A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[notin]

55 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Not much cash for Yoshida, if any, year one, but in later years, maybe half his deal as Monty has 1 year left. We still save $9M a year for 2026 and 2027. We also save on rafaela's deal, that you dislike.

I wasn't aware Monty will not "appear" in 2025.

 

I think he was referring to Yoshida as the guy you’re paying for who won’t appear…

[notin]

Danny Jansen to Tampa.

 

One less viable catcher candidate with actual defensive skills…

[mvp 78]

18 minutes ago, notin said:

I think he was referring to Yoshida as the guy you’re paying for who won’t appear…

They can all be Monty if they want!

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Vaz 2024:

78th percentile fielding run value

84th percentile framing

63rd percentile blocks

Wong and Jeffers are about the same defensive profile. Bad. Both are bottom 15th percentile in blocks and franking but have decent pop times/caught stealing. 

There is more to catching than those three areas. I'll leave it at that.

[mvp 78]

22 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

There is more to catching than those three areas. I'll leave it at that.

Which ones are Vaz deficient in? 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Which ones are Vaz deficient in? 

You know my views on how catchers handle a pitching staff much better or worse than others. I don't feel like going through that, again and again.

[Thunder]

I've heard rumblings of anybody from Rafaela, Abreu, Casas, and Duran being available for a trade.

Just curious what everybody thinks the best moves would be? I'm seeing a lot of you willing to trade Rafaela. I personally would rather lose Abreu and/or Casas. After all, the lefty bats are the issue here. Why trade away the righty and fall even more into an imbalance?

Duran to me is untouchable. Until otherwise proven by a hypothetical Dominican superstar who shall remain nameless joining the outfield, he's the leading spark in the organization, the igniter so to speak.

 

I've heard murmurings that the Pirates are interested in Casas. With great corner infield options available on the market, what's so bad around dealing Casas for great young talent? Clear some more cap room and allow yourself to sign an Alonso or Walker? Seems like a good situation to me.

[notin]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

There is more to catching than those three areas. I'll leave it at that.

Good thing, because Jeffers sucks at those three.

 

Ryan Jeffers is a DH who owns catching gear.  If the Sox move Yoshida, he makes more sense as an acquisition…

[notin]

2 minutes ago, Thunder said:

I've heard rumblings of anybody from Rafaela, Abreu, Casas, and Duran being available for a trade.

Just curious what everybody thinks the best moves would be? I'm seeing a lot of you willing to trade Rafaela. I personally would rather lose Abreu and/or Casas. After all, the lefty bats are the issue here. Why trade away the righty and fall even more into an imbalance?

Duran to me is untouchable. Until otherwise proven by a hypothetical Dominican superstar who shall remain nameless joining the outfield, he's the leading spark in the organization, the igniter so to speak.

 

I've heard murmurings that the Pirates are interested in Casas. With great corner infield options available on the market, what's so bad around dealing Casas for great young talent? Clear some more cap room and allow yourself to sign an Alonso or Walker? Seems like a good situation to me.

An Abreu trade seems likely, given the rapid ascent of Roman Anthony.  And if the Sox sign Soto, they could easily consider moving Duran or Rafaela, due to a suddenly overcrowded outfield. Not sure Rafaela gets you much given his lackluster bat and contract extension.  So would they move Duran?  Might be a “sell high” opportunity.  Of course, selling high is always such a tough decision in any aspect of life…

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

An Abreu trade seems likely, given the rapid ascent of Roman Anthony.  And if the Sox sign Soto, they could easily consider moving Duran or Rafaela, due to a suddenly overcrowded outfield. Not sure Rafaela gets you much given his lackluster bat and contract extension.  So would they move Duran?  Might be a “sell high” opportunity.  Of course, selling high is always such a tough decision in any aspect of life…

I think we trade Abreu- with or without Soto, and it will likely be for pitching, not a RHB.

I think Campbell might be the RHB we need.

[moonslav59]

Bieber re-signs with CLE.

TWard cleared waivers and stays in BAL system.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

48 minutes ago, notin said:

 Of course, selling high is always such a tough decision in any aspect of life…

This is why I always try to stay sober before selling any baseball cards or comic books.

[notin]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

This is why I always try to stay sober before selling any baseball cards or comic books.

The important thing is that you try…

[moonslav59]

Holmes to Mets.

$38M/3 (a bit more than what MLBTR projected.)

