A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[Tedballgame]

59 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

we should have done that. 

He has arm issues that cause the Orioles to pull out of the deal they had with him before he signed with the Jays.

[Larry Cook]

Does scott bring enough value to support the contract? We already have quite a few lefty relievers now 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Larry Cook said:

Does scott bring enough value to support the contract? We already have quite a few lefty relievers now 

It all depends on trusting his last 2 seasons and not much before that.

The guy pitched 150 IP in relief (avg 75 a yr.)

2.04 ERA and 1.05 WHIP

He had nasty numbers vs RHPs, too

,569 OPS Against in '24 (.415 v L)

.499 v R in '23 and .587 v L

He has been one of MLBs best RP'ers for 2 solid years.  He's 30. I'd give him $68M/4 or $80M/5

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Larry Cook said:

Does scott bring enough value to support the contract? We already have quite a few lefty relievers now 

To me, he fills a big need for us and is not a mega contract like Bregman.

[moonslav59]

2023-2024

fWAR: 4.5 Scott, 4.0 Clase, 3.8 Jax & Helsley, 3.6 Hoffman (Chapman is 8th)

He's let up just 6 HRs in 146 IP.

[notin]

11 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Does scott bring enough value to support the contract? We already have quite a few lefty relievers now 

I wouldn’t pass on Tanner Scott just because I signed Justin Wilson…

[Duran Is The Man]

11 hours ago, Tedballgame said:

He has arm issues that cause the Orioles to pull out of the deal they had with him before he signed with the Jays.

that should have made him more attractive to the Sox and their desire to have an entire rotation of rehabbing pitchers.

[notin]

1 hour ago, Duran Is The Man said:

that should have made him more attractive to the Sox and their desire to have an entire rotation of rehabbing pitchers.

I think it’s funny that the only way the Blue Jays can attract free agents is to pay full price for players not healthy enough for Baltimore, a team that some 72 hours earlier signed Andrew Kittredge, who himself has had his share of recent injury problems.  (But not in 2024.)

[Larry Cook]

12 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

2023-2024

fWAR: 4.5 Scott, 4.0 Clase, 3.8 Jax & Helsley, 3.6 Hoffman (Chapman is 8th)

He's let up just 6 HRs in 146 IP.

I wonder how the spray graph translate to Fenway for scott???  
I have to admit, I have not watched him pitch much in two years 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, notin said:

I wouldn’t pass on Tanner Scott just because I signed Justin Wilson…

To me, Wilson may be gone by August. He's over-the-hill and wasn't all that good in '24.

Scott is great vs RHPs, too, so I don't see having Scott, Chapman and Wilson as being unbalanced.

Scott is a closer. He also has pitched about 75 IP in both of the last 2 seasons. That's 20-25 innings more than many closers and 10-20 innings more than most of them.

He will basically get two Jansen deals- back to back, but he's way younger than Jansen.

Just do it!

He'd turn Hendriks and Chapman into decent set-up guys, instead of having to find which one could be an oka closer. He'd turn Slaten and Whitlock into high leverage 6th to 8th inning guys, with  Whitlock able to go 2 innings. It would push Wink and Wilson down one peg and into more comfortable medium leverage roles. The 8th RP'er could end up being our 6th starter, a SP'er from AAA, like Criswell, Fitts or Priester, used to eat up many innings or someone like Guerrero.

I could see rotating the 8th guys between Criswell, Priester, Fitts and maybe Dobbins or Fulmer (who needs to be added to the 40, first- maybe when Sandoval is placed on the 60.) Once we use one of these guys for 3-6 innings, we demote them and call up a fresh arm who is ready to do teh same, if needed, the next day or whenever. Keep cycling them.

[Tedballgame]

Don't sign Bregman . Save it for Pedro next year. He wants to play in Boston.

 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Tedballgame said:

Don't sign Bregman . Save it for Pedro next year. He wants to play in Boston.

And if the Mets want to replace the loss of Alonso with Valddy, we will  outbid them?

We can't count on outbidding anyone for anyone.

We probably have a better chance at winning the Bregman offer, since the Yanks, Mets and Dodgers are not in the mix.

I'm not saying we should do it. I have serious reservations on signing a .795 guy, even if we play him at 3B and somehow move Yoshida to make room for Casas/Devers at DH.

We aren't getting equal value back by trading Casas, and Casas is a better hitter than Bregman, maybe even against LHPs, going forward.

