A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[Hugh2]

Edit Contreras is 32, so two of those guys are ONE year younger than him

[moonslav59]

Okay, the Willson idea was a bad one.

What other team has a decent catcher they can trade away?

[win red sox]

I think Contreras solves a couple if issues. While he is slightly below average on defense it would still be a significant upgrade over Wong. The Bat plays at any position .380 obp, 93rd percentile for xwOBA, 86th percentile for exit velocity.

I don't think it would take alot to acquire him, the trick would be convincing him to waive his NTC without picking up his team option.  You could rotate him C/1B/DH.

I also would think that given the choice of Bregman 5/150 or Arrenado. lets say 3/45 and Contreras at 3/54.5.  Contreras would have the best impact.

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, win red sox said:

I think Contreras solves a couple if issues. While he is slightly below average on defense it would still be a significant upgrade over Wong. The Bat plays at any position .380 obp, 93rd percentile for xwOBA, 86th percentile for exit velocity.

I don't think it would take alot to acquire him, the trick would be convincing him to waive his NTC without picking up his team option.  You could rotate him C/1B/DH.

Unless he can catch 60-70% of the games, I'm not sure it works, especially if we ever get a real 3Bman and push Devers to 1B/DH.

If we can somehow include Yoshida in a trade for Contreras or Arenado & Contreras, I'm listening.

[Larry Cook]

13 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Hunter Dobbins is 25. 

Dobbins could see time in Boston this year. The stuff does not have the wow factor, but when command and control are working, he can get batters out with a couple different pitches 

[mvp 78]

10 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Dobbins could see time in Boston this year. The stuff does not have the wow factor, but when command and control are working, he can get batters out with a couple different pitches 

Blooming late in his MiLB career the some adjustments under the new admin. Maybe he can continue to improve and provide something. Ceiling of a 4/5, but maybe a bulk innings guy in the pen? 

[moonslav59]

Let's say we hold off trying to trade Yoshida and Abreu and make one RP'er signing like Carlos Estevez. (Maybe, we DFA Sogard or Shugart or make some minor trade to clear a spot.)

How competitive is this team?

SP: Crochet, Houck, Bello, Buehler, Giolito, Crawford (Sandoval 60 IL)

(AAA: Criswell, Fitts, Priester, Dobbins- NR Fulmer)

RP: Hendriks, Chapman, Slaten, Estevez, Whitlock, Winckowski, Wislon, Guerrero

(AAA: Guerrero, Kelly, Bernardino, Penrod, Shugart- NR Campbell, Mata)

C: Wong, Narvaez- NR Zavala

1B: Casas- NR Hickey

2B: DHam, Grissom- NR Campbell

SS: Story, Romy- NR Mayer

3B: Devers- NR Eaton

LF: Duran, Refsnyder

CF: Rafaela- NR Anthony

RF: Abreu- Sogard - NR Sikes

DH: Yoshida

[moonslav59]

Only 15 of the 40 Man Roster players are non pitchers. One is in AA (Jh Garica) and one is Sogard.

We do have the big three prospects ready to jump on the 40, when we are ready for them on the 26, but that is pretty amazing having 25 of the 40 as pitchers.

On top of that, we have a pretty decent list of ML ready pitchers after those 25: Fulmer, I Campbell, Mata, Mills, A Adams, N Davis, J Adames, H Harris

Well, we did use 34 players as pitchers in 2024, 3 were non pitchers in a clean-up role.

10 were added to the organization after opening day: Keller, Horn, Garcia, Sims, Paxton, Priester, Hill, Wingenter, Jacquez and Y Ramirez, so basically, we used 21 pitchers that started the year in the Sox organization. We might not have to go outside the organization, so much, this year.

[Larry Cook]

If Wong gets hurt in early 2025, we are in a world of hurt!!! Zavela?? Hickey?? 
this could be uglier than a Steinbrenner family reunion!!! 

[notin]

6 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

If Wong gets hurt in early 2025, we are in a world of hurt!!! Zavela?? Hickey?? 
this could be uglier than a Steinbrenner family reunion!!! 

Yeah it’ll be awful watching all those pitches get blocked…

[moonslav59]

It's not like McGuire was doing great things, last year. Losing Jansen hurt.

I think Narvaez may be okay, and he's good on D, but I'd feel better with someone else- not for back-up, but as a starter.

