Red Sox hitting approach - what is going on?

[moonslav59]

Who sits when Yoshi plays?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Who sits when Yoshi plays?

AC says the hottest hitter. Gotta take cara these kids, right?

[oldtimer]

19 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I don't disagree, but Rafaela got a real long look, last year.

I really like Rafaela, a lot, and I love great D up the middle. I've pointed out his 0.3 fWAR is on pace for a 2.5 WAR, so it's not about replacing the weakest link. RAF is not him.

I just really like Anthony and think he could rake, day one, and is not bad on D, either.

Rafaela could still platoon with Abreu, give Duran and Anthony a breather, come in for defense late in some games, and also back up 2B and SS. It's not like he'd be benched.

I don't think Rafaela's hitting had developed enough to warrant a FT position but  his defense and versatility along with his right hand bat makes him a player you don't want to quit on. I advocated sending him to the minors to work on his hitting. Meanwhile the Sox are sitting on the #1 prospect who is an outfielder  who has both power and looks like an solid hitter. I advocated taking a chance on  him even though he is another lefty bat. 

Now we are into the season and it still looks like the right approach. Rafaela could rejoin the team at the end of June, assuming he learns to be more selective at the plate. I can see him as that super utility player all teaks would love to  have.

[moonslav59]

15 minutes ago, oldtimer said:

I don't think Rafaela's hitting had developed enough to warrant a FT position but  his defense and versatility along with his right hand bat makes him a player you don't want to quit on. I advocated sending him to the minors to work on his hitting. Meanwhile the Sox are sitting on the #1 prospect who is an outfielder  who has both power and looks like an solid hitter. I advocated taking a chance on  him even though he is another lefty bat. 

Now we are into the season and it still looks like the right approach. Rafaela could rejoin the team at the end of June, assuming he learns to be more selective at the plate. I can see him as that super utility player all teaks would love to  have.

I don't think Rafaela's RHB situation matters much, since his splits are pretty even, and he's been so bad, the lefty bats on the team are about as good or better.

vs. LHPs 2023-2025

.906 Romy

.867 Refnsyder

.858 Casas (LHB)

.731 Devers (LHB)

.720 Wong

.669 Yoshida (LHB)

.660 Duran (LHB)

.619 Story & Grissom

.618 Rafaela

.519 DHam & Abreu

He only beats out 2 guys vs lefties.

Rafaela is .665 v RHPs, which barely beats out refsnyder at .643. (He's much better than Romy .564 and Grissom .425, but they play IF.)

 

[drewski6]

2 hours ago, oldtimer said:

I don't think Rafaela's hitting had developed enough to warrant a FT position but  his defense and versatility along with his right hand bat makes him a player you don't want to quit on. I advocated sending him to the minors to work on his hitting. Meanwhile the Sox are sitting on the #1 prospect who is an outfielder  who has both power and looks like an solid hitter. I advocated taking a chance on  him even though he is another lefty bat. 

Now we are into the season and it still looks like the right approach. Rafaela could rejoin the team at the end of June, assuming he learns to be more selective at the plate. I can see him as that super utility player all teaks would love to  have.

My thoughts are

1. Has anthony spent enough time now where even if they called him up, we wouldnt lose a year of control (if its like another 2 weeks, why not wait it out)

2. Who in CF?

3. Can Cora get over his love for Cedanne enough (or said another way, I dont dislike your idea as much as I think cora would)

But i like a lot about your idea

[mvp 78]

13 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

My thoughts are

1. Has anthony spent enough time now where even if they called him up, we wouldnt lose a year of control (if its like another 2 weeks, why not wait it out)

2. Who in CF?

3. Can Cora get over his love for Cedanne enough (or said another way, I dont dislike your idea as much as I think cora would)

But i like a lot about your idea

1. No, it's like the end of May-mid June. The date changes every year.

 

[Kimmi]

21 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I just can't see a fit for Yoshida.

I spent half the winter seeking anything and everything possible to try and find a way to unload him, without totally writing him off. I found nothing.

As with Anthony, who goes?

Not Devers.

Not Casas (Devers to 1B)

Not Bregman (Devers to 3B)

Not Campbell or Story.

Not Duran.

Not Abreu vs RHPs.

It comes down to Rafaela, again and or REF vs LHPs.

I understood the desire for a RHB and the desire for improved 3B defense, and I like having Bregman on the team, but with all that being said, I did not really think his acquisition was necessary.  IMO, it created (and still creates) somewhat of a logjam.  Yoshida is part of the logjam.  Grissom, whom I don't think really got a fair chance, and Mayer are other parts of said logjam.  Of course, Grissom and Mayer would be somewhat blocked even if Bregman weren't here.

At any rate, before we start trading or DFAing guys in order to call up Anthony, I'm just saying let's protect our depth and give it a longer look.

