A Realistic View at 2024: Part III

[Bellhorn04]

Passing on Imanaga because the Sox didn’t want to commit as many years might turn out to be the right choice.

 

But ignoring pitching depth altogether has been the problem. Once Hiolito and Whitlock went down (and how they didn’t even anticipate the possibility of Whitlock going down is another problem), they basically threw up their hands and said “f*** it. Just use the bullpen!”

 

Who were the good depth signings they missed on?

[moonslav59]

Personally I don't care that much about what us posters say LOL

 

I just find it hard to blame Brez for not signings someone like Imanaga, if you were not for it, last winter, especially after seeing what he signed for.

 

Sure, it's fine to point it out, but it seems a tiny bit hypocritical to blame him, if you never said you thought he made a mistake at that time.

 

Also, many of us wanted Montgomery signed, at the time, and thought that was a major mistake, once we knew Gio was out for the year. It turns out, Brez did a good job not listening to us on him.

[moonslav59]

Who were the good depth signings they missed on?

 

Maybe $14M/1 for Flaherty or $15M/2 for Fedde are too expensive to call depth signings, but neither was a huge long term risk.

 

Here might be some that fit the bill:

 

Gibson 131 IP 4.26 ERA ($13M/1, maybe too pricey, as well)

Severino 134 IP 4.17 ERA ($13M/1)

Lynn 106 IP 4.06 ERA ($11M/1)

Lorenzen 113 IP 3.73 ERA ($4.5M/1)

 

It's interesting to note than maybe the best SP depth signing for uner $4M, last winter was Cooper Criswell at $1M (63 IP 4.02 ERA and a 1.1 fWAR. That 1.1 fWAR is tied for 88th best in MLB among all pitchers and tied with Severino, Lynn, Bello and others. It's better than Montas, Cole Irvin, Detmers, Flexen, Scherzer, Cole, Luzardo, Monty, Paxton and many others.

 

Maybe, this area was not as bad as we think. After all, we have used 9 SP'ers, this year, not counting openers:

24 Houck

24 Crawford

22 Bello

19 Pivetta

13 Criswell

6 Wink

4 Whitlock

3 Paxton

1 Anderson

 

We lost Gio, Whitlock and Murphy as options to start.

 

Other teams, like the Astros, have lost as many or more, so this is not an excuse, but Brez did have 9 options for 5 slots, and Criswell did okay.

 

What hurt, a lot was counting on Bello to do at least as well as 2023, but he did not. Houck and Crawford have done better than expected, despite recent woes. Pivetta has done about as expected. Wink was in the dog house for a while and has done about as expected. Paxton and Anderson failed.

 

[Bellhorn04]

I just find it hard to blame Brez for not signings someone like Imanaga, if you were not for it, last winter, especially after seeing what he signed for.

 

Sure, it's fine to point it out, but it seems a tiny bit hypocritical to blame him, if you never said you thought he made a mistake at that time.

 

Also, many of us wanted Montgomery signed, at the time, and thought that was a major mistake, once we knew Gio was out for the year. It turns out, Brez did a good job not listening to us on him.

 

I'm sure I expressed disappointment about not signing Imanaga. I'll have to dig up the posts about it.

 

I'm picking on that one because we know the Sox were actually in on the bidding.

[Bellhorn04]

Maybe $14M/1 for Flaherty or $15M/2 for Fedde are too expensive to call depth signings, but neither was a huge long term risk.

 

notin is talking about the Sox not signing anyone after Giolito and Whitlock went down.

[moonslav59]

notin is talking about the Sox not signing anyone after Giolito and Whitlock went down.

 

Yes, and I'm not sure when all these guys signed, but in terms of under-the radar SP signings, Criswell might be the best signing of those in all of MLB, last winter.

[notin]

Who were the good depth signings they missed on?

 

Lauer, German, Odorizzi, Urena, Flexen, Turnbull. You know - all of them…

[mvp 78]

moon…

[notin]

notin is talking about the Sox not signing anyone after Giolito and Whitlock went down.

 

Mostly after Giolito went down. That they continued the inactivity after Whitlock went down just made matters worse…

[moonslav59]

Mostly after Giolito went down. That they continued the inactivity after Whitlock went down just made matters worse…

 

...as you have often said, once the season starts, not many teams are looking to make trades.

[notin]

...as you have often said, once the season starts, not many teams are looking to make trades.

