Red Sox hitting approach - what is going on?

[Bellhorn04]

In Game 10 the Sox scored 18 runs.

In the 8 games since they've scored 15 - 2 of them in extra innings.

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

For sure, and we are far outpacing the league's K increases.

The lowering OBP and lack of power worries me more.

I think it's all part of the same issue - a lousy approach.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

13 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The sample size for team K's-2024 + the first 18 games of 2025-is already legit to be deeply concerned about IMHO.     

Why would anyone think the batters in question will change who they are? Warmer weather won't help their hands and eyes make better contact. Maybe they'll face other hurlers like their own that stress throwing more hanging breaking balls -- but isn't every pitching staff loaded with 100 mph heaters?

The only guy who we know can be a better hitter if he adjusts is Raffy Devers, because he just proved it to the world about a week ago. Until he decided to try to pull everything again, including his head...

[mvp 78]

On 9/30/2024 at 12:46 PM, mvp 78 said:

A large part of it is personnel, not just the coaching. Some posters would like to put 100% of the blame on Rafaela. I think if they add one or two guys who take a few more pitches, similar to Schwarber's approach and its impact in '21, it would help the a few of the other guys. 

Oh look, I was saying the same nonsense last fall. 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Why would anyone think the batters in question will change who they are? Warmer weather won't help their hands and eyes make better contact. Maybe they'll face other hurlers like their own that stress throwing more hanging breaking balls -- but isn't every pitching staff loaded with 100 mph heaters?

The only guy who we know can be a better hitter if he adjusts is Raffy Devers, because he just proved it to the world about a week ago. Until he decided to try to pull everything again, including his head...

We do have quite a few younger players, so it was hard to know for sure if further improvement was possible, or not.

Devers is Devers, and I honestly hope we don't try to change his approach.

Casas looked like a decent batter, until the injury, early in '24. I'm not sure about his future. His sample size, at that time, was about what dalbec's was, when he imploded, so...

Story was a big unknown, due to so little playing time over the last 3 seasons.

Refsnyder was a ho-hum journeyman, until he struck gold vs LHPs, starting 3 years ago.

Duran attempted to reinvent his approach, so many times, it was hard to know what sort of batter he was, is and will be. He did have a pretty damn good last 1.5 seasons and seemed to find the right approach. I'm not sure, if this is just a slump, or if pitchers have found his weakness and he needs further adjustments to get good, again.

The rest are young and open books. Abreu still need to prove he can hit lefties to ever play FT. Rafaela has been discussed enough, already. Wong, Narvaez, Campbell and others are pretty much TBD'd.

 

[Bellhorn04]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Oh look, I was saying the same nonsense last fall. 

It's certainly a valid argument.  To me Casas makes a good test case because he's a young hitter who seemed to have a great approach when he came up but now seems to have badly regressed.

[mvp 78]

44 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

It's certainly a valid argument.  To me Casas makes a good test case because he's a young hitter who seemed to have a great approach when he came up but now seems to have badly regressed.

K rate 2024

Pre-injury: 28%

Post-injury: 33%

He definitely was worse after coming back at the end of the year and is really spiraling right now. Maybe he can pull himself out of it. He has always been seen as a "professional hitter" but I think it's time for him to show it, Mr 39% Called Third Strike. 

It's funny because he's swinging at more pitches than ever (especially 1st pitch), but has worse contact %. His looking strikes are WAY down, but he's somehow keeping an obscenely high k rate of which 39% are without a swing. How is he swinging at more strikes, whiffing more, having less called strikes, but taking the same % of called third strikes. Bizarre. He's only patient when there's two strikes now? WTH? 

[mvp 78]

I don't want to read too much into the Netflix doc, but the two biggest "personalities" are really slumping at the start of this year. Get Matt Young's sports psychologist on line 1! 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

We do have quite a few younger players, so it was hard to know for sure if further improvement was possible, or not.

Devers is Devers, and I honestly hope we don't try to change his approach.

Casas looked like a decent batter, until the injury, early in '24. I'm not sure about his future. His sample size, at that time, was about what dalbec's was, when he imploded, so...

Story was a big unknown, due to so little playing time over the last 3 seasons.

Refsnyder was a ho-hum journeyman, until he struck gold vs LHPs, starting 3 years ago.

Duran attempted to reinvent his approach, so many times, it was hard to know what sort of batter he was, is and will be. He did have a pretty damn good last 1.5 seasons and seemed to find the right approach. I'm not sure, if this is just a slump, or if pitchers have found his weakness and he needs further adjustments to get good, again.

The rest are young and open books. Abreu still need to prove he can hit lefties to ever play FT. Rafaela has been discussed enough, already. Wong, Narvaez, Campbell and others are pretty much TBD'd.

 

I'd just like to see Devers use the whole-field approach consistently.

Do you think he knows that only 28% of his career hits are pulled?

Raffy career hit splits, according to bb-ref: pulled 303, middle 574, oppo 200.

Stats are similar for homers, with only 34% pulled: 69 pulled, 100 middle, 32 oppo.

