Red Sox 2024 Spring Training

[mvp 78]

And so it goes…

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/03/red-sox-chris-murphy-ligament-damage-elbow-surgery.html

 

 

We knew this was possible. The SP depth was pretty thin even before Murphy…

 

If Murphy was starting, this team was going to be in a rough spot.

 

Last year in AAA

Starter: 8.35 ERA, 2.05 WHIP, 36.2 Innings

Reliever: 1.69 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 16.0 Innings

 

Small samples, but he has never really been a good starter.

[sk7326]

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/39763512/sources-mlbpa-call-majority-players-ask-removal-bruce-meyer

 

Very interesting read.

 

He did not force the players to not sign. That said, during the CBA negotiations I kept wondering why the players were not getting more assurances for $$ visibility from the owners. I was floored when the players allowed the CBT tax lines to not be tied to revenue. All of the conditions that resulted in the players (likely) in baseball getting the smallest share of the pie of the major sportsball players groups were still there.

[sk7326]

Much agreed. Trevor is showing some decent bat so far and is a plus factor in the field , possibly on the bases. Devers is hitting well, as is Wong. Casa is having a rough ST but Jarren Duran is carrying his weight so far. The trouble is all these guys were major parts of a 78-84 team a year ago. None of the "rookies" has had a breakthrough ST to show they truly belong at the MLB level yet It would be nice if a couple or three can make the next step over this season. Cedanne Rafaelaa is the closest based on Spring results.

And perennial suspect Bobby Dalbec has bashed some balls but has no real position skills.

 

Story has had a solid spring. The most important thing Rafaela has shown is that he is capable of not swinging from time to time - or at least some improvement therein. If he can be a .310 OBP with the power he can generate and the way he can play CF, he could make a serious Rookie of the Year run.

[Bellhorn04]

Story has had a solid spring. The most important thing Rafaela has shown is that he is capable of not swinging from time to time - or at least some improvement therein. If he can be a .310 OBP with the power he can generate and the way he can play CF, he could make a serious Rookie of the Year run.

 

Love it.

[mvp 78]

@IanMBrowne

Kenley Jansen was again scratched today with lower back tightness. He needs to get right in the next day or two to start the season on the active roster.

 

Starting the year on the IL IMO.

[notin]

Story has had a solid spring. The most important thing Rafaela has shown is that he is capable of not swinging from time to time - or at least some improvement therein. If he can be a .310 OBP with the power he can generate and the way he can play CF, he could make a serious Rookie of the Year run.

 

I wonder who are the most likely other candidates. The NL is fielding some top prospects, all named "Jackson" and all apparently starting in CF. But who else in the AL? Will Jackson Holliday be a candidate? Will each league have a ROY named "Jackson"?

[sk7326]

I wonder who are the most likely other candidates. The NL is fielding some top prospects, all named "Jackson" and all apparently starting in CF. But who else in the AL? Will Jackson Holliday be a candidate? Will each league have a ROY named "Jackson"?

 

Holliday has to be the favorite if/when he comes up.

 

I think Abreu could also get some love if the power is there. But he should be good defensively in RF and he has a good approach at the plate. Whether he is a .240 hitter or a .260 hitter will make a big difference there.

[notin]

Holliday has to be the favorite if/when he comes up.

 

I think Abreu could also get some love if the power is there. But he should be good defensively in RF and he has a good approach at the plate. Whether he is a .240 hitter or a .260 hitter will make a big difference there.

 

I don't really think Abreu is going to make himself a candidate, and I hope that his candidacy doesn't rest on that 10 hit difference (in 500 ABs).

 

Evan Carter still qualifies as a rookie. And his potential teammate Wyatt Langford seems to be another big name. I've seen Langford play a couple times this summer, and I wouldn't call his fielding atrocious, but I think with some work he can get to that level. Colt Keith (Tigers) and Nolan Schanuel (Angels) appear to have starting jobs as well.

 

The NL has the Jacksons (Chourio and Merrill) along with two Japanese imports that could take the award...

[vegasbob]

@IanMBrowne

Kenley Jansen was again scratched today with lower back tightness. He needs to get right in the next day or two to start the season on the active roster.

 

Starting the year on the IL IMO.

 

Kenley is realistically no part of a plan for muti-year pitching in Boston ( age/physical deterioration/cost) . Probably should have been moved off season, but likely not many takers offering value. Now he will need to rehab and pitch his way back to some level of trade value by late July. Otherwise , another low value, but higher priced guy on a team that will struggle to seriously compete .

[moonslav59]

I don't really think Abreu is going to make himself a candidate, and I hope that his candidacy doesn't rest on that 10 hit difference (in 500 ABs).

 

I realize Abreu may very well flop or become nothing more than a 4th OF'er type, but I still have hopes he becomes a good to very good OF'er. He's only a year older than Rafaela, who seems to have much more upside due to being so raw and having great defensive skills.

