A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[FredLynn]

46 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I agree, but for a team on a budget $18 million dollars is $18 million dollars. 

Also, let me reiterate, I'd like to see what players teams would be asking for.  If a team wants Marcelo Mayer I'm hanging up the phone.  I'd also like to weight that vs. much salary relief can we get before having to give up anything at all really. 

This is NOT a small market team. They should be looking to ADD salary, not trying to get "salary relief".

Pete Alonso is no longer available. He just resigned with the Mets. And we still have no legitimate threat from the right side. I can hardly wait for the excuses from ownership to start....

[mvp 78]

30 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

We gave up Lugo, Kavadas & others for 2 months of  Luis Garcia.

Paulino and Coffey for 2 months of Danny Jansen. Portes for Sims.

I liked those guys more than Zanetello & Jordan.

We gave up Lugo, Kavadas and Zeferjahn because they were at risk of being taken in the Rule 5 draft.

Same for Paulino. 

[moonslav59]

21 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

We gave up Lugo, Kavadas and Zeferjahn because they were at risk of being taken in the Rule 5 draft.

Same for Paulino. 

Yes, they were in danger, because they were much better.

[Hitch]

There's zero chance the Cardinals are taking on Yoshida's contract, or even most of it. If that isn't obvious to you by now, I've got some cracking magic beans you may be interested in. 

If we could get Arenado with the Cards eating a chunk of his salary, and then somehow catch one of the GM's high on crack and willing to take on most of Yoshida's, which meant standing pat with Arenado on the team rather than Yoshida, I'd be happy. 

I'm fed up of the quite laughable defence we've put up the past couple of years, and it's just a better fit for our roster.  But the issue is Yoshi is a tough trade on a sunny day, never mind when he's still out after shoulder surgery. 

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes, they were in danger, because they were much better.

And Zanetello could be in danger of Rule 5 a few years from now. Lugo took a long time to develop, Zerferjahn too. 

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, Hitch said:

There's zero chance the Cardinals are taking on Yoshida's contract, or even most of it. If that isn't obvious to you by now, I've got some cracking magic beans you may be interested in. 

If we could get Arenado with the Cards eating a chunk of his salary, and then somehow catch one of the GM's high on crack and willing to take on most of Yoshida's, which meant standing pat with Arenado on the team rather than Yoshida, I'd be happy. 

I'm fed up of the quite laughable defence we've put up the past couple of years, and it's just a better fit for our roster.  But the issue is Yoshi is a tough trade on a sunny day, never mind when he's still out after shoulder surgery. 

If they end up saving the amount of money they want to save, why wouldn't they take on Yoshida. They could just DFA him and save the amount they want.

The really don't need a DH or weak defensive OF'er, but they could, in theory, trade him as a salary dump and save a few million more than they wanted, at the start.

[Hitch]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

If they end up saving the amount of money they want to save, why wouldn't they take on Yoshida. They could just DFA him and save the amount they want.

Because they wouldn't save the money they would want, unless you think they're desperately trying to trade Arenado to only get (a smallish) part of him off their books. 

How does DFAing Yoshida then save them money?

[Bellhorn04]

2 minutes ago, Hitch said:

Because they wouldn't save the money they would want, unless you think they're desperately trying to trade Arenado to only get (a smallish) part of him off their books. 

How does DFAing Yoshida then save them money?

Careful, moon is pulling you into his bottomless rabbit hole of hypotheses. 😁

[notin]

18 minutes ago, Hitch said:

Because they wouldn't save the money they would want, unless you think they're desperately trying to trade Arenado to only get (a smallish) part of him off their books. 

How does DFAing Yoshida then save them money?

If he clears waivers and signs elsewhere, they save roughly $750,000 per year…

[notin]

4 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

OK, so what do we do with the troika of Raffy/Casas/Masa if they do trade for Arenado?

Arenado -3b

Casas/Devers -1b/DH

Yoshida -  LF, Bench or Worcester.  He still has all his options

Given how many folks are worried about Devers’ shoulders, Casas’ core muscles, and Yoshida’s labrum, is this depth a bad thing?  Or is there a contingency of folks desperate to see Nick Sogard pressed back into action?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

To promote Spring Training, the Red Sox posted a colorful collage of faces (and Raffy's back) titled "One Week." 

On top are mugs of Duran and Casas, just above Rafaela and Story (centered)... Bello stretching and Wong catching are on the bottom. 

But the guy who takes up the most space, with horizontal bat on his shoulders. is Vaughn Grissom,

 

 

[Hitch]

18 minutes ago, notin said:

If he clears waivers and signs elsewhere, they save roughly $750,000 per year…

Yes indeed... not sure of Moon's point here. 

[mvp 78]

41 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Careful, moon is pulling you into his bottomless rabbit hole of hypotheses. 😁

We've been there for almost 9 years already! 

