A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[Hugh2]

45 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Whitlock said in an interview with TC during ST last year that he wanted to be a Swiss Army knife. That doesn’t sound like wanting to start to me.

Techinically if the Sox went over the luxury tax limit this year they would be in the same boat they've been in for over a decade, rather than resetting for one year, it would have been two.  

Realistically, they're one  year removed from the norm.  But it's the rhetoric coming out of the front office that is very worrisome.  They don't sound sincere, or terribly interested in increasing payroll

[Old Red]

8 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Techinically if the Sox went over the luxury tax limit this year they would be in the same boat they've been in for over a decade, rather than resetting for one year, it would have been two.  

Realistically, they're one  year removed from the norm.  But it's the rhetoric coming out of the front office that is very worrisome.  They don't sound sincere, or terribly interested in increasing payroll

Agree, and I think anything more than just replacing the contracts coming off the books, like Sale, Martin, and Jansen plus a few others would be doing something to them.

[Hugh2]

41 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Agree, and I think anything more than just replacing the contracts coming off the books, like Sale, Martin, and Jansen plus a few others would be doing something to them.

Well, if they did just that, depending on how they did that they might just be fine. 

If they added three guys, and I get there are varying opinions between what the Sox should do, could do and will do but bare with me.  Lets say the three are Corbin Burnes, Tanner Scott, and Danny Jensen.  I think that makes next years team tremendously better. 

I'd still want another arm in that group though. 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I think all I did was point out that a number of teams had clearly abandoned the mantra of re-setting every third year.  

Only 5 teams have gone over in '22 and '23: NYY, LAD, PHI, NYM & SDP.

PHI & LAD did in 2021, but that was before the new agreement, so I'm not sure that counts as 3 straight.

Projected over for 2024: NYM, LAD, NYY, PHI, so 4 teams are looking at 3 straight. (SDP reset.) ATL, HOU, TOR and TEX will be over in 2024. (ATL, TOR & TEX were over in '23 but not '22, so they are at 2 years and HOU first year.)

[notin]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I think all I did was point out that a number of teams had clearly abandoned the mantra of re-setting every third year.  

I was going back further, back when resetting was relevant in Boston.  And possibly someone else said it, hence my uncertainty.  But regardless of the origin, it was a wish that was granted.  Yeah, that worked out as hoped…

Edited October 9, 2024 by notin

[Bellhorn04]

14 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Only 5 teams have gone over in '22 and '23: NYY, LAD, PHI, NYM & SDP.

PHI & LAD did in 2021, but that was before the new agreement, so I'm not sure that counts as 3 straight.

It definitely does count.

[Bellhorn04]

10 minutes ago, notin said:

I was going back further, back when resetting was relevant in Boston.  And possibly someone else said it, hence my uncertainty.  But regardless of the origin, it was a wish that was granted.  Yeah, that worked out as hoped…

The wish was to go over every year, not under every year...

[moonslav59]

From the 2024 Tax budget, we will be losing...

AAV

$17M Sale

$16M Jansen

$7.5M Martin

$7.5 Pivetta

$5.9 O'Neill

~$19M combine: $4.2M Turner opt-out, $2M Joely, $1.8 D Jansen, $1.5M McGuire & G Cooper,  $1.4 Paxton & L Garcia, $1.3 Chase Anderson, $1M D Smith, $0.95 Sims and others.

This totals to over $70M.

We have some arb raises, but not many and all 3 are ARB 1's (Duran, Houck & Crawford.)

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The wish was to go over every year, not under every year...

Had we gone over every 2 years out of 3, that would have been much better, too.

Also, going over the one year we had decent comp picks coming our way was dumb as hell, although we still ended up with K Campbell with one of them.

[notin]

6 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The wish was to go over every year, not under every year...

The wish I recall was to stop resetting.  And the originator presumably meant to just stay over.   It didn’t work out that way, which is sort the whole point about wishes.

As unpopular as Henry is, even his cheapness has him spending more than 2/3 of other owners.  It would be much easier to find someone even cheaper.  Sox fans need Henry to embrace his old mindset, not to step down…

[Old Red]

19 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Well, if they did just that, depending on how they did that they might just be fine. 

If they added three guys, and I get there are varying opinions between what the Sox should do, could do and will do but bare with me.  Lets say the three are Corbin Burnes, Tanner Scott, and Danny Jensen.  I think that makes next years team tremendously better. 

