Craig Breslow: CBO of the Red Sox

[moonslav59]

31 minutes ago, notin said:

I don’t  mind not fixing the outfield logjam.  I would have been more upset if they cleared a path for Anthony and he struggled.  They can still clear the logjam up; they would find it harder to undo a trade if things didn’t work out…

Even trading one starting OF'er leaves more than Anthony as reserves for "what ifs..."

Let's say we trade Abreu:

LF: Duran, Refsnyder, Yoshida, Garcia

CF: Rafaela (Duran or Anthony,) Campbell, Garcia

RF: Anthony (Rafaela) Refsnyder, Garcia

This looks deeper than almost very other team in MLB, right now.

I think we gotta trade an OF'er by the deadline, when needs are so high for some contending teams with a gaping hole in the OF. Take advantage of the overpay setting.

[moonslav59]

17 hours ago, Maxbialystock said:

I excoriated Breslow over the Sale deal, but at the same time  believed JH did in fact want to go in a different direction by hiring Breslow despite his having no CBO experience.  

Had Bello pitched like this, last year, we'd have still been upset with how the trade worked out, but the logic behind freeing up some money to do better than the Kluber's and Richard's of the world would have seemed a bit more apparent.

BTW, Gio is pitching, right now, while Sale is on the IL. Imagine the different conversation, if 2025 was 2024. (Okay, Grissom would still suck, but...)

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, notin said:

I believe it was from the Rangers.  The rumor was they were willing to take the entirety of the contract, but not give back anything of value in return.  I heard no names on the player(s) coming back.  Presumably some Stan Papi types…

When was the offer made, though?  I heard about Bloom turning down an offer like that, but we're talking about the 2023-2024 offseason here. 

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

When was the offer made, though?  I heard about Bloom turning down an offer like that, but we're talking about the 2023-2024 offseason here. 

This was '22 deadline. 

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

This was '22 deadline. 

Right, so it's irrelevant to the discussion.

[notin]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Had Bello pitched like this, last year, we'd have still been upset with how the trade worked out, but the logic behind freeing up some money to do better than the Kluber's and Richard's of the world would have seemed a bit more apparent.

BTW, Gio is pitching, right now, while Sale is on the IL. Imagine the different conversation, if 2025 was 2024. (Okay, Grissom would still suck, but...)

To be fair, Garrett Richards was signed in 2021, two years before Sale was traded.  Sale’s salary was not removed to accommodate him as they were teammates…

[notin]

16 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Right, so it's irrelevant to the discussion.

Why is it irrelevant?  They had an offer to move his whole contract, which had even more money at that time. Right?

[notin]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Even trading one starting OF'er leaves more than Anthony as reserves for "what ifs..."

Let's say we trade Abreu:

LF: Duran, Refsnyder, Yoshida, Garcia

CF: Rafaela (Duran or Anthony,) Campbell, Garcia

RF: Anthony (Rafaela) Refsnyder, Garcia

This looks deeper than almost very other team in MLB, right now.

I think we gotta trade an OF'er by the deadline, when needs are so high for some contending teams with a gaping hole in the OF. Take advantage of the overpay setting.

No it doesn’t.  
 

It puts the onus on Anthony.  Let’s not start pretending Password was an equally viable starting option just yet.  And Refsnyder? If Anthony struggled like Campbell did, do you want Refsnyder and his very limited skill set out there every day?

They reportedly shipped Abreu, which is looking like a questionable move on their part as well as on every team that passed on him.  And Abreu is probably worth more now.

Not sure why depth is considered a problem by so many fans.  

I’d rather they held off on moving an OF.  Aren’t they better off with 4 starting OFs than they would be with two?
 

 

[moonslav59]

20 minutes ago, notin said:

To be fair, Garrett Richards was signed in 2021, two years before Sale was traded.  Sale’s salary was not removed to accommodate him as they were teammates…

My point was that the going rate for SP'er additions has been $5-10M per starter from 2020 to the Gio, then Buehler signings. Trading Sale added about $10M to the winter SP'er budget, and that's about the difference between $10M/1 and $19M x 2.

