A Realistic View at 2024: Part III

[Randy Red Sox]

Rich Hill just did a throwing session for interested teams, BTW, and you won't be surprised to hear the Sox were one of them.

 

yeah Henry is salivating because he will probably only cost about $500,000 for less than half a year

[Bellhorn04]

In our last 18 games we've given up less than 5 runs 3 times.

[Duran Is The Man]

ERA by months:

 

2.62

4.12

4.38

4.91

6.05

 

Mr. Bailey?

 

and Moon thinks i'm delusional for thinking they're going down hill with no hope of getting better and making the playoffs.

[moonslav59]

and Moon thinks i'm delusional for thinking they're going down hill with no hope of getting better and making the playoffs.

 

No, I never even came close to saying or thinking this. Our pitching has been in a steep decline for months. My point is about the fact that along the way, we have seen ups and downs, even with the pitching.

 

Baseball is hardly ever linear. Just berak it down to half months, and you can see the difference:

 

3.10 Early May

5.02 Late May

4.23 Early June

4.54 Late June

3.65 Early July (pretty promising, right?)

6.08 Late July (only 12 games due to ASB)

6.05 in first 7 games of AUG (5.11 first 5)

 

You are assuming we repeat the last 19 games for the rest of the season and think it's delusional to have any hope we can reverse the slide. I think it's delusional to think we do NOt have any hope.

 

Nobody know where we go from here. It's delusional to think we do know. That is my position. I am not predicting we turn it around- only that we can, and it is not a long shot.

 

You think it's delusional to think it's even possible we don't continue sliding downwards or can improve on 6.05.

[moonslav59]

Just about everything about our rotation construction has been weird since JH had his big epiphany about the payroll.

 

One gets tired of going back over and over it.

 

The bottom line is, it's still a big problem. And Andrew Bailey could obviously only improve it a little with the tweaks he made. The value of the tweaks seems to have all worn off.

 

It would make sense if there was a (secret) 5 year plan in place starting in 2020.

 

(Not saying it is, and for all I know, it could be a 6 year plan or no plan of ever spending bigly again.)

[Randy Red Sox]

No, I never even came close to saying or thinking this. Our pitching has been in a steep decline for months. My point is about the fact that along the way, we have seen ups and downs, even with the pitching.

 

Baseball is hardly ever linear. Just berak it down to half months, and you can see the difference:

 

3.10 Early May

5.02 Late May

4.23 Early June

4.54 Late June

3.65 Early July (pretty promising, right?)

6.08 Late July (only 12 games due to ASB)

6.05 in first 7 games of AUG (5.11 first 5)

 

You are assuming we repeat the last 19 games for the rest of the season and think it's delusional to have any hope we can reverse the slide. I think it's delusional to think we do NOt have any hope.

 

Nobody know where we go from here. It's delusional to think we do know. That is my position. I am not predicting we turn it around- only that we can, and it is not a long shot.

 

You think it's delusional to think it's even possible we don't continue sliding downwards or can improve on 6.05.

 

nonetheless over the year to date we have gotten pretty much the results we could have expected given the pitching staff we have. If we miss the postseason it will be another year of not adding to our prospects by dealing expiring contracts. Did Breslow not say we would be one way or the other at the deadline?? Doesn't seem to me that we were all in.

[moonslav59]

nonetheless over the year to date we have gotten pretty much the results we could have expected given the pitching staff we have. If we miss the postseason it will be another year of not adding to our prospects by dealing expiring contracts. Did Breslow not say we would be one way or the other at the deadline?? Doesn't seem to me that we were all in.

 

I had hoped for more than Paxton, Garcia and Sims. Once again, I think we have over relied on returning pitchers from the IL. (Slaten, Martin, Hendriks...)

 

I certainly will blame another missed playoffs on the lack of pitching. It is clear.

 

Last winter, I advocated signing 3 solid SP'ers and we signed a questionable Giolito and hardly any depth (Criswell & Chase Anderson.) The trading away of Sale came back to bite our ass.

 

Brez may have chosen "a lane," but not full throttle.

 

BTW, we did add a prospect in Priester.

 

I'm not happy with the choices we made with our staff, last winter or during the season. I will say, I was not for selling, this year, and I still think we have a better shot at the playoffs than we did in '22 or '23. (Both of those seasons I wanted us to sell.)

[vegasbob]

Ih he shows half a heartbeat, sign his ass!