I'd still want another arm in that group though. 

I don’t see just replacing contracts ass adding. Now if Pivetta, Jansen, and Martin’s contracts wasn’t up , and they added 3 more pitchers that to me is adding, but just replacing those three aren’t. Trading Sale, and Signing  Gio was just swapping. We’ll just have to wait, and see what the Sox do.

[moonslav59]

Ideally, I'm sure Sox ownership would love it, if we could keep the farm stocked, so a continual infusion could be counted on. Then, we might be able to stay under or "just under," every year and stay highly competitive.

If this became the norm, then going over, for a year or two, now and then, would be acceptable, but never 3 years in a row.

The penalties, now, go beyond just financial, so keeping the farm strong can take a hit, when you get penalized.

I do see a way, if everything goes right or mostly right with our additions, and we don't get killed by injuries, we could build a competitive team, without going over the tax line in 2025. Going up to $2-3M from the line, would give us a hefty winter spending budget (AAV) and enough to fill 3-4 slots with quality players. (2-3 slots with high quality.) Plus, we could trade to fill 1-2 slots and have less players to divide the AAV budget into, thereby increasing the expected quality production.

[moonslav59]

It's not going to be easy to replace Jansen, and if they count Hendriks as an even swap, that will be a big risk. (Note: they probably do count it as just that.) Counting Fulmer as Martin's replacement would be even worse. Counting Gio as Pivetta's replacement is probably the closest to reality, but it is still a big gamble.

I think we'd need to add 3 high quality pitchers to improve the staff over 2023. That's not counting Hendriks, Fulmer and Gio. To me, this is the MINIMUM NEEDED!

A RHB, maybe at catcher will probably happen, and maybe we also try to add another Criswell or two, but I seriously doubt we add more than 3-4 quality players. (Trading Abreu for one is a push and is not "adding." IMO.)

[notin]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

It's not going to be easy to replace Jansen, and if they count Hendriks as an even swap, that will be a big risk. (Note: they probably do count it as just that.) Counting Fulmer as Martin's replacement would be even worse. Counting Gio as Pivetta's replacement is probably the closest to reality, but it is still a big gamble.

I think we'd need to add 3 high quality pitchers to improve the staff over 2023. That's not counting Hendriks, Fulmer and Gio. To me, this is the MINIMUM NEEDED!

A RHB, maybe at catcher will probably happen, and maybe we also try to add another Criswell or two, but I seriously doubt we add more than 3-4 quality players. (Trading Abreu for one is a push and is not "adding." IMO.)

Sign LHRP Tanner Scott

Sign RHP Nick Martinez

Trade two from Wikelman Gonzalez, Blaze Jordan and ERC to Washington for RHRP Kyle Finnegan

 

That work?

[Old Red]

Just now, notin said:

Sign LHRP Tanner Scott

Sign RHP Nick Martinez

Trade two from Wikelman Gonzalez, Blaze Jordan and ERC to Washington for RHRP Kyle Finnegan

 

That work?

Scott will have plenty of suitors, and if any of the big bidders are in the Red Sox have little to no chance. Outside of that it sounds good.

[Hugh2]

35 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I don’t see just replacing contracts ass adding. Now if Pivetta, Jansen, and Martin’s contracts wasn’t up , and they added 3 more pitchers that to me is adding, but just replacing those three aren’t. Trading Sale, and Signing  Gio was just swapping. We’ll just have to wait, and see what the Sox do.

You're adding a guy who is going to be the top pitcher in free agency and one of the top pitchers in baseball, then you're adding the #1 relief pitcher in FA and one of the best in baseball.

Obviously the odds of Henry doing that are very unlikley, but something like that.......wouldn't be a sideways move.  If the Sox need more than that, then it ain't happening.  I'm not sure anyteam has ever had an offseason much bigger than that. 

Also, we aren't replacing Sale from this year but last.  Sox starting pitchers were 7th in all of baseball in ERA.  Adding a true ACE makes their rotation set.  Adding one of the games top closers, and moving Whitlock to the bullpen is pretty darn good start. 

[Bellhorn04]

50 minutes ago, notin said:

As unpopular as Henry is, even his cheapness has him spending more than 2/3 of other owners.