[Hugh2]

1 hour ago, FredLynn said:

This is NOT a small market team. They should be looking to ADD salary, not trying to get "salary relief".

Pete Alonso is no longer available. He just resigned with the Mets. And we still have no legitimate threat from the right side. I can hardly wait for the excuses from ownership to start....

Ok that's fine, but there's a difference between what they should be doing and what they ARE doing.  That was never my intention to debate, rather just stating the fact.....the team is operating under a budget. 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Hitch said:

Because they wouldn't save the money they would want, unless you think they're desperately trying to trade Arenado to only get (a smallish) part of him off their books. 

How does DFAing Yoshida then save them money?

You add enough money towards Yoshida's contract to equal the savings they need.

Word was they were going to pay half his contract to HOU. That's about $38M.

We give them Yoshida + $16M and his contract costs $38M. They pay him $38M NOT the Sox.

We pay for Arenado and $5M a year towards Yoshida.

Like I said, I'm not sure I'm for this, because we are just swapping sunken contracts and taking on more cost, but at least we get a guy who can actually play a position well.

[Hitch]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

You add enough money towards Yoshida's contract to equal the savings they need.

Word was they were going to pay half his contract to HOU. That's about $38M.

We give them Yoshida + $16M and his contract costs $38M. They pay him $38M NOT the Sox.

We pay for Arenado and $5M a year towards Yoshida.

Like I said, I'm not sure I'm for this, because we are just swapping sunken contracts and taking on more cost, but at least we get a guy who can actually play a position well.

Genuine question - don't you think something like this would have already happened if it was possible? Given how little Breslow and Cora seem to rate him?

It's not even about just the money. He'd be the same for others as he is to us - a light hitting DH only that's taking up a roster spot. Not much of a market for that. Especially for teams looking to cut payroll.

[moonslav59]

If you would not sign Arenado to a 3 year deal worth $XXX, why would you give prospects to STL for the right to pay that amount or more?

The guy is a sunken cost, and like Yoshida, he still has some value, but just not near his contract value. His ability to play plus D at 3B and maybe close to the same bat projection as Yoshida, although not as much, to me, he's worth more than Yoshida. He's also owed more.

You can see how this board has been going through metal gymnastics trying to find ways to shed Yoshida and his as much of his contract as possible. Why are we trying to add another Yoshida type, but with a glove?

Unless they pay enough to make his cost $12M, $9M, $6M, in the next 3 years, I'd pass. And, that is assuming we give nothing more than Zanetello or Jordan to get it done. (I'm not even sold on this being a good deal, but our D would improve. Maybe we find a taker for Yoshida and pay $12M x 3 and save $18M to help pay towards the $27M we'll owe Arenado. Now, it looks better.

(I know Bell, Mr. Hypothetical at it again.)

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, Hitch said:

Genuine question - don't you think something like this would have already happened if it was possible? Given how little Breslow and Cora seem to rate him?

It's not even about just the money. He'd be the same for others as he is to us - a light hitting DH only that's taking up a roster spot. Not much of a market for that. Especially for teams looking to cut payroll.

I look at Yoshida, like I look at Arenado, and I do think it's almost all about the money someone thinks he's worth.

If Yoshida was a FA, would he get $18M/3? ($6M x 3) If that's the most he'd get, then one can think we could trade him +$10M a year for nothing and get him off our 26 and 40.

Do we need a $6M DH, if we had no Yoshida? I'd say no, so maybe he's worth more to a team needing a DH than to us. Not many teams have such horrible defenders at 1B and 3B who are just so obviously DH types. We may be the #1 team in MLB for the least need of a DH. (Ref should DH, too.)

[FredLynn]

41 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Ok that's fine, but there's a difference between what they should be doing and what they ARE doing.  That was never my intention to debate, rather just stating the fact.....the team is operating under a budget. 

There’s a big difference between what they need to do to make the team relevant and what they are doing. You stated what they are doing. Much more is needed. 
As for the budget it’s middle of the pack last I checked. Years ago, before Henry turned into a cheapskate, it was much better. 
We will again be watching other teams play October baseball, and that’s getting very very old.

[oldtimer]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I look at Yoshida, like I look at Arenado, and I do think it's almost all about the money someone thinks he's worth.

If Yoshida was a FA, would he get $18M/3? ($6M x 3) If that's the most he'd get, then one can think we could trade him +$10M a year for nothing and get him off our 26 and 40.

Do we need a $6M DH, if we had no Yoshida? I'd say no, so maybe he's worth more to a team needing a DH than to us. Not many teams have such horrible defenders at 1B and 3B who are just so obviously DH types. We may be the #1 team in MLB for the least need of a DH. (Ref should DH, too.)

