A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[mvp 78]

Just looked at the SoxProspects forum and let's just say that we are more bearish on the Sox outlook this year than they are. There are quite a few posters over there projecting them at 90+ wins and the lowest win projection was 84. Honestly, I don't know how anyone could see this team as a 95 win team as presently constructed and I'm counting on big seasons from Story and Masa. 

[Bellhorn04]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

Just looked at the SoxProspects forum and let's just say that we are more bearish on the Sox outlook this year than they are. There are quite a few posters over there projecting them at 90+ wins and the lowest win projection was 84. Honestly, I don't know how anyone could see this team as a 95 win team as presently constructed and I'm counting on big seasons from Story and Masa. 

Yeah, there are a lot of hardcore Pollys there and on Sons of Sam as well.

The consensus of most projections and Vegas is 84-85. 

[Hitch]

38 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

xSLG by year

'22 17th percentile

'23 17th percentile

'24 11th percentile

He doesn't barrel the ball. He doesn't have good exit velo or hard hit %. He just has good k and bb %s. Yoshida's Statcast page looks better than Paredes'. He is slower than Yoshida too. He's also not a FB hitter so wouldn't take advantage of the Monster. 

Worse than I thought, then. Not a move that makes sense, especially without great defence. 

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Yeah, there are a lot of hardcore Pollys there and on Sons of Sam as well.

The consensus of most projections and Vegas is 84-85. 

Vegas isn't about realistic win/loss, but about what people will bet for/against. I think 85 seems right to me without further additions.

I don't think I've projected them to be a 90 win team since 2019. 

[Hitch]

The frustrating thing is, we have the feel of a team that's maybe just one big move away from a 90+ team. 

[mvp 78]

30 minutes ago, Hitch said:

The frustrating thing is, we have the feel of a team that's maybe just one big move away from a 90+ team. 

It'd have to be a very big move, not just signing Bregman.

[Hitch]

38 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

It'd have to be a very big move, not just signing Bregman.

What's Bregman's projected WAR? 4, or something around there? Yeah, likely still shy on his own. Another reliever on top would be nice. 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Per 162, Devers has been over 30 HR's every year from 2019-2024. Over that stretch, he's at 34 per 162.

Yes, he has more power. That does not mean Paredes does "not have all that much power."

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, Hitch said:

What's Bregman's projected WAR? 4, or something around there? Yeah, likely still shy on his own. Another reliever on top would be nice. 

I think adding Bregman and Robertson would make us playoff favorites and AL championship contenders, but not the fave.

Adding Bregman could also allow for a trade that could add another useful piece, like a real catcher or another RHB or pen arm.

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Vegas isn't about realistic win/loss, but about what people will bet for/against. 

I know, but the the 2 things are usually close.  You generally don't see the lines move very much unless there's a good reason.   

[Hugh2]

IF you signed Bregman:

Line up:

LF Duran

3B Bregman

DH Devers

SS Story

1B Casas

2B Campbell

RF Abreu

CF Rafaela

C Wong

Rotation: Crochet/Buehler/Houck/Giolito/Bello

 

Obviously There are other players and a bullpen.  But that team has 90 win talent.  

 

 

[Hugh2]

Relievers are so volatile year to year, with the exception of the very cream of the crop guys go in/out year to year from being good to bad. 

I don't think anyone can write off the Sox bullpen, there's a lot of swing and miss there.  If Slaten, Chapman, Hendriks and Whitlock are healthy it can be dangerous.  And unlike other years the Sox have some young guys who might really be able to contribute. 

[Bellhorn04]

8 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Relievers are so volatile year to year, with the exception of the very cream of the crop guys go in/out year to year from being good to bad. 

I don't think anyone can write off the Sox bullpen, there's a lot of swing and miss there.  If Slaten, Chapman, Hendriks and Whitlock are healthy it can be dangerous.  And unlike other years the Sox have some young guys who might really be able to contribute. 

Agreed, just wouldn't hurt to add a guy like Robertson on a 1 year deal.  Hendriks and Whitlock both have the injury ? hanging over them.

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes, he has more power. That does not mean Paredes does "not have all that much power."

If you look at his xSLG and his ISO, it shows he does "not have all that much power." 

[Hitch]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I think adding Bregman and Robertson would make us playoff favorites and AL championship contenders, but not the fave.

Adding Bregman could also allow for a trade that could add another useful piece, like a real catcher or another RHB or pen arm.

I wouldn't stretch to playoff favourites, but it would certainly put us in the mix, and you'd think, in the playoffs at least. 

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

IF you signed Bregman:

Line up:

LF Duran

3B Bregman

DH Devers

SS Story

1B Casas

2B Campbell

RF Abreu

CF Rafaela

C Wong

Rotation: Crochet/Buehler/Houck/Giolito/Bello

 

Obviously There are other players and a bullpen.  But that team has 90 win talent.  

 

 

That sounds about right. I'd feel better about 90, if we added Robertson, too.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

If you look at his xSLG and his ISO, it shows he does "not have all that much power." 