 

Abreu is already pretty disciplined, despite having his share of K's. He had a .372 OBP in the minors (over .390 in AA and AAA.) He was one of the best hitters in all of minor league baseball in 2022. I think his "upside" is often underappreciated, but of course he may end up not being all that good, too.

 

In a season like we are looking at for the Sox in 2024, I would look forward to seeing Rafaela near FT in CF and Abreu near FT in RF, even if just to see what they can offer. Of course, that would force bench time or a trade on one from Duran or O'Neill (or maybe Yoshida,) but I'd be more interested. (I may be alone on this.)

 

[moonslav59]

Kenley is realistically no part of a plan for muti-year pitching in Boston ( age/physical deterioration/cost) . Probably should have been moved off season, but likely not many takers offering value. Now he will need to rehab and pitch his way back to some level of trade value by late July. Otherwise , another low value, but higher priced guy on a team that will struggle to seriously compete .

 

I think we could have gotten some value for Jansen had we pitched in $2-6M of the $16 owed him. Maybe that $10-12M saved could have helped us sign Monty. (yeah, right, huh?)

[vegasbob]

Finally, an afterthought comment including Yoshida (see Moon's above). In only his second year of a 5 year $18 million per deal (plus posting fee) this guy needs to become a significant part of the offense since his less than stellar fielding abilities have relegated him to DH status. His 2024 ST has not shined a bright light on even those abilities. This guy could help somewhere in mid lineup #5/6/7 by getting on base and the occasional 2B/HR. I would say he is somewhat untradable so he needs to perform. Good luck, Yoshi , please hit .300/.800

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Finally, an afterthought comment including Yoshida (see Moon's above). In only his second year of a 5 year $18 million per deal (plus posting fee) this guy needs to become a significant part of the offense since his less than stellar fielding abilities have relegated him to DH status. His 2024 ST has not shined a bright light on even those abilities. This guy could help somewhere in mid lineup #5/6/7 by getting on base and the occasional 2B/HR. I would say he is somewhat untradable so he needs to perform. Good luck, Yoshi , please hit .300/.800

 

Rafaela's going to make the club, so needs a lower uniform number. Maybe he can swap his current jersey with Yoshida (who else has ever looked as well-suited for...43?)

[mvp 78]

I wonder who are the most likely other candidates. The NL is fielding some top prospects, all named "Jackson" and all apparently starting in CF. But who else in the AL? Will Jackson Holliday be a candidate? Will each league have a ROY named "Jackson"?

 

Kjerstad, Caminero, Manzardo, Schanuel, Carter

[dgalehouse]

And so it goes…

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/03/red-sox-chris-murphy-ligament-damage-elbow-surgery.html

 

 

We knew this was possible. The SP depth was pretty thin even before Murphy…

 

Once again we are hearing some noise about the pitch clock contributing to pitcher's injuries. Nick Pivetta ( Sox union rep) doing some complaining about it too.

[mvp 78]

Once again we are hearing some noise about the pitch clock contributing to pitcher's injuries. Nick Pivetta ( Sox union rep) doing some complaining about it too.

 

It's not the pitch clock. It's the increase in pitcher velo.

 

Murphy was noted to have increased his velo this offseason.

 

Watched part of an interview that Chris Bassitt did and he had a similar take:

 

 

To me, if you are trying to maximize the performance of the human body, it's going to breakdown at some point.

[vegasbob]

Yoshida continues to compete for the Suckitude award of ST 2024. .189/.683, more K's (7) than BB's (5). But 4 of his 7 meager hits have been for XB's so he is muscling up. But then so is Bobby Dalbec

[Duran Is The Man]

Yoshida continues to compete for the Suckitude award of ST 2024. .189/.683, more K's (7) than BB's (5). But 4 of his 7 meager hits have been for XB's so he is muscling up. But then so is Bobby Dalbec

 

He’s still adjusting to a new country, culture, etc. He’ll be fine in 4-5 years.

[moonslav59]

Some STing Numbers:

OPS w 25+ PAs

1.302 Wong (8 XBHs)

1.175 Devers

1.022 Sogard (not on 40)

1.000 Story

 

.965 Westbrook (not on 40)

.923 O'Neill

.907 Rafaela (2nd most PAs in ST) 8 XBHs

.866 Dalbec (2nd in HRs and RBIs to Devers)

.849 Duran

.828 Contreras (not on 40)

 

.713 Casas

.694 EVladez

.670 R Gonzalez (4 SBs)

.666 Reyes

.653 Yoshida

.639 Abreu (most PAs in ST)

.637 McGuire

 

.329 DHam

.322 Yorke

 

Best ERA

12+ IP (K:BB)

1.98 Crawford (13:0)

2.40 Houck (16:3)

3.45 Whitlock (16:2)

3.77 Criswell (13:3)

3.95 Winckowski (8:2)

4.85 Bello (11:5)

5.25 Pivetts (13:3)

 

4-11 IP

0.00 Hagenman (8:1)

0.00 Campbell (7:2)

0.00 Bernardino (4:1)

0.00 Slaten (6:1)

 

1.77 Weissert (9:3)

1.93 Walter (4:1)

2.25 Booser (8:0)

2.25 Luetge (10:3)

2.25 Benitez (14:5)

2.57 Joely (9:3)

 

3.86 Murphy (11:4)

4.95 Shugart (4:2)

 

8.31 Giolito (2:4)

8.44 Jacques (6:4)

 

 

[sk7326]

I realize Abreu may very well flop or become nothing more than a 4th OF'er type, but I still have hopes he becomes a good to very good OF'er. He's only a year older than Rafaela, who seems to have much more upside due to being so raw and having great defensive skills.

