Red Sox: Off Season 2024-2025

[mvp 78]

33 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

All this talk about the offseason is just likely ANOTHER waste of time. I expect the Sox to add a reliever or 2 and some SP DEPTH [ Pivetta ?]  likely on a short term deal. They will probably also add a RH bat to replace O'neill but in the end it will all be underwhelming.

Feel free to ignore this thread then.

[Old Red]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

You have a higher threshold for expensive than me, and probably most MLB owners, many of whom shed players making $5mill or less as cost-cutting moves…

Like I said I was shocked that the Red Sox spent as much as they did on Gio. Anything over $10M is high for the Red Sox to spend, but $20M doesn’t get you what it used to.

[Old Red]

21 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Houston would want more than Casas and Abreu.

Hunter Brown is an ace and pre-arb.

What constitutes an Ace these days?

[notin]

8 minutes ago, Old Red said:

What constitutes an Ace these days?

Pitching like Hunter Brown…

[Old Red]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

Pitching like Hunter Brown…

Stats?

[Randy Red Sox]

18 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Feel free to ignore this thread then.

it is too entertaining to ignore.  but it is pretty much like the past few offseason have been

[notin]

11 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Like I said I was shocked that the Red Sox spent as much as they did on Gio. Anything over $10M is high for the Red Sox to spend, but $20M doesn’t get you what it used to.

Yes, there was a time when an 8 year $160 mill contract got you Manny Ramirez.  Nowadays, it gets you Brandon Nimmo.

I’d be surprised if the Sox signed any SP beyond maybe some MiLB depth deals.  Maybe some relievers and acquire a SP via trade.  Most likely Abreu, but i wouldn’t eliminate the possibility of Duran…

[notin]

1 minute ago, Old Red said:

Stats?

Your Google broken?

[Randy Red Sox]

1 hour ago, notin said:

They signed one last year…

at today's prices that was not really all that expensive.

[Randy Red Sox]

49 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Houston would want more than Casas and Abreu.

Hunter Brown is an ace and pre-arb.

and why in the hell would they be looking to deal Brown anyway?

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, notin said:

Pitching like Hunter Brown…

T25th in fWAR is an ace to me. The guy has nasty stuff and is for real. I've seen him pitch a few times. It's not just stats. 

As for what it costs to get good FA pitchers, last winter may have been a "lucky" winter, but several pitchers with an AAV below or near Gio's did very well and look to continue being good.

18.5M x 2 Stroman 1.0 fWAR (119th)

$16M x 2 Wacha 3.3 fWAR (25th)

$16M x 1 Montas 1.4 fWAR (93rd)

15.0 x 3 Lugo 4.7 fWAR (6th)

14.0 x 2 Manaea 2.8 fWAR (43rd)

14.0 x 1 Flaherty 3.2 fWAR (28th)

13.25 x 4 Imanaga 3.0 (35th)

13.0 x 1 Severino 2.1  (61st)

$7.5M x 2 Fedde 3.4 fWAR (22nd)

Only 10 pitchers signed for between $13M and $19.5M AAV: only Gio, Gibson and Stroman came up short. That was a 70% hit rate. (80%, if you count Stroman as a success, which seems semi-plausible.)

As a reference, our 2nd best SP'er was at 1.9 (Crawford at 76th) and Pivetta as at 1.8 (77th)

I doubt we see that success in 2025 in this price range, and maybe their success will only act to drive up the price for mid-range signings, but it is possible to hit in this range. The Sox have sucked so badly, in this range and lower, that we tend to think it's a league wide trend. It was not in 2024.

 

[Old Red]

24 minutes ago, notin said:

Your Google broken?

No, but I’m not asking what Brown’s stats are, but what would the stats look like for an ace these days.

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

and why in the hell would they be looking to deal Brown anyway?

They won't. I admitted that. My continued talk was directed to the poster who thinks BOS would want more than Casas and Abreu.

Hunter Brown is an ace, IMO.

[Old Red]

25 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

They won't. I admitted that. My continued talk was directed to the poster who thinks BOS would want more than Casas and Abreu.