[Kimmi]

7 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I can ignore the low bb rate, if you're in the 97th percentile for k rate.

This team can't even put the ball in play when runners are on. 

It's so aggravating.  Despite the wins, in the last 2 games, there were at least 3 more instances when the Sox had a runner on 2B with no outs and failed to advance the runner.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

10 minutes ago, Kimmi said:

It's so aggravating.  Despite the wins, in the last 2 games, there were at least 3 more instances when the Sox had a runner on 2B with no outs and failed to advance the runner.

Some posters say it's way too still early to make any significant changes, but the Rockies just fired hitting coach Hensley Muelens. 

Colorado batters have more strike outs than any other club but one... but we know Boston has had two more games full of K opportunities.

Still mystifying how the Rox are below the Sox in HRs and Slug -- is there climate change in Denver... or maybe late storms blowing in at Coors?

[moonslav59]

13 minutes ago, Kimmi said:

I understood the desire for a RHB and the desire for improved 3B defense, and I like having Bregman on the team, but with all that being said, I did not really think his acquisition was necessary.  IMO, it created (and still creates) somewhat of a logjam.  Yoshida is part of the logjam.  Grissom, whom I don't think really got a fair chance, and Mayer are other parts of said logjam.  Of course, Grissom and Mayer would be somewhat blocked even if Bregman weren't here.

At any rate, before we start trading or DFAing guys in order to call up Anthony, I'm just saying let's protect our depth and give it a longer look.

Some sort of trade almost has to happen to clear the multiple logjams we created.

The Yoshi situation will likely end in a near total salary dump trade. Unless there is an injury, he has not place to play. DH is for Devers. LF is already overcrowded. Even if we take Yoshi out of the equation, we still have several jams:

OF: Duran, Abreu (vs R only) Rafaela, Anthony, Refsnyder (v L only) and Campbell. (Y Rod & Jh Garcia down the road)

Middle IF: Story, Campbell, Mayer, DHam/Romy/Grissom with Bregman as depth and Romero/Arias down the pike.

I'm not for trading a top 3 prospect, but we could. If not, they will need a chance to show what they have, at some point, and it won't be while playing a utility role of less than 80% playing time.

Now, trading guys like Grissom, DHam, Refsnyder or Rafaela could ease the jam a little, but not much, except for maybe Rafaela. The returns will not be earth-shattering, either.

[Kimmi]

6 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Some posters say it's way too still early to make any significant changes, but the Rockies just fired hitting coach Hensley Muelens. 

Colorado batters have more strike outs than any other club but one... but we know Boston has had two more games full of K opportunities.

Still mystifying how the Rox are below the Sox in HRs and Slug -- is there climate change in Denver... or maybe late storms blowing in at Coors?

I am among those who think it's too early to make any significant changes, but I'm thinking more in terms of our players rather than our coaches.  I still think it's too early, but I'd be more inclined to part ways with Fatse than I would any of our players.

The Rockies are a flat out mess.

[Kimmi]

9 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Some sort of trade almost has to happen to clear the multiple logjams we created.

The Yoshi situation will likely end in a near total salary dump trade. Unless there is an injury, he has not place to play. DH is for Devers. LF is already overcrowded. Even if we take Yoshi out of the equation, we still have several jams:

OF: Duran, Abreu (vs R only) Rafaela, Anthony, Refsnyder (v L only) and Campbell. (Y Rod & Jh Garcia down the road)

Middle IF: Story, Campbell, Mayer, DHam/Romy/Grissom with Bregman as depth and Romero/Arias down the pike.

I'm not for trading a top 3 prospect, but we could. If not, they will need a chance to show what they have, at some point, and it won't be while playing a utility role of less than 80% playing time.

Now, trading guys like Grissom, DHam, Refsnyder or Rafaela could ease the jam a little, but not much, except for maybe Rafaela. The returns will not be earth-shattering, either.

Yes, I agree that trades will have to happen to clear some logjams.  And that's okay.  I just think it's too early in the season to really know who to trade and what our needs are going to be.  Right now we have some good depth.  I'd like to keep it that way as long as possible, without hurting the success of the current team.

[moonslav59]

48 minutes ago, Kimmi said:

Yes, I agree that trades will have to happen to clear some logjams.  And that's okay.  I just think it's too early in the season to really know who to trade and what our needs are going to be.  Right now we have some good depth.  I'd like to keep it that way as long as possible, without hurting the success of the current team.

Agreed. It's too early to make a trade, until we know more about some situations.

I will say one thing: any chance we have to trade Yoshida needs to be explored. I'd like to wait and see him build some value, but at whose expense? Devers needs to get hurt to give Yoshi DH time. LF seems ever more complicated. Even if we agree to move Rafaela to super utility, we still have Duran FT, Abreu-Refsnyder platoon and Anthony as better choices than an awful defensive guy like Yoshida. Campbell can play CF, too.