I think the Sale trade was directly linked to the  Gio signing, and many felt the same way, at the time. Many were upset we stopped with Gio, including Bell and me.

I'm thinking had we not traded Sale, we's have signed just a $5-10M/1 SP'er, once again.

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

My point was that the going rate for SP'er additions has been $5-10M per starter from 2020 to the Gio, then Buehler signings. Trading Sale added about $10M to the winter SP'er budget, and that's about the difference between $10M/1 and $19M x 2.

I think the Sale trade was directly linked to the  Gio signing, and many felt the same way, at the time. Many were upset we stopped with Gio, including Bell and me.

I'm thinking had we not traded Sale, we's have signed just a $5-10M/1 SP'er, once again.

Woodruff 2/20 

[Bellhorn04]

35 minutes ago, notin said:

Why is it irrelevant?  They had an offer to move his whole contract, which had even more money at that time. Right?

I think it was reported that turning down the trade was one of the things Sox ownership was unhappy with Bloom about. 

In any case, the connection of that to the Red Sox 2023-2024 offseason moves and their 2024 payroll budget eludes me.  We're talking about a brand new front office with Breslow in place.

All I've ever argued is that it smells like Breslow was working with a very tight budget, which led him to explore ways in which to move payroll off the books, and that's the main reason this move happened.  Here was a team with an obvious desperate need for an upgrade in the rotation, and what Breslow in effect did was make a lateral move.  I assume they thought the upgrade would come from the wizardry of Andrew Bailey.

What I'm really doing is giving Breslow an excuse for his failure to upgrade.   

  

[drewski6]

5 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I think it was reported that turning down the trade was one of the things Sox ownership was unhappy with Bloom about. 

In any case, the connection of that to the Red Sox 2023-2024 offseason moves and their 2024 payroll budget eludes me.  We're talking about a brand new front office with Breslow in place.

All I've ever argued is that it smells like Breslow was working with a very tight budget, which led him to explore ways in which to move payroll off the books, and that's the main reason this move happened.  Here was a team with an obvious desperate need for an upgrade in the rotation, and what Breslow in effect did was make a lateral move.  I assume they thought the upgrade would come from the wizardry of Andrew Bailey.

What I'm really doing is giving Breslow an excuse for his failure to upgrade.   

  

Multiple agents came forward and said "the sox have stated they really like my client, but neeed to move money before bidding"

Actually happened.

But regarding the current debate: it was a mixture of both.  It wasnt 100% moving some money to sign a SP, but it wasnt 0% either.  They thought, at the time, they were killing 2 birds with one stone.  Fixing 2B (Grissom) and moving out money to sign a different pitcher.  

[mvp 78]

38 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Multiple agents came forward and said "the sox have stated they really like my client, but neeed to move money before bidding"

I felt the same way about visiting Fenway this year. I opted for the New England Aquarium instead. At least at the Aquarium, I know the same turtle will be there year after year and am not just rooting for laundry. https://www.neaq.org/animal/green-sea-turtle/ 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

40 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I felt the same way about visiting Fenway this year. I opted for the New England Aquarium instead. At least at the Aquarium, I know the same turtle will be there year after year and am not just rooting for laundry. https://www.neaq.org/animal/green-sea-turtle/ 

Yes -- no reporpoising of fun there... forever the place for boys, girls, and manatees.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I think it was reported that turning down the trade was one of the things Sox ownership was unhappy with Bloom about. 

In any case, the connection of that to the Red Sox 2023-2024 offseason moves and their 2024 payroll budget eludes me.  We're talking about a brand new front office with Breslow in place.

All I've ever argued is that it smells like Breslow was working with a very tight budget, which led him to explore ways in which to move payroll off the books, and that's the main reason this move happened.  Here was a team with an obvious desperate need for an upgrade in the rotation, and what Breslow in effect did was make a lateral move.  I assume they thought the upgrade would come from the wizardry of Andrew Bailey.

What I'm really doing is giving Breslow an excuse for his failure to upgrade.   

  

It makes sense that when Bloom failed to trade Sale, they may have pressure Brez to do it, or move other high salaries.