True, but the issue is that the Sox are #3 in revenue and franchise value.  Prior to the last couple of years they spent in proportion to their wealth, and nobody really complained too loudly.

[moonslav59]

54 minutes ago, notin said:

Sign LHRP Tanner Scott

Sign RHP Nick Martinez

Trade two from Wikelman Gonzalez, Blaze Jordan and ERC to Washington for RHRP Kyle Finnegan

 

That work?

I'd say bare minimum. Do you consider Flaherty as better than NM?

Could getting Fairbanks be better than Finnegan, as well as a larger package needed.

[notin]

14 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'd say bare minimum. Do you consider Flaherty as better than NM?

Could getting Fairbanks be better than Finnegan, as well as a larger package needed.

I do not.  Flaherty was worth 3.1 bWAR last year, but it was the first time he’s topped 1.0 bWAR since 2019.  Martinez was worth 4.0 bWAR last year, and has topped 1.0 bWAR every year since returning from Japan.

 

Fairbanks is fairly equal to Finnegan.  Both hover around 1.0 bWAR for each of the past 3 seasons…

[Old Red]

41 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

You're adding a guy who is going to be the top pitcher in free agency and one of the top pitchers in baseball, then you're adding the #1 relief pitcher in FA and one of the best in baseball.

Obviously the odds of Henry doing that are very unlikley, but something like that.......wouldn't be a sideways move.  If the Sox need more than that, then it ain't happening.  I'm not sure anyteam has ever had an offseason much bigger than that. 

Also, we aren't replacing Sale from this year but last.  Sox starting pitchers were 7th in all of baseball in ERA.  Adding a true ACE makes their rotation set.  Adding one of the games top closers, and moving Whitlock to the bullpen is pretty darn good start. 

If they added the pitches you mentioned I understand, but I just don’t see the Red Sox adding any top guys for the rotation, or the BP through FA. Those will be highly sought after, and I don’t the Red Sox outbidding many teams. I’m not counting on all of Bello, Kut Man, and Houck all staying healthy,  and making 30 starts either.

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

I do not.  Flaherty was worth 3.1 bWAR last year, but it was the first time he’s topped 1.0 bWAR since 2019.  Martinez was worth 4.0 bWAR last year, and has topped 1.0 bWAR every year since returning from Japan.

 

Fairbanks is fairly equal to Finnegan.  Both hover around 1.0 bWAR for each of the past 3 seasons…

I like the high K rate for Fairbanks and see him as a possible closer.

I think you talked me into Nick Martinez over Flaherty.

Ideally, it would be Martinez, Tanner Scott, Fairbanks and Finnegan. I think we could get the two "F's" wihtout losing a major piece to 2024, other than maybe Abreu, who may be blocking Anthony (and Campbell to a lesser extent.)

I'd be happy with those 4.

[dgalehouse]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Only 5 teams have gone over in '22 and '23: NYY, LAD, PHI, NYM & SDP.

PHI & LAD did in 2021, but that was before the new agreement, so I'm not sure that counts as 3 straight.

Projected over for 2024: NYM, LAD, NYY, PHI, so 4 teams are looking at 3 straight. (SDP reset.) ATL, HOU, TOR and TEX will be over in 2024. (ATL, TOR & TEX were over in '23 but not '22, so they are at 2 years and HOU first year.)

All five of those teams either won their division or a wild card this year. All are still alive in the post season . Their spending is getting results.

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, dgalehouse said:

All five of those teams either won their division or a wild card this year. All are still alive in the post season . Their spending is getting results.

Yup, and I feel like we'd have made the playoffs, if we went over for just this season... assuming our other additions were not like Gio. 

[notin]

28 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I like the high K rate for Fairbanks and see him as a possible closer.

I think you talked me into Nick Martinez over Flaherty.

Ideally, it would be Martinez, Tanner Scott, Fairbanks and Finnegan. I think we could get the two "F's" wihtout losing a major piece to 2024, other than maybe Abreu, who may be blocking Anthony (and Campbell to a lesser extent.)

I'd be happy with those 4.

Fairbanks BTV surplus value is double that of Finnegan, whose deal I propose was acceptable using their system regardless of what names they choose.  (Meidroth is an acceptable substitute for one as well.)