Is being 70th in ISO out of 270 batters with 600+ PAs since 2023, "not all that much?" I guess that point could be made for a top 26% player. He's 88th in SLG, which is top 33%.

He's 41st in HRs at 50 and 59th in PAs, so this indicates he's not all that full of power. 

Man, we are obviously running out of things to talk about, if this gets so much exposure.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Hitch said:

I wouldn't stretch to playoff favourites, but it would certainly put us in the mix, and you'd think, in the playoffs at least. 

IMO, we have a 50-50 shot at making the playoffs, now- without Bregman.

[harmony]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

IMO, we have a 50-50 shot at making the playoffs, now- without Bregman.

FanGraphs currently agrees, giving the Red Sox a 50.5 percent chance of advancing to the 2025 postseason:

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, harmony said:

FanGraphs currently agrees, giving the Red Sox a 50.5 percent chance of advancing to the 2025 postseason:

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

I would think adding Bregman would raise that to 53-55%.

[notin]

I’m calling it now.  162 wins!!

 

… minus the games in which they finish second.  But they will NEVER finish worse than second in any game!   Book it!

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

26 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I would think adding Bregman would raise that to 53-55%.

Bregman would be worth it if he could improve the team just enough so that Breslow will acquire a reliever at the deadline who is having an actual lights-out season.

A 50-50 chance very well could be the same as a 50-50 record in the third week of July (when Sox fans just know the front office won't deliver significant reinforcements from other teams).

But if Bregman is worth 3 to 5 more wins -- and Boston is cruising at 55-45 and close to first place -- does that increase the odds that Sammy K persuades ownership to let Bedlam and Bailey's Circus upgrade their show?

 

[mvp 78]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Is being 70th in ISO out of 270 batters with 600+ PAs since 2023, "not all that much?" I guess that point could be made for a top 26% player. He's 88th in SLG, which is top 33%.

He's 41st in HRs at 50 and 59th in PAs, so this indicates he's not all that full of power. 

Man, we are obviously running out of things to talk about, if this gets so much exposure.

Strong disagree.

[moonslav59]

Not sure what this shows. Half is off the grid.

[oldtimer]

18 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

IF you signed Bregman:

Line up:

LF Duran

3B Bregman

DH Devers

SS Story

1B Casas

2B Campbell

RF Abreu

CF Rafaela

C Wong

Rotation: Crochet/Buehler/Houck/Giolito/Bello

 

Obviously There are other players and a bullpen.  But that team has 90 win talent.  

 

 

Like me, you discount Yoshida and think he should be traded. I think we can do better in the outfield as well. Trade Abeau, move Rafaela to utility along with Refsnyder, move Anthony into our outfield and trade for  a right handed power hitting outfielder. I don't expect Bregman will be in a Sox uniform so  Devers remains at 3rd and we live with poor fielding at the corners. We do need another catcher but I don't expect there will be one available. There must be a moderate cost older right handed hitter who could be picked up to fill our DH spot instead of Yoshida.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, oldtimer said:

Like me, you discount Yoshida and think he should be traded. I think we can do better in the outfield as well. Trade Abeau, move Rafaela to utility along with Refsnyder, move Anthony into our outfield and trade for  a right handed power hitting outfielder. I don't expect Bregman will be in a Sox uniform so  Devers remains at 3rd and we live with poor fielding at the corners. We do need another catcher but I don't expect there will be one available. There must be a moderate cost older right handed hitter who could be picked up to fill our DH spot instead of Yoshida.

Suzuki is being shopped, but I really like the Abreu-Rafaela platoon with Anthony and Duran taking the other slots.

We need a closer, a catcher and improved corner IF defense. A RHB, who can fill one of those last 2 slots makes more sense, to me, than a RHB OF'er. I was fine with a one and done signing like Grichuk or Laureano, but I'm not high on the idea of trading assets for a RF'er.

Also, Campbell could end up in the OF and is a RHB.

[mvp 78]

11 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Not sure what this shows. Half is off the grid.

I was showing you the xISO and xSLG for a guy with no power that you claim has power. Duh. 

[moonslav59]

So, 11 and 18 means bottom 11% and 18%?

He places 70th out of the top 270 batters by PA since 2023. (600+ PAs)

His .194 ISO is better than 74% of MLB batters (30 teams x 9 batters=270 sample size.)

Say "duh" all you want, but I was legitimately asking for an explanation, and with good cause.

What am I missing?

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

So, 11 and 18 means bottom 11% and 18%?

That's what 11th percentile means typically. Time to check out Statcast for once rather than talking about Helsley trades. 

[moonslav59]

16 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

That's what 11th percentile means typically. Time to check out Statcast for once rather than talking about Helsley trades. 

Why is his 2023-2024 ISO top 25% in MLB, but he falls to the bottom 18th percentile?

Why should I trust statcast over fangraph's rankings?

I'm not trying to bust your balls, or say you are wrong.