Craig Breslow: CBO of the Red Sox

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, notin said:

How many pitchers do you have to sign to replace a guy who had thrown 150 IP total in the previous 4 years?

That question is only pertinent if we're working from a premise that all Breslow needed to do was replace Sale.

Objectively speaking, what Breslow did was swap Sale for Giolito and Grissom, and that cost us $36.25 million in AAV.

And before Giolito's injury the projected 2024 WAR's for Giolito and Sale were about equal.

So even ignoring what actually happened, Breslow did absolute zero to upgrade the rotation.

   

 

  

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Signing Giolito, trading Sale and doing nothing else was a very questionable course of action on the 2024 rotation. 

It was, but Sale was as questionable as Gio, and we made a serious stab at finally fixing the 2B problem that has been ongoing for 7 years, now.

The deal made some sense, at the time, even on the pitching end, had Sale just continued his 5 year trend, and Gio pitched like he is now. That's not some huge leap of faith and bonehead idea.

In hindsight, it is.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

2 hours ago, notin said:

Do you prefer 7 year David Price contracts? Those tend to be much, much more detrimental when a player gets hurt or sucks…

Glad you asked. I prefer the Red Sox haven't gone all-in on the illusion of competing since the Dombrowski Daze.

The entire Bloomslow Show has revolved around signing cheap Wait-And-See pitchers -- and the front office business plan is to keep doing it every single year this decade. 

That's basically what the Giolito signing was: hoping and wishing and praying a guy who suddenly became affordable because of bad performance would regain his past glory.  He's looked good lately and I'm glad for him because I have nothing against him -- just what he represented in Boston's business model.

True contenders never bank their offseasons on just adding Wait-and-See guys to get them into the playoffs and World Series.

Btw, I never wanted Price, especially at his price, but what really irks me is I believe these 2020s Sox are intentionally playing musical chairs with the Wait-and-Sees and have no intention of ever resigning any at market value -- in case someone is good...

... like Wacha (already 2.1 WAR in half of '25; Boston is lucky to have starters reach 2.1 for entire seasons now).

[Maxbialystock]

On 6/28/2025 at 12:34 PM, Bellhorn04 said:

Max, I think you make too much out of trying to 'isolate' the problem.  Our offense has lost us plenty of games.  We've lost 6 in a row, 2 of them were by scores of 3-2.  It's very easy for a team to be bad in multiple areas.     

No doubt.  But the simple fact is that the Sox are ranked 18th in team ERA, 8th in runs scored, and 7th in team OPS.  

Plus to me it's significant that in the 6 game losing streak the Sox scored 16 runs, and in the 6 game winning streak they scored 17 runs with Devers still in the lineup.   

The Sox active payroll is $105M, 19th in MLB.  Total payroll is $192M, 12th.  When I look at the injured list, I see two bats, Bregman and Yoshida, who should make a difference in July and after. moonslav pointed out that Yohshida/Ref could be a heckuva DH combo.    And all I see among the IL pitchers is Dobbins.  

I also like the defense with Abreu back and Bregman soon to return.  Anthony, Rafaela, and Abreu in the outfield, Narvaez/Wong catching, and Bregman, Mayer, Story, and Gonzalez/Toro/Campbell in the infield.   

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

That question is only pertinent if we're working from a premise that all Breslow needed to do was replace Sale.

Objectively speaking, what Breslow did was swap Sale for Giolito and Grissom, and that cost us $36.25 million in AAV.

And before Giolito's injury the projected 2024 WAR's for Giolito and Sale were about equal.

So even ignoring what actually happened, Breslow did absolute zero to upgrade the rotation.

  

Except maybe figuring on the durability factor- not the uppside factor.

Weren't we all sick of pitchers on the IL, all the time? (Like now?)

Gio was supposed to be an answer to that, despite rumblings that his second half decline, the year before might have been injury related.

Can you honestly say, you'd have bet that Sale would pitch more innings than Gio in 2024?

IP since Covid

Gio: 179, 162, 184 (251 from '19-'20)

Sale: 43, 6, 102 (147 from '19-'20)

I think the idea was, they preferred a guy who took the ball every 5 days and saved the pen, over a better pitcher who never or hardly pitches. That does make some sense, doesn't it? It just did not work out as they expected.

(Also, when you factored the money spent on Gio, you did not factor in the savings on not paying Sale most of his money.)

