A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[mvp 78]

48 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Beleaguered be ready for B League basement.

This Sox team may be more suited to be a beer leaguer. 

[notin]

5 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

You're still talking about paying $21 million a year for a bench bat platoon guy.  And yes, even if Rafaela is on the bench if Anthony is ready then you also have Abreu on the bench.  I'd rather sign Bregman and DFA Yoshida to get a RHB in the lineup. 

Giving Bregman a landed cost of roughly $43 mill or more.  And where did anyone say O’Neill was a bench/platoon guy?  Considering you were the one who said the logic for extending a QO to O’Neill was “hard to argue with,” I’d say you’re doing an ok job at it…

[Hitch]

21 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Who is we? Abreu is cheap. Moving him was part of a deal to bring back a frontline starter. They made a deal that didn't include Abreu. No reason to move him now. Right now, he's locked in as the everyday RFer. 

I may be one of the few people not overly concerned about the lefthandedness of the lineup. 

Me and the butcher's daughter, obviously. We have Abreu, Duran, Ref, Rafaela, Yoshi and Anthony coming. We are not getting rid of Yoshida it seems, and we have other holes. He's cheap, and a GG defender, but also practically a platoon player, which can make up for other holes we have, such as 2nd base and the pen. We obviously shouldn't give him away, but he's hardly indispensable to the club.

It may not concern you, but it's concerning the management, judging by the amount of times they have brought it up. 

[Hitch]

21 hours ago, notin said:

There’s been a lot of speculation about Abreu being moved, but has Breslow actually tried moving him?  I find it hard to believe teams like Pittsburgh and KC have no interest in a 3 WAR Gold Glove right fielder with 5 years of control…

Well we can only guess at that (and everything) and go by what the journalists closet to the team say. And from all that it seems we did try to move him. Maybe Pittsburgh and KC would like him but weren't offering what we wanted or didn't match up with us? There's no point just listing teams and saying well he would have gone there if he was available. It's obviously a lot more complex than that. 

There's also the possibility, that like Casas, he's worth more in our eyes than other teams. 

[Hitch]

18 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

This whole conversation was about O'Neill not Yoshida, so I'm going to pivot back because ultimately I don't really care I think we are stuck with Yoshida anyways. 

The front office obviously has a budget, I'm not spending $21 million a year on O'Neill if that meant not signing the pitchers we did this offseason.  I think we are fine with Duran/Rafaela and an Abreu/Refsynder platoon out there until Anthony is ready (who hits LHP and RHP just as well BTW).  

You keep mentioning the finite budget as if we are it now, as this is the level they want to set it at and no more. Even with O'Neil (who I didn't even want back, but would sure as s*** take over nobody), would have us way below the cap. So what if's $21m? It would have been a one year gamble, over not spending $21m and having nothing. 

[Hitch]

17 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

That’s fine, im just not spending $21 million dollars on O’Neill.  Now if we had New Yorks and LAs budget you can get me to budge on that.  
 

but if my options are Buehler and bank on Campbell/Anthony vs. O’Neill and bank on Richard Fitts I’ll take the former.

Again with the either/or. 

Why are you so convinced we are it now? When more or less every report has us in on Bregman but only at 4 years? Stop inventing parameters in your head that don't exist to make your point seem more secure. 

[Hitch]

13 hours ago, notin said:

Giving Bregman a landed cost of roughly $43 mill or more.  And where did anyone say O’Neill was a bench/platoon guy?  Considering you were the one who said the logic for extending a QO to O’Neill was “hard to argue with,” I’d say you’re doing an ok job at it…

It was me that mentioned it was hard to argue with the logic (of Sean McAdams). 

As I mentioned a few posts up, I didn't want O'Neil, still don't really. But I would much prefer we had him over the absolute nothing we have in RH'ed batting at the moment. 

[Hugh2]

15 hours ago, notin said:

Giving Bregman a landed cost of roughly $43 mill or more.  And where did anyone say O’Neill was a bench/platoon guy?  Considering you were the one who said the logic for extending a QO to O’Neill was “hard to argue with,” I’d say you’re doing an ok job at it…

I apologize but I have no ideal what you're trying to say here. 

[Hugh2]

2 hours ago, Hitch said:

Again with the either/or. 

Why are you so convinced we are it now? When more or less every report has us in on Bregman but only at 4 years? Stop inventing parameters in your head that don't exist to make your point seem more secure. 