 

True. But Giolito went down with plenty of names still available. And expecting Whitlock to last all year was simply not learning from the past…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

So maybe a smart strategy -- once an owner decides to spend big on pitching in the offseason -- isn't to break the bank to outbid everyone else for the best pitcher available (and pray he doesn't get hurt)...

 

... instead, why not spread out the same money and sign three or four average, but established MLB starters (who aren't over the hill, injury-prone or recently cut by other clubs).

 

It doesn't matter if a staff goes into the season with an 8- or 9-man rotation... because we know half of them will be on the IL the first month, and one or two will be out through the summer or next year.

 

But a key for authentic contenders is having legitimate depth -- not a few arms in the high minors who might be able to help in an emergency.

[notin]

So maybe a smart strategy -- once an owner decides to spend big on pitching in the offseason -- isn't to break the bank to outbid everyone else for the best pitcher available (and pray he doesn't get hurt)...

 

... instead, why not spread out the same money and sign three or four average, but established MLB starters (who aren't over the hill, injury-prone or recently cut by other clubs).

 

It doesn't matter if a staff goes into the season with an 8- or 9-man rotation... because we know half of them will be on the IL the first month, and one or two will be out through the summer or next year.

 

But a key for authentic contenders is having legitimate depth -- not a few arms in the high minors who might be able to help in an emergency.

 

 

And that’s just what the Sox did.

 

The spent their allowance on Giolito, and their prayers weren’t answered. And since they didn’t sign a bunch of experienced veterans (not even to MiLB deals), they decided to rely on their MLB-ready prospects - both of them. Unfortunately one needed TJ and the other one sucked.

 

But at least they didn’t waste money lining up 8-10 starting pitchers before spring training like they did all those years when they were winning…

[moonslav59]

True. But Giolito went down with plenty of names still available. And expecting Whitlock to last all year was simply not learning from the past…

 

I totally agree on this.

 

I was the guy saying we should sign 3 solid SP'ers and wanted to have Whitlock, and 2 from Houck, Crawford and Pivetta start the year in the pen.

 

1. FA

2. Gio

3. FA

4. Bello

5. FA

6. Pivetta

7. Crawford

8. Houck

9. Whitlock

10. Wink, Murphy, Criswell

[Bellhorn04]

I totally agree on this.

 

I was the guy saying we should sign 3 solid SP'ers and wanted to have Whitlock, and 2 from Houck, Crawford and Pivetta start the year in the pen.

 

1. FA

2. Gio

3. FA

4. Bello

5. FA

6. Pivetta

7. Crawford

8. Houck

9. Whitlock

10. Wink, Murphy, Criswell

 

Such dreams we had...again.

[moonslav59]

Such dreams we had...again.

 

I knew it would never happen. I had serious doubts we'd add 2 solid SP'ers.

 

I'm not thinking we'll add 2-3 this winter, either, but I hope we add 3-4.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

And that’s just what the Sox did.

 

The spent their allowance on Giolito, and their prayers weren’t answered. And since they didn’t sign a bunch of experienced veterans (not even to MiLB deals), they decided to rely on their MLB-ready prospects - both of them. Unfortunately one needed TJ and the other one sucked.

 

But at least they didn’t waste money lining up 8-10 starting pitchers before spring training like they did all those years when they were winning…

 

We know what the Sox really didn't do -- which is what Kansas City did do last winter -- immediately zero in on mid-level affordable MAJOR LEAGUE arms, like starters Lugo and Wacha, and relievers Smith, Stratton, Schrieber and Nick Anderson. And this summer the Royals added the perfectly average Lorenzen, who via trade deadline or free agency the past two years joined his fourth club -- none of them named Boston.

 

It seems to be working out ok for KC, playoff-bound right now with the third-best Runs Allowed per Game in the AL.

[Bellhorn04]

We know what the Sox really didn't do -- which is what Kansas City did do last winter -- immediately zero in on mid-level affordable MAJOR LEAGUE arms, like starters Lugo and Wacha, and relievers Smith, Stratton, Schrieber and Nick Anderson. And this summer the Royals added the perfectly average Lorenzen, who via trade deadline or free agency the past two years joined his fourth club -- none of them named Boston.

 

It seems to be working out ok for KC, playoff-bound right now with the third-best Runs Allowed per Game in the AL.

 

Yes, the real criminal negligence by the Sox is not signing any of those mid-level deals the last few years.

