UTIL guy CF/RF/2B/SS. It's not the perfect use for him, but in this situation, it's what we have to work with. 

I sign Matt Duffy as a cheap FA to start the season at 3B (can also backup 1B RHB). Story starts the year at SS. Mayer, Meidroth and Campbell have to work out at 2B/3B/SS and you see who gets called up first and who slides in where. I'd give Mayer and Campbell reps at 2B and 3B in AAA before calling them up.   

Campbell 2B and Mayer 3B may make most sense in theory with Meidroth on the bench? IDK.

Matt Duffy? That man can sprain his wrist signing a contract!

Just try Romy or Vaughn Grissom at 3b first.  If Grissom works out, it opens up 2b for Campbell.

 

(Atlanta actually did try Grissom at 3b in hopes of making him a super utility player.  But he was never meant to be a full time solution there because Austin Riley exists.)

[notin]

37 minutes ago, Old Red said:

It’s not a question of if they should at all, which is what I keep trying to explain to you guys, but for some reason, or reasons they continue to do so. Ideas, suggestions, or predictions on here don’t translate to the Red Sox brain trust who are the ones who make the decisions, or don’t make the decisions to fix the D. Ask them why not, because I can’t give you the answer only that they haven’t made any changes to fix the D, which continues to be pretty evident.

No one here expects our thoughts to translate to anything the Sox do.  We make our suggestions and predictions, etc. because we enjoy them and the ensuing discussions.  This forum is for our entertainment, not as a conduit to the FO.  Not sure why that bothers you.

Frankly it would bother me more if the FO came here looking at my ideas as possible solutions…

[Old Red]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

No one here expects our thoughts to translate to anything the Sox do.  We make our suggestions and predictions, etc. because we enjoy them and the ensuing discussions.  This forum is for our entertainment, not as a conduit to the FO.  Not sure why that bothers you.

Frankly it would bother me more if the FO came here looking at my ideas as possible solutions…

It doesn’t bother me to hear your suggestions, opinions, or predictions. All I’m doing is pointing out the obvious that the Red Sox are not doing any of the above, haven’t done any of the above, and most likely are not going to do any of the above. Why? You’d have to ask them. I’m not even saying any of the above is not good ideas, but what’s obvious to me is the D may be a concern to Cora, and Brez, but not so much that they will make big changes to fix it. Going on 3 years now is more than obvious.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

3 hours ago, notin said:

Common consensus never said 1b was easy.  Just that it’s the easiest position to play.  You don’t discredit that by telling me what first baseman do; you discredit it by telling me what position is easier.  Preferably with some logic.

Try this: Maybe you haven't played a lot of first base, but I know you've watched a lot of first basemen in action. A good first sacker doesn't just have good hands to make scoops and save throws in the dirt.

The consensus is that most of  Devers' bad D at third involves throwing errors. I don't have a stat, but 1B might actually involve more key throws than 3B per game. We hold our breath when Raffy has to throw for a force-out at second; that won't change if he's trying for a 3-6-3 DP from first where the throw is even tougher (throwing around the lead baserunner).

Also, on most defenses, with a runner in scoring position, the third baseman is the cut-off on a throw home from LF, while the first baseman is normally the cut-off on hits to RF and CF... so that's twice as many cuts for 1B to take. Twice as many cuts = twice as many throws, potentially.

Why was Keith Hernandez considered the best first baseman of his day? He had range, footwork and hands, like Doug Mientkiewicz, but Keith was most famous for his bunt defense. Hernandez could pounce and gun guys out a third, and basically took away a big strategy (back when bunts were popular). 

We know Raffy has a strong arm. We also know we'd cringe every time he fielded a bunt and fired to third... where a bad throw is a run, every time.

Finally, a quick glance at fielding stats shows Devers gets between 300-400 chances a season. Vlad Jr. gets between 900-1,000 at first base. E-gaads.

 

[notin]

7 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Try this: Maybe you haven't played a lot of first base, but I know you've watched a lot of first basemen in action. A good first sacker doesn't just have good hands to make scoops and save throws in the dirt.