 

Yeah, I think there's an Old Timer's game coming up and Rich has faced most of them. In seriousness , maybe he could steal a game here and there or mop up a big loss rather than Dom Smith.

[vegasbob]

and Moon thinks i'm delusional for thinking they're going down hill with no hope of getting better and making the playoffs.

 

Just to throw a little gas on the fire, note that no team has played to a .600 win ratio in either league. Phillies are close at .595. O's are in the park at .590.

 

If the Red Sox closed out the final 48 at .600 ( or very close), they would add 28-29 wins, finishing the year at 89-90 wins, fair chance at WC.

 

If they close out at their current win rate of .535, you would see a 86 win team. Yankees, Twins and Royals project out higher at current paces. Red Sox need a 8-10 game win streak, which has not happened this year. 5 W streak is the best so far

 

Don't discount the Mariners either, right on Astros heels. Oh, ok , discount them it's the Mariners

Edited August 10, 2024 by vegasbob

[moonslav59]

It seems that the DHam-Romy platoon at 2B was doing rather nicely, but out of nowhere Sogard is taking away their playing time.

 

Granted, DHam was slumping, and Romy is pretty much a straight platoon bat, who has been playing 1B vs LHPs, so Sogard playing more makes sense, but still...

 

OPS last 14 days

1.256 Romy

1.143 Jansen

1.106 Abreu

1.021 O'Neill (IL)

1.020 Devers

.921 Ref

.913 Yoshida

.865 Duran

.835 Smith

.791 Rafaela

.787 Sogard

.680 DHam

.668 Wong

 

Last 28 days:

1.022 Romy

.787 Sogard

.646 DHam

[moonslav59]

Just to throw a little gas on the fire, note that no team has played to a .600 win ratio in either league. Phillies are close at .595. O's are in the park at .590.

 

If the Red Sox closed out the final 48 at .600 ( or very close), they would add 28-29 wins, finishing the year at 89-90 wins, fair chance at WC.

 

If they close out at their curent winn rate of .535, you would see a 86 win team. Yankees, Twins and Royals project out higher at current paces. Red Sox need a 8-10 game win streak, which has not happened this year. 5 W streak is the best so far

 

July + AUG

18-13 MIN

18-14 HOU

17-14 BOS

17-14 KCR

16-17 BAL

14-16 NYY

14-17 SEA

15-19 CLE

 

June+July+August

35-22 HOU

32-24 BOS

33-25 MIN

33-29 BAL

29-29 KCR & SEA

29-30 CLE

28-29 NYY

 

Nobody is playing like they are a lock for the playoffs, and this is the main reason nobody should count the Sox out.

[moonslav59]

Best AL records since June 30th:

19-13 MIN

19-14 HOU

18-14 BOS, OAK & KCR

17-15 TBR & TEX

18-16 DET

15-16 NYY

16-18 BAL & TOR

14-18 SEA

15-20 CLE

4-29 CWS (2-2 v BOS and 2-27 vs everyone else)

 

Other than the CWS, the standings are almost upside down since June 30th.

 

 

[Hugh2]

yeah Henry is salivating because he will probably only cost about $500,000 for less than half a year

 

 

It's not like there are many options at this point. It's august.

[Duran Is The Man]

No, I never even came close to saying or thinking this. Our pitching has been in a steep decline for months. My point is about the fact that along the way, we have seen ups and downs, even with the pitching.

 

Baseball is hardly ever linear. Just berak it down to half months, and you can see the difference:

 

3.10 Early May

5.02 Late May

4.23 Early June

4.54 Late June

3.65 Early July (pretty promising, right?)

6.08 Late July (only 12 games due to ASB)

6.05 in first 7 games of AUG (5.11 first 5)

 

You are assuming we repeat the last 19 games for the rest of the season and think it's delusional to have any hope we can reverse the slide. I think it's delusional to think we do NOt have any hope.

 

Nobody know where we go from here. It's delusional to think we do know. That is my position. I am not predicting we turn it around- only that we can, and it is not a long shot.

 

You think it's delusional to think it's even possible we don't continue sliding downwards or can improve on 6.05.

 

your optimism is commendable. i wish i had it, but that's just not my nature. kudos to you.

[Duran Is The Man]

Just to throw a little gas on the fire, note that no team has played to a .600 win ratio in either league. Phillies are close at .595. O's are in the park at .590.

 

If the Red Sox closed out the final 48 at .600 ( or very close), they would add 28-29 wins, finishing the year at 89-90 wins, fair chance at WC.