 I'm not 100% convinced of anything, you act like it's a forgone conclusion we get Bregman, I certainly haven't ruled out the chance of it happening but I certainly seem it unlikely. 

Still, I say the pursuit of Bregman has little merit on the value of paying O'Neill 1 year $21 million.  Rafaela and Duran are two of your outfielders and Refsynder/Abreu is a fine platoon with Roman Anthony knocking on the door.   Also, if Bregman is going to happen there's a chance Campbell is your leftfielder, there are many scouts who think the outfield is his future home.

I'm not inventing parameters in my head, I don't think anyone would argue the Sox are operating on a budget. We also have no ideal what other moves the Sox are making.  Do they plan on spending another 5-10 on the bullpen? is another trade coming? are their a round of extensions coming in spring training?

Looking at the budget as it is right now and saying we had room for O'Neil also assumes a set of parameters. 

[Hugh2]

deleted to reduce redundancy.

[notin]

2 hours ago, Hitch said:

It was me that mentioned it was hard to argue with the logic (of Sean McAdams). 

As I mentioned a few posts up, I didn't want O'Neil, still don't really. But I would much prefer we had him over the absolute nothing we have in RH'ed batting at the moment. 

Oh.  I’m confusing High and Hitch again.  My bad…

[mvp 78]

15 hours ago, notin said:

Giving Bregman a landed cost of roughly $43 mill or more.  And where did anyone say O’Neill was a bench/platoon guy?  Considering you were the one who said the logic for extending a QO to O’Neill was “hard to argue with,” I’d say you’re doing an ok job at it…

693 OPS vs RHP and a bad glove = overpaid weak side platoon guy

[mvp 78]

2 hours ago, Hitch said:

Me and the butcher's daughter, obviously. We have Abreu, Duran, Ref, Rafaela, Yoshi and Anthony coming. We are not getting rid of Yoshida it seems, and we have other holes. He's cheap, and a GG defender, but also practically a platoon player, which can make up for other holes we have, such as 2nd base and the pen. We obviously shouldn't give him away, but he's hardly indispensable to the club.

It may not concern you, but it's concerning the management, judging by the amount of times they have brought it up. 

He's a strong side platoon guy with a great glove on a cheap contract. There's no reason to dump him unless you are getting something really great back (i.e. as part of a TOTR starter trade). 

People are pining for a RHB to platoon against LHP, but Wilyer would get 2/3's of the starts and give you an 825 OPS with GG defense. 

[mvp 78]

24 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

 I'm not 100% convinced of anything, you act like it's a forgone conclusion we get Bregman, I certainly haven't ruled out the chance of it happening but I certainly seem it unlikely. 

The Section 10 guys gave it a 1% chance of happening at this point, I believe. Now some of us can breathe a sigh of relief. 

[Bellhorn04]

22 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He's a strong side platoon guy with a great glove on a cheap contract. There's no reason to dump him unless you are getting something really great back (i.e. as part of a TOTR starter trade). 

People are pining for a RHB to platoon against LHP, but Wilyer would get 2/3's of the starts and give you an 825 OPS with GG defense. 

Question is where does Abreu play when Anthony comes up.

[mvp 78]

16 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Question is where does Abreu play when Anthony comes up.

LF. Rafaela becomes a backup. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

LF. Rafaela becomes a backup. 

Why move a fielder off a position where he was the league's Gold Glove Award winner? Presumably, that would include mastery or at least familiarity of the AL's toughest right field at Fenway Park.

Break the new guy in at the easiest left field, where he can play Jai-Alai off the Green Monster, and mostly practice swinging an air bat at imaginary pitches.

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Why move a fielder off a position where he was the league's Gold Glove Award winner? Presumably, that would include mastery or at least familiarity of the AL's toughest right field at Fenway Park.

Break the new guy in at the easiest left field, where he can play Jai-Alai off the Green Monster, and mostly practice swinging an air bat at imaginary pitches.

That's up to Cora. Anthony has the speed to play CF and the arm to play a corner, so he'd be a good fit in RF at Fenway IMO. 

[Hugh2]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

LF. Rafaela becomes a backup. 

Rafaela can still get 400+at bats in CF slide Duran over LF vs. LHP and spell the infield up the middle

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, Hugh2 said:

Rafaela can still get 400+at bats in CF slide Duran over LF vs. LHP and spell the infield up the middle

Metrics have Duran as being better in CF than Rafaela last season. Unless he makes a big stride with the bat, Rafaela is a backup to me. 

