Chris Sale traded to Braves

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, notin said:

Maybe they can get more, but from a team willing to take on Lopez’ entire contract?

 

And yes, Arias over Hamilton is absolutely not a deal breaker for me…

I was assuming the Abreu+DHam for Lopez deal, involved us paying full price.

[Randy Red Sox]

6 hours ago, notin said:

Trading is a tough method, because the Sox want everyone that other teams would ask for to be unyouchable.  As far as I can tell, the only worthwhile players the Sox would move are Abreu and Hamilton.  Nice players both, but would any team unloading pitching need a RF and a 2b?

 

One strong possibility on all fronts is the Twins.  Word on the cyber streets is they’re looking to move the contract of Pablo Lopez (3 years $65.2mill.)  And the Twins also have vacancies in RF and 2b.  (To be fair, they had the vacancy at 2b for most of not all of last season.  And Lopez (38.6) is a good match for Abreu (30.3) and Hamilton (11.4).   

i dont know much at all about Lopez but his stats look ok if a trade involves Abreu and or Hamilton.

[Randy Red Sox]

7 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I think Nick Martinez realizes this is the time to get years and dollars.

I think he, along with maybe Flaherty and Kikuchi might be in our price range, and if we do get Scott, we won't be spending real big on a SP'er. (Maybe a trade for a cheaper one?)

the perfect recipe for another.500 season

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

the perfect recipe for another.500 season

Could be.

Adding Kikuchi, or Flaherty plus Nick Martinez & Scott should get us to above .500 and into the playoffs, but knowing our luck, we'll be at .500 again.

I would say ...

Kikuchi>  Pivetta

Martinez > the scrub pen games

Scott> 2024 Jansen

Hendriks> 2024 Martin

Gio might push someone to the pen.

Story > Rafaela at SS

Anthony, Campbell, Mayer and others > what we had in 2024.

I think adding 3 like this is about the minimum  we could do to make me have hope for 2025.

[moonslav59]

15 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

i dont know much at all about Lopez but his stats look ok if a trade involves Abreu and or Hamilton.

Well, 32 GS for 3 years in a row is nice.

ERA+ of 114 since 2020 (3.70 ERA and 3.48 FIP)

1.165 WHIP

10 Ks per 9

4.2 K/BB

13th in fWAR. Is that a number one, to you.

Top 20 in FIP and xFIP

His 89 ERA- is better than Nola, Kirby & Gilbert and just a little worse than Nate & Rodon

This guy is for real.

He's only 28 (Turns 29 in June.)

[Bellhorn04]

21 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

On "noone is accusing JH of going Pohlad," i disagree, and the couple posters who keep saying they think JH will continue to cut and cut until we are a small market like spender is who most of my posts are directly responding to.

When we're feeling really pessimistic we tend to engage in hyperbole.  

I read almost all the posts here, and I really don't think there's anyone actually saying, in seriousness, that they expect our payroll to keep going down until we're the Pirates. 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

When we're feeling really pessimistic we tend to engage in hyperbole.  

I read almost all the posts here, and I really don't think there's anyone actually saying, in seriousness, that they expect our payroll to keep going down until we're the Pirates. 

Maybe not the Pirates, but we are already near or under the halfway mark, depending on who you use as a source. Bottom 10 tier is where I think a couple posters think we are headed.

I am answering the couple posters who are saying we will be cutting the budget, like it's a done deal.

My position is, we don't know, and that I am not expecting an increase.

JH's trend has been to go up and down. It went up in '21 and '22 (yes from a massive down in '20.) I'm not sure why some are so sure it will keep going down.

The rankings aspect does depend on what other teams do. I'm not sure many of the bottom 10 teams are going to start spending big, all of  a sudden, so I'm not so sure we can or will keep dropping, unless JH does "keep cutting."

I'm still holding onto a hope that someday JH spends big, again, but I doubt it is this winter, and I won't be surprised if he never does again. The outlays made for Story, Yoshida and Devers can be seen as encouraging, in terms of a willingness to spend on single players, but within the context of what we lost, it barely a drop in the bucket.

Here is what has changed. Back in 2017 & 2018, we had a bunch of young and low cost players filling the roster, and some high-priced players filling the gaps. We knew the young players would be reaching their big paydays, and some sort of day of reckoning was going to happen. The young player spigot ran dry between Devers and Houck, but DD was able to use some over-hyped prospects to fill other gaps via key trades. 

After 2018, the dynamic changed, more quickly than almost all of us thought it would. The prospect pipeline began to help, some, but we had too many holes to fill. I think JH saw this and felt like the amount of spending needed to get us back to glory, quickly was just too much. The 2021 season might have made him think he didn't need to spend to be "good enough" to keep fans happy.

Now, I see a solid young foundation at the ML level, with very few players even just starting their arb years. The situation is actually quite remarkable, in this sense. The next "day of reckoning is more than 3 years away, in terms of players on the 26, now. Couple this with a top 2-3 farm system in all of MLB, and I find it hard to imagine this not being viewed as a window opening. IMO, it can begin in 2025, with just 3 targeted additions that could be expensive or if we fill 1-2 slots by trade, costly in terms of advanced future outlooks.