[mvp 78]

35 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I'd just like to see Devers use the whole-field approach consistently.

Do you think he knows that only 28% of his career hits are pulled?

Raffy career hit splits, according to bb-ref: pulled 303, middle 574, oppo 200.

Stats are similar for homers, with only 34% pulled: 69 pulled, 100 middle, 32 oppo.

He has the same approach that worked for Papi.

[Bellhorn04]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He has the same approach that worked for Papi.

But he's no Papi.

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

But he's no Papi.

Agreed, through age 27, Raffy was better.

[Kimmi]

On 9/22/2024 at 4:46 PM, dgalehouse said:

There are situations where you need to put the ball in play. Nothing good comes from a strikeout. 

Typically, I don't care if an out comes via strikeout or another means.  That said, there are situations where you absolutely need to put the ball in play.  The inability of this offense to have a productive at bat is probably the most frustrating thing to watch.

Early Red Sox 2025 stats:

Productive out % - 25.4%,  League average - 28.8%

Getting a runner home from 3B with less than 2 outs - 51.3%,  League average - 52.2%

Advancing a runner from 2B with 0 outs - 29.0%,  League average - 48.0%

Surprisingly enough, the Red Sox were slightly above average with the first 2 stats last year, and just below average on the 3rd stat.

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, Kimmi said:

Advancing a runner from 2B with 0 outs - 29.0%,  League average - 48.0%

I don't have the appropriate site safe reaction for this, kimmi... 

There's still 89% of the season to play and I'm going to do my best to be patient until Memorial Day. I'm fine with Cora moving around the lineup for struggling hitters and mixing and matching bullpen guys. At this point, firing a coach isn't going to fix anything. It's just going to punt the season. Hard to do an in season trade this early and the players you'd want to move are vastly underperforming. Why sell Masa, Casas, etc. at their lowest value? I think we just have to hope for a turnaround from internal options.

[Kimmi]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I don't have the appropriate site safe reaction for this, kimmi... 

There's still 89% of the season to play and I'm going to do my best to be patient until Memorial Day. I'm fine with Cora moving around the lineup for struggling hitters and mixing and matching bullpen guys. At this point, firing a coach isn't going to fix anything. It's just going to punt the season. Hard to do an in season trade this early and the players you'd want to move are vastly underperforming. Why sell Masa, Casas, etc. at their lowest value? I think we just have to hope for a turnaround from internal options.

I'm the last person who would be advocating for making changes, either with the players or the coaches.  This offense should be good.  I trust Cora.  I think they'll turn it around fairly soon.  At least I hope so.  I'm just extremely frustrated with them right now, as I think we all are.  They'll get it together.

[moonslav59]

22 minutes ago, Kimmi said:

I'm the last person who would be advocating for making changes, either with the players or the coaches.  This offense should be good.  I trust Cora.  I think they'll turn it around fairly soon.  At least I hope so.  I'm just extremely frustrated with them right now, as I think we all are.  They'll get it together.

I feel the same, but the worry is growing to a point where I do think some changes might be called for. Sitting a player for 1-2 games is not drastic, unless it's Devers.

I'd give it a few more games, then I might temporarily sit Casas with Duran's leash getting shorter.

Rafaela's D has been so good, I'm not sure I'm ready to sit him, but I do like the idea of an Anthony promotion once he reaches extra year time.

[Kimmi]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I feel the same, but the worry is growing to a point where I do think some changes might be called for. Sitting a player for 1-2 games is not drastic, unless it's Devers.

I'd give it a few more games, then I might temporarily sit Casas with Duran's leash getting shorter.

Rafaela's D has been so good, I'm not sure I'm ready to sit him, but I do like the idea of an Anthony promotion once he reaches extra year time.

I don't have a problem with sitting a player for a game or two to let him clear his head.  I don't think it's time to even start thinking about calling up Anthony or anyone else, or to even start thinking about making any trades unless an injury calls for it.

[dgalehouse]

3 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

It's certainly a valid argument.  To me Casas makes a good test case because he's a young hitter who seemed to have a great approach when he came up but now seems to have badly regressed.

Casas believes that he is the world's foremost authority on the strike zone. Even when taking a called strike three, he just knows he was right. 

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, Kimmi said:

I don't have a problem with sitting a player for a game or two to let him clear his head.  I don't think it's time to even start thinking about calling up Anthony or anyone else, or to even start thinking about making any trades unless an injury calls for it.

With Anthony, I feel he was ML ready day one. I'm not sure anyone deserves a demotion, but I think Anthony could be the spark we need.

He also has a good approach to hitting. (Take note, Bell.)

[illinoisredsox]

1 hour ago, dgalehouse said:

Casas believes that he is the world's foremost authority on the strike zone. Even when taking a called strike three, he just knows he was right. 

That is an excellent way of stating it.  Casas take far too many strikes that are clearly strikes.  He's a prima donna who doesn't realize he's just being a jerk with all the it's about me stuff, and he's apparently always been that way.  There's a podcaster who played against him for several years when they were kids, and while said podster will tell you Casas was always the best player on the field, he was a jerk even back then.  Memo to Casas (and paraphrasing from Bull Durham) when you hit 40/120 a couple times, you'll be called colorful.  Until then, you're just a jerk.

