The Grissom Watch

[notin]

The expectations are that he would be paid 750k for the next 3 years. If he went to ARB, he's not getting 8M for his current production or even 1 fWAR.

 

If he stays as a 1-1.5 fWAR CF, he probably makes a total of $6-8mill over the next 3 years (including first arb). But this extension does buy out 2 years of free agency. If there are any savings, that is the most likely place. An aging Keiermeier still gets over $10mill. I would imagine a 27-28yo Rafaela would top that in years and AAV.

 

I agree it's a gamble, but I don't think it's a horrible one. The only issue us how it impacts the budget should they choose to also extend Duran or (eventually) Anthony, which might come sooner than expected given that we are seeing players like Chourio and Carroll get extended before they debut, or after a very brief one...

[notin]

The gripe is the opt-out, which obviously Giolito would only take if he bounced back and was good. It defies logic that a club so desperate for dependable starting pitchers that are also good would agree to let him go -- since no one in the industry or here on fan boards expected the Red Sox to pay him even more than $19 million per for multiple more years (which would be more than Texas pays Eovaldi, one of the greatest postseason pitchers of the century).

 

That clause is what makes the whole deal so suspicious, and reeks of bridgework. If the Red Sox didn't really expect a guy with a 5 ERA the past two years to be that good, they knew he wouldn't opt out, which means that they were just settling for someone to wear the jersey, take a regular turn on the mound, and fill out a starting nine so they could sell tickets to diehards and out-of-town fans visiting the Fenway experience.

 

Giolito had it made, and still does: $39 million, no matter how bad he was... with the outside chance to make tens of millions more -- in some other city -- if his elbow could just handle one season of Bailey magic. Maybe it's next year.

 

I know fans hate the opt out, because it means "if he is good, he is gone." In this case, it looked like some compensation. If they only wanted him for one year, that opt out meant they could offer him a qualifying offer, as it would be for roughly the same value, and he was guaranteed to reject it, since doing so would not only get him the same money from the opt out, plus more money from whatever his next deal was...

[mvp 78]

The bat-first players who got early extensions - Singleton, Kingery, Chourio, even Corbin Carroll - also all look questionable now or in hindsight. Paying for the glove is safer. But it's not unreasonable to question it, either...

 

Rafaela is 4 years older than Chourio. Corbin Carroll having two bad months is a big reason for concern after his previous 190 games???

 

You really handpicked your sample size there adding in Singleton and Kingery.

[notin]

Rafaela is 4 years older than Chourio. Corbin Carroll having two bad months is a big reason for concern after his previous 190 games???

 

You really handpicked your sample size there adding in Singleton and Kingery.

 

Handpicked? I can only name a handful of the multiyear extensions given to players so early. If you have other examples, I am all ears/eyes...

[Bellhorn04]

And didn’t you make some comment about Kluber last year being a potentially disastrous signing that could derail the season? But now this year, Sale was supposed to be an obvious keeper? Who, if counted in, would have surprised no one if he went down for the season in April and left the Sox counting of Grant Gambrell and Brian Van Belle, neither of whom has ever been named to an MLB All Star team…

 

Kluber would have been acceptable as a depth signing. The problem was he was the only signing. That's what made it into a disaster.

 

Sale was virtually a sunk cost situation. Totally different.

[Bellhorn04]

They could easily have kept Sale and signed Giolito. The more the merrier. It was stupid subtracting a guy who still had the potential to contribute high end results, all to save $10 million and pick up a prospect.

[Bellhorn04]

Tyler Glasnow has a pretty bad injury history too, but the Dodgers traded for him and paid him $136 million. Mainly because of his proven potential. Certainly not because of his record of durability.

 

Glasnow's innings the last 4-5 years look remarkably similar to Sale's...

[notin]

Kluber would have been acceptable as a depth signing. The problem was he was the only signing. That's what made it into a disaster.

 

What made it a disaster was he did not pitch, and was ineffective on the rare days he did.

 

Kluber also pitched 160 IP the year before the Sox signed him; Sale had thrown 150 IP total in the previous 4 years. Was he also going to be a $27mill depth signing?

 

I am not saying the Sox came close to "winning this trade" or it is working out. But for the previous few years, every Spring, I would say the season hinges on Sale, and I always, always, always got the exact same 5 word response verbatim - "you can;t count on Sale."

 

But now, after 4 years of almost no activity, the Sox should have coutned on Sale, based on events that did not exist at the time of the trade?

 

Will we be having these exact same discussions every year? We have pitchers who simply cannot take the mound for Boston, and then go elsewhere and have success, as then suddenly we ignore their previous issues based on hindsight. Eovaldi, Wacha, and now Sale.

