A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[Randy Red Sox]

14 hours ago, notin said:

No.

On the bright side, he’s a good pitcher whose Twitter/X handle is @BuehlersDayOff21.

On the downside, he’s only 30 and has already had TJ TWICE!!! No pitcher having a third one has ever pitched again.* Doubtful he gets a long deal, but even a 2-3 year contract stands a far too big of a chance at ending quickly in a pile of dead money and shattered hopes…

 

 

 

*Johnny Venters did, but not very well and not for very long.

i thought he was even younger than 30.  Pass.

[notin]

Gerrit Cole opts out!!!

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/11/gerrit-cole-triggers-opt-out-in-deal-with-yankees.html
 

I did NOT see that one coming!

[notin]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

Gerrit Cole opts out!!!

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/11/gerrit-cole-triggers-opt-out-in-deal-with-yankees.html
 

I did NOT see that one coming!

Cancel my surprise.  The Yankees can void his opt out by giving him an extra year at his $36mill AAV.  This should have been expected…

[dgalehouse]

I heard that Cole tried to work out an extension with the Yankees, but he couldn't get to first base.

[Tedballgame]

Cole was always going to opt out in order to get the extra year and 36 million. No brainer for him.

 

[moonslav59]

6 hours ago, jad said:

I think when you sign FAs like Ohtani and F. Freeman and Yamamoto (and acquire a few role players and scrubs like Betts and T, Hernandez), you know exactly what the impact will be.  When you acquire players like Verdugo and Story and Yoshida and E. Hernandez--all decent players--then you're right, you have no idea what will happen.

It's interesting to note, that even after the Dodgers spent all that winter money, they still ended up needing some deadline deals to win the ring. I can't imagine many owners going to that length to reach glory. Maybe 2-3 others have come close to this last Dodger attempt, but fell short.

[notin]

51 minutes ago, Tedballgame said:

Cole was always going to opt out in order to get the extra year and 36 million. No brainer for him.

 

The thing is, opting him back in is less of a no-brainer than you think.  If the Yankees do, his remaining contract would be the largest for a pitcher of his age, plus make it more difficult to retain Soto…

[moonslav59]

57 minutes ago, notin said:

The thing is, opting him back in is less of a no-brainer than you think.  If the Yankees do, his remaining contract would be the largest for a pitcher of his age, plus make it more difficult to retain Soto…

The one year aspect is hard to ignore.

[moonslav59]

14 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

The Athletic projects these FA salaries:

$41.5M x 15 Soto

$35.2M x 7 Burnes (list Sox as fit)

$35M x 3 Snell

$29M x 6 Fried (Sox fit)

$27M x 7 Alonso

$26.6M x 7 Bregman

$25M x 6 Adames

$23.5 x 6 Santander

$28M x 4 Bellinger

$25M x 3 Teoscar H

$24M x 3 C Walker

$22.6M x 3 Manaea & Flaherty

$18M x 3 Wacha

$21M x 2 Nate (Sox fit)

$15M x 4 Scott

$14.7M x 3 Profar

$14M x 3 Kikuchi (maybe in Sox price range?)

$11M x 4 G Torres

$17M x 2 Hoskins

$16M x 2 O'Neal (Sox only listed fit) & Severino (Sox fit)

$13.3M x 3 N Martinez (Sox fit and maybe most likely signing)

$14M x 2 J Quintana

$11M x 3 Estevez (Sox fit and maybe affordable)

$20M x 1 Morton

$13M x 2 Pederson & Dugo

$12M x 2 B Lowe

$9M x 3 J Hoffman (Sox fit)

$15M x 1 Goldschmidt

$9.3M x 2 C Holmes (Sox)

$8.5M x 2 Treinen

$10M x 1 Boyd (S0x)

$6M x 2 Iggy

Other predictions:

Buehler and H S Kim $10m + incentives

Bieber: "Low Base Salary w incentives"

Monty takes $22.5M option & AZ trades him

 

Who do you sign, if the winter budget is $40-45M?