Dalbec couldn't hit, but he seemed to get an inordinate number of pitches called strikes that were 3 inches out of the zone.  He'd be down 0-2 and hadn't see an actual strike yet.  Not sure why as he seldom said anything and by the end, he was so tied up in his own head that he couldn't pull the trigger.  At least Dalbec could run a little and attempt to play another position. Casas runs like he's carrying the name on his back (Casas being Spanish for houses). 

  

[Kimmi]

On 4/15/2025 at 4:12 PM, dgalehouse said:

Casas believes that he is the world's foremost authority on the strike zone. Even when taking a called strike three, he just knows he was right. 

I may be wrong, but it seems to me that the past 2 years, he was usually right about those called strikes that were actually balls.  This year, not so much.  At any rate, what ever happened to protecting the plate on those close pitches?

 

[Kimmi]

23 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

With Anthony, I feel he was ML ready day one. I'm not sure anyone deserves a demotion, but I think Anthony could be the spark we need.

He also has a good approach to hitting. (Take note, Bell.)

I'm not saying that Anthony isn't ready, nor do I disagree that he could provide a spark.  I just think that it is too early in the season for that.  We need to give this current roster a longer look.

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, Kimmi said:

I'm not saying that Anthony isn't ready, nor do I disagree that he could provide a spark.  I just think that it is too early in the season for that.  We need to give this current roster a longer look.

I don't disagree, but Rafaela got a real long look, last year.

I really like Rafaela, a lot, and I love great D up the middle. I've pointed out his 0.3 fWAR is on pace for a 2.5 WAR, so it's not about replacing the weakest link. RAF is not him.

I just really like Anthony and think he could rake, day one, and is not bad on D, either.

Rafaela could still platoon with Abreu, give Duran and Anthony a breather, come in for defense late in some games, and also back up 2B and SS. It's not like he'd be benched.

[Kimmi]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I don't disagree, but Rafaela got a real long look, last year.

I really like Rafaela, a lot, and I love great D up the middle. I've pointed out his 0.3 fWAR is on pace for a 2.5 WAR, so it's not about replacing the weakest link. RAF is not him.

I just really like Anthony and think he could rake, day one, and is not bad on D, either.

Rafaela could still platoon with Abreu, give Duran and Anthony a breather, come in for defense late in some games, and also back up 2B and SS. It's not like he'd be benched.

I don't really disagree with any of that.  But if Anthony comes up, somebody has to go.  And what becomes of Yoshida when he's healthy?

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Kimmi said:

I don't really disagree with any of that.  But if Anthony comes up, somebody has to go.  And what becomes of Yoshida when he's healthy?

I just can't see a fit for Yoshida.

I spent half the winter seeking anything and everything possible to try and find a way to unload him, without totally writing him off. I found nothing.

As with Anthony, who goes?

Not Devers.

Not Casas (Devers to 1B)

Not Bregman (Devers to 3B)

Not Campbell or Story.

Not Duran.

Not Abreu vs RHPs.

It comes down to Rafaela, again and or REF vs LHPs.

[Hugh2]

Tristan Casas actually does have great judgment on the strike zone. 

The issue is, when you have two strikes on you and you take a borderline pitch.  You're going to strike out on that pitch often where's another hitter might foul it off.  

It's very frustrating, but it's very hard to change habits, Casas might benefit greatly from the inevitable robo umps more than most. 

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Tristan Casas actually does have great judgment on the strike zone. 

The issue is, when you have two strikes on you and you take a borderline pitch.  You're going to strike out on that pitch often where's another hitter might foul it off.  

It's very frustrating, but it's very hard to change habits, Casas might benefit greatly from the inevitable robo umps more than most. 

You'd think he'd benefit, as SoxProspects used to always proclaim that Meidroth was the master of the ABS system. However, when they looked into it, Meidroth had about a 50% challenge rate, which would probably be the same as Tristan's. 

I'm with you, I'd rather he have a better two strike approach. What other reason is there for him to adjust his stance with two strikes???

His called third strike % is 39%, which is just about the same as '24 and '22. Seems like '23 is the abberration. It's weird that he's swinging more earlier in the count, but taking the same amount of borderline called third strikes. 

Right now, his bb rate is way down and his hard hit rate is down. He's going oppo more than ever. There may be SOME BABIP luck going on, but I think he's a guy that needs a few to drop in just to get his confidence back. 

[mvp 78]

16 hours ago, Kimmi said:

I don't really disagree with any of that.  But if Anthony comes up, somebody has to go.  And what becomes of Yoshida when he's healthy?

Yoshida rarely k's. He has a wonderful approach that is lacking. I think we've all had some questions about the roster construction here. 

[Bellhorn04]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Yoshida rarely k's. He has a wonderful approach that is lacking.

Doesn't walk that much though.

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Doesn't walk that much though.

I can ignore the low bb rate, if you're in the 97th percentile for k rate.

This team can't even put the ball in play when runners are on.