A Realistic View at 2024: Part III

[Duran Is The Man]

Just now, moonslav59 said:

We'd be about 10th, if 3-4 teams hadn't raised their budget's a lot, but that is not to say that JH is not a big reason we are in the middle 10. I'd say JH is more responsible, but not 100%.

According to Steve the Ump, we were 6ht in '22 at $195M. #10 was TOR at $168M. To be top 10 in 2023, JH would have had to spend $180.9M. He spent $175.7M (about $5M short.) Had JH stayed the same in '23, we'd have been 9th, but so many teams jumped their spending, by a lot.

Let me add, the $15M uptick in spending from the playoff team of 2021 is largely forgotten, and that year, we dropped from 3rd to 6th. That was certainly not JH's fault.

Again, I'm not defending him, at all, but other GMs have gone wild on spending.

gone wild or adjusted to changing market conditions? it looks like your defending his cheapness.

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

We'd be about 10th, if 3-4 teams hadn't raised their budget's a lot

01: 2nd

02: 2nd

03: 6th

04: 2nd

05: 2nd

06: 2nd

07: 2nd

08: 4th

09: 4th

10: 2nd

11: 3rd

12: 3rd

13: 4th

14: 4th

15: 3rd

16: 3rd

17: 3rd

18: 1st

19: 1st

20: 3rd

21: 3rd

How can you give ownership cover and say "well other teams raised their payrolls a lot." This didn't happen magically. Henry and Co pulled money out of payroll and applied it elsewhere. The Sox still charge at the top of the market for tickets. They still own their own network and have a ton of real estate in the area. If they aren't putting $$$ back into payroll, it's by choice! 10th isn't good enough. We don't treat this team like a midmarket! We aren't charged like a midmarket! If they continue to artificially deflate payroll, they will see more and more fans walk away. They say the end goal is October baseball and winning the division. It can't be if they aren't going to legitimately invest in the MLB team. The only reason they won 4 WS was because they combined a high payroll with some home grown talent. They need to do both going forward. 

[Old Red]

19 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

We'd be about 10th, if 3-4 teams hadn't raised their budget's a lot, but that is not to say that JH is not a big reason we are in the middle 10. I'd say JH is more responsible, but not 100%.

According to Steve the Ump, we were 6ht in '22 at $195M. #10 was TOR at $168M. To be top 10 in 2023, JH would have had to spend $180.9M. He spent $175.7M (about $5M short.) Had JH stayed the same in '23, we'd have been 9th, but so many teams jumped their spending, by a lot.

Let me add, the $15M uptick in spending from the playoff team of 2021 is largely forgotten, and that year, we dropped from 3rd to 6th. That was certainly not JH's fault.

Again, I'm not defending him, at all, but other GMs have gone wild on spending.

Every time you say you are not defending someone, which is often you are always defending someone.🙈🤭

[Old Red]

9 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

01: 2nd

02: 2nd

03: 6th

04: 2nd

05: 2nd

06: 2nd

07: 2nd

08: 4th

09: 4th

10: 2nd

11: 3rd

12: 3rd

13: 4th

14: 4th

15: 3rd

16: 3rd

17: 3rd

18: 1st

19: 1st

20: 3rd

21: 3rd

How can you give ownership cover and say "well other teams raised their payrolls a lot." This didn't happen magically. Henry and Co pulled money out of payroll and applied it elsewhere. The Sox still charge at the top of the market for tickets. They still own their own network and have a ton of real estate in the area. If they aren't putting $$$ back into payroll, it's by choice! 10th isn't good enough. We don't treat this team like a midmarket! We aren't charged like a midmarket! If they continue to artificially deflate payroll, they will see more and more fans walk away. They say the end goal is October baseball and winning the division. It can't be if they aren't going to legitimately invest in the MLB team. The only reason they won 4 WS was because they combined a high payroll with some home grown talent. They need to do both going forward. 