[notin]

5 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

i thought he was even younger than 30.  Pass.

You are all about the age discrimination.  Next thing you know, you’ll be telling us women have no place in MLB…

[Duran Is The Man]

17 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

The Athletic projects these FA salaries:

$41.5M x 15 Soto

$35.2M x 7 Burnes (list Sox as fit)

$35M x 3 Snell

$29M x 6 Fried (Sox fit)

$27M x 7 Alonso

$26.6M x 7 Bregman

$25M x 6 Adames

$23.5 x 6 Santander

$28M x 4 Bellinger

$25M x 3 Teoscar H

$24M x 3 C Walker

$22.6M x 3 Manaea & Flaherty

$18M x 3 Wacha

$21M x 2 Nate (Sox fit)

$15M x 4 Scott

$14.7M x 3 Profar

$14M x 3 Kikuchi (maybe in Sox price range?)

$11M x 4 G Torres

$17M x 2 Hoskins

$16M x 2 O'Neal (Sox only listed fit) & Severino (Sox fit)

$13.3M x 3 N Martinez (Sox fit and maybe most likely signing)

$14M x 2 J Quintana

$11M x 3 Estevez (Sox fit and maybe affordable)

$20M x 1 Morton

$13M x 2 Pederson & Dugo

$12M x 2 B Lowe

$9M x 3 J Hoffman (Sox fit)

$15M x 1 Goldschmidt

$9.3M x 2 C Holmes (Sox)

$8.5M x 2 Treinen

$10M x 1 Boyd (S0x)

$6M x 2 Iggy

Other odd bals...

Buehler and H S Kim $10m + incentives

Bieber: "Low Base Salary w incentives"

Monty takes $22.5M option & AZ trades him

If our AAV budget is between $35-45M, we could do a lot....

$15M x 4 Scott

$13,3M x 3 N Martinez

$11M x 3 Esteves

This is just over $39M. Sub Nate for Nick at about the same contract number but more AAV ($47M total)

Kikuchi, Nick and Tanner would be under $45M AAV

Soto & C Holmes is just over $50M AAV. (Trade Abreu, DHam and Fitts for SP)

Burnes and Esteves is just over $45M AAV, but Fried and Scott are just under $45M.

My choices, if we spend $45M AAV:

1. $15M x 4 Scott, $13.3M x 3 N Martinez,  $11M x 3 Esteves + Bieber or Buehler

or

2. #13.3M x 3 Nick Martinez, $11M x 3 Estevez, $9,3M x 2 C Holmes, $9M x 3 Hoffman

or

3. $18M x Wacha or $21M Nate w $15M Scott and  $9M x 3 Hoffman

sign Soto and Burnes. it's not like JH can't afford. but he'll choose not too because investors and it's all about the bottom line, winning be damned.

[Larry Cook]

At the start of free agency we have the following starting pitchers on the 40 man roster 

sp1 - Houk.

sp2 - bello

sp3 - giolito 

sp4 - crawford

sp5 -  Criswell

sp6 - fitts 

sp7 - Priester

sp8 - winkleman

sp9 - mata 

sp10 - perales 

I see us needing a sp1 and sp2 in order to move to make the playoffs in 2025. 
 

My first choice is free agent fried. But maybe he is too expensive for us. 
 

I believe we acquire the other starter via the trade route, but understand we have to give quality to get quality 

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

sign Soto and Burnes. it's not like JH can't afford. but he'll choose not too because investors and it's all about the bottom line, winning be damned.

Getting JH to sign just one of these two is likely impossible.

[moonslav59]

Cots has us almost $80M under the tax line, but they have not been so accurate, of late. If the number is $80M, Soto and Burnes might come to that.

If Brez was given $70-75M to spend, according to the projected contracts by The Athletic, we could do wonders. Here are but a few examples:

A) 29 Fried,  16 O'Neill, 15 Scott, 11 Estevez

B)  42 Soto, 18 Wacha, 15 Scott

C) 21 Nate, 18 Wacha, 15 Scott, 9 Hoffman, 9 C Holmes

D) 21 Nate, 15 Scott,  13 N Martinez, 11 Estevez, 9 Hoffman

Then,,, I woke up.