 

If they close out at their current win rate of .535, you would see a 86 win team. Yankees, Twins and Royals project out higher at current paces. Red Sox need a 8-10 game win streak, which has not happened this year. 5 W streak is the best so far

 

Don't discount the Mariners either, right on Astros heels. Oh, ok , discount them it's the Mariners

 

yeah, i just don't see them making the playoffs despite the foundation of a very good offense. the pitching is the problem and just flat out f***ing sucks. and the FO doesn't give a s***.

[vegasbob]

yeah, i just don't see them making the playoffs despite the foundation of a very good offense. the pitching is the problem and just flat out f***ing sucks. and the FO doesn't give a s***.

 

My point is that i agree with you that the case for the Sox making the WC is weak given the status of pitching. I don't see them making it either. BUT, to Moon's point, it is certainly possible . It may happen because the other AL contenders are not super powers in any way. Biggest concern is losing games in which a win is very obtainable. That has happened multiple times since A-S break, generally in the 7th-8th inning.

[Duran Is The Man]

My point is that i agree with you that the case for the Sox making the WC is weak given the status of pitching. I don't see them making it either. BUT, to Moon's point, it is certainly possible . It may happen because the other AL contenders are not super powers in any way. Biggest concern is losing games in which a win is very obtainable. That has happened multiple times since A-S break, generally in the 7th-8th inning.

 

agreed.

[moonslav59]

your optimism is commendable. i wish i had it, but that's just not my nature. kudos to you.

 

I'm not sure we turn it around or not. My "optimism" is based more on looking around and seeing how badly everyone else is playing, too, than any evidence that the Sox might be capable of doing better. If we everyone keeps playing like they did from June 30th to today, we're in.

 

I'm just surprised you think it's delusional to think we can do it.

[Randy Red Sox]

I had hoped for more than Paxton, Garcia and Sims. Once again, I think we have over relied on returning pitchers from the IL. (Slaten, Martin, Hendriks...)

 

I certainly will blame another missed playoffs on the lack of pitching. It is clear.

 

Last winter, I advocated signing 3 solid SP'ers and we signed a questionable Giolito and hardly any depth (Criswell & Chase Anderson.) The trading away of Sale came back to bite our ass.

 

Brez may have chosen "a lane," but not full throttle.

 

BTW, we did add a prospect in Priester.

 

I'm not happy with the choices we made with our staff, last winter or during the season. I will say, I was not for selling, this year, and I still think we have a better shot at the playoffs than we did in '22 or '23. (Both of those seasons I wanted us to sell.)

 

we also gave away a few pretty decent prospects for rentals

[moonslav59]

we also gave away a few pretty decent prospects for rentals

 

I'd guess Priester > all those traded combined.

[notin]

we also gave away a few pretty decent prospects for rentals

 

No we didn’t. The most promising one was an 18yo in A ball, and he’s so far from MLB, he might lose his shine by then.

 

The bulk we have the Angels was largely a bunch of players who’ve never cracked the Sox top ten despite multiple years on the system and were all going to be exposed to the Rule 5 draft anyway

[moonslav59]

Injury Report per MLB.com:

 

RHP Liam Hendriks inching closer to rehab assignment

For the second time this week, Hendriks threw live batting practice, this time on Saturday at Fenway Park against teammates Enmanuel Valdez and Romy Gonzalez. The righty, who is coming back from Tommy John surgery, threw 20 pitches and was pleased with his progression. Hendriks will throw a third live batting practice on either Tuesday or Wednesday, and there's a chance that will be the last one before he starts a Minor League rehab assignment. The plan is for Hendriks to be back with the Red Sox at some point in September.

 

RHP Brayan Bello placed on paternity leave list; LHP Cam Booser recalled from Triple-A Worcester. Bello was placed on the paternity list prior to Friday's game against the Astros, but he is expected to be activated in time for his next scheduled start on Monday night against the Rangers.

 

RHP Justin Slaten (right elbow inflammation) Expected return: Mid-August. A key setup man for the Red Sox, Slaten has thrown out to 105 feet during long toss and should progress to mound work in the coming week, according to manager Alex Cora. Slaten owns a 3.38 ERA with 45 strikeouts over 42 2/3 innings this season with Boston. He has been on the IL since July 12.

