A Realistic View at 2024: Part III

[Bellhorn04]

10 minutes ago, notin said:

For me?

Im not the guy who already signed Hendriks (and Fulmer, who also has closing experience). And not going to be the guy who packages Mayer for pitching, leaving Story as the only SS on the roster with anything remotely resembling a defensive skill set…

You'll be thrilled to know 😎 that I side with you on Story (don't f***ing trade him).   

[moonslav59]

I agree, we should expect the owner and CBO to do their very best to help the team become a winner. If it seems like they are trying hard, and it doesn't work out, that's one thing, but clearly, the last 3-4 years has seen a leadership group focused more on trying to give the perception of trying hard. Thay have failed at that, as well as with the on the field results, except for 2021.

I do think it is more obvious, now, that the fans are not fooled, anymore. I'm not sure that makes a difference, unless they see less NESN subscriptions and season ticket purchases. It seems it has to make business sense to win more games, for these guys to do something about it. I'm sure I'm oversimplifying this, but it's what I feel is going on.

I still remain hopeful that this was a 5 year plan, and the 5 years are up. We already have a bunch of low cost, younger players on the 26 and 40. We have 4-6 pretty damn good players that are ML ready or very close to it. All will make min wage for several years. There really is no acceptable excuse for not spending on pitching, this year. It could be financial and trade capital or just money, but we should be pissed, if it doesn't happen, this winter. I'm not sure it will, and I'll be pissed again, if it doesn't.

The worst thing is, I would not predict we spend big, this winter. That's how skeptical I am about these guys.

We really could possibly do it, this winter, by just spending up to the tax line, without going over it. We'd have to be very good with our choices, and we haven't been, lately, but we need to focus on adding proven, quality pitchers with no or little reason to expect and injury. That is not easy. That is not cheap, but we have a lot of spending room between where we are and the tax line.

If they try to "sham" us again with all talk and little action, it will be a joke that nobody will laugh at.

[notin]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

It's hard to bash JH and Bloomslow for so much, then expect Cora to work miracles. Even the guys he gets end up on the IL.

Is leaving in a pitcher who’s gone 4 perfect innings on 52 pitches instead of an overworked bullpen really a miraculous achievement? 

[notin]

16 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

You'll be thrilled to know 😎 that I side with you on Story (don't f***ing trade him).   

Side with me?

I never wanted him and don’t trust him.  All I’ve done is accept him and hope he can stay on the field.

I don’t think he’s a bad player, but I don’t think he’s irreplaceable either.

[mvp 78]

30 minutes ago, notin said:

For me?

Im not the guy who already signed Hendriks (and Fulmer, who also has closing experience). And not going to be the guy who packages Mayer for pitching, leaving Story as the only SS on the roster with anything remotely resembling a defensive skill set…

Not to worry, DeJong is a FA.

[notin]

9 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Not to worry, DeJong is a FA.

My fear is I’ve already overhyped him.  He could never live up to the levels of advanced mediocrity I’ve been calling for.

 

(But I’d be happy if they did get him.)

[mvp 78]

His -9 DRS this season is probably just an aberration! 

[notin]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

His -9 DRS this season is probably just an aberration! 

Exactly.  It’s proof he’s so good, you don’t take him out even when his DRS falls to -8…

[Bellhorn04]

16 minutes ago, notin said:

Side with me?

I never wanted him and don’t trust him.  All I’ve done is accept him and hope he can stay on the field.

I don’t think he’s a bad player, but I don’t think he’s irreplaceable either.

He's a first-rate defender on a team that has historically bad infield defense.  I see a need.

[mvp 78]

Just now, Bellhorn04 said:

He's a first-rate defender on a team that has historically bad infield defense.  I see a need.

He'd be fine at 2b. 

[notin]

1 minute ago, Bellhorn04 said:

He's a first-rate defender on a team that has historically bad infield defense.  I see a need.

There’s a need.  He just hasn’t been attentive enough to fill it. 