[notin]

5 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

No doubt.  But the simple fact is that the Sox are ranked 18th in team ERA, 8th in runs scored, and 7th in team OPS.  

Plus to me it's significant that in the 6 game losing streak the Sox scored 16 runs, and in the 6 game winning streak they scored 17 runs with Devers still in the lineup.   

The Sox active payroll is $105M, 19th in MLB.  Total payroll is $192M, 12th.  When I look at the injured list, I see two bats, Bregman and Yoshida, who should make a difference in July and after. moonslav pointed out that Yohshida/Ref could be a heckuva DH combo.    And all I see among the IL pitchers is Dobbins.  

I also like the defense with Abreu back and Bregman soon to return.  Anthony, Rafaela, and Abreu in the outfield, Narvaez/Wong catching, and Bregman, Mayer, Story, and Gonzalez/Toro/Campbell in the infield.   

 

 

 

They are unlikely to maintain being 8th in runs scored the rest of the way without Devers…

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Glad you asked. I prefer the Red Sox haven't gone all-in on the illusion of competing since the Dombrowski Daze.

The entire Bloomslow Show has revolved around signing cheap Wait-And-See pitchers -- and the front office business plan is to keep doing it every single year this decade. 

That's basically what the Giolito signing was: hoping and wishing and praying a guy who suddenly became affordable because of bad performance would regain his past glory.  He's looked good lately and I'm glad for him because I have nothing against him -- just what he represented in Boston's business model.

True contenders never bank their offseasons on just adding Wait-and-See guys to get them into the playoffs and World Series.

Btw, I never wanted Price, especially at his price, but what really irks me is I believe these 2020s Sox are intentionally playing musical chairs with the Wait-and-Sees and have no intention of ever resigning any at market value -- in case someone is good...

... like Wacha (already 2.1 WAR in half of '25; Boston is lucky to have starters reach 2.1 for entire seasons now).

While Gio, Buehler and Jansen we not top paid pitchers, they were not "cheap" and they did represent an uptick in expectations over the Richards, Klubers Perez's, Wachas and Hills of the 2019-2022 era of low spending.

I'm not defending it. We should have spend even more, but I do think the effort increased to improve the pitching. I was going to say "reliable pitchers," but then Buehler, Sandoval, Hendriks and others came to mind. In this sense, you are right: we just went more upscale on unreliables.

[notin]

10 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Glad you asked. I prefer the Red Sox haven't gone all-in on the illusion of competing since the Dombrowski Daze.

The entire Bloomslow Show has revolved around signing cheap Wait-And-See pitchers -- and the front office business plan is to keep doing it every single year this decade. 

That's basically what the Giolito signing was: hoping and wishing and praying a guy who suddenly became affordable because of bad performance would regain his past glory.  He's looked good lately and I'm glad for him because I have nothing against him -- just what he represented in Boston's business model.

True contenders never bank their offseasons on just adding Wait-and-See guys to get them into the playoffs and World Series.

Btw, I never wanted Price, especially at his price, but what really irks me is I believe these 2020s Sox are intentionally playing musical chairs with the Wait-and-Sees and have no intention of ever resigning any at market value -- in case someone is good...

... like Wacha (already 2.1 WAR in half of '25; Boston is lucky to have starters reach 2.1 for entire seasons now).

And coming off his 4.40 ERA season in 2019, wasn’t Sale the ultimate “wait and see” guy?  
 

He certainly gave Boston fans the “wait” part…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

While Gio, Buehler and Jansen we not top paid pitchers, they were not "cheap" and they did represent an uptick in expectations over the Richards, Klubers Perez's, Wachas and Hills of the 2019-2022 era of low spending.

I'm not defending it. We should have spend even more, but I do think the effort increased to improve the pitching. I was going to say "reliable pitchers," but then Buehler, Sandoval, Hendriks and others came to mind. In this sense, you are right: we just went more upscale on unreliables.

They're spending more, but still on one-year guys like Buehler (failure) and Chapman (success). 

The best thing they've done all decade isn't the Crochet trade, but the Crochet extension. Now at least they have a guy atop the rotation they can build around with youth and hopefully, add to with quality.

This is why I'm against any deadline deals that include top pitching prospects like Payton Tolle or Brandon Clarke. I don't mind giving up prospects who play positions where we have depth, but that's never on the mound... 