We really need to improve our defense while also starting a more balance lineup. Arenado at third improves both area but then required moving Devers to first or better yet into a very expensive designated hitter. If Campbell is truly reading for 2nd we would have a balanced lineup and Devers would be able to backup Arenado  as needed.

Part of the consideration should involve the outfield plan going forward.. Anthony is a #1 prospect and looks to be the future. Duran is in his prime and was an all star. Is Rafaela going to improve and is Refsnyder our utility answer. Depending on ones view of that outfield plan it would make both and the use of Devers in the primary DH role, both Yoshida and Abreau become available. Certainly there is value there. That is the direction that makes sense to me. 

I don't believe a high value catcher is available or I would also look in that direction.

 

[moonslav59]

5 hours ago, notin said:

If he clears waivers and signs elsewhere, they save roughly $750,000 per year…

Not reaally, his spot on the roster will have to be filled by someone making about $750K.

[moonslav59]

Yoshida might end up having a decent season. Maybe he'll build up some trade value, and one less year of his contract might help our ability to trade him, next winter.

We aren't getting Bregman. I hope we don't get Arenado, unless they pay it down to less than $30M/3.

If Yoshida can hit .800 by bringing up his OBP, he might give us an unexpected boost. (Apparently, MVP is expecting it.)

There is a better chance Yoshida hits .800 than we find a team to take him off our hands.

[Larry Cook]

Mullins stuff is decent! Can he improve his control????   I am not sure I would include him in any trades. 

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Mullins stuff is decent! Can he improve his control????   I am not sure I would include him in any trades. 

We have so many pitchers with the same hopes as Mullins, IMO. Sure, it would suck to trade the one that turns out good, but I'm thinking the odds of him doing well are pretty low.

I'm still sticking to my opinion that I'd give nothing for Arenado, unless we end up paying him less than $10M x 3.

Here is how I tier our pitching prospects:

1 Perales

2 Fitts, Priester (not a prospect but...) Sandlin (maybe not a SP) Tolle

3  Dobbins, Early, Cason, Guerrero (RP) Valera, Reyes

4 Penrod (RP) Monegro, Paez, Mullins, Ingrassia

5 Delzine, Neely, Clarke, Tygart, Fajardo, Carlson, G Jackson, Mata

Long shots: Dean, Gambrell, Drohan, Rivera, Kirwin, Ehrlicher

Mullins might be ranked 13th to 17th on our pitcher rankings, IMO.

(I'd keep him over Jordan, and even #18 Allan Castro OF.)

[Larry Cook]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

We have so many pitchers with the same hopes as Mullins, IMO. Sure, it would suck to trade the one that turns out good, but I'm thinking the odds of him doing well are pretty low.

I'm still sticking to my opinion that I'd give nothing for Arenado, unless we end up paying him less than $10M x 3.

Here is how I tier our pitching prospects:

1 Perales

2 Fitts, Priester (not a prospect but...) Sandlin (maybe not a SP) Tolle

3  Dobbins, Early, Cason, Guerrero (RP) Valera, Reyes

4 Penrod (RP) Monegro, Paez, Mullins, Ingrassia

5 Delzine, Neely, Clarke, Tygart, Fajardo, Carlson, G Jackson, Mata

Long shots: Dean, Gambrell, Drohan, Rivera, Kirwin, Ehrlicher

Mullins might be ranked 13th to 17th on our pitcher rankings, IMO.

(I'd keep him over Jordan, and even #18 Allan Castro OF.)

Well that is the gamble only bres-slow can decide to take!!! And maybe with the advanced analytics bres-slow has more information than us to make that decision! 
in the second half of the year, the ball came out of his hand well and I am not sure many on the list ahead of him can say that. 

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Well that is the gamble only bres-slow can decide to take!!! And maybe with the advanced analytics bres-slow has more information than us to make that decision! 
in the second half of the year, the ball came out of his hand well and I am not sure many on the list ahead of him can say that. 

He might be better than I give him credit for. I agree, if Brez sees more hope in him than I do, then no-go.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

9 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

He might be better than I give him credit for. I agree, if Brez sees more hope in him than I do, then no-go.

This entire Red Sox season is hopemore.

[mvp 78]

9 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Mullins stuff is decent! Can he improve his control????   I am not sure I would include him in any trades. 

He's Rule 5 eligible this offseason and probably destined for the pen. I wouldn't have any concerns moving on from him.

[Hugh2]

Clarke is a new name.  Insert wide eye emoji here. 

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, Hugh2 said:

Clarke is a new name.  Insert wide eye emoji here. 

5th rounder last year. Only one or two of them even went to affiliated teams last season so most of them haven't been scouted outside of the org. Will know more about the 2024 draftees after this Spring. 

This is what SP says: 

Fastball: 93-97 mph. Tops out at 99 mph. Command and control are a work in progress.