[notin]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

He'd be fine at 2b. 

First, he seems to get hurt regardless of where he plays.  Even if the Sox benched him, he’d probably get terminal hemorrhoids.

Second, the Sox have other options there who have proven they cannot handle SS..

[Old Red]

33 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He'd be fine at 2b. 

If Mayer was healthy, and ready I believe he would be the starting SS, and Story would be at 2B. Story still has a good glove, but I’m not so sure about his bat. 

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, Old Red said:

If Mayer was healthy, and ready I believe he would be the starting SS, and Story would be at 2B. Story still has a good glove, but I’m not so sure about his bat. 

He hasn't been healthy long enough for us to see if his bat is still good or not. 

[moonslav59]

Just add a glove first cheap SS with ML experience, who will accept a minor league deal- maybe with an opt out, if not on the 26 by a certain date. Have somebody in the system, if case Story and mayer are hurt at the same time.

DHam should only play 2B or be on the bench.

[mvp 78]

From Jay Jaffe today on the changes in playoff %'s since trade deadline: 

Team	W	L	W%	Div	WC	Playoffs	W	L	W%	Div	WC	Playoffs	Net Playoffs
Mariners	56	52	.519	40.6%	8.3%	48.9%	69	69	.500	2.5%	3.3%	5.8%	-43.1%
Red Sox	56	50	.528	1.5%	1.4%	42.0%	70	68	.507	0.0%	14.0%	14.0%	-28.0%
Cardinals	54	52	.509	7.9%	14.9%	22.7%	69	69	.500	0.0%	0.9%	1.0%	-21.7%
Giants	53	55	.491	0.4%	17.3%	17.6%	68	70	.493	0.0%	0.4%	0.4%	-17.2%
Pirates	54	52	.509	5.8%	10.1%	15.9%	64	73	.467	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	-15.9%
Mets	56	50	.528	1.5%	50.0%	51.6%	74	64	.536	1.0%	34.7%	35.8%	-15.8%

The Red Sox lost seven of 10 games heading into the deadline, slipping to 2.5 games out of a Wild Card spot, and while they made several moves, nothing they did amounted to an impact addition — an all-too-familiar situation for John Henry’s club in recent years. They reacquired James Paxton, and added Danny Jansen and a few bullpen pieces, including Luis García and Lucas Sims, but even those moves have largely backfired. Paxton made just three starts before returning to his all-too-familiar home on the injured list. Jansen made history by playing for both the Blue Jays and Red Sox in a suspended game but has hit for just a 64 wRC+ for his new team. García and Sims made a hash of their high-leverage opportunities, combining to allow 22 runs in 20.2 innings before landing on the IL, having made significant contributions to the bullpen’s 5.59 ERA and 5.20 FIP since the deadline.

With the exception of a strong stretch from Brayan Bello, the rotation has largely regressed in that time as well, and for as great a human interest story as the latest Rich Hill comeback may be, his workload isn’t going to turn things around. While the Sox remain fourth in the AL Wild Card race, they’re now closer to last place in the AL East (3.5 games) than qualifying for the postseason (4.5 games.).

[moonslav59]

While almost all our starters, except Bello have pitched worse since April to mid May, some have shown a bit of an uptick from their horrible stretches.

Houck: 6.16 ERA/5.95 FIP (6 starts from 6/27-8/3) and 3.23/4.48 since.

Crawford: 9.75/9.39 (5 starts from 7/21 to 8/13) and 3.52/3.92 last 4 starts.

Pivetta: 5.47/2.46 (5 starts from 6/28 to 7/24) and 4.94/5.74 last 5.

Criswell: 5.48/4.22 (7 games from 7/12 to 8/16) and 1.50/4.26 last 3 GS.

Bello had a nice run from 7/14 to 8/17: 3.57/4.82, but then did worse in his last 3 GS: 4.42/2.69, at least with the ERA, despite the 2 hit 8 IP shutout game.