Gasp, gasp, the only real option, upon signing Bregman is this: Sign Bregman to play 3B, move Devers to a 1B/DH share with Casas and go with a Yoshida-Ref platoon in LF. Duran plays FT CF. Abreu and Rafaela platoon RF, until Anthony wins the job.

1. Duran CF

2. Bregman 3B

3. Casas DH/1B

4. Devers 1B/DH

5. Story SS

6. Yoshida-Ref DH

7. Abreu-Rafaela RF

8. Campbell or DHam-Grissom 2B

9, Wong0Narvaez C

That's a decent line-up and an improved defensive team, as the upgrade at 3B outweighs the loss in LF. (Remember, we are also replacing O'Neill's D with more OF time from Rafaela. Maybe the total OF D remains about the same.)

Personally, I do not think Bregman is the guy to pick to spend the most FA money on since Price.

[notin]

2 hours ago, Tedballgame said:

Don't sign Bregman . Save it for Pedro next year. He wants to play in Boston.

 

Pedro?  You mean Vlad Guerrero?  Not to be confused or related to former Dodger Error Machine Pedro Guerrero.

I’m starting to wonder if Bregman isn’t the right guy.  Vlad is already asking for $450mill, and I’m guessing he won’t want $15mill per for 30 years.  If Bregman is looking at $200 over seven, it’s probably an easier deal for the Sox to live with…

[mvp 78]

12 minutes ago, notin said:

Pedro?  You mean Vlad Guerrero?  Not to be confused or related to former Dodger Error Machine Pedro Guerrero.

I’m starting to wonder if Bregman isn’t the right guy.  Vlad is already asking for $450mill, and I’m guessing he won’t want $15mill per for 30 years.  If Bregman is looking at $200 over seven, it’s probably an easier deal for the Sox to live with…

Pedro was great in RBI Baseball for NES. Need to bring that bat to the current Sox team.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Pedro?  You mean Vlad Guerrero?  Not to be confused or related to former Dodger Error Machine Pedro Guerrero.

I’m starting to wonder if Bregman isn’t the right guy.  Vlad is already asking for $450mill, and I’m guessing he won’t want $15mill per for 30 years.  If Bregman is looking at $200 over seven, it’s probably an easier deal for the Sox to live with…

Shouldn't the fist big FA contract after Price, for 6+ Years be somebody we look and say, "Wow! Now there is someone we really need!"

Not a guy we say, "Uh, oh- now we have to play him out of position or risk pissing off our $313M man.

Not a guy where we have to bench a $54M/3 DH to get Devers to 1B/DH.

Not a guy who has hit just .795 in a very long sample size of 5 years as he turns 31 on opening day.

If they sign Bregman to play 2B, I'm jumping ship on Brez & Co.

[moonslav59]

Are the possible 2025 numbers over the top, or could they be realistic?

Full Timers:

.285  40  120 Devers

.260 35 100 Casas

.295  25  85 Duran (120 runs & 90 xBHs)

.250 20  90 Story (550 PAs)

.275  15  60 Wong (500 PAs)

Not Full Timers:

.290  15  75 Yoshida (500 PAs) 

.260  20  80 Abreu (500 PAs)

.250  15  70 Rafaela (500 PAs)

.250  10  40 (350 PAs) DHam

.250 10  40 (350 PAs) Grissom + Romy

.280 10 45 (300 PAs) Refsnyder

.230 10 30 (200 PAs) Narvaez (.310 OBP)

 

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

All kinds of talk this weekend by Cora and the front office about plans to increase the versatility of many young players: Campbell at SS, Mayer at 2B/3B, Abreu at 1B, Hamilton to the outfield... 

Could be excuses to go with the youth and not spend on a Bregman, but one thing that shouldn't be overlooked is the impact a veteran winner can have on an unproven, up-and-coming core. 

Maybe Buehler can be that leader for the pitching staff, because none of the new White Sox guys -- Crochet, Giolito, Hendriks -- have ever won. For the bullpen we have Chapman, for what that's worth. But as for regulars, the vets are Raffy -- who doesn't yet want the role -- and Story, who doesn't have the cred...

[Randy Red Sox]

On 1/5/2025 at 12:23 PM, notin said:

There’s a difference between misidentifying talent and signing players who get injured.  So Story was a failed signing by Bloom but Sale was a successful one for DD?  Seems counterintuitive.