Even clearing some cash from Sale, still left Brez with a limited budget. The Devers extension was set to kick in, so I won't count that as "new spending," but it was likely part of a tightening of the winter spending of '23-'24. (They also lost some salary by shedding Verdugo & others.)

$19.5M x 2 Giolito

$7M/1 O'Neill trade

$5M x 2 Hendriks

$2M x 1 Joely

We can bitch about teh "failure to upgrade," but what can you do with about $33M AAV, when you had a losing season, then subtracted Sale, Dugo and others?

had Gio pitched like this in 2024, we'd say he did a pretty good job with $33M, despite Henriks & Joely's lack of help.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

had Gio pitched like this in 2024, we'd say he did a pretty good job with $33M, despite Henriks & Joely's lack of help.

Not me -- because of that dumb Boston contract, he'd already be a Dodger by now, after opting out and getting a raise that the Red Sox obviously weren't prepared to match two winters ago.

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Not me -- because of that dumb Boston contract, he'd already be a Dodger by now, after opting out and getting a raise that the Red Sox obviously weren't prepared to match two winters ago.

Huh?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Huh?

Giolito's contract. I'm glad he's doing well this summer, but if he didn't blow out his elbow two years ago and instead excelled then, there's a good chance he'd be dealing for LA or NY right now. 

That contract was structured just to get the Sox through yet another Bridge Year -- if Gio was good enough to opt out, he'd be getting market value elsewhere by now. Luckily, his comeback overlaps with the new, energetic Young Sox! 

[drewski6]

4 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Giolito's contract. I'm glad he's doing well this summer, but if he didn't blow out his elbow two years ago and instead excelled then, there's a good chance he'd be dealing for LA or NY right now. 

That contract was structured just to get the Sox through yet another Bridge Year -- if Gio was good enough to opt out, he'd be getting market value elsewhere by now. Luckily, his comeback overlaps with the new, energetic Young Sox! 

Thank you!  Can we stop with these 0 upside contracts?  Best case scenario, he opts out!! Yippeee!!

I get the Bregman one.  Get him in the door. Also it was late free agency so really wanted him to sign the dotted line.  But too many of these! 

Remember the Lackey contract, 5 yrs, if you get TJ at any point, we get a year added at minimum.  Not these days , 3 yr contracts with an opt out after each one

[drewski6]

Maybe the sox knew that wed be better this year than last and that if he blew his arm out last, making this the year - maybe that was the plan all along.

Of course, I dont think Breslow has a time machine or crystal ball, so Im joking.  I guess its a bit harder to call the contract dumb right now because Im glad hes here right now. But still, generally, speaking , Id love for them to stop with these type of deals. Use to be if a guy kills it in yr 1 of a 3-4 yr deal, woohoo, now you guy that for way cheaper than hed be if he were to be a FA after the bust out.  Now its just a series of 1 yr deals.  Or too many series of 1 yr deals, obvs not everyone is on a 1 yr deal

[notin]

4 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Woodruff 2/20 

That would have been as big of a waste as Buehler…

[notin]

49 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Giolito's contract. I'm glad he's doing well this summer, but if he didn't blow out his elbow two years ago and instead excelled then, there's a good chance he'd be dealing for LA or NY right now. 

That contract was structured just to get the Sox through yet another Bridge Year -- if Gio was good enough to opt out, he'd be getting market value elsewhere by now. Luckily, his comeback overlaps with the new, energetic Young Sox! 

When was that first Bridge Year?

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

51 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Thank you!  Can we stop with these 0 upside contracts?  Best case scenario, he opts out!! Yippeee!!

I get the Bregman one.  Get him in the door. Also it was late free agency so really wanted him to sign the dotted line.  But too many of these! 

Remember the Lackey contract, 5 yrs, if you get TJ at any point, we get a year added at minimum.  Not these days , 3 yr contracts with an opt out after each one

I believe Bregman stays a Sox for the 3 years.