Like one fan said I can stand the Red Sox not being good, but I can’t stand the Red Sox not trying to get better. They have said the end goal is playing baseball in October, but haven’t done so for three years now.

[moonslav59]

14 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

How can you give ownership cover and say "well other teams raised their payrolls a lot." This didn't happen magically. Henry and Co pulled money out of payroll and applied it elsewhere. The Sox still charge at the top of the market for tickets. They still own their own network and have a ton of real estate in the area. If they aren't putting $$$ back into payroll, it's by choice! 10th isn't good enough. We don't treat this team like a midmarket! We aren't charged like a midmarket! If they continue to artificially deflate payroll, they will see more and more fans walk away. They say the end goal is October baseball and winning the division. It can't be if they aren't going to legitimately invest in the MLB team. The only reason they won 4 WS was because they combined a high payroll with some home grown talent. They need to do both going forward. 

I know we need to spend more.

I know JH is largely to blame for our drop in budget rankings.

Pointing out other GMs made massive gains in spending, since 2021 is not making an excuse. It is just presenting facts. 

Now, there were times, in the past, that JH sharply increased spending, while a few others did, too, but the recent big upticks in spending by more than just the usual top 5-6 teams did factor into our drop in ranking.

It's possible to blame JH for not spending like he used to or like he should, but not deny the fact that others started spending way more than ever, at the same time. Presenting facts that show this is not defending anyone.

Here are just a few:

In 2021, we were 3rd at $180M...

NYM (8th in '21 at $167M) They are at $301M, now. 

PHI was 5th at $174M and is now at $236M

SDP was 6th at $172M and went to $236M in 2023.

A better example might be the Cards, who went from 12th at $135M to 11th at $165M in '24. No doubt, we could have cut less and stayed above them, but going up from 135 to 165  in 3 years is a 22% increase. That's not "nutty" but it did contribute to us falling in the rankings.

[mvp 78]

Rafaela and Abreu not included in BA's All Rookie team:

 

[mvp 78]

Jarren Duran was named All-MLB 2nd Team for 2024.

[sk7326]

On 9/30/2024 at 2:36 PM, Duran Is The Man said:

my question is why the f*** is the budget so low? is Henry having problems with cash flow? is he saving up to buy Switzerland? does he detest players getting market value for their abilities? the ******* is a gazillionaire and he's acting like he's down to his last hundred bucks.

I am not defending ownership - but when people talk about spending money, what are they saying?  I'd like a bigger payroll, but I don't know what free agents were going to save the world in 2023 and 2024.  If management thought the team was not close enough in terms of existing talent to go big in free agency, I can at least get the rationale.  If management likes the young talent on the team and feel like they are in a position to add big free agents to fill in gaps, perhaps they will open the wallet.  

Their big splash of course was Story (in free agency) which has gone very badly, though almost all of it is pure, straight up, uncut bad luck. 

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, sk7326 said:

I am not defending ownership - but when people talk about spending money, what are they saying?  I'd like a bigger payroll, but I don't know what free agents were going to save the world in 2023 and 2024.  If management thought the team was not close enough in terms of existing talent to go big in free agency, I can at least get the rationale.  If management likes the young talent on the team and feel like they are in a position to add big free agents to fill in gaps, perhaps they will open the wallet.  

Their big splash of course was Story (in free agency) which has gone very badly, though almost all of it is pure, straight up, uncut bad luck. 

Go back in time and redo '23 and '24 with reasonable moves:

Sign Swanson SS 7/180, move Story to 2B (a move we discussed on here)

Sign Eflin or Eovaldi SP 3/60 

Sign Wacha 1/12

Sign Kenly/Martin/Duvall/Turner/don't sign Masa/don't sign Kluber

Sign Wacha SP 2/36

Sign Teoscar LF 3/48

Sign Flaherty SP 1/15

Does this turn the Sox into the division leaders? No, but it keeps them closer to the playoffs IMO. 

