A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

I have to say I am very surprised we DFA'd Campbell over 5 or 6 others. Mata was out of options, so he makes sense.

Protecting Dobbins and JH Garcia is what I expected.

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

I have to say I am very surprised we DFA'd Campbell over 5 or 6 others. Mata was out of options, so he makes sense.

Protecting Dobbins and JH Garcia is what I expected.

Campbell was a Stuff+ guy, but the Sox have their internal metrics and see him everyday. They must not have liked what they were working with. I trust their judgement. He has a good stache game, the rest of it seems to be a struggle. 

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Campbell was a Stuff+ guy, but the Sox have their internal metrics and see him everyday. They must not have liked what they were working with. I trust their judgement. He has a good stache game, the rest of it seems to be a struggle. 

I was thinking the same thing, but I'm just not sure what they see in Horn, Penrod or Gasper.

I don't see Campbell pitch, so my opinion is based on what I read about him. I liked him better than Wikelman, Murphy, Booser, Sogard and even Justin Wilson. It just goes to show how little I and maybe some others know.

I did get the Jh Garcia call right.

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I was thinking the same thing, but I'm just not sure what they see in Horn, Penrod or Gasper.

I don't see Campbell pitch, so my opinion is based on what I read about him. I liked him better than Wikelman, Murphy, Booser, Sogard and even Justin Wilson. It just goes to show how little I and maybe some others know.

I did get the Jh Garcia call right.

Penrod has high octane stuff and is a lefty. Bailey Horn is a lefty. Gasper is the only Catcher on the 40 man not named Wong. Shugart is the low guy on the totem pole to me. 

I think they'll try Wikelman out in the pen before DFA'ing or trading him. Booser wasn't exactly horrible when he pitched. 

I watched some clips of Campbell pitching in SEA and he looked interesting. I saw him pitch in spring training last year and it didn't look that great from what I remember. 

[moonslav59]

11 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Penrod has high octane stuff and is a lefty. Bailey Horn is a lefty. Gasper is the only Catcher on the 40 man not named Wong. Shugart is the low guy on the totem pole to me. 

I think they'll try Wikelman out in the pen before DFA'ing or trading him. Booser wasn't exactly horrible when he pitched. 

I watched some clips of Campbell pitching in SEA and he looked interesting. I saw him pitch in spring training last year and it didn't look that great from what I remember. 

I forgot about Shugart. I think Gaspar gets traded or DFA'd, when we add a ML catcher, and that will happen.

[harmony]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I have to say I am very surprised we DFA'd Campbell over 5 or 6 others. Mata was out of options, so he makes sense.

Protecting Dobbins and JH Garcia is what I expected.

Looking back on the trade of Luis Urias for Isaiah Campbell, Seattle paid Urias $5 million this year to post 0.2 fWAR (0.4 bWAR) in 41 games with the Mariners (in addition to posting decent numbers in 77 games at Triple A).

Boston paid Campbell $746,000 to post a negative 0.4 fWAR (-1.2 bWAR) in six appearances with the Red Sox (and a 2.20 ERA in 14 appearances at Worcester).

Both players have been cut loose this offseason.

Because of the money difference, the frugal Seattle Mariners can't claim a win in the trade.🤨

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, harmony said:

Looking back on the trade of Luis Urias for Isaiah Campbell, Seattle paid Urias $5 million this year to post 0.2 fWAR (0.4 bWAR) in 41 games with the Mariners (in addition to posting decent numbers in 77 games at Triple A).

Boston paid Campbell $746,000 to post a negative 0.4 fWAR (-1.2 bWAR) in six appearances with the Red Sox (and a 2.20 ERA in 14 appearances at Worcester).

Both players have been cut loose this offseason.

Because of the money difference, the frugal Seattle Mariners can't claim a win in the trade.🤨

Going forward, I think I Campbell sticks in the bigs, and he has cost-controlled years remaining. Urias may get another chance, and at less than $5M, IMO.

[Nick]

I think it's incredible that we picked up Roman Anthony and Kristian Campbell from the supplemental draft when both Eovaldi and Xander became free agents and moved on.

I would bet that both Anthony and Campbell will surpass Eovaldi and Xander in any common metrics you come up with over the course of their careers starting in 2023.

I jumped the gun and said "what the hell?" when Pivetta was offered the qualifying option. 

Considering what we gave up in exchange to acquire Pivetta and that we only paid him accumulatively $16M for his 107 starts, we gotta pretty good return on the investment. You throw in the supplemental draft pick, Pivetta was a good investment. 

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

18 minutes ago, Nick said:

I think it's incredible that we picked up Roman Anthony and Kristian Campbell from the supplemental draft when both Eovaldi and Xander became free agents and moved on.

I would bet that both Anthony and Campbell will surpass Eovaldi and Xander in any common metrics you come up with over the course of their careers starting in 2023.

I jumped the gun and said "what the hell?" when Pivetta was offered the qualifying option. 

Considering what we gave up in exchange to acquire Pivetta and that we only paid him accumulatively $16M for his 107 starts, we gotta pretty good return on the investment. You throw in the supplemental draft pick, Pivetta was a good investment. 

It's kinda weird how we have done much better with lower comp picks than our top picks.

2023: Campbell picked after Duffy, Anderson, Zanetello & Teel.

