A Realistic View at 2024: Part III

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I assume you mean what Sam said in January.

https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2024/01/red-soxs-sam-kennedy-2024-payroll-expected-to-be-lower-than-it-was-in-2023.html

That was for 2024. Where has anyone said another cut is a done deal?

[Bellhorn04]

Under Henry they've never been out of the top 10 in payroll until 2023-2024.

And no, that's not a product of other teams losing their minds.  

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

That was for 2024. Where has anyone said another cut is a done deal?

Who said they said that?

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

Opening Day Payroll:

18: 233M

19: 236M

20: 200M (prorated)

21: 180M 

22: 206M

23: 181M

24: 171M

Certainly feels like they've cut the budget! The last time they were under 170M was 2014, but they ended up within 5M of the CBT by year end. Not sure they'll get there this time. 

I’m not doubting another cut, but nobody knows it is coming. Yes, the overall trend has been downwards since 2020’s major slash. 
my point was only that we have cut the budget 2 years in a row several times. I think 3 straight would be a first. It very well could happen, or we could go over $200M and be higher than 2020, once again.

This budget cutting and restricting is horrible. When you see how few of our players are free agents to be and most are present, cutting or even keeping the budget steady is a huge letdown.

to me, the time is now. There is no excuse for not spending on 2-3 players that rate to be helpful in areas of need for 2-4 more years. We need pitching, and everyone knows it.

[mvp 78]

22 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I’m not doubting another cut, but nobody knows it is coming. Yes, the overall trend has been downwards since 2020’s major slash. 
my point was only that we have cut the budget 2 years in a row several times. I think 3 straight would be a first. It very well could happen, or we could go over $200M and be higher than 2020, once again.

This budget cutting and restricting is horrible. When you see how few of our players are free agents to be and most are present, cutting or even keeping the budget steady is a huge letdown.

to me, the time is now. There is no excuse for not spending on 2-3 players that rate to be helpful in areas of need for 2-4 more years. We need pitching, and everyone knows it.

So "the overall trend is downward" and you're "not doubting another cut" but "the time is now." 

I think you should stop fooling yourself. Wait for them to prove it to you before you actually buy into it. Weren't you the one yelling sham, but now you think they'll actually do something?!?!?

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

So "the overall trend is downward" and you're "not doubting another cut" but "the time is now." 

I think you should stop fooling yourself. Wait for them to prove it to you before you actually buy into it. Weren't you the one yelling sham, but now you think they'll actually do something?!?!?

How is it fooling myself when I have repeatedly said I have no expectations they spend more?

I merely pointed out we have never cut the budget 3 years in a row. That is a “trend,” too.

im not giving up hope, and hoping is not expecting or fooling myself.

i will not be surprised if we cut, stay the same or add spending. It’s hard to take that as kidding myself.

its not me making statements that sound like done deal spending levels. 
 

I don’t know. You don’t know. Nobody knows.

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

How is it fooling myself when I have repeatedly said I have no expectations they spend more?

I merely pointed out we have never cut the budget 3 years in a row. That is a “trend,” too.

im not giving up hope, and hoping is not expecting or fooling myself.

i will not be surprised if we cut, stay the same or add spending. It’s hard to take that as kidding myself.

its not me making statements that sound like done deal spending levels.

Who's making statements about done deal spending levels?  I think you misread something.

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Who's making statements about done deal spending levels?  I think you misread something.

Randy is 100% sure we are staying under $200. 
maybe I misread what you said, but you seemed to imply Sam’s statement about 2024 is also about 2025. No, you did not claim it’s a done deal.

i think someone else has been talking like it is a sure bet we cut. Maybe on the game threads 

[Bellhorn04]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Randy is 100% sure we are staying under $200. 
maybe I misread what you said, but you seemed to imply Sam’s statement about 2024 is also about 2025. No, you did not claim it’s a done deal.

i think someone else has been talking like it is a sure bet we cut. Maybe on the game threads 

I did not mean to imply Sam's statement was about 2025.

But I am looking forward to Sam's next statements, that's for sure. 😜

 

[mvp 78]

Just now, moonslav59 said:

Randy is 100% sure we are staying under $200. 
maybe I misread what you said, but you seemed to imply Sam’s statement about 2024 is also about 2025. No, you did not claim it’s a done deal.

i think someone else has been talking like it is a sure bet we cut. Maybe on the game threads 

I don't think anyone aside from John Henry knows. Even others in ownership (Tom Werner) don't know the status of the budget or even have much of a say anymore. 

Sam Kennedy will have some comments at 2pm about the state of the Sox and generally we take them as coming from JH, but we really are just reading tea leaves at this point. We're all just guessing. Past history probably isn't a good indicator because FSG isn't the same as it was 10-15 years ago. 

[Bellhorn04]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I don't think anyone aside from John Henry knows. Even others in ownership (Tom Werner) don't know the status of the budget or even have much of a say anymore. 

Sam Kennedy will have some comments at 2pm about the state of the Sox and generally we take them as coming from JH, but we really are just reading tea leaves at this point. We're all just guessing. Past history probably isn't a good indicator because FSG isn't the same as it was 10-15 years ago. 

No, it's much bigger and there are many more fingers in the pie.  Like RedBird Capital and their 10%. 

[moonslav59]

I’m not believing anything Sam says, unless he talks about budget cuts or strict limits.