I asked at $40-45M and now $70-75M, what if it's $30-35M?

15 Scott , 13 N Martinez, $9M Hoffman (OK, that's $37M)

[Duran Is The Man]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Getting JH to sign just one of these two is likely impossible.

i know. and fans will continue to despise him even more than they do.

[Randy Red Sox]

5 hours ago, notin said:

You are all about the age discrimination.  Next thing you know, you’ll be telling us women have no place in MLB…

you trying to start a battle??  i thought Buehler was 27 or 28.  If you have been paying attention to my posts you would know that I prefer the Sox add P that fits into their age window of building through our young players and the farm. I have ZERO, ZERO, ZERO interest in adding band-aid 1-2 year fill in guys to keep us around the .500 mark.  John Henry has stated NUMEROUS times that he wants the Sox to be in position to contend EVERY YEAR !!   What a crock of poop that was. !!

[Larry Cook]

It does seem like a couple of quality pitchers these past two years, might have gotten us to the playoffs, but cost us teel and Montgomery 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

12 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

I have ZERO, ZERO, ZERO interest in adding band-aid 1-2 year fill in guys to keep us around the .500 mark.  John Henry has stated NUMEROUS times that he wants the Sox to be in position to contend EVERY YEAR !!   What a crock of poop that was. !!

John's teams are in position to contend in every game every year: he pays nine men to wear uniforms and perform on the field for nine innings... which people still pay him good money just to watch, win or lose...  

(in tie games that extend into a 10th inning, he doesn't even have to pay for extra ghost runners). 

Win some, lose some -- people will come... said John's accountants. What they don't say is the definition of winsome: "attractive or appealing in appearance or character"   -- because maybe that doesn't quite describe the post-MOOKIE Boston Red Sox.

[notin]

13 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

you trying to start a battle??  i thought Buehler was 27 or 28.  If you have been paying attention to my posts you would know that I prefer the Sox add P that fits into their age window of building through our young players and the farm. I have ZERO, ZERO, ZERO interest in adding band-aid 1-2 year fill in guys to keep us around the .500 mark.  John Henry has stated NUMEROUS times that he wants the Sox to be in position to contend EVERY YEAR !!   What a crock of poop that was. !!

There was an obvious joke in there about you also discriminating against women in MLB. (There are no women in MLB.)

However in all seriousness, the Sox need not focus on the age of any starting pitcher.  They have numer Young, cheap pitchers already and may not be better off with another arm ready for arbitration increases at the same time.  The way this team has been lately, that might force team to make unpopular choices…

[moonslav59]

With Pivetta, Jansen and Martin about to depart, our pitching staff got worse but much younger and cheaper. Those three cost $33M in 2024 ($31M on CBT.) That may not seem a like a huge number, but when you figure Gio at $19.25M did not even pitch in 2024, the rest of the 2024 pitching staff that actually pitched combined for a fraction of those 3's cost. (Hendriks and Fulmer did not pitch, either and Whitlock started just 4 games.)

Now, if we do little to replace their value, both in terms of their skill value and their financial cost, we will not see an improved staff. Gio, Hendriks, Fulmer plus more of Whitlock, does not seem nearly enough to cancel out the big 3 losses. In some ways, Pivetta has been our most dependable and productive SP'er since 2021. One major reason for that is that one year signings and young pitchers not in the rotation since 2021, but the fact is, he has been the closest thing to a dependable SP'er we've had in over 5 years. Jansen and Martin have been light years better than the next best RP'er in the last 5-6 seasons- easily. These losses CANNOT be taken lightly. One of my biggest fears is that the Sox upper brass has convinced themselves that Gio, Whitlock, Hendriks and Fulmer can come close to replacing what we lost. 