Good young arms -- making minor league wages -- have to be the most valuable keepers in the system;  especially so it won't waste more money on older, broken down arms with a lot of mileage on them.

[vegasbob]

On 6/28/2025 at 12:17 PM, notin said:

1.  I think the Sox bat boys are actual bats.

2.  Actually outside of Toy Cannon Winn, that roster might be its contemporary equal to this Sox roster.  Rusty Staub carved out a great career as a PH/DH, but who are his current day equivalents?  And while Nellie Fox was a 6-8 bWAR MVP in his prime, he was not on his prime while he was in Houston…

Don't pop my bubble, those were my boys and I picked up their bats and clubhouse trash.

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

They're spending more, but still on one-year guys like Buehler (failure) and Chapman (success). 

The best thing they've done all decade isn't the Crochet trade, but the Crochet extension. Now at least they have a guy atop the rotation they can build around with youth and hopefully, add to with quality.

This is why I'm against any deadline deals that include top pitching prospects like Payton Tolle or Brandon Clarke. I don't mind giving up prospects who play positions where we have depth, but that's never on the mound... 

Good young arms -- making minor league wages -- have to be the most valuable keepers in the system;  especially so it won't waste more money on older, broken down arms with a lot of mileage on them.

I get it. I was big on signing Fried.

I'd be fine with another Crochet trade and extension, instead, even if we lose a top 3 prospect and a couple more next tier guys.

I'm okay with 1-2 year deals on closers, as long as we keep choosing wisely (Jansen & Chapman.) I'm not okay with Perez I, Perez II, Richards, Kluber, Wacha, Hill, Paxton, Giolito, Sandoval & Buehler. I thought the last three was an improvement, but just slightly. We need more boldness on pitching. Brez did "bold" on Crochet & Bregman, and now we need double bold on pitching and we still need bats to make up for losing Devers (and maybe Bregman.)

There is a lot to get done to get us to serious contention. At minimum, we need...

1. A second ace or top #2 type SP'er.

2. Another solid SP'er, since we can't count on 3 from Bello, Sandoval, Dobbins and Crawford.

3. A closer as good as Chapman and Jansen were.

4. Bregman or an equal bat at corner infield

5. 2Bman who is good on D and O.

6. 2nd corner infielder (unless you have faith in Casas, Campbell, Toro, Romy & Eaton at 3B or 1B... see #4.)

Maybes:

A set up man as good as Wilson was, although maybe we just role the dice with Slaten, Whitlock, Houck, Harrison, Hicks and one of our SP'ers who doesn't make the rotation (Dobbins, Crawford, Fitts, Early, Sandlin...)

A back up catcher.

A DH.

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Except maybe figuring on the durability factor- not the uppside factor.

Weren't we all sick of pitchers on the IL, all the time? (Like now?)

Gio was supposed to be an answer to that, despite rumblings that his second half decline, the year before might have been injury related.

Can you honestly say, you'd have bet that Sale would pitch more innings than Gio in 2024?

IP since Covid

Gio: 179, 162, 184 (251 from '19-'20)

Sale: 43, 6, 102 (147 from '19-'20)

I think the idea was, they preferred a guy who took the ball every 5 days and saved the pen, over a better pitcher who never or hardly pitches. That does make some sense, doesn't it? It just did not work out as they expected.

(Also, when you factored the money spent on Gio, you did not factor in the savings on not paying Sale most of his money.)

They paid Giolito 19.25 (AAV) and Sale 17 for a total of 36.25.  Some savings.

[notin]

24 minutes ago, vegasbob said:

Don't pop my bubble, those were my boys and I picked up their bats and clubhouse trash.

Just for fun, who was the biggest slob?

[Bellhorn04]

45 minutes ago, notin said:

And coming off his 4.40 ERA season in 2019, wasn’t Sale the ultimate “wait and see” guy?  
 

He certainly gave Boston fans the “wait” part…

The extension was before 2019.

[Maxbialystock]

On 6/28/2025 at 12:48 PM, moonslav59 said:

We are losing because of all areas not doing well, Max.

The rotation. The pen, The offense. The defense. The baserunning.

I'm not sure, if it matters that pitching is a couple percentage points higher than batting + defense + Baserunning, assuming it is. We suck in every category.

