A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

That scenario, that Ohtani was helping his friend until he found out the consequences, probably makes the most sense.  Needless to say that doesn't reflect well on Ohtani either.  Didn't seem to hurt his game much, that's for sure.

I don't think this presented scenario makes more sense than it being Ohtani that was doing the gambling.

[Bellhorn04]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I don't think this presented scenario makes more sense than it being Ohtani that was doing the gambling.

Understood.  I just don't see how if it was Ohtani they couldn't find out it was Ohtani.  And that leads to the massive coverup theory.

[mvp 78]

18 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I don't think this presented scenario makes more sense than it being Ohtani that was doing the gambling.

If Ohtani was doing the gambling, why would the interpreter take the fall for him? It makes no sense. Occam's razor would state that the poorer guy was stealing from the richer guy because he had access to all his funds and trying to live a lavish lifestyle to keep up with everyone around him. 

[Bellhorn04]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If Ohtani was doing the gambling, why would the interpreter take the fall for him? It makes no sense. 

It only makes sense if you think Ohtani and his people are basically the Mafia, and they told the interpreter his choices were to be killed or to go to jail and be looked after for it. 

[moonslav59]

29 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Understood.  I just don't see how if it was Ohtani they couldn't find out it was Ohtani.  And that leads to the massive coverup theory.

Massive? In what way?

Couldn't Ohtani have simply paid the guy to take the fall for him?

Nobody else need be involved.

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

It only makes sense if you think Ohtani and his people are basically the Mafia, and they told the interpreter his choices were to be killed or to go to jail and be looked after for it. 

Money talks as much as mafia type threats.

[mvp 78]

12 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

It only makes sense if you think Ohtani and his people are basically the Mafia, and they told the interpreter his choices were to be killed or to go to jail and be looked after for it. 

Then we'd have to believe that Ohtani is some criminal mastermind who would go from getting in trouble to betting on baseball and ramping it up to straight up murdering someone. 

concrete shoes

neckties

high voltage

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Massive? In what way?

Couldn't Ohtani have simply paid the guy to take the fall for him?

Nobody else need be involved.

How much would it take for you to go to jail for decades? It also then just takes one guy shiving him in the shower for him to not get paid. Easy pass. 

You could make enough money signing a book deal on the situation after ratting Ohtani out.

[Hugh2]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

That scenario, that Ohtani was helping his friend until he found out the consequences, probably makes the most sense.  Needless to say that doesn't reflect well on Ohtani either.  Didn't seem to hurt his game much, that's for sure.

I suppose it's all a matter of perspective, I'm not sure helping a friend make someone a bad guy.  Especially if he truly didn't know the legality of the matter.  In his mind, his friend did something that didn't hurt anyone other than himself financially and he wanted to help him.  Morally, that doesn't make him a bad person, in my eyes.  Maybe it makes him look bad because he didn't know when he should have? I think it's all trivial. 

[harmony]

22 hours ago, notin said:

Why are we assuming what he knows?  Or whether or not he thinks he is above the law here?  Or knows the law at all?  
 

He should be familiar with MLB rules regarding gambling; every clubhouse in MLB has signs warning players of the consequences.  But others have ignored those signs before him.   Just last year, Pirates shortstop Tupucita Marcano was banned from MLB for gambling…

MLB even bars minimum-wage service employees of minor league teams from playing fantasy baseball.

The right to remain silent is invoked.😀

[Bellhorn04]

Just now, Hugh2 said:

I suppose it's all a matter of perspective, I'm not sure helping a friend make someone a bad guy.  Especially if he truly didn't know the legality of the matter.  In his mind, his friend did something that didn't hurt anyone other than himself financially and he wanted to help him.  Morally, that doesn't make him a bad person, in my eyes.  Maybe it makes him look bad because he didn't know when he should have? I think it's all trivial. 

Hugh, I'm talking about the part where Ohtani changed his story and said his friend was lying and stole millions from him.

[Bellhorn04]

19 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Massive? In what way?

Couldn't Ohtani have simply paid the guy to take the fall for him?

Nobody else need be involved.

OK, but they did supposedly do some investigating of cell phones and so on and couldn't find any incriminating communications between Ohtani and the interpreter. 

I guess you're assuming Ohtani somehow brilliantly covered all his tracks. 

How would he have paid the interpreter off, in your theory?

 

[Hugh2]

1 minute ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Hugh, I'm talking about the part where Ohtani changed his story and said his friend was lying and stole millions from him.

Yeah, because he realized that covering for his friend implicating him to doing something really bad that was going to get him in a lot of trouble. 