2022: Anthony after Coffey & Romero

2014: Kopech (Ellsbury) after Chavis (later part of Sale trade)

2012: B Johnson & P light (both for Papelbon) after Marrero 

2011: Owens (VMart) after Swihart (Beltre) and Barnes (VMart) -both also comp picks.

2011: JBJ (Beltre) after Owens, Swihart & Barnes

2010: Vitek & Ranaudo (Wagner) were our first & third picks. Brentz & Workman (Jason Bay) were our 2nd and 4th picks.

2008: Stephen Fife (Hunter Morris) after Gibson, B Price (Gagne) and Casey Kelly

We've had some good luck with comp picks. Let's hope the streak continues with the one for Pivetta.

2006: Daniel Bard and K Johnson (Damon) after Jason Place.

2005 wins the award:

1. Ellsbury (Cabrera)

2. Hansen (D Lowe)

3. Buccholz (pedro)

4. Lowrie (Cabrera)

5. Bowden (D Lowe)

6. Egan (Pedro)

Followw this trail: We traded Nomar for Cabrera and a ring, then got Jacoby and Lowrie for Cabrera. Later we got Kopech for Ellsbury and Sale for Kopech (and others.) Now, we have Grissom for Sale. The gift keeps giving, even if the last one was a boobie prize.

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, Nick said:

I think it's incredible that we picked up Roman Anthony and Kristian Campbell from the supplemental draft when both Eovaldi and Xander became free agents and moved on.

I would bet that both Anthony and Campbell will surpass Eovaldi and Xander in any common metrics you come up with over the course of their careers starting in 2023.

I jumped the gun and said "what the hell?" when Pivetta was offered the qualifying option. 

Considering what we gave up in exchange to acquire Pivetta and that we only paid him accumulatively $16M for his 107 starts, we gotta pretty good return on the investment. You throw in the supplemental draft pick, Pivetta was a good investment. 

Brandon Workman only pitched 21 MLB innings after leaving the Sox. He came back to pitch 20 more and then retire after '21. 

Hembree pitched until '23, but amassed -0.9 bWAR and was shuttled to 6 different locations. 

[Larry Cook]

6 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I forgot about Shugart. I think Gaspar gets traded or DFA'd, when we add a ML catcher, and that will happen.

We just signed a Seattle catcher to a minor league deal. 

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

We just signed a Seattle catcher to a minor league deal. 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/seby-zavala/18887/stats?position=C

Decent defensive profile. Most likely a AAA/emergency callup guy. I don't know if they have a backup catcher yet. 

[Tedballgame]

Campbell sucked. Nothing lost there.

[Bellhorn04]

Campbell may have been pitching hurt.  Who knows?  It was 6.2 innings.

He pitched pretty well in his 28.2 inning sample in 2023.

I thought it was a good trade by Breslow. 

[Larry Cook]

8 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Campbell may have been pitching hurt.  Who knows?  It was 6.2 innings.

He pitched pretty well in his 28.2 inning sample in 2023.

I thought it was a good trade by Breslow. 

I am very happy Campbell is on his way out of town. 

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

We just signed a Seattle catcher to a minor league deal. 

We will likely add a ML one, too. I can't see Gasper on the 26, opening day.

[Soxlover]

On 11/20/2024 at 6:04 PM, Larry Cook said:

I am very happy Campbell is on his way out of town. 

Happier than if it had been Shugart, Horn or Wikelman?

[Larry Cook]

It definitely hurt me to watch Campbell pitch!!! What a waste of money 💰 

[Soxlover]

4 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

It definitely hurt me to watch Campbell pitch!!! What a waste of money 💰 

We hardly paid anything for him.

[harmony]

6 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

It definitely hurt me to watch Campbell pitch!!! What a waste of money 💰 

The Red Sox reportedly have brought back Isaiah Campbell and Bryan Mata on minor league contracts:

https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2024/11/red-sox-re-sign-two-pitchers-including-ex-top-prospect-hours-after-cutting-them.html

[Soxlover]

Judging Campbell on one tiny sample size.

im glad we have him on a minor league deal, now.

[Larry Cook]

Looks like we lost Bailey horn. 

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, Soxlover said:

Judging Campbell on one tiny sample size.

im glad we have him on a minor league deal, now.

Can never have enough arms.

[Hugh2]

You can expect several more losses to the 40 man before the offseason is thru

[Tedballgame]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Can never have enough arms.

Campbell sucks. He needs to stay in the minors. Mata is a 4A guy.

[Tedballgame]

2 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Looks like we lost Bailey horn. 

Who cares. He sucked.

[notin]

40 minutes ago, Tedballgame said:

Mata is a 4A guy.

Is that his health insurance carrier?

[notin]

On 11/20/2024 at 8:57 AM, moonslav59 said:

Going forward, I think I Campbell sticks in the bigs, and he has cost-controlled years remaining. Urias may get another chance, and at less than $5M, IMO.

Campbell pitched SIX INNINGS last year.  Why are people giving up on him?

[Duran Is The Man]

6 hours ago, notin said:

Campbell pitched SIX INNINGS last year.  Why are people giving up on him?

i agree. he did well. then he sucked but turns out he was hurt. maybe he really does suck, but i hope he gets another chance.

[Soxlover]

The talk on Campbell before 2024 was pretty good. I’m not sure why one injury season changes the narrative all that much.