A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

Next Year's FA Class:

https://www.mlb.com/news/2025-2026-mlb-free-agent-class-preview

[Larry Cook]

Yesterday Wilson looked terrible! The day before Chapman could not find the plate even with military grade GPS! Penrod is currently injured. 
 

it caused me to wonder. Who will be the two lefties in the bullpen this year????

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

6 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm hoping we go with Campbell at 2B, day one. He seems to be ML ready, despite so few PAs on the farm. He should be okay on D, too.

If he does not start on the big team, and Devers is still nursing his shoulder and is at DH, Bregman will play 3B. We may not like DHam-Romy-Grissom at 2B, but it's a real possibility.

Trying to look at this rationally. Last year Red Sox second basemen had a negative WAR -- so they were worth Losses Below Replacement players (12th out of 15, tied for their worst position, along with the bullpen). And the three cited here had more plate appearances combined than any other SSS (sox second sacker). 

And to improve the club this year -- and "contend for the AL East" with a "burning desire for championships" -- Boston is going to rely on those three again?

I'm not saying it's impossible, but if there's indeed a three-way spitoon with HAM-Romy-GRIZ, they're punting all the way across another bridge year...

If they're really going for it this season, 2B is either Campbell, Bregman or STORY (with you-know-who at SS).

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Trying to look at this rationally. Last year Red Sox second basemen had a negative WAR -- so they were worth Losses Below Replacement players (12th out of 15, tied for their worst position, along with the bullpen). And the three cited here had more plate appearances combined than any other SSS (sox second sacker). 

And to improve the club this year -- and "contend for the AL East" with a "burning desire for championships" -- Boston is going to rely on those three again?

I'm not saying it's impossible, but if there's indeed a three-way spitoon with HAM-Romy-GRIZ, they're punting all the way across another bridge year...

If they're really going for it this season, 2B is either Campbell, Bregman or STORY (with you-know-who at SS).

I'm not sure starting the year with 2 from that group of 3 can be called "relying" on them, when Campbell can be called up, at any time. maybe we wait for him to gain the extra year of control and are "relying" on that plan.

I would not be happy, if the year long plan was rolling the dice with the best 1-2 out of those 3, but starting the year with 2 should not be the end of the world. As I said, I hope Campbell wins the job, and all my recent inquiries were about wondering what we do, if he does not.

I will add that the main reason our 2B position was so bad in 2024 was not because of DHam and Romy, especially after June 1st. fWAR at 2B:

-1.0 E Valdez (202 PAs at 2B)

-0.6 Grissom (109)

-0.3 Westbrook (39) and Rafaela (17)

-0.2 Gasper (11)

-0.1 Reyes (16) & Short (3)

0.0 Sogard (42)

-2.6 all the above (429 PAs)

+0.2 (DHam 118, Romy 56 and Wong 8= 181 PAs) These numb ers are not great, but they were not what brought 2B down. bWAR was much more kind: these were their overall WAR scores (not broken down by just 2B):

2.6 DHam

0.9 Romy

0.3 Sogard

-0.1 Westbrook

-0.2 Grissom & Short

-0.6 Valdez

-0.7 Reyes

I'm not as high on Grissom, as some seem to be, but I do think he still has some hope. I'm not high on DHam & Romy, either, but they did combine for a 3.5 bWAR in just 533 PAs. That comes to about a 3.9 over 650 PAs. These two were not the reason our 2B numbers stunk up all of MLB.

[oldtimer]

11 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not sure starting the year with 2 from that group of 3 can be called "relying" on them, when Campbell can be called up, at any time. maybe we wait for him to gain the extra year of control and are "relying" on that plan.

I would not be happy, if the year long plan was rolling the dice with the best 1-2 out of those 3, but starting the year with 2 should not be the end of the world. As I said, I hope Campbell wins the job, and all my recent inquiries were about wondering what we do, if he does not.

I will add that the main reason our 2B position was so bad in 2024 was not because of DHam and Romy, especially after June 1st. fWAR at 2B:

-1.0 E Valdez (202 PAs at 2B)

-0.6 Grissom (109)

-0.3 Westbrook (39) and Rafaela (17)

-0.2 Gasper (11)

-0.1 Reyes (16) & Short (3)

0.0 Sogard (42)

-2.6 all the above (429 PAs)

+0.2 (DHam 118, Romy 56 and Wong 8= 181 PAs) These numb ers are not great, but they were not what brought 2B down. bWAR was much more kind: these were their overall WAR scores (not broken down by just 2B):

2.6 DHam

0.9 Romy

0.3 Sogard

-0.1 Westbrook

-0.2 Grissom & Short

-0.6 Valdez

-0.7 Reyes

I'm not as high on Grissom, as some seem to be, but I do think he still has some hope. I'm not high on DHam & Romy, either, but they did combine for a 3.5 bWAR in just 533 PAs. That comes to about a 3.9 over 650 PAs. These two were not the reason our 2B numbers stunk up all of MLB.