He's not playing 1B. I'm thinking trade him for a $3-5M savings a year, or throw in a 2025 Rule 5 prospect we might not want to protect and get more salary relief. I've scoured the roster of other teams to find a salary swap that makes sense, but I found nothing.

[jdc69]

I don't see why Yoshida creates a log jam. Not if Casas keeps on playing the way he is. When Yoshida gets healthy and if Casas hasn't heated up, bring Yoshida up, put Casas back to AAA, have Devers play first (which he may appreciate) and put Yoshida back on DH. Yoshidas batting would fit our needs nicely. He's got a good average and low strike outs.

[mvp 78]

15 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Some posters say it's way too still early to make any significant changes, but the Rockies just fired hitting coach Hensley Muelens. 

Colorado batters have more strike outs than any other club but one... but we know Boston has had two more games full of K opportunities.

Still mystifying how the Rox are below the Sox in HRs and Slug -- is there climate change in Denver... or maybe late storms blowing in at Coors?

Rockies are truly awful. Dumping the hitting coach does nothing but save the team money. 

[mvp 78]

16 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not for trading a top 3 prospect, but we could. If not, they will need a chance to show what they have, at some point, and it won't be while playing a utility role of less than 80% playing time.

Dumping a top prospect to clear salary is really dumb.

[Bellhorn04]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Rockies are truly awful. Dumping the hitting coach does nothing but save the team money. 

How does it save the team money?

[mvp 78]

15 hours ago, Kimmi said:

I am among those who think it's too early to make any significant changes, but I'm thinking more in terms of our players rather than our coaches.  I still think it's too early, but I'd be more inclined to part ways with Fatse than I would any of our players.

The Rockies are a flat out mess.

If the Pirates didn't have Oneil Cruz, they'd be far and away the biggest embarrassment in baseball. They are making a big case. 

[mvp 78]

Just now, Bellhorn04 said:

How does it save the team money?

One less person to pay as they replaced him with a guy they were already paying. 

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

One less person to pay as they replaced him with a guy they were already paying. 

Don't coaches have annual contracts?  I honestly don't know.   

[mvp 78]

18 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Don't coaches have annual contracts?  I honestly don't know.   

It was probably guaranteed, but you never know with the Rockies. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Don't coaches have annual contracts?  I honestly don't know.   

Nowadays, it may be piece work. For batting coaches, every hit is worth a dollar. Swings and misses are only 50 cents. 

But every out not wasted on bunting a ghost runner to third is a five-dollar bonus.

[oldtimer]

16 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Agreed. It's too early to make a trade, until we know more about some situations.

I will say one thing: any chance we have to trade Yoshida needs to be explored. I'd like to wait and see him build some value, but at whose expense? Devers needs to get hurt to give Yoshi DH time. LF seems ever more complicated. Even if we agree to move Rafaela to super utility, we still have Duran FT, Abreu-Refsnyder platoon and Anthony as better choices than an awful defensive guy like Yoshida. Campbell can play CF, too.

He's not playing 1B. I'm thinking trade him for a $3-5M savings a year, or throw in a 2025 Rule 5 prospect we might not want to protect and get more salary relief. I've scoured the roster of other teams to find a salary swap that makes sense, but I found nothing.

This team still has the pieces to make the playoffs but something is holding them back. Ownership has opened their pocketbooks so where can we lay blame? Is it management or coaching? Certainly we didn't get the bats tuned up in Spring training. Trading players and/or bringing up prospects takes management courage to act. Clearly Yoshida has no place to play. Rafaela has had a problem with pitch selection but is versatile and a platinum level defender. Anthony has the potential to be a star hitter with power.

Is there a reason to hold onto Yoshida? Can we bring up Anthony now and send Rafaela down with the understanding he has to work on his hitting? I'm not for trading him as he is young as still may develop into  a star level player. Make moves now and improve the team before we build in another finish out of the playoffs.

[mvp 78]

26 minutes ago, oldtimer said:

This team still has the pieces to make the playoffs but something is holding them back. Ownership has opened their pocketbooks so where can we lay blame? Is it management or coaching? Certainly we didn't get the bats tuned up in Spring training. Trading players and/or bringing up prospects takes management courage to act. Clearly Yoshida has no place to play. Rafaela has had a problem with pitch selection but is versatile and a platinum level defender. Anthony has the potential to be a star hitter with power.

Is there a reason to hold onto Yoshida? Can we bring up Anthony now and send Rafaela down with the understanding he has to work on his hitting? I'm not for trading him as he is young as still may develop into  a star level player. Make moves now and improve the team before we build in another finish out of the playoffs.