If I was going out of my way to help a friend in need, especially someone struggling with an addiction and I found out what I was doing to help him was illegal, I'd back out as well.

I think that's what we need to know here.  Was Ohtani giving him money before hand to help him with his problem, inadvertently breaking the rules? (I don't think he with intent was gambling with his own money) or did his interpreter legit steal from him?

The problem is the story changed, which is suspicious, but I don't think it's malicious.  Is there still an investigation going on into this????

[Bellhorn04]

4 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Yeah, because he realized that covering for his friend implicating him to doing something really bad that was going to get him in a lot of trouble. 

If I was going out of my way to help a friend in need, especially someone struggling with an addiction and I found out what I was doing to help him was illegal, I'd back out as well.

I think that's what we need to know here.  Was Ohtani giving him money before hand to help him with his problem, inadvertently breaking the rules? (I don't think he with intent was gambling with his own money) or did his interpreter legit steal from him?

The problem is the story changed, which is suspicious, but I don't think it's malicious.  Is there still an investigation going on into this????

Investigations are closed.  It would take some new evidence coming out for anything further to happen.

[moonslav59]

30 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

OK, but they did supposedly do some investigating of cell phones and so on and couldn't find any incriminating communications between Ohtani and the interpreter. 

I guess you're assuming Ohtani somehow brilliantly covered all his tracks. 

How would he have paid the interpreter off, in your theory?

 

Is cell phones the only way to communicate? (there are also "burner phones."

I'm not saying this happened, but it has to be as plausible as the other scenarion.

As for how qa payoff could be done and hidden, I think there are many ways to do that. Or a promise that "we will take care of your family."

 

[Bellhorn04]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Is cell phones the only way to communicate? (there are also "burner phones."

I'm not saying this happened, but it has to be as plausible as the other scenarion.

As for how qa payoff could be done and hidden, I think there are many ways to do that. Or a promise that "we will take care of your family."

 

If they were using burner phones it indicates this was some sort of premeditated scheme.

If Ohtani is smart enough to hide a payoff to the interpreter, why is he also stupid enough to make a long series of readily visible bank transfers to an illegal betting operation?

That's the real problem - you're saying he was incredibly stupid in some ways and incredibly smart in others.   

[moonslav59]

Just now, Bellhorn04 said:

If they were using burner phones it indicates this was some sort of premeditated scheme.

If Ohtani is smart enough to hide a payoff to the interpreter, why is he also stupid enough to make a long series of readily visible bank transfers to an illegal betting operation?

That's the real problem - you're saying he was incredibly stupid in some ways and incredibly smart in others.   

If he was gambling himself, it is totally understandable he'd set up a way to do it that was not easily traceable. It need not have been some complicated scheme or deep conspiracy set-up.

I really have no idea what went down, but it seems absurd to think his interpreter was taking all this money, without it being discovered. That seems as "nutty" as my suggested scheme to hide who was making the bets. Both scenarios have major questions and WTF's.

[mvp 78]

18 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Is cell phones the only way to communicate? (there are also "burner phones."

I'm not saying this happened, but it has to be as plausible as the other scenarion.

As for how qa payoff could be done and hidden, I think there are many ways to do that. Or a promise that "we will take care of your family."

 

What if they were communicating via styrofoam cups and string??!?!?!??!

[moonslav59]

22 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

What if they were communicating via styrofoam cups and string??!?!?!??!

Very effective but not too secretive.

[Bellhorn04]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Very effective but not too secretive.

Unless you get the burner cups.  

More likely it was a Cone of Silence setup.

😀

[Bellhorn04]

Since we have gone off madly on this Ohtani tangent, thanks to notin's harmless little joke, I will add this:

Gambling problems that come to light are usually not new problems, and they are almost never short-lived ones.  If Ohtani had a problem, he has a problem.

 

[moonslav59]

23 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Unless you get the burner cups.  

More likely it was a Cone of Silence setup.

😀

Good one!

[mvp 78]

18 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Since we have gone off madly on this Ohtani tangent, thanks to notin's harmless little joke, I will add this:

Gambling problems that come to light are usually not new problems, and they are almost never short-lived ones.  If Ohtani had a problem, he has a problem.

 

MLB deserves this considering how quickly they jumped into online gambling and how it's plastered everywhere now. 

[moonslav59]

Let's get back to the 2025 Red Sox outlook.

To me, so much depends on 2 things that have nothing to do with player performance projections:

1. JH's willingness to up the winter spending budget.

2. Brez's willingness or authority to trade top players or prospects that focus more on 2025-2026 than 2027 and beyond. (It could be for a player with 4+ years of control, but trading multiple players with 5+ years of control for one at 4 is still more about the here and now.)

