A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

You're saying O'Neill was/is a bench bat?

I 'm not sure.

[Bellhorn04]

11 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I'm saying he has a .683 OPS vs. RHP the last 3 years and his defense has regressed to below average.  

Yes, that's not a guy I want starting on a team with playoff ambitions.  Or, at the very least it's not someone I want to spend $21 million dollars on. 

Understood, but the facts remain that O'Neill was our third best hitter last year, had a 2.5 WAR and has not been replaced in any way, shape or form.

It's the latter part that's the real issue.

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Understood, but the facts remain that O'Neill was our third best hitter last year, had a 2.5 WAR and hasn't been replaced.

He has been replaced- just internally.

Most likely Rafaela's 285 PAs in the IF will move to the OF (CF.)

They may let Abreu and or Ref bat more against off-handed pitchers to make up part of the other 200 "replaceable" PAs. Otherwise, they will come from Romy, Anthony or Campbell.

Then, there is the Grichuk type option.

[Old Red]

13 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I'm saying he has a .683 OPS vs. RHP the last 3 years and his defense has regressed to below average.  

Yes, that's not a guy I want starting on a team with playoff ambitions.  Or, at the very least it's not someone I want to spend $21 million dollars on. 

Well he’s Baltimore’s problem now, or Solution.

[Hugh2]

10 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Understood, but the facts remain that O'Neill was our third best hitter last year, had a 2.5 WAR and has not been replaced in any way, shape or form.

It's the latter part that's the real issue.

That’s fine, im just not spending $21 million dollars on O’Neill.  Now if we had New Yorks and LAs budget you can get me to budge on that.  
 

but if my options are Buehler and bank on Campbell/Anthony vs. O’Neill and bank on Richard Fitts I’ll take the former.

[Old Red]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

He has been replaced- just internally.

Most likely Rafaela's 285 PAs in the IF will move to the OF (CF.)

They may let Abreu and or Ref bat more against off-handed pitchers to make up part of the other 200 "replaceable" PAs. Otherwise, they will come from Romy, Anthony or Campbell.

Then, there is the Grichuk type option.

It doesn’t matter where RAF Man plays. Just, because he plays more OF doesn’t replace O’Neil’s bat, and neither does Abreu, or Ref Man playing more against off-handed pitchers. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

26 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

None finished 6th in BA in the AL, even if you lower the qualifying ABs.

My pick is Story with Yoshida close behind.

"Break out" implies a jump. For Yoshida to break out, he needs to go from .285 to .325.

For Story to "break out" from .235 to .275.

I have little faith in Grissom.

2023 AL BA: Diaz, Seager, Bichette, Ohtani, Lowe, Yoshida...

... but we also know "break out" batters do more than just hit for high average.

Story's three-year OPS in Boston is .693. Yoshida's two-year OPS is .775. 

They both had shoulder issues last year, when Yoshida had a higher Slugging % than Story. 

If both can somehow stay healthy, it will be interesting to see who is the more productive hitter. The Red Sox are absolutely stuck with each, so it's best we start rooting for (instead of ragging on) the regulars.

[Bellhorn04]

4 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

That’s fine, im just not spending $21 million dollars on O’Neill.  Now if we had New Yorks and LAs budget you can get me to budge on that.  
 

but if my options are Buehler and bank on Campbell/Anthony vs. O’Neill and bank on Richard Fitts I’ll take the former.

Yuck.

Their cheapskatery is really altering our thought processes.

 

[Hugh2]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Yuck.

Their cheapskatery is really altering our thought processes.

 

And if we weren’t cheap, we’d be looking to do a whole lot better than O’Neill anyways.  Hence my argument defending not giving him a QO.

we’ve done really well in that department.  Renfroe/Duvall/O’Neill.  We don’t need to spend $21 million dollars on RHB who can play corner outfield if the opportunity cost is not beefing up the rotation.  

[Bellhorn04]

The thing about O'Neill is he absolutely murdered LH pitching last year with a 1.180 OPS.

We're going to be even worse against LH pitching this year than we were last year.  

Keep in mind our LH hitters OPS'd a catastrophic .629 against LH pitchers last year.

 

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, Hugh2 said:

And if we weren’t cheap, we’d be looking to do a whole lot better than O’Neill anyways.  Hence my argument defending not giving him a QO.

we’ve done really well in that department.  Renfroe/Duvall/O’Neill. 

A lot of that is surely blind luck, considering we haven't done so well in so many other areas.

[mvp 78]

34 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Yuck.

Their cheapskatery is really altering our thought processes.

 

Even going back to before last season, it was clear they were waiting on the big 3 and had all of their eggs in that basket. Again, it's a lot of pressure to put on young players and it's a lot of patience you are forcing upon a beleaguered fanbase.

[moonslav59]

44 minutes ago, Old Red said:

It doesn’t matter where RAF Man plays. Just, because he plays more OF doesn’t replace O’Neil’s bat, and neither does Abreu, or Ref Man playing more against off-handed pitchers. 

He will replace many of his PAs- not his production. Agreed.

The word "replacing" does not mean in kind.

[moonslav59]

46 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

2023 AL BA: Diaz, Seager, Bichette, Ohtani, Lowe, Yoshida...

... but we also know "break out" batters do more than just hit for high average.

Story's three-year OPS in Boston is .693. Yoshida's two-year OPS is .775. 

They both had shoulder issues last year, when Yoshida had a higher Slugging % than Story. 