[moonslav59]

We know what the Sox really didn't do -- which is what Kansas City did do last winter -- immediately zero in on mid-level affordable MAJOR LEAGUE arms, like starters Lugo and Wacha, and relievers Smith, Stratton, Schrieber and Nick Anderson. And this summer the Royals added the perfectly average Lorenzen, who via trade deadline or free agency the past two years joined his fourth club -- none of them named Boston.

 

It seems to be working out ok for KC, playoff-bound right now with the third-best Runs Allowed per Game in the AL.

 

I agree, and maybe we can say they got lucky by hitting on Lugo and Wacha, but they did sign a few pitchers- not just the two starters.

 

I will say, I do think Brez made a nice attempt at improving the pen, over the winter, but like Gio and the Sale trade, he swung and missed, too often.

 

Getting Slaten was a steal. Too bad he got hurt.

I Campbell looked like a decent addition, as did Weissert.

Criswell was a stab in the dark, but he has done okay as a SP and RP.

Booser worked out okay.

The Garcia & Sims trades have bombed.

[moonslav59]

Rich Hill will start for Woo on Tuesday.

 

Slaten threw another pen session, yesterday and will throw again on the 19th. If all goes well, he will rehab for a bit. I'm thinking, maybe end of August?

 

Hendriks will pitch, tomorrow with Woo. He's expected to make 6-8 rehab appearances before joining the Sox. (Maybe Sept 1st?)

 

No updates on Booser.

 

AUG 12th update on Story: "The chances of Story coming back this season have gone from slim to realistic."

 

[Randy Red Sox]

I agree, and maybe we can say they got lucky by hitting on Lugo and Wacha, but they did sign a few pitchers- not just the two starters.

 

I will say, I do think Brez made a nice attempt at improving the pen, over the winter, but like Gio and the Sale trade, he swung and missed, too often.

 

Getting Slaten was a steal. Too bad he got hurt.

I Campbell looked like a decent addition, as did Weissert.

Criswell was a stab in the dark, but he has done okay as a SP and RP.

Booser worked out okay.

The Garcia & Sims trades have bombed.

 

Sims has looked better his last 2 outings

[moonslav59]

Sims has looked better his last 2 outings

 

Garcia and Sims have a long way to go to lose the "bomb" label, but yes...

[Larry Cook]

I agree, and maybe we can say they got lucky by hitting on Lugo and Wacha, but they did sign a few pitchers- not just the two starters.

 

I will say, I do think Brez made a nice attempt at improving the pen, over the winter, but like Gio and the Sale trade, he swung and missed, too often.

 

Getting Slaten was a steal. Too bad he got hurt.

I Campbell looked like a decent addition, as did Weissert.

Criswell was a stab in the dark, but he has done okay as a SP and RP.

Booser worked out okay.

The Garcia & Sims trades have bombed.

 

Is it time to bring weissert back to Boston. Now that his arm is not so tired that it is falling off, he looks pretty decent

[moonslav59]

Is it time to bring weissert back to Boston. Now that his arm is not so tired that it is falling off, he looks pretty decent

 

Agreed. Maybe ICampbell or Joely get another looksee, too.

 

Keller looked good.

[mvp 78]

Is it time to bring weissert back to Boston. Now that his arm is not so tired that it is falling off, he looks pretty decent

 

He’s better than some of the garbage we’ve seen lately.

[Bellhorn04]

Rich Hill will start for Woo on Tuesday.

 

So Boston on Sunday.

[Bellhorn04]

Raffy Devers now has a 163 OPS+. That works.

[Bellhorn04]

Agreed. Maybe ICampbell or Joely get another looksee, too.

 

Keller looked good.

 

I didn't know Joely was still in the picture.

[moonslav59]

I didn't know Joely was still in the picture.

 

He may not get another look in 2024, but he's done okay in August:

 

5.1 IP

3 hits

4 BB + 1 HBP (1.5 batters on base per IP is not good)

5 K

[moonslav59]

Raffy Devers now has a 163 OPS+. That works.

 

2024

163 Devers

145 O'Neill (good job, Brez!)

133 Ref (TY Bloom)

131 Duran (Glad we never traded him)

129 Abreu (Vaz who?)

122 Yoshida (Overpay?)

116 Wong (Let's forget Jeter Downs.)

 

Back to Devers: career high OPS+

163 2024, blows all other seasons away!

141 2022

134 2021

132 2019, generally considered his best career year

126 2023