One of my main concerns is how much confidence is this management team going to put into players that missed all or most of 2024, as being key players for 2025.

Story

Gio

Whitlock

Hendriks

Fulmer

and to a much lesser extent Murphy, I Campbell & others.

Plus, maybe full seasons (or full days of availability) from Devers, Slaten, Criswell, Fitts, Grissom, Priester, Guerrero & Penrod

Of course, we need to plan for injuries, but there is a lot of possible additional playing time coming from this list, and we already have a core of players that can be expected to be FT players or near that.

Abreu+ Ref counts as 1 (or Yoshida + Ref at DH) Maybe together this is 2 slots filled.

Casas (1B) Duran (LF-CF) Devers (3B) and maybe Wong (C) and Rafaela (CF) would fill 6 slots. Story/Mayer + DHam/Grissom should fill 7 more.

Houck, Crawford, Bello & Gio can maybe be counted as 4 rotation slots filler with Fitts/Priester/Criswell/Dobbins combining to fill the 5th slot. The pen is too mixed up to know what is what, but we do seem to have 4-5 arms that are reliable for slots in the 8 man pen.

[notin]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Very effective but not too secretive.

It’s not hard to communicate secretly.

 

One method that used to be widely used was to leave emails in draft form.  The “recipient” logs in to the same account, reads and erases/deletes the drafts, and maybe drafts a reply.

Not something easy to find.   It was how the 9-11 terrorists reportedly communicated…

[Hugh2]

Another interesting story line is HOW THEY SPEND their money. 

Even if we could assume the same old same old song and dance, then knowing they won't spend big we still know they're going to spend in such a manner that brings them close to the luxury tax limit but most likely won't go over. 

THat's still roughly (give or take) about 70 million of AAV they will add to next years roster.  With the position side mostly locked up, how can they NOT spend this money on pitching?

Literally, they don't have much else to do.  You could say they trade for a guy and THEN lock that guy up adding 25-40 per.  That would be a nice slice of the pie, but still plenty of pie to go around.  

Perhaps they split the difference

[Deja Doh]

On 10/20/2024 at 6:22 AM, notin said:

Almost all positions? They missed the postseason by 5 games…

We might as well have been the White Sox.  

[Larry Cook]

I think our days of being a big spender are over. The farm system will continue to churn out 2 - 3 prospects per year and only the absolute best will get the QO.  
we are the waiver wire kings for now on 

[moonslav59]

12 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

I think our days of being a big spender are over. The farm system will continue to churn out 2 - 3 prospects per year and only the absolute best will get the QO.  
we are the waiver wire kings for now on 

Certainly, we may never spend like 2018-2019, again. We may never get to top 5, again... maybe even top 8-10, but how do we know, and what evidence supports this opinion?

Past trends reveal many ups and downs, and several "downs" have lasted 2 seasons, like this current trend. Our budget went up almost 30% from 2020 to 2022, which is the second highest jump in budget spending under JH in any 2 year period. Granted, the context needs to be mentioned: that jump came on the heels of the largest slash to the budget in decades, perhaps since the Ruth sale to the Yanks.

You seem to be basing your opinion on a year trend, downwards, plus the massive cut from 2019 to 2020. Those two events are recent and close enough together to lump into one giant downward trend, but there was a significantly large, two year upward trend mixed in, there. I'm not sure if you are just ignoring that or discounting it as a minimal investment to keep the hounds at bay. We did see a little reward for some of that spending in 2021, namely the $14M spent on Kike, but we did spend.

We were still #3 in spending in 2021, and a chunk of that was new spending- not just old and bloated contracts. We went from $180M in 2021 to $195M in 2022, but dropped from 3rd to 6th in rankings, according to Steve the Ump. To me, that season was more about other team's jumping spending by huge amounts, than anything bad JH did, since he increased the budget by about 8%, that winter.  That winter was also one of the best signings winter we had, since DD, but it did not translate into wins. (Wacha, Strahm, Hill... were better than the Richards and Kluber winters.)

Again, I'm not defending JH or projecting big or even bigger spending, going forward. I have no idea where the budget will go, and projecting budget rankings is even more complex, but I am not understanding why you seem to be so sure JH will never spend big, again.

[Bellhorn04]

No one is sure of anything with Henry and the payroll any more. 

I have shifted to a pessimistic outlook, but maybe that's just because I got sick of the optimistic outlook being squashed.