Hunter Brown is an ace, IMO.

Then why would you say to call Houston in the first place?🙈🤭

[Bellhorn04]

55 minutes ago, Old Red said:

What constitutes an Ace these days?

My definition of an Ace, based on who most fans seem to think is an ace, is a pitcher who has some chance of being a Hall of Famer one day.  

I know that sounds silly, but I think it's also pretty accurate.

[moonslav59]

58 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Feel free to ignore this thread then.

Speculation just is not some poster's "thing." I get that. 

We all know there is a fraction of a percent anything we suggest will come true. Even similar trades seldom come true.

For some, it's fun to come up with ideas to hopefully improve the team. Listening to feedback is also part of the fun, for some of us. 

I think I've been thinking of trades since I was a teen. Call it nuts or pointless. It doesn't bother me.

I see it as more pointless to just blast management and keep saying, "They will never do anything like this" to try and improve the team, and offer no constructive and specific ideas on how it might be done. Generalities are equally pointless, if you truly believe nothing will change.

[Larry Cook]

The athletic recommends prying the cardinals closer away  for the prospects that hang’em Chaim helped acquire 

[notin]

Hunter Brown isn’t getting traded.  The Astros still own the AL West and very likely expect to compete and win another pennant next year.  Their alleged pitching depth is already depleted, since both Cristian Javier and Luis Garcia required TJ last season and are both likely out until August at the earliest.  Plus they have Lance McCullers, who can materialize on the IL if you say his name 3 times in a row.  And Framber Valdez, who has one year before free agency, which probably makes him more available than Brown.

Fans in Houston might be claiming the dynasty is over.  Doubtful the Astros themselves feel that way…

[Old Red]

22 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Speculation just is not some poster's "thing." I get that. 

We all know there is a fraction of a percent anything we suggest will come true. Even similar trades seldom come true.

For some, it's fun to come up with ideas to hopefully improve the team. Listening to feedback is also part of the fun, for some of us. 

I think I've been thinking of trades since I was a teen. Call it nuts or pointless. It doesn't bother me.

I see it as more pointless to just blast management and keep saying, "They will never do anything like this" to try and improve the team, and offer no constructive and specific ideas on how it might be done. Generalities are equally pointless, if you truly believe nothing will change.

Words are meaningless, and actions are what counts the most. Management can say full throttle, and then when they don’t live up to perceived expectations some call out sham, sham, sham, which is blasting management. Not constructive at all, and pretty much pointless. That we agree on.

[notin]

8 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

My definition of an Ace, based on who most fans seem to think is an ace, is a pitcher who has some chance of being a Hall of Famer one day.  

I know that sounds silly, but I think it's also pretty accurate.

It’s a definition.  I’ll honor it.  Merely having one places you in a different class than most who use the term..

[Old Red]

9 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

My definition of an Ace, based on who most fans seem to think is an ace, is a pitcher who has some chance of being a Hall of Famer one day.  

I know that sounds silly, but I think it's also pretty accurate.

There doesn’t seem to be many around these days.

[notin]

6 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

The athletic recommends prying the cardinals closer away  for the prospects that hang’em Chaim helped acquire 

I wouldn’t deal the top 4 for him.  But other than them, I’d listen.  Did they name any names?

[Larry Cook]

3 minutes ago, notin said:

I wouldn’t deal the top 4 for him.  But other than them, I’d listen.  Did they name any names?

Perales, blaze and Elmer 

[Bellhorn04]

2 minutes ago, Old Red said:

There doesn’t seem to be many around these days.

There never were that many, though.  With the Red Sox over the last 50 years we're talking Tiant, Eckersley, Clemens, Pedro, Schilling, Price, Sale...like I say, just think of the guys with HOF credentials or close to it.

Bring up names like Beckett and Lester and that's when the arguments start...     

[notin]

4 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Perales, blaze and Elmer 

I see the logic, but Perales is down with TJ.  That might temper interest in him somewhat…

[Old Red]

5 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

There never were that many, though.  With the Red Sox over the last 50 years we're talking Tiant, Eckersley, Clemens, Pedro, Schilling, Price, Sale...like I say, just think of the guys with HOF credentials or close to it.