The Astros have been missing 5 of their best 8 SP'er all or nearly all season long and they traded away Tucker, last winter. Yordan Alvarez is batting .646. Is this any worse than us trading Devers and seeing Bregman on the IL, along with Houck and Crawford?

This is a team effort losing streak, including Cora and Brez, the coaches and maybe even that batboys.

Maybe in my decrepitude I've become more optimistic than you.  

The Astros active payroll is $168M to our $105M.  

You know why I like our defense, which will get even better when Bregman returns:  Abreu, Rafaela, and Anthony in the OF, Bregman, Mayer, Story, and whoever at 1b, and Narvaez/Wong catching.  

And you seem unaware that opposing teams have done some egregious baserunning.  Yesterday with the bases loaded, 2 outs, Buehler in a meltdown on the mound, and Bichette at the plate, Heinemann got picked off!!!!!!  There have been a bunch of other miscues against us.   Also errors.   

I do agree the hitting and pitching are both lacking, but I see the hitting and defense improving with the return of Bregman, especially, but also Yoshida.  The tricky part is whether rookies Anthony and Mayer will get better, and I think they will.   I see nothing comparable in the pitching staff although Dobbins return should help the rotation.  On June 8 and 14 he went 11 IP vs the Yankees giving up 3 runs.  

Back to the IL.  I definitely left out the likes of Crawford, Houck, Slaten, and Winckowski, all of whom were very useful last season.  To Breslow's credit, both Crochet and Chapman have been excellent.  

Also this.  We are finally seeing Campbell, Mayer, and Anthony, all highly touted.  Narvaez is also a rookie, so Cora has been managing 4 rookies this season, all of whom have started.   I'm optimistic about all 4, but believe, as you no doubt do, they are not yet where they can be.  

The Sox are 3 under .500 and 3 behind the last AL wild card, Seattle.  Up ahead are 13 games against Cincy, @ the Nats, Rockies, and the Rays before the All-Star break.  I think the Sox can go 7-6 and stay in the field competing for the postseason.  When Bregman, Dobbins, and Yoshida return, they should be able to make a good run over the final 64 games.  

 

 

 

 

 

[vegasbob]

54 minutes ago, notin said:

Just for fun, who was the biggest slob?

Eddie Kasko was a prick, Fox and Runnels were great friends,  Hal Brown was a nice guy , but the slob in the bunch was Walter Bonds who left a trail of debris wherever he went.   He could hit but not like Barry or Bobby.

The clubhouse  manager was Whitey Diskin , who was nearly blind, so I had to sort the uniforms to make sure they went to the right lockers.  It was a great experience .

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

They paid Giolito 19.25 (AAV) and Sale 17 for a total of 36.25.  Some savings.

Yes, but it was $36M  vs the $26M we were spending on the incredibly unreliable Sale.

We essentially replace Sale with Gio at $10M AAV and added what we thought was our 2B solution.

Again, we all know it backfired on all the fronts: Sale, Gio & Grissom, but at the time, it made "SOME SENSE," right?

You really don't see any logic in the attempt to improve on rotation reliability and a 2B upgrade?

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The extension was before 2019.

Yes, and we also let Kimbrel and Kelly go before 2019 with no corresponding additions.

The breakdown began under DD, and the revelation that Betts was almost traded under DD confirms the choice was made before the Bloom hire and DD departure.

[moonslav59]

55 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

Maybe in my decrepitude I've become more optimistic than you.  

The Astros active payroll is $168M to our $105M.  

You know why I like our defense, which will get even better when Bregman returns:  Abreu, Rafaela, and Anthony in the OF, Bregman, Mayer, Story, and whoever at 1b, and Narvaez/Wong catching.  

And you seem unaware that opposing teams have done some egregious baserunning.  Yesterday with the bases loaded, 2 outs, Buehler in a meltdown on the mound, and Bichette at the plate, Heinemann got picked off!!!!!!  There have been a bunch of other miscues against us.   Also errors.   

I do agree the hitting and pitching are both lacking, but I see the hitting and defense improving with the return of Bregman, especially, but also Yoshida.  The tricky part is whether rookies Anthony and Mayer will get better, and I think they will.   I see nothing comparable in the pitching staff although Dobbins return should help the rotation.  On June 8 and 14 he went 11 IP vs the Yankees giving up 3 runs.  