DD did have more success stories, but he signed a lot more large deals.  And when forced to operate on a budget, he didn’t do so well.  Comparing the jobs each one did to each other is not the same at all.

Yes Bloom missed on those low impact deals like Kluber, etc.  How much did those handicap the team?  And why is the $40-50mill spent on those players somehow more debilitating to the Sox than the $320mill plus spent on Price/Sale/Eovadi for which the Sox received about $21 bWAR  total?

Bloom was a disaster although John Henry has to shoulder A LOT of the blame

[Randy Red Sox]

3 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

All kinds of talk this weekend by Cora and the front office about plans to increase the versatility of many young players: Campbell at SS, Mayer at 2B/3B, Abreu at 1B, Hamilton to the outfield... 

Could be excuses to go with the youth and not spend on a Bregman, but one thing that shouldn't be overlooked is the impact a veteran winner can have on an unproven, up-and-coming core. 

Maybe Buehler can be that leader for the pitching staff, because none of the new White Sox guys -- Crochet, Giolito, Hendriks -- have ever won. For the bullpen we have Chapman, for what that's worth. But as for regulars, the vets are Raffy -- who doesn't yet want the role -- and Story, who doesn't have the cred...

we have know for a long time but just didn't want to face up to it that the Sox wanted to go with the cheap young talent over the high priced talent.

[notin]

3 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

All kinds of talk this weekend by Cora and the front office about plans to increase the versatility of many young players: Campbell at SS, Mayer at 2B/3B, Abreu at 1B, Hamilton to the outfield... 

Could be excuses to go with the youth and not spend on a Bregman, but one thing that shouldn't be overlooked is the impact a veteran winner can have on an unproven, up-and-coming core. 

Maybe Buehler can be that leader for the pitching staff, because none of the new White Sox guys -- Crochet, Giolito, Hendriks -- have ever won. For the bullpen we have Chapman, for what that's worth. But as for regulars, the vets are Raffy -- who doesn't yet want the role -- and Story, who doesn't have the cred...

Free agency is getting to the point where a 7 year $200mill contract doesn’t look outlandish anymore.  
 

I think the versatility is to ensure they have SOMEPLACE to play and the Sox don’t have to limit their key acquisitions to players that won’t block a top prospect…

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

All kinds of talk this weekend by Cora and the front office about plans to increase the versatility of many young players: Campbell at SS, Mayer at 2B/3B, Abreu at 1B, Hamilton to the outfield... 

Could be excuses to go with the youth and not spend on a Bregman, but one thing that shouldn't be overlooked is the impact a veteran winner can have on an unproven, up-and-coming core. 

Maybe Buehler can be that leader for the pitching staff, because none of the new White Sox guys -- Crochet, Giolito, Hendriks -- have ever won. For the bullpen we have Chapman, for what that's worth. But as for regulars, the vets are Raffy -- who doesn't yet want the role -- and Story, who doesn't have the cred...

Leadership from a player(s) can be very important, especially to a young team.

I'm not sure you have to have a ring on your hand to be qualified as a good leader, but it probably helps, some. I think Story plays the game hard, and in part, that is why he has gotten hurt, so much, It is hard to be a team leader when you are on the IL 75% of the time, but if Story plays a full season, I could see him becoming a key leader= maybe more so on the defensive side of the game. He might be the closest thing to being a leader from the non pitcher side of the team. Others who have played more than 5 seasons: Devers & Refsnyder.

I don't know enough about the personalities of many of our older, more experienced and or most successful pitchers, like  Buehler, Gio, Hendriks and Chapman. (I almost didn't even include Chapman due to his off field issues.) I don't see Houck, Crawford or Whitlock as natural leaders.

I do think someone like Bregman could add that to this team, but I've soured on the idea, recently. To me, he's just not the kind of guy we should be choosing to be the biggest FA signing since Price. If we signed him to play 3B, he'd be a big boost, but to me, it still is not the major move we needed.

[moonslav59]

We did have a couple major areas of need, that if we had filled them, would not in anyway, shape or form blocked one of our top 3 prospects. Those two areas were and still are:

Catcher (especially defense)

Corner IF defense.

Signing Bregman would not block Campbell or Mayer, as Campbell can play OF, and 2B is wise open. If Story stays healthy, it could squeeze somebody, a little, but at worst, Rafaela becomes the super utility guy with all the flex Cora loves for such a role. Also, if Story stays healthy and does well, we could trade him and save some money to help pay for Bregman and extensions these young players should be given.