The consensus is that most of  Devers' bad D at third involves throwing errors. I don't have a stat, but 1B might actually involve more key throws than 3B per game. We hold our breath when Raffy has to throw for a force-out at second; that won't change if he's trying for a 3-6-3 DP from first where the throw is even tougher (throwing around the lead baserunner).

Also, on most defenses, with a runner in scoring position, the third baseman is the cut-off on a throw home from LF, while the first baseman is normally the cut-off on hits to RF and CF... so that's twice as many cuts for 1B to take. Twice as many cuts = twice as many throws, potentially.

Why was Keith Hernandez considered the best first baseman of his day? He had range, footwork and hands, like Doug Mientkiewicz, but Keith was most famous for his bunt defense. Hernandez could pounce and gun guys out a third, and basically took away a big strategy (back when bunts were popular). 

We know Raffy has a strong arm. We also know we'd cringe every time he fielded a bunt and fired to third... where a bad throw is a run, every time.

Finally, a quick glance at fielding stats shows Devers gets between 300-400 chances a season. Vlad Jr. gets between 900-1,000 at first base. E-gaads.

 

Fangraphs does break down errors.  For his career, Devers has 75 fielding errors and 66 throwing errors.

My thoughts are not moving him to 1b because I think he will win a Gold Glove..  I would move him there because he fields third base like he’s wearing a Gold Glove.

The chances thing isn’t really representative.  The overwhelming bulk of Devers’ (or any 3b’s) chances are on balls batted to him.  The bulk of plays any 1b makes are on balls thrown to him.  By people who want him to catch it.

This isn’t about whether or not 1b is easy.  It is easier than 3b. My sources on this include Fangraphs (whose position adjustment for first is the lowest) and The Fielding Bible..

Look around MLB and you will see a lot of first basemen did start out at 3b and were moved to 1b because they couldn’t field 3b very well.  Not just Vlad.  A bunch of others converted in the minors.  Some adjusted well (Michael Busch).  Others not so much (Bobby Dalbec.) But all of them stepped aside so better fielders could play 3b..

[notin]

And defensive limitations are not just about errors. Balls Devers cannot get to that maybe someone else can count as hits.  They don’t effect fielding percentage or error counts, but they can lead to runs…

[Duran Is The Man]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Fangraphs does break down errors.  For his career, Devers has 75 fielding errors and 66 throwing errors.

My thoughts are not moving him to 1b because I think he will win a Gold Glove..  I would move him there because he fields third base like he’s wearing a Gold Glove.

The chances thing isn’t really representative.  The overwhelming bulk of Devers’ (or any 3b’s) chances are on balls batted to him.  The bulk of plays any 1b makes are on balls thrown to him.  By people who want him to catch it.

This isn’t about whether or not 1b is easy.  It is easier than 3b. My sources on this include Fangraphs (whose position adjustment for first is the lowest) and The Fielding Bible..

Look around MLB and you will see a lot of first basemen did start out at 3b and were moved to 1b because they couldn’t field 3b very well.  Not just Vlad.  A bunch of others converted in the minors.  Some adjusted well (Michael Busch).  Others not so much (Bobby Dalbec.) But all of them stepped aside so better fielders could play 3b..

i agree. and to me, it's insane that he's never played even a single game at 1B. WTF is wrong with Cora?

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, notin said:

No one here expects our thoughts to translate to anything the Sox do.  We make our suggestions and predictions, etc. because we enjoy them and the ensuing discussions.  This forum is for our entertainment, not as a conduit to the FO.  Not sure why that bothers you.

Frankly it would bother me more if the FO came here looking at my ideas as possible solutions…

I guess it's better to just repeatedly say the FO sucks and won't do anything to fix our problems than offer suggestions and ideas.

Nobody is making suggestions thinking Brez & JH is reading them and may take our advice.

We all have different ideas on how we can try to improve the team. I enjoy hearing other ideas, even if some just make me laugh.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, notin said:

And defensive limitations are not just about errors. Balls Devers cannot get to that maybe someone else can count as hits.  They don’t effect fielding percentage or error counts, but they can lead to runs…

fangraphs has him plus on range.