[Bellhorn04]

Just now, moonslav59 said:

I’m not believing anything Sam says, unless he talks about budget cuts or strict limits.

He's usually good for saying something that makes everyone go WTF, so he's sort of entertaining in a weird way.  

[mvp 78]

12 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

He's usually good for saying something that makes everyone go WTF, so he's sort of entertaining in a weird way.  

He's from the Boston area and grew up a Sox fan. I think he's got that used car salesman vibe and has lost the plot. No matter what, I don't think we ever learn much from these festivities. Even when JH was on stage at the Winter Fest, there was no resolution about what the Sox would be getting going forward. All we heard was "well I've been here for two decades, I'm committed to the Sox and I've won in the past." 

[moonslav59]

It will be about actions with an emphasis on the “s” for plural actions.

significant actions.

We don’t need to add more mediocre players or depth. We need serious upgrades at 3-4 positions. Maybe 2 major additions might be enough, but anything else will be beggi g for another missed dance.

[mvp 78]

12 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

It will be about actions with an emphasis on the “s” for plural actions.

significant actions.

We don’t need to add more mediocre players or depth. We need serious upgrades at 3-4 positions. Maybe 2 major additions might be enough, but anything else will be beggi g for another missed dance.

There's like a less than 10% chance there are 2 significant additions this offseason. Likely, a significant addition would come with a significant subtraction.

[moonslav59]

14 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

There's like a less than 10% chance there are 2 significant additions this offseason. Likely, a significant addition would come with a significant subtraction.

I’m not holding my breath.

We could cut tge budget and still sign one major FA.

We could make one big trade involving a prospect plus maybe Abreu and DHam to add another major piece, without subtracting duplicated values 

The ability is there. The acting on it is highly in doubt.

[Hugh2]

Over Under on the payroll?  I'll set it at $225 million

[Old Red]

Sam says where the payroll goes is top secret.🤫

[mvp 78]

 

[mvp 78]

 

[Duran Is The Man]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Opening Day Payroll:

18: 233M

19: 236M

20: 200M (prorated)

21: 180M 

22: 206M

23: 181M

24: 171M

Certainly feels like they've cut the budget! The last time they were under 170M was 2014, but they ended up within 5M of the CBT by year end. Not sure they'll get there this time. 

my question is why the f*** is the budget so low? is Henry having problems with cash flow? is he saving up to buy Switzerland? does he detest players getting market value for their abilities? the ******* is a gazillionaire and he's acting like he's down to his last hundred bucks.

[mvp 78]

 

[mvp 78]

Now for the real nonsense:

 

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

my question is why the f*** is the budget so low? is Henry having problems with cash flow? is he saving up to buy Switzerland? does he detest players getting market value for their abilities? the ******* is a gazillionaire and he's acting like he's down to his last hundred bucks.

He's always wanted to tampen down payroll going back to when he wanted to hire Billy Beane. He gets off on market inefficiency. He sees it as the game within the game. We just want the wins. He wants to win while looking like the smartest guy in the room. Unfortnately, the Smartest Guys in the Room sometimes lose or wind up in handcuffs. 

[Hugh2]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

He's always wanted to tampen down payroll going back to when he wanted to hire Billy Beane. He gets off on market inefficiency. He sees it as the game within the game. We just want the wins. He wants to win while looking like the smartest guy in the room. Unfortnately, the Smartest Guys in the Room sometimes lose or wind up in handcuffs. 

One of the my favorite books "The smartest guys in the room" 

Some of those Enron Fellas back in the early 2,000's ended up in handcuffs, although something tells me that was your reference...this book. 

[Duran Is The Man]

10 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He's always wanted to tampen down payroll going back to when he wanted to hire Billy Beane. He gets off on market inefficiency. He sees it as the game within the game. We just want the wins. He wants to win while looking like the smartest guy in the room. Unfortnately, the Smartest Guys in the Room sometimes lose or wind up in handcuffs. 

that's what i thought. thanks. and to me, he looks like a greedy, idiotic, egotistical POS.

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

One of the my favorite books "The smartest guys in the room" 

Some of those Enron Fellas back in the early 2,000's ended up in handcuffs, although something tells me that was your reference...this book. 

Just wait until Brock realizes that Yeszir was misusing mark to market accounting to prop up the value of TalkSox, Inc. prior to the sale!!!

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

that's what i thought. thanks. and to me, he looks like a greedy, idiotic, egotistical POS.

He always just looks like he's ready for October to me. 🧛‍♂️

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Under Henry they've never been out of the top 10 in payroll until 2023-2024.

And no, that's not a product of other teams losing their minds.  

We'd be about 10th, if 3-4 teams hadn't raised their budget's a lot, but that is not to say that JH is not a big reason we are in the middle 10. I'd say JH is more responsible, but not 100%.

According to Steve the Ump, we were 6ht in '22 at $195M. #10 was TOR at $168M. To be top 10 in 2023, JH would have had to spend $180.9M. He spent $175.7M (about $5M short.) Had JH stayed the same in '23, we'd have been 9th, but so many teams jumped their spending, by a lot.

Let me add, the $15M uptick in spending from the playoff team of 2021 is largely forgotten, and that year, we dropped from 3rd to 6th. That was certainly not JH's fault.

Again, I'm not defending him, at all, but other GMs have gone wild on spending.