The way I see it, even if we assume they can come close, and we SHOULD NOT, we'd still just be back at status quo and a .500 team, at best. Even the very best teams look to improve their team on paper, every year. We need to double their efforts.

Before any additions, our pitching budget is very low (AAV listed) :

$19.25M x 1 Giolito

$9,2M x 5 Bello (w option for 2030)

$5M x 1 Hendriks

$4.7M x 2 Whitlock

1st ARB Year: Houck and Crawford

(Only Wink is arb eligible for 2026.)

There is no excuse for not spending on pitching. When you see what we paid for Jansen plus Martin, paying for Tanner Scott should be very reasonable. (The Athletic projects $15M x 4, a smaller AAV than Jansen, alone.) Signing Scott plus Estevez ($11M AAV projected) or Hoffman ($9M AAV) should be doable. If we do nothing to add to the rotation, we simply MUST bolster the pen in a BOLD way.

I'd feel a lot better adding a second tier SP'ers, if we take care of the pen, as I suggested we do, above. (Projected cost) Nick Martinez ($13.3M x 3) J Quintana ($14M x 2) Kikuchi ($14M x 3) Wacha ($18 x 3) Nate ($21 x 2) Flaherty or Manaea ($22.5M x 3)

Many here might feel Scott, Hoffman and Nick Martinez is asking for .500, again, but I think this might be just enough to get us to the playoffs with a chance to do more. Make a trade, like Abreu, DHam & Dobbins for Pablo Lopez, and I think we can say we are pretty close to the same level of any other AL team, before we see what they add.

[moonslav59]

With Pivetta, Jansen and Martin about to depart, our pitching staff got worse but much younger and cheaper. Those three cost $33M in 2024 ($31M on CBT.) That may not seem a like a huge number, but when you figure Gio at $19.25M did not even pitch in 2024, the rest of the 2024 pitching staff that actually pitched combined for a fraction of those 3's cost. (Hendriks and Fulmer did not pitch, either and Whitlock started just 4 games.)

Now, if we do little to replace their value, both in terms of their skill value and their financial cost, we will not see an improved staff. Gio, Hendriks, Fulmer plus more of Whitlock, does not seem nearly enough to cancel out the big 3 losses. In some ways, Pivetta has been our most dependable and productive SP'er since 2021. One major reason for that is that one year signings and young pitchers not in the rotation since 2021, but the fact is, he has been the closest thing to a dependable SP'er we've had in over 5 years. Jansen and Martin have been light years better than the next best RP'er in the last 5-6 seasons- easily. These losses CANNOT be taken lightly. One of my biggest fears is that the Sox upper brass has convinced themselves that Gio, Whitlock, Hendriks and Fulmer can come close to replacing what we lost. 

The way I see it, even if we assume they can come close, and we SHOULD NOT, we'd still just be back at status quo and a .500 team, at best. Even the very best teams look to improve their team on paper, every year. We need to double their efforts.

Before any additions, our pitching budget is very low (AAV listed) :

$19.25M x 1 Giolito

$9,2M x 5 Bello (w option for 2030)

$5M x 1 Hendriks

$4.7M x 2 Whitlock

1st ARB Year: Houck and Crawford

(Only Wink is arb eligible for 2026.)

There is no excuse for not spending on pitching. When you see what we paid for Jansen plus Martin, paying for Tanner Scott should be very reasonable. (The Athletic projects $

[moonslav59]

This post is not meant to support any opinion that our pitching staff does not need some major additions, this winter.  IT DOES and in a BAD WAY!

The one area where I think we can be a plus, is with ML depth, assuming we add 3-4 quality pitchers and move others down in the depth chart to places where they can be a plus and not a big question mark.