On the everyday player side of the coin, the big losses were O'Neill and a couple months of Jansen. Our gains have to come from Narvaez and 2024 injured players (Story, Casas and a few other shorter stints) to make up for those losses, at least until we decide to call up the kids.

The rotation made great gains. We replaced Pivetta with Crochet, Buehler, Giolito and Sandoval. Guys like Criswell, Fitts, Priester, Dobbins and Fulmer look better than our depth did, last January.

The pen has some promise, but losing Jansen & Martin makes it a huge question mark. We added Chapman & Wilson, and may add more to come, but we also will see Hendriks & Whitlock and maybe our 6th starter and or Criswell & other AAA starters helping in the pen. To me, the pen looks deeper than last winter but lacking at the closer slot.

The defense can improve with a near full season from Story, but that is sounding like a broken record. C, 3B and 1B remain awful. The OF should be better with Rafaela replacing O'Neills innings on OF D.

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Like most Sox fans, what I'm really looking forward to this season is seeing the new guys, and how they help the club.

That includes pitchers Crochet and Buehler (the other free agent arms they signed, not so much), and especially the debuts and contributions of rookies that Boston and the industry has been hyping: Anthony, Campbell and Mayer.

If the Red Sox don't promote at least one or two of these guys from Spring Training on -- and let them become big leaguers -- it won't be as fun. 

I have less interest in seeing the same regulars return from a .500 team -- minus last year's home run leader -- and hope they all can recover from injuries and stay healthy. 

It's time for new blood. If they're not going to pay for authentic free agent talent, then bring it up; they're ready and we're ready.

[harmony]

11 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Let's say we hold off trying to trade Yoshida and Abreu and make one RP'er signing like Carlos Estevez. (Maybe, we DFA Sogard or Shugart or make some minor trade to clear a spot.)

How competitive is this team?

SP: Crochet, Houck, Bello, Buehler, Giolito, Crawford (Sandoval 60 IL)

(AAA: Criswell, Fitts, Priester, Dobbins- NR Fulmer)

RP: Hendriks, Chapman, Slaten, Estevez, Whitlock, Winckowski, Wislon, Guerrero

(AAA: Guerrero, Kelly, Bernardino, Penrod, Shugart- NR Campbell, Mata)

C: Wong, Narvaez- NR Zavala

1B: Casas- NR Hickey

2B: DHam, Grissom- NR Campbell

SS: Story, Romy- NR Mayer

3B: Devers- NR Eaton

LF: Duran, Refsnyder

CF: Rafaela- NR Anthony

RF: Abreu- Sogard - NR Sikes

DH: Yoshida

FanGraphs currently projects the Red Sox eighth in the American League in overall 2025 WAR, including second in the league in pitching WAR and 14th in position player WAR:

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=3

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

5 minutes ago, harmony said:

FanGraphs currently projects the Red Sox eighth in the American League in overall 2025 WAR, including second in the league in pitching WAR and 14th in position player WAR:

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=3

They rate Sox hitters middle of the pack in the AL, and I'm assuming it's all about star power.

New York, Texas, Baltimore, Houston, Minnesota, Seattle and KC -- most have studs... though the Twins' Correa and M's JRod weren't much better than Devers' damaged goods season.

[Bellhorn04]

9 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

They rate Sox hitters middle of the pack in the AL, and I'm assuming it's all about star power.

New York, Texas, Baltimore, Houston, Minnesota, Seattle and KC -- most have studs... though the Twins' Correa and M's JRod weren't much better than Devers' damaged goods season.

They expect Duran to regress back to about 3 WAR, and they're not projecting much for Anthony and Campbell.

And oh yeah, O'Neill is gone and not replaced.

So I get it. 

[harmony]

11 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

They rate Sox hitters middle of the pack in the AL, and I'm assuming it's all about star power.

New York, Texas, Baltimore, Houston, Minnesota, Seattle and KC -- most have studs... though the Twins' Correa and M's JRod weren't much better than Devers' damaged goods season.

Last year Julio Rodriguez may have suffered the age 23 curse of elite Dominican hitters.

In his age 23 season, Rodriguez posted a 3.8 fWAR after posting a 5.8 fWAR the previous year.

In his age 23 season in 2022, Juan Soto posted a 3.7 fWAR after posting a 6.8 fWAR the previous year.

In his age 23 season in 2022, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. posted a 3.3 fWAR after posting a 6.3 fWAR the previous year.