 

Plus there was another factor with Sale that might be getting ignored. It looks a lot like he was interested in getting extended, or, at a minimum, having his option exercised. Should the Sox have done that in January? Tack on another full season to a pitcher who hasn't thrown one in 5 years?

 

Atlanta played that smart, too, they gave him the extension it looks like he wanted so Sale would approve the trade. And it just happens to coincide in length with the (worst case) pre-arb years for Elder, Waldrep, Smith-Shawver, etc.

 

They played it smart, because they had the depth to, unlike the Sox...

[Bellhorn04]

But now, after 4 years of almost no activity, the Sox should have coutned on Sale, based on events that did not exist at the time of the trade?

 

You're just not following what I'm saying at all. I've never said it was about counting on him. It was about having little to lose and maybe plenty to gain by keeping him.

[Old Red]

They could easily have kept Sale and signed Giolito. The more the merrier. It was stupid subtracting a guy who still had the potential to contribute high end results, all to save $10 million and pick up a prospect.

 

I don’t know if the Sale deal was being worked on when they signed Gio, but either way Sale is gone for only $10M. Right Now the deal looks bad, but could change if Grissom works out, but right now is what matters most at the moment. If the Sox brass didn’t care about this year then why sign Gio at all?

[notin]

Tyler Glasnow has a pretty bad injury history too, but the Dodgers traded for him and paid him $136 million. Mainly because of his proven potential. Certainly not because of his record of durability.

 

Glasnow's innings the last 4-5 years look remarkably similar to Sale's...

 

OK.

 

First of all, Glasnow is 30 amd his extension runs through age 34. Sale is already 35, Age is an important factor, right?

 

Second, like Atlanta, the Dodgers can churn out minimum wage replacements to fill in the gaps in the event Glasnow misses time. If Sale went down in Boston, like he did in 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023, who steps in? We don't have Gavin Stone, Emmett Sheehan, Landon Knack, Michael Grove, Dustin May. Heck, some of these guys are out with injuries of their own, but will be back before this extension ends.

 

And third, there is a good chance that Glasnow extension results in a lot of dead money. What would be more surprising - Glasnow missing signficant time over the next 4 eyars or Glasnow staying healthy?

[Bellhorn04]

It's not like Giolito was a rock solid no doubt choice after the horror show he put on in the second half last year.

[Bellhorn04]

OK.

 

First of all, Glasnow is 30 amd his extension runs through age 34. Sale is already 35, Age is an important factor, right?

 

Sale also only had one guaranteed year left.

[notin]

You're just not following what I'm saying at all. I've never said it was about counting on him. It was about having little to lose and maybe plenty to gain by keeping him.

 

So $27mill is an acceptable gamble for a longshot?

 

I still see people citing $10mill for Garrett Richards and Kluber as bad deals.

 

And honestly, after 5 years since his last full season, with multiple injuries, what did you expect Sale's ceiling to be? If you say "obviously he was going to jump right back in and pitch like he did in 2017 and 2018," I'm going to (politely) call you a liar. Sale wasn't able to to that in 2019. Sale has posted 2.4 bWAR this year already. But no way in Hell did anyone see that coming after he posted 2.6 bWAR total from 2020 through 2023.

 

What exactly was a realistic expectation of the "plenty to gain"?

[Bellhorn04]

Hypothetical question: if Sam Kennedy said that one of the biggest reasons they traded Sale was to cut $10 million from the payroll, would that change some opinions of how the move is viewed?

[notin]

Sale also only had one guaranteed year left.

 

It's looks an awful lot like Sale was not happy with that and wanted either his option picked up or an extension.

 

Certainly the Sox could have ignored him and let him pitch. But is flat out ignoring hm the best option here, too?

[Bellhorn04]

So $27mill is an acceptable gamble for a longshot?

 

You're just not grasping the facts here. The Red Sox are paying $17 mill, so the cost of keeping him was $10 mill.

[Bellhorn04]

It's looks an awful lot like Sale was not happy with that and wanted either his option picked up or an extension.

 

Where are you getting that from?

[Old Red]

So $27mill is an acceptable gamble for a longshot?

 

I still see people citing $10mill for Garrett Richards and Kluber as bad deals.

 

And honestly, after 5 years since his last full season, with multiple injuries, what did you expect Sale's ceiling to be? If you say "obviously he was going to jump right back in and pitch like he did in 2017 and 2018," I'm going to (politely) call you a liar. Sale wasn't able to to that in 2019. Sale has posted 2.4 bWAR this year already. But no way in Hell did anyone see that coming after he posted 2.6 bWAR total from 2020 through 2023.