Back to the IL.  I definitely left out the likes of Crawford, Houck, Slaten, and Winckowski, all of whom were very useful last season.  To Breslow's credit, both Crochet and Chapman have been excellent.  

Also this.  We are finally seeing Campbell, Mayer, and Anthony, all highly touted.  Narvaez is also a rookie, so Cora has been managing 4 rookies this season, all of whom have started.   I'm optimistic about all 4, but believe, as you no doubt do, they are not yet where they can be.  

The Sox are 3 under .500 and 3 behind the last AL wild card, Seattle.  Up ahead are 13 games against Cincy, @ the Nats, Rockies, and the Rays before the All-Star break.  I think the Sox can go 7-6 and stay in the field competing for the postseason.  When Bregman, Dobbins, and Yoshida return, they should be able to make a good run over the final 64 games.  

Not mentioning every little thing does not mean I am unaware.

I've said all along, the rest of the AL was mediocre and almost every team that was better than us, last year, did very little to improve and actually several got worse on paper.

It was one of my main reasons for preseason optimism.

I still am optimistic about our extended future, but not for 2025.

Citing how much of our budget is on the IL is nothing to be optimistic about. Very few are expected back, soon, and all but maybe Bregman and Sandoval offer any big impact hopes.

Sure, out kids could all mature, quickly, over the next 2-3 months, and maybe we see a bounce back from Buehler, Houck, Dobbins from injury or a guy like Sandoval, along with Bregman stepping in right where he left off and a bunch of other things all going right, at the same time, but the odds are not very high, Max.

[Bellhorn04]

31 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes, but it was $36M  vs the $26M we were spending on the incredibly unreliable Sale.

We essentially replace Sale with Gio at $10M AAV and added what we thought was our 2B solution.

Again, we all know it backfired on all the fronts: Sale, Gio & Grissom, but at the time, it made "SOME SENSE," right?

You really don't see any logic in the attempt to improve on rotation reliability and a 2B upgrade?

Giolito was a risky guy too.  In his case it was performance risk after a horrific stretch of pitching.

I was not upset when I first heard about trading Sale.  But when the offseason was over and I realized all we had done was swap Sale for Giolito, I was disgusted.

 

 

[notin]

17 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Giolito was a risky guy too.  In his case it was performance risk after a horrific stretch of pitching.

I was not upset when I first heard about trading Sale.  But when the offseason was over and I realized all we had done was swap Sale for Giolito, I was disgusted.

 

 

Without the benefit of hindsight, would you have been fine just keeping Sale and no other starters added?

[moonslav59]

16 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Giolito was a risky guy too.  In his case it was performance risk after a horrific stretch of pitching.

I was not upset when I first heard about trading Sale.  But when the offseason was over and I realized all we had done was swap Sale for Giolito, I was disgusted.

I did not like the Gio signing on day one, either, for the reasons everyone has stated. He sucked for the second half of 2023. I did see him as more likely to pitch more innings than Sale with some hope he could bounce back. It's not like the first half of 2023 does not count or was so far away that it was absurd to think he might pitch that well, again. He's kinda doing that now, so the idea looks less absurd, now. That was the point I was trying to highlight.

The trade sucks, in hindsight, There is no doubt on this. We both did not think it was a bad deal trading Sale, saving $17M AAV, adding what we hoped was a 2B solution and then using the savings on someone that looked like a better bet than Kluber, Richards, Paxton and Martin Perez. It made some sense to us, at the time, so I find it hard to slam Brez for what happened in hindsight. 

It was a bad trade, but it wasn't illogical, at the time. IMO, it wasn't an obvious bad idea at the time.

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

Without the benefit of hindsight, would you have been fine just keeping Sale and no other starters added?

Had we kept Sale, we would not have had the cash to pay for someone even less promising than Gio.

[Bellhorn04]

18 minutes ago, notin said:

Without the benefit of hindsight, would you have been fine just keeping Sale and no other starters added?

No.  I've never said anything like that.  We needed an upgrade.

[Bellhorn04]

37 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Had we kept Sale, we would not have had the cash to pay for someone even less promising than Gio.

Right, going cheap again had a lot to do with trading Sale.  I've been saying that all along. 

[moonslav59]

23 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Right, going cheap again had a lot to do with trading Sale.  I've been saying that all along. 

