A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

10 minutes ago, notin said:

Why?  Are the Sox moving next season?

Or does this mean maybe or pitching is pretty good after all?

Close, Sherlock, it does in fact mean the hitting isn't as good as the raw numbers, and the pitching is better than the raw numbers.  😜

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, Old Red said:

Now? Your point trying to be that Sale was coming off an injury last year. He wasn’t.

notin is off and running this morning!

[Old Red]

4 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

notin is off and running this morning!

In the wrong direction.🤭🙈

[notin]

8 hours ago, win red sox said:

One of the easiest ways to upgrade the pitching would be to sign a catcher that can actually catch.  Carson Kelly on a 3 year deal would be ideal, solid defense  and hits lhp.  Another option could be D'arnaud on a 1 year deal.  I don't think alot people understand how bad Wong is at catching specifically at framing and blocking.

Danny Jansen is an outstanding blocking catcher as well..

[Bellhorn04]

8 hours ago, win red sox said:

One of the easiest ways to upgrade the pitching would be to sign a catcher that can actually catch.  Carson Kelly on a 3 year deal would be ideal, solid defense  and hits lhp.  Another option could be D'arnaud on a 1 year deal.  I don't think alot people understand how bad Wong is at catching specifically at framing and blocking.

I can't personally confirm how bad Wong is because I don't watch enough game action, but there is definitely a growing consensus that his defense is a huge problem.

[notin]

13 minutes ago, Old Red said:

In the wrong direction.🤭🙈

Right.

All season while Sale was cruising through NL lineups, there was all of this “but past injuries blah blah blah” and “you don’t trade pitching when you need pitching” (despite Sale’s frequent absences being the number one reason the Sox needing pitching).  But now after not counting on a pitcher coming back from injury being the wrong thing, apparently counting on one coming back is, too.

 

Hey, you set yourself up for another year of complaining, which was your goal.  Please take it to SAWXHEADS…

[notin]

32 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Now? Your point trying to be that Sale was coming off an injury last year. He wasn’t.

He pitched 3 innings between May 26and August 11.  Was that PTO?

[Old Red]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

Right.

All season while Sale was cruising through NL lineups, there was all of this “but past injuries blah blah blah” and “you don’t trade pitching when you need pitching” (despite Sale’s frequent absences being the number one reason the Sox needing pitching).  But now after not counting on a pitcher coming back from injury being the wrong thing, apparently counting on one coming back is, too.

 

Hey, you set yourself up for another year of complaining, which was your goal.  Please take it to SAWXHEADS…

Wrong as usual. Sale wasn’t coming off an injury last year. How many pitches are the Sox counting on that are? Not coming off an injury, and coming off an injury are Two Completely Different things. Most people can see the difference. NNN.

[notin]

2 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Wrong as usual. Sale wasn’t coming off an injury last year. How many pitches are the Sox counting on that are? Not coming off an injury, and coming off an injury are Two Completely Different things. Most people can see the difference. NNN.

Again.  3 innng between May 26 and August 11.   Injured shoulder.  Clearly injured in 2023, and just because he was on the active roster on the last day of the year doesn’t change that.

On the heels of pitching only 50 IP total the 3 previous years, this was a concern.  And it should have been one.

 

[Bellhorn04]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

Again.  3 innng between May 26 and August 11.   Injured shoulder.  Clearly injured in 2023, and just because he was on the active roster on the last day of the year doesn’t change that.

On the heels of pitching only 50 IP total the 3 previous years, this was a concern.  And it should have been one.

 

OK, but maybe there is a touch of irony in the Sox dispatching Sale due to injury/age concerns and then signing Hendriks...

[notin]

41 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Close, Sherlock, it does in fact mean the hitting isn't as good as the raw numbers, and the pitching is better than the raw numbers.  😜

I’ve been saying that about the pitching all season. But I’m always in favor of better pitching.  If I was coaching the Braves in the mid 1990’s, I’d be thinking “Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz are all fine.  But when can we add Randy Johnson?”

[harmony]

13 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

this is not true. Harmony already said that our need for pitchers is overblown.

To be precise: The narrative that the Red Sox need pitching and the Mariner need hitting is overblown.

The context was lost in your cherry-picked response.

[notin]

29 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

OK, but maybe there is a touch of irony in the Sox dispatching Sale due to injury/age concerns and then signing Hendriks...

Not all injured mid-30s pitchers are the same.  Hendriks pitches in a role that requires less durability yet still managed three times as many IP as Sale from 2020-2022.  Also, coming off the first TJ has historically been fairly clean for most pitchers, for at least the first 3 years.

I know fans get disgruntled with these injury contract reclaimation projects.  But they’re not always a bad thing, and they’re certainly not new for Boston.  (Lou Gorman had an outstanding track record with them, and even the original DD - Dan Duquette- had successes.)

[Bellhorn04]

22 minutes ago, notin said:

Not all injured mid-30s pitchers are the same.  Hendriks pitches in a role that requires less durability yet still managed three times as many IP as Sale from 2020-2022.  Also, coming off the first TJ has historically been fairly clean for most pitchers, for at least the first 3 years.