Signing a FA catcher was not super costly, this winter: $5.8M x 2 Carson Kelly, $6M x 2 d'Arnaud, $6.75M x 2 Higgy or $8.5M/1 Jansen. Instead we chose a trade for someone who could be good and is good on D, but who fits the 3rd catcher role, not a #2.

It seems we may still be looking at corner IF defense, either by signing Bregman or swapping out Casas for a RHB 1Bman, b ut Alonso is no great glove at 1B, either, and Devers would stay put with an Alonso signing.

Sure, someday, we could see Campbell or Mayer at 3B, and the other at 2B. Anthony could win a FT job in CF or RF, of flip back and forth to accommodate an Abreu platoon with Rafaela or Refsnyder.

We do seem to have a lot of flexibility and depth, despite having so many players who look best placed at DH. (Yoshida- 3 yrs, Refsnyder 1 yr, Devers- 9 yrs and Casas 4 yrs.)

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Free agency is getting to the point where a 7 year $200mill contract doesn’t look outlandish anymore.  
 

I think the versatility is to ensure they have SOMEPLACE to play and the Sox don’t have to limit their key acquisitions to players that won’t block a top prospect…

I just read this after my most recent post.

Yes! Adding a catcher blocks nobody. Adding Bregman may block Yoshida, but not really a prospect, even if Story stays healthy for 3 more years.

[moonslav59]

To steal a notin idea: Seam Murphy is owed $15M x 4 with a 5th year team option at 415M w no buy out. His tax hit is just $12.2M x 5. A straight swap of Story (owed $22.5, $25, $25 plus $5M buy out= $77.5M/3) with a $23.3M tax line. Maybe we give them $16M over 4 years to just about even up the money, but we'd save $6M a year on the tax line. We'd fill our catcher need and our reliable RHB with some power.

This would totally rely on Mayer at SS with Rafaela & Romy as the only real back-ups, until Romero & Arias are ML ready.

Sign Tanner Scott at $68M/4 or $80M/5. I think this would turn us into a top 3-4 AL team.

1. L Duran LF

2. R Murphy C

3. L Casas 1B

4. L Devers 3B

5. R Campbell 2B

6. L Anthony CF

7. L Abreu RF/ R Refsnyder DH

8.  L Yoshida DH/ R Rafaela RF

9. L Mayer SS

Bench: Wong C, Rafaela/Abreu,  Refsnyder/Yoshida and one from DHam, Grissom or Romy

SP: Crochet, Houck, Buehler, bello, Giolito, Crawford

RP: Scott, Hendriks, Chapman, Slaten, Whitlock, Winckowski, Wilson, Guerrero or Weissert

 

[moonslav59]

ST'ing a month away and several big names still on the market. Not many are fits for us, but some are.

[notin]

12 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

ST'ing a month away and several big names still on the market. Not many are fits for us, but some are.

Tanner Scott is, but he’s a fit for everyone.

I still think Bregman will happen…

[moonslav59]

25 minutes ago, notin said:

Tanner Scott is, but he’s a fit for everyone.

I still think Bregman will happen…

Bregman may be the Boras blunder for 2024. I hope his price and/or years drop.

It was a little encouraging to hear the language change on "waiting" to maybe tell Devers about a position change until they are "about" to make a kove.

I realize others want Scott, but this is not a $200 or $750M auction.

[moonslav59]

Padres are open to trading their closer, Robert Suarez.

He's almost 34 and has 3 years left on his deal ($10M, $8M, $8M) and $9.2 tax line.

At that age and cost, the return should not be that hurtful.

[moonslav59]

Cora on Yoshi playing OF...

 

“Yeah, our outfield defense was great last year, but in a perfect world, if he was healthy, he was going to play the outfield,” Cora said, as relayed by Cotillo. “The throwing part of it wasn’t there so that’s the reason he actually didn’t play. Hopefully, we can get him there and we can use him in the outfield, too.”

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

One of Breslow's stated offseason priorities was to balance the batting line-up with some right-handed hitters.

So far, the Red Sox have lost one -- their team home run champ, O'Neill.

The plan can't just be to play Refsnyder more and get full, healthy seasons out of Story and Grissom -- who have never hit in Boston yet.

If not signing someone actually good (no one's counting on that anymore), or trading for someone mediocre, then Kristian Campbell has to be a key in the heart of the order this year...