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This statement would have seemed ridiculous two months ago when the Red Sox ranked near the top of the league in most offensive categories, and it was their bullpen, not their lineup, costing the team wins. Yet their offensive performance of the season's last thirty or so days was so disastrous, so spectacularly inept, that it can not be shrugged off as just “one of the stretches.” A team does not face plant that hard for an entire month unless fundamental issues lie beneath the surface.
Of course, when you have a team-wide slump this bad for this long, there will be more than one thing to point your finger at. From Jarren Duran running out of gas to Rafael Devers playing through an obvious injury to Triston Casas and Trevor Story struggling to find timing as they worked their way back to the lineup, there was plenty of blame to go around. I have already written articles about the limitations of Ceddanne Rafaela and Masataka Yoshida, who contributed practically nothing in September. Today, however, I want to focus on Wilyer Abreu because his offensive performance embodies what is wrong with the way this lineup is constructed and why things need to change if they are looking to compete next year.
Abreu, in fairness, had a fine enough rookie year. Before the season, I predicted he would slash .253/.346/.442 with 16 home runs and 62 RBI. Despite missing three weeks with a freak ankle injury, he batted .253/.322/.459 with 15 home runs and 58 RBI. On the surface, he has been as good as you can ask for offensively, and that’s not even considering his elite defense in the right field.
There is no doubt that Abreu will have a very solid MLB career, but I believe it is best for all parties if that career happens somewhere other than Boston. The two main problems with the Red Sox lineup are that they strike out too much and can’t hit lefties, and Abreu embodies both of those issues. His whiff rate and strikeout rate are both in the bottom 15th percentile of all MLB hitters, and he has hit just .180/.254/.279 against left-handed pitching this season. Much like Rafaela, his problems only gott worse as the season went along, as he slashed .208/.281/.317 with one home run and 30 strikeouts after August 16.
This kind of struggle - inability to hit same-sided pitching, wearing down in September - is not uncommon with rookies, but the issue with Abreu is that these are not new issues for him. He has struggled with strikeouts and hitting lefties at every level of his career, so he was never a highly-rated prospect. Even more concerning is that his plate discipline, his calling card as a minor leaguer, has not translated to The Show, as his 8.9% walk rate was about half of his rate from his days in Portland and Worcester.
None of this says Abreu cannot be a good big-league baseball player. I would not be surprised if Abreu has a Jay-Bruce-type career: great outfield defense, 20-25 home runs, and a 120-130 OPS+. The issue for Abreu, which is completely outside his control, is that someone who can be even better is waiting in his footsteps.
Let’s call it how it is: Roman Anthony will be a better player than Wilyer Abreu. There’s a reason he is the number-one prospect in baseball, while Abreu was never ranked in the top 100. He hits for more power, is more athletic, and is a better pure hitter. The tools, however, are only part of the story. Let’s compare each player’s plate discipline numbers and ability to hit lefties.
Anthony in 2024 vs lefties: .316/.414/.490
Abreu in 2024 vs lefties: .180/.254/.279
Anthony K/BB ratio: 127 K/ 73 BB
Abreu K/BB ratio: 125 K/ 40 BB
Obviously, this comparison is slightly unfair, given that Anthony was in the minors and Abreu was in the majors. Still, the numbers Anthony has put up far exceed anything Abreu did at the minor-league level, and Anthony did this all at age 20. When Roman Anthony arrives at Spring Training in 2025, two things will be true: he will be ready for an everyday big-league role and a better player than Wilyer Abreu.
Unfortunately for Abreu, it simply becomes a number game. With Jarren Duran in left field, Ceddane Rafaela in center, Anthony in right, and preferably the DH spot going to a right-handed hitter, there aren’t enough at-bats to go around. Abreu’s crime is being a left-handed hitter with strikeout issues on a team that is already too left-handed and strikes out too much. The good news is that many teams would pay a hefty price to have a controllable young outfielder who has proven he could succeed at the big-league level. The Red Sox must take advantage of this opportunity to address their shortcoming on the pitching staff and with right-handed hitters.







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