Rafaela has tried to work on his hitting ever since he was in AA. What is going to change now? He was arguably better last season when he was swinging at everything and striking out at a higher rate. 

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Dumping a top prospect to clear salary is really dumb.

Never said that, and if a top prospect was included with Yoshida in a trade, it would not be about dumping salary, it would be about getting an excellent player to play in a higher need area than the prospect plays.

When I mentioned trading a prospect with Yoshi, I did not mean a top prospect, but rather a blocked one, or one we may not be able to Rule 5 protect, this winter.... not a top 8 or 9 prospect.

[moonslav59]

25 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Rafaela has tried to work on his hitting ever since he was in AA. What is going to change now? He was arguably better last season when he was swinging at everything and striking out at a higher rate. 

I am surprised that someone finally got Rafaela to change his approach, after years of failure, but yes, change just for change sake is not always a good thing. Maybe, over time, he will further adjust and find a way to hit near .700. That's all he needs to do to be a significant plus CF'er.

I've said the same about posters wishing Devers would change his approach: don't mess with success!

[moonslav59]

59 minutes ago, oldtimer said:

This team still has the pieces to make the playoffs but something is holding them back. Ownership has opened their pocketbooks so where can we lay blame? Is it management or coaching? Certainly we didn't get the bats tuned up in Spring training. Trading players and/or bringing up prospects takes management courage to act. Clearly Yoshida has no place to play. Rafaela has had a problem with pitch selection but is versatile and a platinum level defender. Anthony has the potential to be a star hitter with power.

Is there a reason to hold onto Yoshida? Can we bring up Anthony now and send Rafaela down with the understanding he has to work on his hitting? I'm not for trading him as he is young as still may develop into  a star level player. Make moves now and improve the team before we build in another finish out of the playoffs.

Yoshida has options, so there is reason to keep him in AAA as insurance to a Devers or OF injury. It's not like there is nobody else to DFA or put on the 60 Day IL to make room for Anthony, Mayer, Grandal or whoever else we might want or need added. We could even put Yoshida on the 60, retroactive. Maybe Crawford or Wong could go to the 60 and prolong a DFA or someone else.

Sabol could be DFA'd for a Grandal addition.

Sogard could be DFA'd or traded, so we could add Mayer or Anthony.

Fulmer or Refsnyder could be traded to make room for someone, We already have too few everyday players on the 40.

If it's Yoshi vs Sogard or Fulmer, I might hold onto hope Yoshi can return. He's not really a logjam in AAA, but if we never can work out a way for him to DH, I can see why we'd try to move on from him and his contract.

I still wonder if some equal or worse contract is out there to swap with. We could also pitch in money and take back a big contract, too. We could add a blocked prospect (not a top one) to make it happen. If he can't ever play on the big club, why keep him around. The Devers at 1B idea has been tossed around for years, but something seems to be holding back that idea.

[mvp 78]

25 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I am surprised that someone finally got Rafaela to change his approach, after years of failure, but yes, change just for change sake is not always a good thing. Maybe, over time, he will further adjust and find a way to hit near .700. That's all he needs to do to be a significant plus CF'er.

I've said the same about posters wishing Devers would change his approach: don't mess with success!

"Years" of failure? He had one bad year in the bigs, but I think many of us who watched him through MiLB knew that advanced pitching would attack him in a way that would give him considerable trouble. Other people just looked at his 1088 OPS in AAA and said we were crazy. If he was sent back to AAA, he'd mash again and not learn anything. When he tried an advance approach in the beginning of '23, it didn't work out and he went back to swinging at everything. 

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

"Years" of failure? He had one bad year in the bigs, but I think many of us who watched him through MiLB knew that advanced pitching would attack him in a way that would give him considerable trouble. Other people just looked at his 1088 OPS in AAA and said we were crazy. If he was sent back to AAA, he'd mash again and not learn anything. When he tried an advance approach in the beginning of '23, it didn't work out and he went back to swinging at everything. 

Years of failure to get his K rate down. He's been in our system since 2018. That first year was one of his best K rate season (39/225)

31/188 '19

79/432 '21 (not horrible)

113/522 '22

103/485 '23

151/571 '24 MLB

12/62 in 2025- his best rate ever.

For years, we read they were working on changing his free-swinging approach. You doubt that?

[mvp 78]

Just now, moonslav59 said:

For years, we read they were working on changing his free-swinging approach. You doubt that?

Yes. I believe that they have tried to tweak the approach, but have given him free reign when it has not worked (i.e. '23). His k rate is starting to climb again after hovering at 10% for a few weeks. I think it will be back to 24% by year end. 

Since STL: 29 PA, 6 H, 1 BB, 8 K, 1 XBH