Then deal Abreu (29.7) to Tampa for Fairbanks (9.1) and Yandy Diaz (15.4).  Favors Tampa a little but I’m ok with it…

[notin]

17 minutes ago, dgalehouse said:

All five of those teams either won their division or a wild card this year. All are still alive in the post season . Their spending is getting results.

Those lists are from 2022/2023.  In 2023, both New York teams and San Diego missed the postseason…

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, notin said:

Fairbanks BTV surplus value is double that of Finnegan, whose deal I propose was acceptable using their system regardless of what names they choose.  (Meidroth is an acceptable substitute for one as well.)

Then deal Abreu (29.7) to Tampa for Fairbanks (9.1) and Yandy Diaz (15.4).  Favors Tampa a little but I’m ok with it…

RHB Diaz would be a nice get. He's owed $10M in 2025, and has a $12M option for 2026, so might be on the block. That could work out even better, if we trade Yoshida or Casas.

His OBP dipped but is .373 career- something we could use..

Meidroth for Fairbanks looks good, to me, too. (I'd like to know, if we feel comfortable with Grissom or Campbell/Mayer at 3B, if needed or Devers is moved.

[Hugh2]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

If they added the pitches you mentioned I understand, but I just don’t see the Red Sox adding any top guys for the rotation, or the BP through FA. Those will be highly sought after, and I don’t the Red Sox outbidding many teams. I’m not counting on all of Bello, Kut Man, and Houck all staying healthy,  and making 30 starts either.

Good Afternoon, 

I agree, given this teams recent history a trade for a font line starter is more realistic than going into free agency. 

Still, they have all the resources in the world to do so, it all comes down to desire.  It's a choice, and Henry has made the decision to not be very active at the top tier of the free agency market.  I believe this to be a mistake, and I hope one day it changes. 

Not sure why I started this response with good afternoon, I suppose thats' what happens when I'm supposed to be working

[moonslav59]

I'd trade the three guys mentioned for Finnegan, and Abreu and DHam to TBR for Fairbanks and Diaz, then trade Casas to SEA for Bryce Miller. Sign Tanner Scott, Danny Jansen and Nick Martinez and call it a day.

SP: Houck, Martinez, Miller, Gio, Bello (Crawford #6 or long relief)

RP: Scott, Fairbanks, Finnegan, Hendriks, Slaten, Whitlock, Fulmer, Crawford

1. Duran LF

2. Diaz 1B

3. Anthony RF

4. Devers 3B

5. Campbell 2B-Mayer 2B/SS

6. Story SS- Mayer SS

7. Yoshida-Refsnyder DH

8. Wong-Jansen C

9. Rafaela CF (Maybe Campbell in CF?)

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Good Afternoon, 

I agree, given this teams recent history a trade for a font line starter is more realistic than going into free agency. 

Still, they have all the resources in the world to do so, it all comes down to desire.  It's a choice, and Henry has made the decision to not be very active at the top tier of the free agency market.  I believe this to be a mistake, and I hope one day it changes. 

Not sure why I started this response with good afternoon, I suppose thats' what happens when I'm supposed to be working

Good afternoon, back at ya!

If JH won't spend big on a SP'er, he should not just allow a big trade, he should demand one for a SP.

Use the budget on the pen and a RHB (catcher?) and SP'er depth.

[notin]

47 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'd trade the three guys mentioned for Finnegan, and Abreu and DHam to TBR for Fairbanks and Diaz, then trade Casas to SEA for Bryce Miller. Sign Tanner Scott, Danny Jansen and Nick Martinez and call it a day.

SP: Houck, Martinez, Miller, Gio, Bello (Crawford #6 or long relief)

RP: Scott, Fairbanks, Finnegan, Hendriks, Slaten, Whitlock, Fulmer, Crawford

1. Duran LF

2. Diaz 1B

3. Anthony RF

4. Devers 3B

5. Campbell 2B-Mayer 2B/SS

6. Story SS- Mayer SS

7. Yoshida-Refsnyder DH

8. Wong-Jansen C

9. Rafaela CF (Maybe Campbell in CF?)

Unfortunately for Boston, if Seattle opts to move Bryce Miller or Bryan Woo, they’ll find a much better matchup in our division with Baltimore, as the Orioles have elite 3b prospect Coby Mayo and no place to play him.

Bringing back Danny Jansen is an overlooked but solid idea…