 

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Go back in time and redo '23 and '24 with reasonable moves:

Sign Swanson SS 7/180, move Story to 2B (a move we discussed on here)

Sign Eflin or Eovaldi SP 3/60 

Sign Wacha 1/12

Sign Kenly/Martin/Duvall/Turner/don't sign Masa/don't sign Kluber

Sign Wacha SP 2/36

Sign Teoscar LF 3/48

Sign Flaherty SP 1/15

Does this turn the Sox into the division leaders? No, but it keeps them closer to the playoffs IMO. 

 

The story of the last 3 seasons was Half Measures.

[mvp 78]

11 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The story of the last 3 seasons was Half Measures.

The Heaping Teaspoons! 

[FredLynn]

24 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The story of the last 3 seasons was Half Measures.

Yeah, but THIS season we are going FULL THROTTLE! Nothing to worry about.

[Larry Cook]

I agree with Randy that the budget is set at slightly  under 200 mm for 2025! 
I think bres-slow goes hard after fried and then  back to dumpster diving or trades to fill in the holes! 
the key is dancing with Arizona for a Montgomery-yoshida swap! 

[sk7326]

22 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Go back in time and redo '23 and '24 with reasonable moves:

Sign Swanson SS 7/180, move Story to 2B (a move we discussed on here)

Sign Eflin or Eovaldi SP 3/60 

Sign Wacha 1/12

Sign Kenly/Martin/Duvall/Turner/don't sign Masa/don't sign Kluber

Sign Wacha SP 2/36

Sign Teoscar LF 3/48

Sign Flaherty SP 1/15

Does this turn the Sox into the division leaders? No, but it keeps them closer to the playoffs IMO. 

 

Oh this all makes sense.  I think management could have pushed harder.  What I was arguing is that if they wanted to leave a runway for younger players and whatnot, fine.  At SOME POINT you have to be close enough to want to make a big splash competitively.  

I was very much for keeping Eovaldi, looking at more starters like Flahrety.  That said, they did make a starter move but again, the player did get struck by lightning.  

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, sk7326 said:

Oh this all makes sense.  I think management could have pushed harder.  What I was arguing is that if they wanted to leave a runway for younger players and whatnot, fine.  At SOME POINT you have to be close enough to want to make a big splash competitively.  

I was very much for keeping Eovaldi, looking at more starters like Flahrety.  That said, they did make a starter move but again, the player did get struck by lightning.  

They made a move for a guy with an "uneven" track record to put it nicely. 

[sk7326]

34 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

They made a move for a guy with an "uneven" track record to put it nicely. 

Oh yeah - that said, Jack Flahrety was basically unplayably bad for the Orioles ... dem's the breaks I guess. 

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, sk7326 said:

Oh yeah - that said, Jack Flahrety was basically unplayably bad for the Orioles ... dem's the breaks I guess. 

And if they got Gio on a 1 year offer like Flaherty signed? Fine!

[Larry Cook]

Is giolito ready to go by opening day???

[mvp 78]

14 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Is giolito ready to go by opening day???

He believes so. I say no. 

[moonslav59]

On 11/18/2024 at 9:45 AM, mvp 78 said:

Go back in time and redo '23 and '24 with reasonable moves:

Sign Swanson SS 7/180, move Story to 2B (a move we discussed on here)

Sign Eflin or Eovaldi SP 3/60 

Sign Wacha 1/12

Sign Kenly/Martin/Duvall/Turner/don't sign Masa/don't sign Kluber

Sign Wacha SP 2/36

Sign Teoscar LF 3/48

Sign Flaherty SP 1/15

Does this turn the Sox into the division leaders? No, but it keeps them closer to the playoffs IMO. 

 

Just outbidding the Rays for Eflin and keeping Nate or Wacha around, instead of signing Masa might have snuck us into the playoffs 1-2 times.