[dgalehouse]

Despite everything, the Sox are still in the race, along with maybe five other teams,  for the third wild card . None of the teams are very good or deserving of being in the playoffs, but it is what it is. The opportunity is still there for the taking.  The Sox have three games coming up with the Pale Hose . They can't possibly lose any of those, can they ? After that is is mostly divisional play in the home stretch. So, it's not over yet. 

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, dgalehouse said:

Despite everything, the Sox are still in the race, along with maybe five other teams,  for the third wild card . None of the teams are very good or deserving of being in the playoffs, but it is what it is. The opportunity is still there for the taking.  The Sox have three games coming up with the Pale Hose . They can't possibly lose any of those, can they ? After that is is mostly divisional play in the home stretch. So, it's not over yet. 

Sweeping the Twins in September could be enough to get us to pass them, but we do have to beat other teams, too. After the CWS, it's all ALE & MIN.

[Randy Red Sox]

hey the Sox finally made it to .500 by losing their 11th of their last 14..  F u John Henry !!

[Randy Red Sox]

5 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Sweeping the Twins in September could be enough to get us to pass them, but we do have to beat other teams, too. After the CWS, it's all ALE & MIN.

This team does NOT deserve to make the playoffs after losing their 11th of the last 14 games !!  They are a JOKE.  Why doesn't Henry just tell Breslow to resign Hill now so he can save a few $$ from next year's payroll.  

[moonslav59]

45 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

hey the Sox finally made it to .500 by losing their 11th of their last 14..  

It happened quicker than I thought it could/would.

[Randy Red Sox]

most of us predicted 80-84 wins.  seems about right

[moonslav59]

11 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

most of us predicted 80-84 wins.  seems about right

Lower end, if not below 80 is looking likely, now.

Man, that sure happened, quickly.

Release the hounds!

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

70 wins, 70 losses, 22 left... and the most difficult math:

To finish .500, the Red Sox will have to win as many games as they lose the rest of the way.

(again) "they have to win as many games as they lose..."

For that to actually happen the Sox need to score more runs than an opponent 11 times over 9 innings (minimum, weather-permitting). 

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

70 wins, 70 losses, 22 left... and the most difficult math:

To finish .500, the Red Sox will have to win as many games as they lose the rest of the way.

(again) "they have to win as many games as they lose..."

For that to actually happen the Sox need to score more runs than an opponent 11 times over 9 innings (minimum, weather-permitting). 

78-84 would be poetic.  At this point it might actually be an achievement.

[Bellhorn04]

16 hours ago, dgalehouse said:

Despite everything, the Sox are still in the race, along with maybe five other teams,  for the third wild card . None of the teams are very good or deserving of being in the playoffs, but it is what it is. The opportunity is still there for the taking.  The Sox have three games coming up with the Pale Hose . They can't possibly lose any of those, can they ? After that is is mostly divisional play in the home stretch. So, it's not over yet. 

Denny, you really do have an incurably optimistic streak.

Can the Red Sox possibly lose any of the games with the White Sox?  Oh, damn straight they can.  We were actually fortunate to salvage a split of our earlier 4 game series with them.  

[moonslav59]

21 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

78-84 would be poetic.  At this point it might actually be an achievement.

78 wins is likely the correct over-under, at this point.

[Bellhorn04]

Our run differential has gone into the red at -5.

The 2024 team has a great shot at being worse by some metrics than the 2022 and 2023 teams.

That's going to be really hard for Sam to put a positive spin on.  

 

 

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Our run differential has gone into the red at -5.

The 2024 team has a great shot at being worse by some metrics than the 2022 and 2023 teams.

That's going to be really hard for Sam to put a positive spin on.  

If the defense for the 2023 was better, we would have won 8 more games so we're not going to change the defense at all except hope that Trevor Story stays healthy for the year. If that happens, we'll have to move our best defensive player off their best position and really screw with things! It'll be kinda fun!