 

Abreu is already pretty disciplined, despite having his share of K's. He had a .372 OBP in the minors (over .390 in AA and AAA.) He was one of the best hitters in all of minor league baseball in 2022. I think his "upside" is often underappreciated, but of course he may end up not being all that good, too.

 

In a season like we are looking at for the Sox in 2024, I would look forward to seeing Rafaela near FT in CF and Abreu near FT in RF, even if just to see what they can offer. Of course, that would force bench time or a trade on one from Duran or O'Neill (or maybe Yoshida,) but I'd be more interested. (I may be alone on this.)

 

 

One thing is his corner is that he has made adjustments at every level to get better ... he has the aptitude to improve.

[moonslav59]

One thing is his corner is that he has made adjustments at every level to get better ... he has the aptitude to improve.

 

If he & Rafaela bust out, this year could get very interesting.

 

(We might also be able to trade Duran for a pitcher or O'Neill for something useful.)

[vegasbob]

He’s still adjusting to a new country, culture, etc. He’ll be fine in 4-5 years.

 

Yoshi, undoubtedly , will have a breakout opening set of series on the West Coast since he will be 3 hours closer to his home country. I could see.405/1.009 with 16 hits, 10 walks, 12 rbi's, and OBP of nearly .490 in the first 10 games.

Edited March 20, 2024 by vegasbob

[moonslav59]

Some Starting Pitchers who signed minor league deals, this winter:

Domingo German

Jake Odorizzi

Brad Keller

Eric Lauer

Carlos Carrasco

Julio Teheran

Danny Duffy

Zach Davies

Chase Anderson

Jose Urina

[moonslav59]

ST OPS Leaders in MLB (30+ PAs)

1.476 O Cruz (6 more PAs than Wong)

1.302 Wong

1.271 A Kirk

1.257 M Dubon

1.252 Dane Myers

1.251 C Cowser

1.243 A Hicks

1.241 Rizzo

1.219 MJ Melendez

1.214 J Polanco

1.200 Merrifield

1.198 W Langford

1.196 Springer

1.175 Devers

 

[vegasbob]

Will Duran be a starter in LF ( or CF) in order to bat leadoff and get a fast runner on base in front of Devers , Casas and Story ? Then Yoshi, as a better OBP type, in front of Wong/McGuire then Rafaela/Abreu . 2B will be hitting 9th at least until Grissom can play.

[moonslav59]

Will Duran be a starter in LF ( or CF) in order to bat leadoff and get a fast runner on base in front of Devers , Casas and Story ? Then Yoshi, as a better OBP type, in front of Wong/McGuire then Rafaela/Abreu . 2B will be hitting 9th at least until Grissom can play.

 

I think most games...

 

LF O'Neil

CF Duran

RF Abreu

 

but maybe...

 

LF Duran

CF Rafaela

RF O'Neill

[mvp 78]

If he & Rafaela bust out, this year could get very interesting.

 

(We might also be able to trade Duran for a pitcher or O'Neill for something useful.)

 

I'm content with just leaving O'Neillllll on the bench if it comes down to it. A starting OF of Abreu/Rafaela/Duran is athletic as all get out. No reason to trade Duran until a guy like Anthony is ready to take his spot. Even then, it may turn out that keeping all 4 works out best and you just use Abreu as the 4th OFer.

[mvp 78]

Yoshi, undoubtedly , will have a breakout opening set of series on the West Coast since he will be 3 hours closer to his home country. I could see.405/1.009 with 16 hits, 10 walks, 12 rbi's, and OBP of nearly .490 in the first 10 games.

 

Repeat of Mar/Apr '23 Duvall.

[mvp 78]

I think most games...

 

LF O'Neil

CF Duran

RF Abreu

 

but maybe...

 

LF Duran

CF Rafaela

RF O'Neill

 

I think the ST lineups with Duran in RF are just to get Masa reps in LF. Duran in RF in Fenway would need a cutoff to get the ball to 2B. He had a runner tag from 2B to 3B on him last weekend when he was playing LF on a ball that wasn't even deep.

[Bellhorn04]

It's not the pitch clock. It's the increase in pitcher velo.

 

Murphy was noted to have increased his velo this offseason.

 

Watched part of an interview that Chris Bassitt did and he had a similar take:

 

 

To me, if you are trying to maximize the performance of the human body, it's going to breakdown at some point.

 

And isn't a big part of Breslow and Bailey's approach to increase the velo?