[moonslav59]

Top FAs still on the market that may fit with the Sox.

A++ Soto

A+ Burnes and Fried

A Bregman and Adames (move Devers to 1B/DH)

A Scott

A- Flaherty, Manaea, Eovaldi

B+ Hoffman, Estevez 

B+ Teoscar, Santander, O'Neill

B Minter, Yates, Kittredge

B- Pivetta, Heaney, Quintana

B- Alonso, Walker (Casas to DH or trade)

Did I miss anyone?

 

[Larry Cook]

8 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Three way deal:

To BOS: Luis Castillo SP1, Ryan Helsley Closer & Mitch Garver C/DH

To SEA: Arenado, Mayer and Fitts
To STL: Yoshida +$5M a year from BOS, Kelly, Cespedes & Arias

I would do this in a heartbeat. 

[Duran Is The Man]

2 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

I would do this in a heartbeat. 

me too.

[moonslav59]

29 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

I would do this in a heartbeat. 

We might have to pay SEA $5M a year, too.

[moonslav59]

Some of these placements are a stretch, but here are players that can play at various positions:

C Wong, Gasper, Teel

1B Casas, (Devers,) Romy, Wong, Gasper

2B Campbell, DHam, Grissom, (Story,) Mayer, Meidroth, EValdez, Sogard,  Wong/Gasper

SS Story, Romy, Mayer, DHam, Meidroth, Grissom

3B Devers, Grissom, (Campbell,) Romy, Meidroth, Eaton

LF Duran, (Anthony, Abreu, ) Refsnyder, Campbell

CF Anthony, Rafaela, (Duran, Abreu,) Campbell

RF Abreu (Anthony,) Campbell, Refsnyder

DH: Yoshida (Casas, Devers) Refsnyder, EValdez

[Thunder]

Why would Seattle be so willing to give up Castillo and Garver in this scenario? Can somebody fill me in? Apologies for stupid question if there is something I am missing. Garver I can see - but why Castillo?

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, Thunder said:

Why would Seattle be so willing to give up Castillo and Garver in this scenario? Can somebody fill me in? Apologies for stupid question if there is something I am missing. Garver I can see - but why Castillo?

Garver is a salary dump. They'd hand him away for no return.

Castillo is aging and showing signs of decline. His value has risen and FA costs for similar pitchers are coming in above expectations.. They need a 3Bman and middle IF'er, badly. They'd get Arenado & Mayer, along with Fitts. The money is close to even, especially if we add $5M a year to the offer. (COL is already paying $5M a year for Arenado.)

We may have to improve the offer, and I'm sure harmony would dislike the offer.

I'm not sure STL likes the offer either. I was working off the framework of an offer suggested in some article. Adding Yoshida to the deal could break any deal, even with a chink of money included or by taking away Arenado's larger contract. Helsley is real good, but he has just 1 year of control. If STL is looking to rebuild, trading Arenado and Helsley makes a ton of sense. I'm not sure if they like Cespedes and Arias. Maybe they like Bleis, JH Garcia or Romero. Maybe they insist on Mayer or Teel.

Maybe this would be more to the liking of SEA & STL:

TO BOS: Castillo, Helsley, Garver

TO SEA: Arenado (+$5M/yr from BOS), Mayer, Meidroth, Fitts

TO STL: Yoshida (+5M/yr from BOS), Arias, Priester, Cespedes

(Maybe Abreu can be worked into the deal and subtract a prospect or two.)

[Thunder]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

Garver is a salary dump. They'd hand him away for no return.

Castillo is aging and showing signs of decline. His value has risen and FA costs for similar pitchers are coming in above expectations.. They need a 3Bman and middle IF'er, badly. They'd get Arenado & Mayer, along with Fitts. The money is close to even, especially if we add $5M a year to the offer. (COL is already paying $5M a year for Arenado.)

Thanks. Still not convinced that I would want him on my team, but I know we have been linked to Arenado in various trade rumors and I would rather have Castillo than Arenado if I had a gun to my head. Got to watch Arenado a couple different times at PNC Park last year. He looked like an absolute shell of himself. I wouldn't poke that with a stick.

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, Thunder said:

Thanks. Still not convinced that I would want him on my team, but I know we have been linked to Arenado in various trade rumors and I would rather have Castillo than Arenado if I had a gun to my head. Got to watch Arenado a couple different times at PNC Park last year. He looked like an absolute shell of himself. I wouldn't poke that with a stick.