There is a tendency among talksox fans to be reluctant to bring up our high level prospects and to instead want to stay with proven non-winners. There were those who disparaged Duran and wanted to trade him away. Now we have 3 top prospects and the advice is to hold them out for more seasoning? The time is now. Where there is a hint of an opening I prefer to bring a player up. Campbell to second, Bregman to third, Yoshida gone makes sense to me. Find a way to get Anthony into the outfield. Package Abreu with Yoshida and get a pitcher like Cease. Mayer may have to wait but Story has been fragile in the past so we need Mayer available in the wings. Devers to DH and sharing third when necessary is a reasonable approach and may increase the availaility of both players.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

18 minutes ago, oldtimer said:

There is a tendency among talksox fans to be reluctant to bring up our high level prospects and to instead want to stay with proven non-winners. 

From where does this "tendency" originate? Here are a few profiles:

Risk aversionaries. Many forget how highly-touted Grissom was a year ago; the Braves GM called him a future All-Star. As long as injury or illness kept Gris from playing, he was an unopened wax pack. What was inside: star cards or commons? Collectors know most vintage packs, once opened, lose all value...

Business minds who favor keeping a prospect down long enough for the team to secure an an extra year of control over the player... who, chances are, won't even be with the same organization six years from now. These types of fans must be relatively young and healthy -- unlike me, who doesn't even know if I'll be around an extra six months from now (thus, my urgency to see the best possible Sox team all season).

Worry warriors, who don't want to rush a kid into the Big Leagues -- "don't ruin him for life!" But... pro baseball executives (not fans) deem players ready for The Show. Prospects earn promotions, and then have to make constant adjustments to prevent demotions. Dalbec bounced up and down between Boston and Triple A for six years -- who ruined him? Answer: Major League pitchers.

[notin]

14 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Yesterday Wilson looked terrible! The day before Chapman could not find the plate even with military grade GPS! Penrod is currently injured. 
 

it caused me to wonder. Who will be the two lefties in the bullpen this year????

Chapman and Wilson…

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, oldtimer said:

There is a tendency among talksox fans to be reluctant to bring up our high level prospects and to instead want to stay with proven non-winners. There were those who disparaged Duran and wanted to trade him away. Now we have 3 top prospects and the advice is to hold them out for more seasoning? The time is now. Where there is a hint of an opening I prefer to bring a player up. Campbell to second, Bregman to third, Yoshida gone makes sense to me. Find a way to get Anthony into the outfield. Package Abreu with Yoshida and get a pitcher like Cease. Mayer may have to wait but Story has been fragile in the past so we need Mayer available in the wings. Devers to DH and sharing third when necessary is a reasonable approach and may increase the availaility of both players.

Duran switched positions, changed his batting approach 6 times a year and was an awful OF'er for the first couple years. He had a lot to work on.

Rafaela was called up at age 22 while being as raw a player as possible.

Casas was called up at 22. Bello just turned 23, when called up.

It's been a while since we called up a 20 or 21 year old, so you have a point, but we haven't had much instant rookie success, recently, where we could have said, this guy could have been called up earlier. Have we? (Maybe I'm missing someone.)

 

[mvp 78]

15 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Yesterday Wilson looked terrible! The day before Chapman could not find the plate even with military grade GPS! Penrod is currently injured. 
 

it caused me to wonder. Who will be the two lefties in the bullpen this year????

Wilson and Chapman.

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, oldtimer said:

There is a tendency among talksox fans to be reluctant to bring up our high level prospects and to instead want to stay with proven non-winners. There were those who disparaged Duran and wanted to trade him away. Now we have 3 top prospects and the advice is to hold them out for more seasoning? The time is now. Where there is a hint of an opening I prefer to bring a player up. Campbell to second, Bregman to third, Yoshida gone makes sense to me. Find a way to get Anthony into the outfield. Package Abreu with Yoshida and get a pitcher like Cease. Mayer may have to wait but Story has been fragile in the past so we need Mayer available in the wings. Devers to DH and sharing third when necessary is a reasonable approach and may increase the availaility of both players.

If you package Yoshida with Abreu it only reduces the return. I don't see that bringing back Cease even if the Padres are trying to bring down payroll. 

[Hitch]

Just listening to an interview with Story - I'm desperate for him to have a healthy year ahead. Not just because it'll help us enormously, but I can't imagine how frustrating the last few years must be to a guy so naturally talented at his fielding position. He really deserves a break.