I know fans get disgruntled with these injury contract reclaimation projects.  But they’re not always a bad thing, and they’re certainly not new for Boston.  (Lou Gorman had an outstanding track record with them, and even the original DD - Dan Duquette- had successes.)

I firmly believe a day will come when you actually grow tired of recapitulating Sale's innings pitched from recent years, but I sense that day may be a ways off yet.  😁 

[notin]

43 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I firmly believe a day will come when you actually grow tired of recapitulating Sale's innings pitched from recent years, but I sense that day may be a ways off yet.  😁 

Yes it’s an obvious fact that many choose to suddenly ignore because hindsight showed that against all odds and every historical precedent, trying to learn something from it didn’t work out as planned…

[Bellhorn04]

9 minutes ago, notin said:

Yes it’s an obvious fact that many choose to suddenly ignore because hindsight showed that against all odds and every historical precedent, trying to learn something from it didn’t work out as planned…

It was dumb.  Sale's innings were clearly trending back upward.  You can see that on a graph.  😄

[notin]

8 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

It was dumb.  Sale's innings were clearly trending back upward.  You can see that on a graph.  😄

First, pleasetell me this isn’t the graph of the years 2020 through 2023 on one axis and his IP on the other.  Talk about an oversimplification of a small sample size.

Second, even that last total of 100 IP was interrupted by a shoulder injury and a trip to the 60 day IL.  If he instead ended the year with an uninterrupted 100 IP stretch, that’s different.

Or if it was interrupted by getting hit by the comebacker or by the bike accident, that’s also different.  But it was a pitching injury.  After 60 IP.  His longest injury-free stretch in 4 seasons…

 

 

[moonslav59]

10 hours ago, win red sox said:

One of the easiest ways to upgrade the pitching would be to sign a catcher that can actually catch.  Carson Kelly on a 3 year deal would be ideal, solid defense  and hits lhp.  Another option could be D'arnaud on a 1 year deal.  I don't think alot people understand how bad Wong is at catching specifically at framing and blocking.

Wong was the worst defensive catchers in MLB, last year, according to many metrics.

Certainly, that is an area of need. Teel is supposed to be good on defense, so I'm thinking a 1 year deal for a " bridge" makes more sense. Wong could make a nice back-up catcher, PH'er and emergency 2B/1B sub. He's also a RHB, while Teel bats lefty and has yet to prove he a plus on offense.

I know there is a lot of "ifs," but we can make great strides on infield defense with just a somewhat minimal addition of a 1 year catcher:

C: D'arnaud or Jansen & Wong

1B: Casas & Devers, when not DH'ing

2B: Campbell, Mayer, DHam-Grissom

SS: Story & Mayer (Romy)

3B: Mayer/Campbell or Grissom (Meidroth)

This defense is light year's better than 2024"s

C: Wong and McGuire/Jansen

1B: Smith & Casas (Dalbec, Romy, Cooper & Wong 60-95 innings, each)

2B: E Valdez had the most innings (YUK!) DHam & Grissom (245+) and Romy, Westbrook & Sogard 100+. (Gasper, Reyes and Rafaela 30+)

SS: Rafaela 647, DHam 433 (Double YUK!) Story 228, Romy 80, Sogard 51

3B: Devers 1138 was more innings at one position than anyone else, except Abreu in RF, and he sucked. (55+ from Romy, Reyes, Dalbec & Sogard)

LF: 611 Duran, 498 O'Neill & 297 Ref (room to improve, here) 

CF: 810 Duran, 631 Rafaela (Can't get much better.)

RF: 1421 Abreu (a plus) 301 O'Neill & 198 Ref (could get better with Anthony instead.)

So, improve D at C, SS, 3B, 2B, LF, RF and maybe a little at 1B, 2B and CF. The same or better at every position with just one addition and a couple position shifts: Devers to 1B/DH/ Casas to 1/2 DH and Rafaela out of the infield.

[Bellhorn04]

12 minutes ago, notin said:

First, pleasetell me this isn’t the graph of the years 2020 through 2023 on one axis and his IP on the other.  Talk about an oversimplification of a small sample size.

Why do you take everything so literally and seriously when you're a joker yourself?

[Old Red]

2 hours ago, notin said:

Again.  3 innng between May 26 and August 11.   Injured shoulder.  Clearly injured in 2023, and just because he was on the active roster on the last day of the year doesn’t change that.

On the heels of pitching only 50 IP total the 3 previous years, this was a concern.  And it should have been one.

 

Obviously the Braves liked what they saw of Sale in 2023. I said when Sale got traded to the Braves that i thought Sale would stay healthy this year, and have a good year for the Braves. How was that for a thought-opinion-suggestion-prediction, or whatever else you want to call it? At any rate it was right, and the Braves were right too. You’ve gone on, and on, and on all year long about Sale, and all Sale did during that time was win a Cy Young. Chris Cy Young Sale. Property of the Atlanta Braves, and paid for by the Boston Red Sox, and all for the low, low price of $17M. Like I’ve said before that Brez couldn’t have gotten this thing anymore wrong if he’d tried, and don’t forget to add Gio in too.