Bring up names like Beckett and Lester and that's when the arguments start...     

Ah Lester. Henry wouldn’t pay him, and then turned around, and paid twice as much for Price.

[moonslav59]

41 minutes ago, notin said:

Hunter Brown isn’t getting traded.  The Astros still own the AL West and very likely expect to compete and win another pennant next year.  Their alleged pitching depth is already depleted, since both Cristian Javier and Luis Garcia required TJ last season and are both likely out until August at the earliest.  Plus they have Lance McCullers, who can materialize on the IL if you say his name 3 times in a row.  And Framber Valdez, who has one year before free agency, which probably makes him more available than Brown.

Fans in Houston might be claiming the dynasty is over.  Doubtful the Astros themselves feel that way…

There is a lot of talk, down here, about the team not spending on keeping everyone: Bregman, Tucker and Framber, to name 3. In the past, they had players ready to step in to replace departing stars, especially with homegrown pitchers. They were able to not miss a beat, when they lost Springer, Cole, Correa, Morton, Keuchel, Verlander and a few others. Now, they already have some big holes with nobody in sight. Adding more holes by letting one or two of those big 3 go, will likely hurt more than those others lost.

They still seem to keep adding homegrown pitchers, just about every year. This year, they had a ton of SP'ers on the IL for all or almost all of the season: Verlander, McCullers. Javier, Garcia, Urquiddy and France.

Hunter Brown starts 30 games 3.49 (3.58 FIP)

Ronel Blanco starts 29 at 2.80/4.15

Spencer Arrighetti starts 28 at 4.53/4.18

They trade for Kikuchi and the team goes 9-1 in his starts.

They have a gaping hole at 1B (.651 OPS) and Pena dropped off on O at SS (.700 team OPS at SS,) but he's a plus defender. Their OF had a .721 OPS, but Tucker missed much of the season. Dubon and Myers played a lot of OF and were under .660. McCormick was the #4 OF'er at .576.

If they spend to fix 1B and OF, then they can't afford to keep 2 of the big 3, I mentioned.

[notin]

1 hour ago, Larry Cook said:

Perales, blaze and Elmer 

I looked it up on BTV.

Helsley has a surplus value of 15.6

Jordan is 2.0.  ERC is 3.2.  Perales is 5.7.

It’s not ridiculous on their model.  But with Perales having TJ, I think that’s a problem.

However if the Sox send Franklin Arias (10.5) instead, it works out much better on the BTV model and becomes a more tempting offer.

 

Of course I never looked at Helsley’s money and years, which might be off-putting…

[moonslav59]

If STL is really looking at re-tooling, this winter, dumping Arenado and Sonny Gray's salaries might be something they'd like to start with.

Gray is owed $65M/2 with a $25M x 2 CBT hit, and unless we plan on getting close to the line, this might not matter.

Arenado is owed $52M/3 with a $25.5M CBT hit. (He has differed money, and I think COL pays some.)

I know a team looking to retool does not want a guy like Yoshida and his $54M/3 still owed, but if they are able to shed $117M to add $54M, maybe whatever we add to the package makes them say yes.

Would you give Casas and Yoshida for those two? Maybe add Fitts, Priester or Dobbins. Throw in DHam or Wink, if they want. Maybe Casas, Abreu and Yoshida?

We'd get a quality SP'er for 2 years, a huge upgrade on 3B defense and push Devers to 1B and or DH. Our cost would be $63M over 3 years. The AAV hit would be $50.5M - $18M for a total of $32.5M for year 1 & 2. In year 3, Gray drops off and the Tax hit is just $7M more for Arenado over Yoshida.

It might take Yoshida + Mayer. I'm not sure about that one.

[notin]

3 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

The athletic recommends prying the cardinals closer away  for the prospects that hang’em Chaim helped acquire 

Worth noting, Helsley is a free agent after 2025…