 

What exactly was a realistic expectation of the "plenty to gain"?

If Atlanta would have taken on all of Sale’s salary that’s one thing, but they didn’t, and that’s been my biggest gripe from the start. Only shedding $10M after signing Gio was not worth it to me.

[notin]

Hypothetical question: if Sam Kennedy said that one of the biggest reasons they traded Sale was to cut $10 million from the payroll, would that change some opinions of how the move is viewed?

 

I think it was obvious this was solely done to cut payroll. No one is disputing that.

 

But if given the choice on who to deal to cut payroll, would you have preferred the Sox dealt Sale? Or Jansen? Or Martin?

[Old Red]

It's looks an awful lot like Sale was not happy with that and wanted either his option picked up or an extension.

 

Certainly the Sox could have ignored him and let him pitch. But is flat out ignoring hm the best option here, too?

 

Sale was in no position to ask for either, and there has been NO report out there that he did.

[dgalehouse]

so you are saying we should cut the payroll even further? How did the Rangers, Astros, and even the Blue Jays do last year with those payrolls?? Nice cherrypicking though.

 

Max has an agenda. He will say that Dombrowski was only successful because he spent money. And poor Bloom wasn't allowed to. The next day, he will make an eight thousand-word post explaining why money doesn't matter. Teams win without spending and vice versa. And other like-minded posters agree without seeing the contradiction.

[notin]

Where are you getting that from?

 

Atlanta extended him 3 days after the trade, without seeing him pitch. Considering Sale's recent history, doesn't that seem a bit impulsive? When a player is extended so quickly after the trade (or has an option picked up), it almost always means that extension was necessary in order to get the player to approve the trade. Why else do it so quickly?

[notin]

Sale was in no position to ask for either, and there has been NO report out there that he did.

 

The lack of a report means nothing.

 

Atlanta extended an oft-injured pitcher for 2 years long before spring training and only 3 days after the trade. This almost always means the extension was necessary in order to get the player to approve the trade...

[mvp 78]

Max has an agenda. He will say that Dombrowski was only successful because he spent money. And poor Bloom wasn't allowed to. The next day, he will make an eight thousand-word post explaining why money doesn't matter. Teams win without spending and vice versa. And other like-minded posters agree without seeing the contradiction.

 

Who?

[notin]

You're just not grasping the facts here. The Red Sox are paying $17 mill, so the cost of keeping him was $10 mill.

 

OK, but what should the expectation have been?

[notin]

If Atlanta would have taken on all of Sale’s salary that’s one thing, but they didn’t, and that’s been my biggest gripe from the start. Only shedding $10M after signing Gio was not worth it to me.

 

Yes, getting Atlanta to take on more salary would have been better. But given Sale's performance the last few seasons, that simply did not seem likely. Unless maybe we took back evem less in return.

[Old Red]

The lack of a report means nothing.

 

Atlanta extended an oft-injured pitcher for 2 years long before spring training and only 3 days after the trade. This almost always means the extension was necessary in order to get the player to approve the trade...

From all the reports I read it was all Atlanta’s doing on the extension, and not Anything from Sale asking for, or demanding. A lack of a report saying Sale was demanding does mean something.

[mvp 78]

Handpicked? I can only name a handful of the multiyear extensions given to players so early. If you have other examples, I am all ears/eyes...

 

Zero service time: Eloy, Luis Robert, Colt Keith, Evan White, Kingery, Singleton

 

50 or less: Salvador Perez, Rafaela, Carroll, Longoria, Matt Moore

 

Others: Lowe 58, Harris II 81, Franco 104, Tim Anderson 115, DeJong 124, Julio Rodriguez 141, Archer 156, Acuna 165

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I don’t know if the Sale deal was being worked on when they signed Gio, but either way Sale is gone for only $10M. Right Now the deal looks bad, but could change if Grissom works out, but right now is what matters most at the moment. If the Sox brass didn’t care about this year then why sign Gio at all?

 

To get through another two seasons, so they can hold games at Fenway, sell tickets and concessions, and show ads to NESN viewers.

 

Remember, with the opt out in his contract, the best case Giolito scenario is that he'd somehow wind back the clock to 2021, lead the Boston to one postseason, and then the Red Sox would get a draft pick when he leaves.

 

But is it really feasible the Sox were outsmarting every other team by paying $19 million and expecting that to happen?

 

Maybe the most realistic outcome is that Gio the workhorse would help preserve some bullpen arms for when the Red Sox were good again (though most relievers are year-to-year, anyway).