I thought I read somewhere that SEA was talking to STL about Arenado. To me the inclusion of Yoshida would be the sticking point in the trade, and it one big plus for the Sox to get rid of most of his contract. Castillo may be in decline, but I'd rather pay him and Garver than Yoshida. Helsley seals the deal for BOS.

I've been thinking more and more about Pablo Lopez, who seems like a better pitcher, going forward, than Castillo, AND he pitches for a team looking to trade salary.

I've suggested deals for Lopez and Jhoan Duran, but I have no idea who MN likes or what they need. My guess is, they would want near ML ready top prospects, like...

Mayer, Abreu, Priester, Fitts and Cespedes for the two. That may not be enough. They might insist on including Teel and adding Vaz or Jeffers to the return.

 

[Larry Cook]

I saw the Yankees are interested in arenado! 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

9 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Top FAs still on the market that may fit with the Sox.

A++ Soto

A+ Burnes and Fried

A Bregman and Adames (move Devers to 1B/DH)

A Scott

A- Flaherty, Manaea, Eovaldi

B+ Hoffman, Estevez 

B+ Teoscar, Santander, O'Neill

B Minter, Yates, Kittredge

B- Pivetta, Heaney, Quintana

B- Alonso, Walker (Casas to DH or trade)

Did I miss anyone?

 

Buehler -- too many absences for full semester credits, but he did ace his finals.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

18 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Three way deal:

To BOS: Luis Castillo SP1, Ryan Helsley Closer & Mitch Garver C/DH

To SEA: Arenado, Mayer and Fitts
To STL: Yoshida +$5M a year from BOS, Kelly, Cespedes & Arias

Mayer, Arias and Cespedes are three good shortstop prospects, though the latter may move to another position. Sure, we have a lot of middle infield depth that we can deal, but I have to keep one of the best -- either Mayer or Arias (just so we don't have to overpay again for the next Trevor Story).

Maybe the front office has identified Mikey Romero as the core SS for the next decade? It's not like the Sox can count on Story as a rock of stability... he may be gritty, but like loose shale on a narrow mountain path.

[Thunder]

9 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

I saw the Yankees are interested in arenado! 

Good, let Arenado go there and have their black hole at 3B continue. I think he will be a bust wherever he goes. I really do. If I’m wrong, I will gladly eat crow

[notin]

13 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

I would do this in a heartbeat. 

I would too if I was running the Cardinals or (especially) the Mariners.  But the Red Sox?  Hopefully Breslow gets canned if he accepts.  
 

A top ten prospect, another top 100 prospect, two other prospects and most of Yoshida’s contract for a decent but pricey SP, one year of a closer, and a salary dump catcher that needs to rebound?

 

I popped it into BTV.  The Sox lose $53.5mill in surplus value.  Basically in this deal, you’re giving away Marcelo Mayer for nothing…

[Bellhorn04]

10 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

I saw the Yankees are interested in arenado! 

I think everybody is still interested in everybody at this point.

[notin]

17 hours ago, Thunder said:

I've heard rumblings of anybody from Rafaela, Abreu, Casas, and Duran being available for a trade.

Just curious what everybody thinks the best moves would be? I'm seeing a lot of you willing to trade Rafaela. I personally would rather lose Abreu and/or Casas. After all, the lefty bats are the issue here. Why trade away the righty and fall even more into an imbalance?

Duran to me is untouchable. Until otherwise proven by a hypothetical Dominican superstar who shall remain nameless joining the outfield, he's the leading spark in the organization, the igniter so to speak.

 

I've heard murmurings that the Pirates are interested in Casas. With great corner infield options available on the market, what's so bad around dealing Casas for great young talent? Clear some more cap room and allow yourself to sign an Alonso or Walker? Seems like a good situation to me.

Casas is still pre-arb and I prefer him over Alonso.  Neither is good defensively but Casas won’t ruin the budget.  Plus, and this may matter very little to anyone, but Pete Alonso strikes me as the angriest man in MLB.  I’ve seen him fly off the handle for weird s*** - like at a pitcher because his tape measure shot was called foul.  Or that’s what it looked like.  Anyway, no to Angry Pete.

 

Christian Walker is nice, but he’s already 34.  Go shorr.

 

Actually if the Sox do move Casas, I’d hope they backfill with a good all-around third baseman who wasn’t involved in a cheating scandal…