[notin]

29 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Why do you take everything so literally and seriously when you're a joker yourself?

I can admit that weakness…

[notin]

23 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Obviously the Braves liked what they saw of Sale in 2023. I said when Sale got traded to the Braves that i thought Sale would stay healthy this year, and have a good year for the Braves. How was that for a thought-opinion-suggestion-prediction, or whatever else you want to call it? At any rate it was right, and the Braves were right too. You’ve gone on, and on, and on all year long about Sale, and all Sale did during that time was win a Cy Young. Chris Cy Young Sale. Property of the Atlanta Braves, and paid for by the Boston Red Sox, and all for the low, low price of $17M. Like I’ve said before that Brez couldn’t have gotten this thing anymore wrong if he’d tried, and don’t forget to add Gio in too.

Yes, you’re a prophet who clearly thought Sale was cured and didn’t say so out of sarcastic spite.  So naturally when giving up a fully cured Sale, your first reaction was “but why pay money?”  
 

No one disputes how it unfolded.  The only dispute is the logic beforehand.  No one gives Boston a good grade here.  But that doesn’t mean in December of 2023 that Sale was a reliable pitching option for the upcoming season.  Even Atlanta knew that.  Heck one can argue even Sale didn’t expect those results.

But the point here is, if you were so heavily in favor of keeping oft-injured Sale around, why are you down on other pitchers coming off injury?

[Old Red]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

Yes, you’re a prophet who clearly thought Sale was cured and didn’t say so out of sarcastic spite.  So naturally when giving up a fully cured Sale, your first reaction was “but why pay money?”  
 

No one disputes how it unfolded.  The only dispute is the logic beforehand.  No one gives Boston a good grade here.  But that doesn’t mean in December of 2023 that Sale was a reliable pitching option for the upcoming season.  Even Atlanta knew that.  Heck one can argue even Sale didn’t expect those results…

We’ll leave the logic before hand to you, but the only thing that really counts is the final results.

[notin]

11 minutes ago, Old Red said:

We’ll leave the logic before hand to you, but the only thing that really counts is the final results.

To some, yes.  But not to everyone…

[moonslav59]

14 minutes ago, notin said:

Yes, you’re a prophet who clearly thought Sale was cured and didn’t say so out of sarcastic spite.  So naturally when giving up a fully cured Sale, your first reaction was “but why pay money?”  
 

No one disputes how it unfolded.  The only dispute is the logic beforehand.  No one gives Boston a good grade here.  But that doesn’t mean in December of 2023 that Sale was a reliable pitching option for the upcoming season.  Even Atlanta knew that.  Heck one can argue even Sale didn’t expect those results.

But the point here is, if you were so heavily in favor of keeping oft-injured Sale around, why are you down on other pitchers coming off injury?

Red was not against the trade, itself. It was the paying too much money part. Had we not paid a penny, he'd have liked the deal and still found some other way to twist it into him being right.

There was logic in keeping every pitcher with promise we could.

There was logic in cutting our losses and trying to fix a second base problem we had for 5-6 years.

We swung and missed, wildly, and then swung and missed on Gio to make matters worse.

[Old Red]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Red was not against the trade, itself. It was the paying too much money part. Had we not paid a penny, he'd have liked the deal and still found some other way to twist it into him being right.

There was logic in keeping every pitcher with promise we could.

There was logic in cutting our losses and trying to fix a second base problem we had for 5-6 years.

We swung and missed, wildly, and then swung and missed on Gio to make matters worse.

To saying I thought Sale would be healthy this year, and have a good year for the Braves is NOT twisting Anything. That thought had Nothing to do with if I liked the trade, or not. It turned out to be right, and that’s a fact. To bad you can’t get anything right.

[harmony]

12 hours ago, win red sox said:

One of the easiest ways to upgrade the pitching would be to sign a catcher that can actually catch.  Carson Kelly on a 3 year deal would be ideal, solid defense  and hits lhp.  Another option could be D'arnaud on a 1 year deal.  I don't think alot people understand how bad Wong is at catching specifically at framing and blocking.

Some attribute the success of the Seattle pitching staff to the receiving skills of catcher Cal Raleigh.

[notin]

5 minutes ago, harmony said:

Some attribute the success of the Seattle pitching staff to the receiving skills of catcher Cal Raleigh.

That seals it.  No Seattle pitchers.

[notin]

8 minutes ago, harmony said:

…..

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

That seals it.  No Seattle pitchers.

The park helps the numbers, too, but some of these guys are pretty good on the road, too.

To me, our best bet at getting a SEA pitcher is Castillo, due to his contract and age. His contract was also back-end loaded, to some extent. His AAV is $21.6 x 3 more years, but his pay is $24.2M x 3. There is also a team option, if there is an injury:

 

• 28:$25M vesting option and 2028 conditional option: Seattle receives a $5M club option for 2028 if Castillo is on the Injured List in 2025-27 for more than 130 consecutive days due to Tommy John surgery or an operation stemming from damage to the ligament