 

OF Tyler O'Neill (leg infection/illness) Expected return: Aug. 14 or thereabouts. O'Neill was placed on the injured list on Aug. 7 (retroactive to Aug. 4) due to a left leg infection. Before that, he had an an illness and it's unclear if the two things are related. At this point, the Red Sox are still hopeful O'Neill can return at the 10-day mark, which is the Aug. 14 finale of the current homestand against the Rangers.

 

1B Triston Casas (torn cartilage in left rib cage) Expected return: Aug. 15 at earliest. Casas continued his Minor League rehab assignment with Triple-A Worcester on Aug. 10. Red Sox manager Alex Cora said he would speak with the slugger about his progress after that game. Cora said he doesn't expect Casas back during the current homestand, which ends on Aug. 14 against the Rangers. Casas should be back at some point during the road trip that starts in Baltimore (Aug. 15-18) and continues in Houston (Aug. 19-21). His 20-day rehab assignment expires on Aug. 20. “Right now, it's up to him," Cora said on Aug. 9. "He's healthy. Like I said, he's been taking grounders for a long time. I think the baseball part of it, the physical part of it, he's ready to go. Now the timing part of it, he'll let us know. He's been hitting the ball hard. Obviously, you know, he's coming through this injury. We knew it was going to take time.

 

[moonslav59]

Not a good weekend, so far. Gotta pull out tomorrow's game.

 

KCR and MIN both won, so we are...

 

-2.5 from KCR (-1 in loss column)

-3.5 from MIN (-3 losses)

-6.5 from NYY (-5 losses)

 

[Duran Is The Man]

I'm not sure we turn it around or not. My "optimism" is based more on looking around and seeing how badly everyone else is playing, too, than any evidence that the Sox might be capable of doing better. If we everyone keeps playing like they did from June 30th to today, we're in.

 

I'm just surprised you think it's delusional to think we can do it.

 

if you go back and look...you'll see that i said you'd be delusional to think they could if they keep playing like they have since the ASB..

[Randy Red Sox]

No we didn’t. The most promising one was an 18yo in A ball, and he’s so far from MLB, he might lose his shine by then.

 

The bulk we have the Angels was largely a bunch of players who’ve never cracked the Sox top ten despite multiple years on the system and were all going to be exposed to the Rule 5 draft anyway

 

i didn't say we gave up top prospects but where i live we are in blue jay country and they feel they got 2 decent prospects from us in the Jansen trade which will turn into a rental only and if the Jays so desire they can easily resign Jansen as a FA because with Teal coming the Sox will not be in on Jansen in any way

[Hugh2]

i didn't say we gave up top prospects but where i live we are in blue jay country and they feel they got 2 decent prospects from us in the Jansen trade which will turn into a rental only and if the Jays so desire they can easily resign Jansen as a FA because with Teal coming the Sox will not be in on Jansen in any way

 

Which if Paulino, Coffey, or Batista was too much? Or really hurting our future?

 

Also, that’s the price for a rental but who cares if resigns here or elsewhere.

 

BUT, if the Sox believe both Teel and Wong are starters they could resign Jansen as a back up and trade one of those guys.

 

Reese McGuire was one of the worse hitters in all of baseball, and their defense behind the plate was atrocious.

[Bellhorn04]

Seems like the Royals did what the Red Sox should have done last offseason, with their signings of Lugo and Wacha, who have a combined 5.2 fWAR to date. Along with the near-theft of Ragans, the Royals put together a pretty good rotation in a hurry, and without a massive investment.

[notin]

i didn't say we gave up top prospects but where i live we are in blue jay country and they feel they got 2 decent prospects from us in the Jansen trade which will turn into a rental only and if the Jays so desire they can easily resign Jansen as a FA because with Teal coming the Sox will not be in on Jansen in any way

 

The Sox draft middle infielders. People complain.

 

The Sox trade those same middle infielders for team needs. People complain…

[Bellhorn04]

The Sox draft middle infielders. People complain.

 

The Sox trade those same middle infielders for team needs. People complain…

 

True, but you're going to open yourself up for complaints when you're a rich team with a supposedly smart organization, and you keep missing the playoffs. It creates a bias toward thinking these guys don't really know what they're doing...

[notin]

True, but you're going to open yourself up for complaints when you're a rich team with a supposedly smart organization, and you keep missing the playoffs. It creates a bias toward thinking these guys don't really know what they're doing...

 

Can we at least miss the playoffs before we condemn the team for missing the playoffs? The season isn’t over yet just because you found your white flag…