Money was certainly a part of the Sale trade, as it was with Betts. Not replacing the money for Kimbrel & Kelly, Porcello & ERod, JD & Bogey and on and on. Not many GMs could take a roster gutting like that and produce winning teams.

They certainly could have done better. Even $10M/1 deals should eventually net a good result.

[Bellhorn04]

Just now, moonslav59 said:

Money was certainly a part of the Sale trade, as it was with Betts. Not replacing the money for Kimbrel & Kelly, Porcello & ERod, JD & Bogey and on and on. Not many GMs could take a roster gutting like that and produce winning teams.

They certainly could have done better. Even $10M/1 deals should eventually net a good result.

But even if they do it's only for one year, like Wacha, then it's bye-bye.

That's all part of the cheap philosophy they were following.  Hopefully they stay open to spending as the Crochet/Bregman/Buehler investments indicated they were this year.

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

But even if they do it's only for one year, like Wacha, then it's bye-bye.

That's all part of the cheap philosophy they were following.  Hopefully they stay open to spending as the Crochet/Bregman/Buehler investments indicated they were this year.

Agreed. Everytime we spend $10M/1, I say "You get what you pay for."

Every winter I beg for a top pitcher signing or trade- or both.

I loved the Crochet trade and wanted Fried, too. Fried got $27M x 8. While 8 years is absurd, it's what is needed to get guys like him. The $27M AAV was $6M more than Buehler!

We spent almost $90M on Buehler, Gio, Sandoval & Hendriks. Add the money we spent on Richards, Kluber, Paxton and others you can see where I'm going with this. It doesn't equal what Fried cost, but in terms of AAV, it's $27M vs anywhere from about $10M to more than $27M, each season.

I totally agree with you on this, Bell. To me, it has been our biggest singular failure since the Nate re-signing, and even that one was not super great. (extending him after '22 would have been.)

We need to take the plunge. I'm not sure this winter offers the type of guy to do it with. I really liked Fried, last winter, but we need to roll the dice.

How Soon Is Now?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

What's irksome about the Giolito signing was that he was coming off the worst final couple months of any free agent starter. The Red Sox looked around the bar at closing time and picked the one sure thing who would go home with them.

It was obvious the Sox weren't going to land Ohtani or Yamamoto, and they weren't going to pay what Nola or Snell wanted.  But St Louis ended up with Sonny Gray (current NL leader in Ws) for three years at $25 mil per, while Jordan Montgomery -- who reportedly wanted to sign with Boston -- also got $25 mil from Arizona. Sean Manaea, once a Bailey pupil, signed for only $14 mil per for two years, but with an opt-out... which he exercised and then resigned for $25 mil per over the next three. 

So $25 million per year was established as market value for a bonafide starting pitcher.

But Breslow and Co. stole Gio for appx. $19 mil per -- what a coop, what savings for Big Market Boston! 

New York and LA are jealous. The Yankees probably spend the $6 million dollar difference on barbers, and the Dodgers blow it on front row seats at Hollywood Awards shows.

 

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

What's irksome about the Giolito signing was that he was coming off the worst final couple months of any free agent starter. The Red Sox looked around the bar at closing time and picked the one sure thing who would go home with them.

It was obvious the Sox weren't going to land Ohtani or Yamamoto, and they weren't going to pay what Nola or Snell wanted.  But St Louis ended up with Sonny Gray (current NL leader in Ws) for three years at $25 mil per, while Jordan Montgomery -- who reportedly wanted to sign with Boston -- also got $25 mil from Arizona. Sean Manaea, once a Bailey pupil, signed for only $14 mil per for two years, but with an opt-out... which he exercised and then resigned for $25 mil per over the next three. 

So $25 million per year was established as market value for a bonafide starting pitcher.

But Breslow and Co. stole Gio for appx. $19 mil per -- what a coop, what savings for Big Market Boston! 

New York and LA are jealous. The Yankees probably spend the $6 million dollar difference on barbers, and the Dodgers blow it on front row seats at Hollywood Awards shows.

Was it any better looking at a pitcher's final 2-3 weeks of a season and signing him to $21M/1? (Buehler)

Avoiding long term big SP'er signings nets guys like we get, over and over. Sure, some teams strike gold on these types of signings, but the odds are not great.

BTW, the odds are not great on large and long FA SP'er signing, too.