Fernando Tatis Jr, missed his age 23 season after posting a 6.8 fWAR the previous year. Tatis saw his fWAR drop to 4.1 in his age 24 season.

No need to panic over Julio Rodriguez.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

12 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

They expect Duran to regress back to about 3 WAR, and they're not projecting much for Anthony and Campbell.

And oh yeah, O'Neill is gone and not replaced.

So I get it. 

On their "rule-of-thumb" chart for WAR numbers, a "Solid Starter" is between 2 and 3 WAR.

The Sox are projected to have three solid starters: Devers, Duran, Casas.

A "scrub" is between 0 and 1 WAR.

The Sox are projected to have 11 scrubs: Story, Anthony, Ref, Gris, Hammy, three catchers, Romy, Mayer and Sogard. 

But we'll be a playoff team contending to go deep in the postseason...

[moonslav59]

35 minutes ago, harmony said:

FanGraphs currently projects the Red Sox eighth in the American League in overall 2025 WAR, including second in the league in pitching WAR and 14th in position player WAR:

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=3

Yes, I saw that. The 14th placing is puzzling. We were 8th, last year and lost O'Neill and McGuire/Jansen. We could be adding Story, Casas and 1-3 top prospects to the mix. I'd think that would keep us close to even, at worst. 

It's not like other AL teams added so much, over the winter, to pass us. The Yanks lost Soto. HOU lost Bregman. BAL lost Santander. Who gained a lot?

There are other teams as young as we are, but about 10 of our 13 everyday players are pre-prime, just entering prime or in peak prime. Our oldest everyday player is our short-side DH/LF platoon, Refsnyder at age 34. Then, a guy who barely played last year- Story at age 32. In terms of expected age progression, most key So everyday players should improve on 2024's numbers.

The defense hurts their WAR. We were 5th in offense on fangraphs, last year and 12th on D.

[mvp 78]

55 minutes ago, harmony said:

FanGraphs currently projects the Red Sox eighth in the American League in overall 2025 WAR, including second in the league in pitching WAR and 14th in position player WAR:

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=3

You love this post. 

[mvp 78]

23 minutes ago, harmony said:

Last year Julio Rodriguez may have suffered the age 23 curse of elite Dominican hitters.

In his age 23 season, Rodriguez posted a 3.8 fWAR after posting a 5.8 fWAR the previous year.

In his age 23 season in 2022, Juan Soto posted a 3.7 fWAR after posting a 6.8 fWAR the previous year.

In his age 23 season in 2022, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. posted a 3.3 fWAR after posting a 6.3 fWAR the previous year.

Fernando Tatis Jr, missed his age 23 season after posting a 6.8 fWAR the previous year. Tatis saw his fWAR drop to 4.1 in his age 24 season.

No need to panic over Julio Rodriguez.

Soto's "curse" was just a bad defensive year. He still had a 146 wRC+. The curse was really being sent to San Diego in the second half where he OPS'd 778 instead of the 893 he started with in WSH. I think interrupting his season with a trade was a bigger impact than some curse. 

Vlad Jr may have had a 3.7 fWAR, but he followed it up with a 1.3 fWAR season at age 24. Which was really cursed? 

Can't really call Tatis' season cursed if he was simply suspended for doing something dumb. 

Pujol put up a 9.5 fWAR at age 23. Vlad Sr had 6.7. Jose Ramirez had 5.1 in his first big year. Machado had 5.7.

If you want to make excuses for Julio Rodriguez potentially being overrated, go for it. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Soto's "curse" was just a bad defensive year. He still had a 146 wRC+. The curse was really being sent to San Diego in the second half where he OPS'd 778 instead of the 893 he started with in WSH. I think interrupting his season with a trade was a bigger impact than some curse. 

Vlad Jr may have had a 3.7 fWAR, but he followed it up with a 1.3 fWAR season at age 24. Which was really cursed? 

Can't really call Tatis' season cursed if he was simply suspended for doing something dumb. 

Pujol put up a 9.5 fWAR at age 23. Vlad Sr had 6.7. Jose Ramirez had 5.1 in his first big year. Machado had 5.7.

If you want to make excuses for Julio Rodriguez potentially being overrated, go for it. 

Devers' age 23 season was Covid year, but in his age 22 season he had 90 extra base hits.

The curse for Raffy is spewed by Cole whenever he faces him.