If both can somehow stay healthy, it will be interesting to see who is the more productive hitter. The Red Sox are absolutely stuck with each, so it's best we start rooting for (instead of ragging on) the regulars.

Yoshida should hit better, but Story can improve by more, IMO. ("break out")

[Old Red]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Yoshida should hit better, but Story can improve by more, IMO. ("break out")

If Story plays more he should produce more, but I still think he left his Best bats in Colorado three years ago.

[Hugh2]

21 minutes ago, Old Red said:

If Story plays more he should produce more, but I still think he left his Best bats in Colorado three years ago.

If he could hit .800 OPS with plus defense that would be amazing, and I think he can if he can stay healthy.......IF he can stay healthy.  

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The thing about O'Neill is he absolutely murdered LH pitching last year with a 1.180 OPS.

We're going to be even worse against LH pitching this year than we were last year.  

Keep in mind our LH hitters OPS'd a catastrophic .629 against LH pitchers last year.

 

Our hitting vs LHPs was a big issue and looks to be even bigger in 2025, agreed. I don't want to minimize the concern in any way, but even bringing back the sporadic O'Neill would be no guarantee we do as good or better in 2025. He has not always "killed" lefties and has not always even been healthy enough to play.

Here are some other good batters v LHPs since 2022, not better than O'Neill, but pretty good:

.974 O'Neill

.941 Grichuk

.910 Refsnyder

.901 Teoscar & .895 T d'Arnaud (not available anymore)

.875 Ryan Jeffers & .866 Garver (trade? Not good defensive catchers)

.817 Sean Murphy (trade?)

.816 Vladdy (not a big step up from Casas at .772.)

Right now, we need boosts from Story, Casas, Devers (.746) and others to improve their splits, or we will get killed by lefties.

 

 

[moonslav59]

15 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

If he could hit .800 OPS with plus defense that would be amazing, and I think he can if he can stay healthy.......IF he can stay healthy.  

Stay healthy, hit .800 v LHPs and .700 v RHPs, and I'll be thrilled!

[Hugh2]

13 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Stay healthy, hit .800 v LHPs and .700 v RHPs, and I'll be thrilled!

He had an .863 OPS in Colorado why set the bar so low? he has a career .785 OPS vs. RHP, If he's healthy....IF HE'S HEALTHY, I'd expect more. 

[Old Red]

11 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

He had an .863 OPS in Colorado why set the bar so low? he has a career .785 OPS vs. RHP, If he's healthy....IF HE'S HEALTHY, I'd expect more. 

When he was last in Colorado he was 28, and now he’s 32, and has had an assortment of injuries, so I’m not so sure, or counting on it.

[moonslav59]

18 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

He had an .863 OPS in Colorado why set the bar so low? he has a career .785 OPS vs. RHP, If he's healthy....IF HE'S HEALTHY, I'd expect more. 

Personally, I'd be thrilled with .780 v L and .680 v R with GG defense in 150+ games.

Can or should he do better? Okay, sure, yes, but my bar is lower than yours, I guess.

I expect age regression, just as I expect age progression for many of our returning younger players.

I do think Fenway is close to COL as being a hitter's park, but I do not expect numbers from 2019- that last full season Trevor hit over .801. That was 5 years ago.

[jdc69]

Isn't a RHB more important for the Red Sox than most any other team because of the Green Monster?

[Hugh2]

25 minutes ago, Old Red said:

When he was last in Colorado he was 28, and now he’s 32, and has had an assortment of injuries, so I’m not so sure, or counting on it.

True, but if he’s healthy I’d be optimistic his line would be much better than it has been in Boston.

one can be forgiven for not getting their hopes up with Story.  It would certainly be a good story if he has a great season

[Old Red]

14 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Personally, I'd be thrilled with .780 v L and .680 v R with GG defense in 150+ games.

Can or should he do better? Okay, sure, yes, but my bar is lower than yours, I guess.

I expect age regression, just as I expect age progression for many of our returning younger players.

I do think Fenway is close to COL as being a hitter's park, but I do not expect numbers from 2019- that last full season Trevor hit over .801. That was 5 years ago.

When Bogey was last seen in Boston he was 29, and hasn’t been the same at 30-31, so Story at 32 even if healthy might not be the Story at 28.

[Old Red]

2 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

True, but if he’s healthy I’d be optimistic his line would be much better than it has been in Boston.

one can be forgiven for not getting their hopes up with Story.  It would certainly be a good story if he has a great season

Healthy first, and then go from there, and see how it turns out.

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

He will replace many of his PAs- not his production. Agreed.

The word "replacing" does not mean in kind.

Well, it doesn't necessarily mean that, but it's often used that way.

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

If Story plays more he should produce more, but I still think he left his Best bats in Colorado three years ago.

I think that was a song by Tony Bennett.

I left my bat 

In Colorado 

A mile high on a hill

It waits for me 

[Bellhorn04]

15 minutes ago, jdc69 said:

Isn't a RHB more important for the Red Sox than most any other team because of the Green Monster?

That's what the perception always was.  Then the analytics guys pointed out that the Wall gives and takes - a lot of balls that would be out in other parks hit the wall and go for singles or doubles instead.

But one thing's for sure, the Sox have been brutal at Fenway the last two years.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Beleaguered be ready for B League basement.

[Old Red]

19 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I think that was a song by Tony Bennett.

I left my bat 

In Colorado 

A mile high on a hill

It waits for me 

👍👍👍