Based on his couple of quad injuries over the last few years, I doubt he's gonna get the long term deal he's looking for.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Giolito's contract. I'm glad he's doing well this summer, but if he didn't blow out his elbow two years ago and instead excelled then, there's a good chance he'd be dealing for LA or NY right now. 

That contract was structured just to get the Sox through yet another Bridge Year -- if Gio was good enough to opt out, he'd be getting market value elsewhere by now. Luckily, his comeback overlaps with the new, energetic Young Sox! 

You mean 1 year ago, right? Gio was injured, last year, after we signed him and before the 2024 season even started. He pitched over 161 IP, each year from 2021 to 2023. He didn't miss a start in 2020 and has 29+ starts in 2018 and 2019. He was as dependable as anyone, before we signed him. I think that was the idea in replacing the highly undependable Sale with him.

Had he pitched well in 2024, we wouldn't have been as upset over the Sale trade, since we viewed the money saved as used for Gio.

Yes, he'd have opted out after 2024, if he pitched like this, last year, but that doesn't change how we'd view Brez's 2024 budget spending. Plus, we'd have had $19M more to spend this year, and might have signed Fried not Buehler, instead.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

Thank you!  Can we stop with these 0 upside contracts?  Best case scenario, he opts out!! Yippeee!!

Like Paxton, Hendriks and now Sandoval?

The one year deals like Perez I & II, Richards, Kluber, Wacha, Hill and now Buehler fit the bill.

Yes, the Gio signing could have been 1 year, if he pitched like this, last year. I get your point, and I agree.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

45 minutes ago, notin said:

When was that first Bridge Year?

2010 was the year Theo Epstein coined the phrase. The Sox only won 89 games that season and came in 3rd place, after winning 93 or more and finishing at least 2nd in seven of the previous eight years.

After 2010, the bridge was sturdy enough to chase Adrian Beltre and his 7.8 WAR off to Texas, but new Sox Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez somehow led a 90-win team to miss the playoffs in the final inning of the final game of the regular season.

This decade saw the '21 Red Sox win 92 and make serious noise in October, but rickety bridges have been in disrepair ever since Franchy Cordero put his foot through a slat over the gorge of the AL East while trying to play outfield at first base.

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

14 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

2010 was the year Theo Epstein coined the phrase. The Sox only won 89 games that season and came in 3rd place, after winning 93 or more and finishing at least 2nd in seven of the previous eight years.

After 2010, the bridge was sturdy enough to chase Adrian Beltre and his 7.8 WAR off to Texas, but new Sox Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez somehow led a 90-win team to miss the playoffs in the final inning of the final game of the regular season.

This decade saw the '21 Red Sox win 92 and make serious noise in October, but rickety bridges have been in disrepair ever since Franchy Cordero put his foot through a slat over the gorge of the AL East while trying to play outfield at first base.

 

2013 was widely viewed as a bridge year, when it began.

[mvp 78]

18 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I think it was reported that turning down the trade was one of the things Sox ownership was unhappy with Bloom about. 

In general, it was the constant inability to make decisive moves that led to his ouster. I think they liked the direction he was pushing the org, but he just hemmed and hawed too much with the MLB roster for their liking. 

[drewski6]

14 hours ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

I believe Bregman stays a Sox for the 3 years.

Based on his couple of quad injuries over the last few years, I doubt he's gonna get the long term deal he's looking for.

I disagree.  I think hes going to stay a red sox, but I think he forces them to rip up the contract after he wins a disputed World Series MVP

We'll all here be on the same page here: "They very rarely give these awards to a pitcher, and I think Bregman deserved it, and I have no issue with him getting it....He was awesome. PAY THAT MAN. But I would have given it to Crochet, personally.  He started 3 games and closed another!"

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, drewski6 said:

I disagree.  I think hes going to stay a red sox, but I think he forces them to rip up the contract after he wins a disputed World Series MVP

We'll all here be on the same page here: "They very rarely give these awards to a pitcher, and I think Bregman deserved it, and I have no issue with him getting it....He was awesome. PAY THAT MAN. But I would have given it to Crochet, personally.  He started 3 games and closed another!"

Oh man, it's going to be DISPUTED?!?!? I don't like that.