Rotation: Houck enters the first of 3 arb seasons. One could view him as a reason why now is the start of a 3 year window that could go longer. Bello is signed for 5 more years with a team option 6th year. Crawford is year one arb, like Houck, but he has 4 arb years. That's a pretty decent core 3, but none are sure aces, and 2 could be viewed as 4/5 types. Gio has one year left, but his salary should make replacing him, seemless or even easy to upgrade. Criswell might have been a flash, but offers nice looking depth. Fitts, Priester and Dobbins should be able to provide nice depth, even if just 1-2 come through. To me, we need a #1 or two solid #2/3 types.

Long Relief (perhaps spot starters): Those who don't start from the above group could fill this role, like Criswell, Fitts, Priester, Dobbins or even Crawford or Bello, if we add a starter or two, of someone like Fitts replaces of of the expected 5 starters, Of course, an injury is almost certain, so we should not plan on any of these guys as pen depth. That leaves Whitlock (2 years signed.) He could really thrive in this role or a short relief, high leverage role. Winckowski can also be a decent long man. I think we need to assume Mata is gone, since he is out of options.

Short Relief: Whitlock, Slaten and Hendriks could all be fighting for the closer and top set-up slots on the 2025 roster, but I feel we need to fill the closer slot with a roster addition. These three would all be decent set-up men, and if we could use Whitlock for 2-3 inning relief situations and Hendriks & Slaten as the top 2 set-up men, our pen could be a plus. Add two quality pen arms, like Scott & Hoffman, and our pen could be a clear plus. Closer: Scott. Set-up: Hoffman, Hendriks & Slaten. Long man/high leverage: Whitlock and maybe Wink. That's a pretty solid 5-6 pen core.

Relief Depth: Here is where we really gain by adding 2 RP'ers and 1-2 SP'ers. The pitchers we have, all get pushed down 1-4 slots, where their roles fit better to their skill levels. Houck becomes a #2 not a #1, and so on... More importantly, a SP'er or two gets pushed to SP'er depth or the pen gets lengthened, and our current closer becomes our set up guy, and so on. We could have a very long list, and our AAA pen could look a lot like our 2024 ML pen. If 6-7 of our pen is filled with pitchers mentioned above, including 3-4 outside additions, we can choose 1-2 from this list to fill the 7 and or 8 slot in the pen. The rest are minor league depth:

Fulmer, Bernardino, Weissert, I Campbell, Booser

Kelly, Guerrero, Penrod, Shugart

(SP depth used in the pen: Criswell, Fitts, Priester, Dobbins)

This looks like decent SP and RP depth, even if 2 guys are on the IL.

[Randy Red Sox]

3 hours ago, notin said:

There was an obvious joke in there about you also discriminating against women in MLB. (There are no women in MLB.)

However in all seriousness, the Sox need not focus on the age of any starting pitcher.  They have numer Young, cheap pitchers already and may not be better off with another arm ready for arbitration increases at the same time.  The way this team has been lately, that might force team to make unpopular choices…

just how did my post discriminate against women ??

[moonslav59]

33 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

just how did my post discriminate against women ??

He was saying his post was a joke about discriminating against women, since there are none in MLB.

[moonslav59]

Wacha signs with KCR for $51M/3 (almost what the Athletic projected.) There are a few incentives.

One less SP'er for the Sox to pursue.

[Larry Cook]

20 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Wacha signs with KCR for $51M/3 (almost what the Athletic projected.) There are a few incentives.

One less SP'er for the Sox to pursue.

Thank you Kansas City!!! 

[Bellhorn04]

Wacha is the Rodney Dangerfield of baseball.

[Duran Is The Man]

3 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Wacha is the Rodney Dangerfield of baseball.

yeah....the Sox were paying Paxton nearly the same money to rehab in '22 and could have kept him for '23, but went with Kluber instead. the Sox FO is f***ing nuts.

[mvp 78]

19 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

yeah....the Sox were paying Paxton nearly the same money to rehab in '22 and could have kept him for '23, but went with Kluber instead. the Sox FO is f***ing nuts.

Nobody can ever say that Bloom knew how to build a pitching staff. 

[notin]

3 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Wacha is the Rodney Dangerfield of baseball.

Except that Dangerfield is a Hall of Famer…