[Larry Cook]

On 10/3/2024 at 11:40 AM, mvp 78 said:

Devers could be worse at 1B than Casas. Campbell's better defense may not make up for it. 

Is it possible to be more terrible at 1B than what we got now?????

[Old Red]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I guess it's better to just repeatedly say the FO sucks and won't do anything to fix our problems than offer suggestions and ideas.

Nobody is making suggestions thinking Brez & JH is reading them and may take our advice.

We all have different ideas on how we can try to improve the team. I enjoy hearing other ideas, even if some just make me laugh.

It would be accurate to say Cora, and the front office DO NOT see the D as a big enough problem to make drastic changes to fix. After 3 years you’ve finally figured that out. What took you so long?🙈 Make all the suggestions, and ideas you want though, and maybe get a suggestion box, and the suggestions can be gathered, and sent to Brez. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

2 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

i agree. and to me, it's insane that he's never played even a single game at 1B. WTF is wrong with Cora?

Maybe nothing. Fans just aren't privy to every single reason behind manager decisions -- especially the unspoken ones hidden from the public.

Some have to do with undisclosed injuries teams are trying to keep quiet. Others have to do with personality conflicts over incidents clubs absolutely need to keep secret, for PR or even out of respect for those involved.

We do know this about Cora: he flat out refuses to play Yoshida in the field again, maybe ever. 

As for shifting Devers to first base, maybe Raffy told him he can't hit if he can't play his favorite position at third base. Or maybe Cora actually did try Raffy at first base in a private practice, and he was so bad he tripped over the bag every time. Or maybe Raffy refused the move, and threatened AC with posting all those late-night pics of him from the '18 team party if pushed.

[notin]

16 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Maybe nothing. Fans just aren't privy to every single reason behind manager decisions -- especially the unspoken ones hidden from the public.

Some have to do with undisclosed injuries teams are trying to keep quiet. Others have to do with personality conflicts over incidents clubs absolutely need to keep secret, for PR or even out of respect for those involved.

We do know this about Cora: he flat out refuses to play Yoshida in the field again, maybe ever. 

As for shifting Devers to first base, maybe Raffy told him he can't hit if he can't play his favorite position at third base. Or maybe Cora actually did try Raffy at first base in a private practice, and he was so bad he tripped over the bag every time. Or maybe Raffy refused the move, and threatened AC with posting all those late-night pics of him from the '18 team party if pushed.

It’s certainly possible it’s been tried and/or discussed by Cora and Devers.  And maybe it was a flop.  My only thoughts are “but it’s my favorite position” is no reason to leave a player in place.  But it does happen, and is why Mike Trout still plays CF in between injuries.

But legitimate speculation aside, is it a good idea to move the worst defensive 3b in MLB to another position? 

[Old Red]

18 minutes ago, notin said:

It’s certainly possible it’s been tried and/or discussed by Cora and Devers.  And maybe it was a flop.  My only thoughts are “but it’s my favorite position” is no reason to leave a player in place.  But it does happen, and is why Mike Trout still plays CF in between injuries.

But legitimate speculation aside, is it a good idea to move the worst defensive 3b in MLB to another position? 

Is it as simple as that, or would it be more complicated than that? How many other moves would have to be made to make that happen even if the Red Sox wanted to try it? All those questions should be asked, and answered, because it makes all the difference in the big scheme of things, which I’m guessing has something to do with why it hasn’t happened. Lots of moving parts.

[Duran Is The Man]

1 hour ago, notin said:

It’s certainly possible it’s been tried and/or discussed by Cora and Devers.  And maybe it was a flop.  My only thoughts are “but it’s my favorite position” is no reason to leave a player in place.  But it does happen, and is why Mike Trout still plays CF in between injuries.

But legitimate speculation aside, is it a good idea to move the worst defensive 3b in MLB to another position? 

and it's year after year after year. it's not like started out great and got better. he has been bad from the start. maybe he and Casas platoon DH/1B and let Mayer or Campbell play third. Matt Chapman would have been nice.