[Hugh2]

42 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Metrics have Duran as being better in CF than Rafaela last season. Unless he makes a big stride with the bat, Rafaela is a backup to me. 

Sox seemed to have their convictions in CF, for whatever that's worth.  I'm certainly not convinced that Rafaela can be better and a gold glove CF if he plays there full time. 

I'm also more than fine with Rafaela playing a corner and keeping Duran in CF as well. 

[moonslav59]

We can improve our numbers vs LHPs by never starting Abreu or DHam vs lefties, and I guess trading Abreu would make sure that never happens, but we should keep him, at least until Anthony is added to the 40 & 26.

There are several ways to fit a FT Anthony into the OF.

1. LF Duran, CF Rafaela v LHP and Anthony v RHPs, RF Anthony v LHPs and Abreu v RHPs.

2. LF Anthony, CF Duran, RF Abreu-Rafaela platoon.

Adding Anthony forces Refsnyder to platoon DH, not LF/RF, unless someone wants to sit Duran v LHPs (not me.)

[moonslav59]

Word is the Mets were talking to Jansen before signing Stanek to $4.5M/1.

I wonder, if Jansen could end up "falling" to the Sox on a 1 year deal. As much as he has declined, I think I'd still prefer him over Hendriks and Chapman.

[mvp 78]

3 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

Sox seemed to have their convictions in CF, for whatever that's worth.  I'm certainly not convinced that Rafaela can be better and a gold glove CF if he plays there full time. 

I'm also more than fine with Rafaela playing a corner and keeping Duran in CF as well. 

His arm is much better than Duran's, which gives him the flexibility to play RF in Fenway unlike Duran.

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Word is the Mets were talking to Jansen before signing Stanek to $4.5M/1.

I wonder, if Jansen could end up "falling" to the Sox on a 1 year deal. As much as he has declined, I think I'd still prefer him over Hendriks and Chapman.

I don't think they want him back.

[Hitch]

5 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

 I'm not 100% convinced of anything, you act like it's a forgone conclusion we get Bregman, I certainly haven't ruled out the chance of it happening but I certainly seem it unlikely. 

Still, I say the pursuit of Bregman has little merit on the value of paying O'Neill 1 year $21 million.  Rafaela and Duran are two of your outfielders and Refsynder/Abreu is a fine platoon with Roman Anthony knocking on the door.   Also, if Bregman is going to happen there's a chance Campbell is your leftfielder, there are many scouts who think the outfield is his future home.

I'm not inventing parameters in my head, I don't think anyone would argue the Sox are operating on a budget. We also have no ideal what other moves the Sox are making.  Do they plan on spending another 5-10 on the bullpen? is another trade coming? are their a round of extensions coming in spring training?

Looking at the budget as it is right now and saying we had room for O'Neil also assumes a set of parameters. 

I don't know what you've been reading, but it certainly is not me acting like it's a forgone conclusion we get Bregman. I don't think we get him, even a little bit. I do think we have made an offer, which rubbishes your continued point that if we did keep O'Neil we wouldn't have got Buehler. 

We're definitely on a budget, no doubt. But it's also pretty clear it's not the exact price point we're at now. 

[Hitch]

4 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Metrics have Duran as being better in CF than Rafaela last season. Unless he makes a big stride with the bat, Rafaela is a backup to me. 

I think Rafaela will be an everydayer. Whether he is good enough to improve his batting we'll have to see, but I think he's out there every day.

[mvp 78]

Masataka Revenge Tour '25

 

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, Hitch said:

I think Rafaela will be an everydayer. Whether he is good enough to improve his batting we'll have to see, but I think he's out there every day.

We'll see. Hard to really see how Cora wants these pieces to fit together. 

[moonslav59]

MLBTR's top FAs still not signed:

3. Bregman- looks like TOR or DET (outside chance HOU or BOS)

7. Alonso (1Bmen have seen their stock tumble)

8. Flaherty (Injury concerns)

25. Heaney (not sure why he was ranked 25th.)

28. Pivetta (no rumors that I know of.)

33. Scherzer (not sure he's still got enough in the tank)

41. Kyle Gibson (nope)

47. David Robertson (turns 40 in April)

49. H Bader and 50. Turnbull

Others" Jansen, Grichuk, Lance Lynn, J Junis, JD and Turner