[Hitch]

1 hour ago, oldtimer said:

There is a tendency among talksox fans to be reluctant to bring up our high level prospects and to instead want to stay with proven non-winners. There were those who disparaged Duran and wanted to trade him away. Now we have 3 top prospects and the advice is to hold them out for more seasoning? The time is now. Where there is a hint of an opening I prefer to bring a player up. Campbell to second, Bregman to third, Yoshida gone makes sense to me. Find a way to get Anthony into the outfield. Package Abreu with Yoshida and get a pitcher like Cease. Mayer may have to wait but Story has been fragile in the past so we need Mayer available in the wings. Devers to DH and sharing third when necessary is a reasonable approach and may increase the availaility of both players.

I'd love us to trade Yoshida, but see it as unlikely almost in the extreme at this point in time.

I don't want us to lose Abreu as well however. For something special yes, not for 1 year of Cease.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

If you package Yoshida with Abreu it only reduces the return. I don't see that bringing back Cease even if the Padres are trying to bring down payroll. 

We'd have to pay a lot of Yoshida's contract to bring down the cost for SDP in this trade.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Hitch said:

I'd love us to trade Yoshida, but see it as unlikely almost in the extreme at this point in time.

I don't want us to lose Abreu as well however. For something special yes, not for 1 year of Cease.

At this point, hoping Yoshida comes back healthy and can hit near or over .800 is probably more value to us than anything we can get by trading him. I know the DH slot may be taken by Devers 140-160 games, so that forces him to LF, PH or AAA duty, but what else can we do?

[Hugh2]

It's not that people don't want winner on this team, it's that we understand you need more than one or two of them. 

It's very easy for the worse teams in the league to have some of the best players. 

4 for 1 deals to bring in talent can be great and have their place, but there's a time and a place for them and if you do it too much you pretty much corner yourself into a small window. 

 

[drewski6]

15 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not sure starting the year with 2 from that group of 3 can be called "relying" on them, when Campbell can be called up, at any time. maybe we wait for him to gain the extra year of control and are "relying" on that plan.

I would not be happy, if the year long plan was rolling the dice with the best 1-2 out of those 3, but starting the year with 2 should not be the end of the world. As I said, I hope Campbell wins the job, and all my recent inquiries were about wondering what we do, if he does not.

I will add that the main reason our 2B position was so bad in 2024 was not because of DHam and Romy, especially after June 1st. fWAR at 2B:

-1.0 E Valdez (202 PAs at 2B)

-0.6 Grissom (109)

-0.3 Westbrook (39) and Rafaela (17)

-0.2 Gasper (11)

-0.1 Reyes (16) & Short (3)

0.0 Sogard (42)

-2.6 all the above (429 PAs)

+0.2 (DHam 118, Romy 56 and Wong 8= 181 PAs) These numb ers are not great, but they were not what brought 2B down. bWAR was much more kind: these were their overall WAR scores (not broken down by just 2B):

2.6 DHam

0.9 Romy

0.3 Sogard

-0.1 Westbrook

-0.2 Grissom & Short

-0.6 Valdez

-0.7 Reyes

I'm not as high on Grissom, as some seem to be, but I do think he still has some hope. I'm not high on DHam & Romy, either, but they did combine for a 3.5 bWAR in just 533 PAs. That comes to about a 3.9 over 650 PAs. These two were not the reason our 2B numbers stunk up all of MLB.

Similarly , starting the season with Bregman at 2b isnt the end of the world either.

Not implying its ideal or how it will certainly go down.  Its quite hard to ruin the season in April (injuries aside)

[drewski6]

4 hours ago, oldtimer said:

There is a tendency among talksox fans to be reluctant to bring up our high level prospects and to instead want to stay with proven non-winners. There were those who disparaged Duran and wanted to trade him away. Now we have 3 top prospects and the advice is to hold them out for more seasoning? The time is now. Where there is a hint of an opening I prefer to bring a player up. Campbell to second, Bregman to third, Yoshida gone makes sense to me. Find a way to get Anthony into the outfield. Package Abreu with Yoshida and get a pitcher like Cease. Mayer may have to wait but Story has been fragile in the past so we need Mayer available in the wings. Devers to DH and sharing third when necessary is a reasonable approach and may increase the availaility of both players.

The italicized part cant be undone.  I dont disagree with the idea, just the urgency of it.  SOrry to sound like a broken record but wait and see.

[drewski6]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Duran switched positions, changed his batting approach 6 times a year and was an awful OF'er for the first couple years. He had a lot to work on.

Rafaela was called up at age 22 while being as raw a player as possible.