[harmony]

22 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Soto's "curse" was just a bad defensive year. He still had a 146 wRC+. The curse was really being sent to San Diego in the second half where he OPS'd 778 instead of the 893 he started with in WSH. I think interrupting his season with a trade was a bigger impact than some curse. 

Vlad Jr may have had a 3.7 fWAR, but he followed it up with a 1.3 fWAR season at age 24. Which was really cursed? 

Can't really call Tatis' season cursed if he was simply suspended for doing something dumb. 

Pujol put up a 9.5 fWAR at age 23. Vlad Sr had 6.7. Jose Ramirez had 5.1 in his first big year. Machado had 5.7.

If you want to make excuses for Julio Rodriguez potentially being overrated, go for it. 

Perhaps these 2025 FanGraphs projections properly rate Julio Rodriguez (just ahead of Mookie Betts and 21 slots ahead of Rafael Devers):

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?pos=all&stats=bat&type=fangraphsdc

Or not.😉

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, harmony said:

Perhaps these 2025 FanGraphs projections properly rate Julio Rodriguez (just ahead of Mookie Betts and 21 slots ahead of Rafael Devers):

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?pos=all&stats=bat&type=fangraphsdc

Or not.😉

Yeah, I too would project a career LOW k rate and career HIGH bb rate. Seems normal! He had a great rookie year, but that's still skewing the sample that the calculation is running. He dropped 20 wRC+ in his second year and another 12 last year. Why would I assume he'd go back to 2022 which seems to be an outlier? Doesn't make sense to me. 

[harmony]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Yeah, I too would project a career LOW k rate and career HIGH bb rate. Seems normal! He had a great rookie year, but that's still skewing the sample that the calculation is running. He dropped 20 wRC+ in his second year and another 12 last year. Why would I assume he'd go back to 2022 which seems to be an outlier? Doesn't make sense to me. 

We all have the privilege of assigning appropriate weight to an established projection system and to the bald opinion of an anonymous dude on the internet.

We'll let the season play out.😃

[moonslav59]

Of course some players have their best season at ages 22-25 or 26, but for the most part, players do better from age 26-29 than 22-25. Not everyone follows the norm or "curve," but why project players get worse as they near or enter prime, or reach peak prime?

fWAR 22-24

5.0>3.4>4.1 Devers

-0.1> 2.5>6.7 Duran

0.4> 1.7>0.6 (injured) Casas

0.0>0.2>1.1 Wong

Others have not played 3 years, like Abreu (3.1 in '24), DHam (1.7)and Rafaela (0.9). These are 7 of our top 10 everyday players. The others are Story (age 32), Yoshida (31) and Refsnyder (33-34)

Why expect age regression?

Yes, we lost a big bat in O'Neill. Losing McGuire from 2024 is an addition by subtraction. Jansen was a plus player.

I'm not buying the idea we drop from 8th to 14th, and I don't think that is homerism.

 

[mvp 78]

40 minutes ago, harmony said:

We all have the privilege of assigning appropriate weight to an established projection system and to the bald opinion of an anonymous dude on the internet.

We'll let the season play out.😃

The established projection system that hasn't always projected very well in the past. Let's compare notes at the end of the season! 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

The established projection system that hasn't always projected very well in the past. Let's compare notes at the end of the season! 

They often under project everyone, but the rankings part is puzzling. Why did they shave off more value from the returning 2024 team than other teams that are older, as much or more injury prone, or did nothing to improve or even stay even in returning personnel?

The O's are young, but they lost Santander and others from the previous year.

The Yanks gain a couple nice everyday players but lost Soto and Torres and have some past prime players in key roles.

The Astros lost Tucker & Bregman without equalling w replacements.

The Ms lost Turner & Polanco and added what?

Other teams did nothing special, this winter. (Neither did we with our everyday 13.)

 

[moonslav59]

Hoffman signs with Jays for $33M/3, and will likely be their closer. (Smaller AAV than Chapman.)

[Duran Is The Man]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Hoffman signs with Jays for $33M/3, and will likely be their closer. (Smaller AAV than Chapman.)

we should have done that. 

[moonslav59]

23 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

we should have done that. 

When you figure Scott might make $64M/4, $33M/3 looks nice.

Hoffman does not have a real long success story- like just 2 years, and he just turned 32 a couple days ago, but I'd have topped this deal ($35M/3?)

Edited: I just read this... (maybe not)

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/01/orioles-pulled-out-of-agreement-with-jeff-hoffman-after-flagged-physical.html