Casas was called up at 22. Bello just turned 23, when called up.

It's been a while since we called up a 20 or 21 year old, so you have a point, but we haven't had much instant rookie success, recently, where we could have said, this guy could have been called up earlier. Have we? (Maybe I'm missing someone.)

 

I agree and dont forget , they went out and made hugely impactful changes to the mlbpa because it just made too much sense to keep someone back as long as possible (so you have them cheap through their prime years).

If it made sense to rush call-ups, they wouldnt have had to add the draft pick rewards for calling up prospects before you absolutely have to.  People just want to see the youth

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Similarly , starting the season with Bregman at 2b isnt the end of the world either.

Not implying its ideal or how it will certainly go down.  Its quite hard to ruin the season in April (injuries aside)

No, it wouldn't be bad, at all. Bregman is a major upgrade over a DHam- Romy/Grissom platoon. Bregman at 2B and Devers at 3B, once healthy, would also keep Yoshida and Ref from playing LF, which is a plus, too. The D at 3B remains worst in MLB and the 2B D might be about the same as a DHam-Romy platoon, if Bregman plays there. LF D improves. Offense improves, but maybe not by as much as the other option...

Bregman at 3B, Devers at DH and Campbell or a DHam-Romy platoon at 2B, pushes Ref to LF vs LHPs and maybe Yoshida to AAA or LF vs RHPs. Worse LF D. Way better 3B D. Maybe equal 2B D. Better O.

The O comp is complicated, as it depends on who sits. With Devers at 3B and Yoshida-Ref at DH. One can assume Bregman's PAs take the place of Campbell or the DHam-Romy platoo at 2B, mostly. With Devers at DH and Ref/Yoshida playing a LF platoon and Duran in CF, we can assume Bregman's PAs would mostly replace Rafaela's. This seems like a better offense. The improved D at 3B probably outweighs the loss in D in LF.

Cora could mix-and-match some, but jerking Bregman and Devers around might not be ideal.

 

[mvp 78]

21 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Similarly , starting the season with Bregman at 2b isnt the end of the world either.

Not implying its ideal or how it will certainly go down.  Its quite hard to ruin the season in April (injuries aside)

Red Sox 2019:

First 28 games .393 winning %

Remaining games through 8/31 .574

If they had just played at .574 the whole season, they wouldn't have been out of it on 8/31 and had to pack in the season (15 GB 1st place, 5 GB WC). 

[drewski6]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Red Sox 2019:

First 28 games .393 winning %

Remaining games through 8/31 .574

If they had just played at .574 the whole season, they wouldn't have been out of it on 8/31 and had to pack in the season (15 GB 1st place, 5 GB WC). 

And you think that playing Breg at 3b vs 2b is the difference between .574 and .393?

And also I said hard, not impossible.

[mvp 78]

 

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

And you think that playing Breg at 3b vs 2b is the difference between .574 and .393?

And also I said hard, not impossible.

I was just talking about your point where you said it's hard to ruin a season in April. It's easy to ruin a season in April IMO. You can really dig yourself in a hole. 

Bregman is a very poor starter historically. He may have a bad April again. Not sure if it will contribute to a bad W/L this year.

[Hitch]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

At this point, hoping Yoshida comes back healthy and can hit near or over .800 is probably more value to us than anything we can get by trading him. I know the DH slot may be taken by Devers 140-160 games, so that forces him to LF, PH or AAA duty, but what else can we do?

It's certainly very possible that's what we go for.

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

19 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Yesterday Wilson looked terrible! The day before Chapman could not find the plate even with military grade GPS! Penrod is currently injured. 
 

it caused me to wonder. Who will be the two lefties in the bullpen this year????

garrett crochet could be one.

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

At this point, hoping Yoshida comes back healthy and can hit near or over .800 is probably more value to us than anything we can get by trading him. I know the DH slot may be taken by Devers 140-160 games, so that forces him to LF, PH or AAA duty, but what else can we do?

I'd say the odds of him hitting over .800 coming off labrum surgery are pretty small.

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

I'd say the odds of him hitting over .800 coming off labrum surgery are pretty small.

He throws left handed. Maybe he'll wind up in the pen?!?!?

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

29 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He throws left handed. Maybe he'll wind up in the pen?!?!?

LOL

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

I'd say the odds of him hitting over .800 coming off labrum surgery are pretty small.

Probably true, but I said near or over, and .775-.790 could be possible and would likely be 100-125 points higher than Rafaela FT and Abreu vs LHPs.

[Larry Cook]

Abreau’s virus appears to be a bit nasty!!! He may start the year on the DL. 
I think yoshida is behind in his recovery!!!! 60 day DL????