It really is crucial for JH to allow spending and or big trades to happen, again. When and if he does is the million dollar question. We may be able to get close with just minimal investment and shrewd management, but I think we all feel something bold needs to be done to get us over the top. Almost all our past rings took something bold, with maybe 2013 being the exception... maybe.

I hope JH realizes how close we are, and that windows rarely stay open as long as we hope they do. To me, the time is NOW. With JH, the question is...

 

"How Soon Is Now?"

[notin]

16 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

i never said to sign either Fried or Burnes. Check the facts on Martinez.  He is WELL KNOWN to take short term contracts with opt out clauses and at least recently has always exercised his opt out.

Martinez has only signed two MLB contracts in his career - a 3 year $26mill deal with San Diego (which he completed) and a 2 year deal with Cincy in which he is likely to exercise an opt out for the first time in his career.

i don’t mind if the Sox sign him for 2-3 years.  That’s preferable to signing Burnes or Fried to 7+…

[moonslav59]

35 minutes ago, notin said:

Martinez has only signed two MLB contracts in his career - a 3 year $26mill deal with San Diego (which he completed) and a 2 year deal with Cincy in which he is likely to exercise an opt out for the first time in his career.

i don’t mind if the Sox sign him for 2-3 years.  That’s preferable to signing Burnes or Fried to 7+…

Trade for Pablo Lopez, sign Martinez, Scott and Hoffman, add a decent defensive catcher, and wait for the kids to steal some FT jobs from this opening day roster (assuming Abreu, Arias and Dobbins for Lopez.)

C: __add__ & Wong (Teel?)

1B: Casas (Devers, if Campbell, Meidroth or Grissom to 3B)

2B: Grissom-DHam platoon (Campbell)

SS: Story, Romy (Mayer)

3B: Devers (Campbell or Meidroth)

LF: Duran-Refsnyder

CF: Rafaela-Duran (Campbell)

RF: Anthony (Campbell)

DH: Yoshida-Refsnyder (E Valdez)

SP: Lopez, Houck, Martinez, Bello, Gio-Crawford (Fitts, Priester, Criswell)

RP: Scott, Hoffman, Hendriks, Whitlock, Slaten, Crawford, Criswell, Fulmer/Fitts/Guerrero/Wink/Bernardino/Weissert/Penrod/I Campbell/Kelly

Call me a homer, but to me, this looks real good. Plus, it's not so expensive that it seems undoable. AAV: $18.4 Lopez, $15.2M Scott, $11.3M Martinez, $9.1M Hoffman = under $55M

If we can dump Yoshida and save $7M a year, the total AAV add would be about $47M, which would be under the tax line.

 

[Randy Red Sox]

3 hours ago, notin said:

Martinez has only signed two MLB contracts in his career - a 3 year $26mill deal with San Diego (which he completed) and a 2 year deal with Cincy in which he is likely to exercise an opt out for the first time in his career.

i don’t mind if the Sox sign him for 2-3 years.  That’s preferable to signing Burnes or Fried to 7+…

you need to go MLBTR a few days back and read the post on Martinez. He took a 4yr deal with opt outs each year and opted out twic although he did resign the first time.. Then he also opted out with the Reds.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Randy Red Sox said:

you need to go MLBTR a few days back and read the post on Martinez. He took a 4yr deal with opt outs each year and opted out twic although he did resign the first time.. Then he also opted out with the Reds.

You are correct. While he did stay with the same team, it was not on the original contract.

[notin]

1 hour ago, Randy Red Sox said:

you need to go MLBTR a few days back and read the post on Martinez. He took a 4yr deal with opt outs each year and opted out twic although he did resign the first time.. Then he also opted out with the Reds.

He’s also 35 and a short term fix.  Let him opt out…

[moonslav59]

19 minutes ago, notin said:

He’s also 35 and a short term fix.  Let him opt out…

He turns 35 in August

[Bellhorn04]

19 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Trade for Pablo Lopez, sign Martinez, Scott and Hoffman, add a decent defensive catcher, and wait for the kids to steal some FT jobs from this opening day roster (assuming Abreu, Arias and Dobbins for Lopez.)

C: __add__ & Wong (Teel?)

1B: Casas (Devers, if Campbell, Meidroth or Grissom to 3B)

2B: Grissom-DHam platoon (Campbell)

SS: Story, Romy (Mayer)

3B: Devers (Campbell or Meidroth)

LF: Duran-Refsnyder

CF: Rafaela-Duran (Campbell)

RF: Anthony (Campbell)

DH: Yoshida-Refsnyder (E Valdez)

SP: Lopez, Houck, Martinez, Bello, Gio-Crawford (Fitts, Priester, Criswell)

RP: Scott, Hoffman, Hendriks, Whitlock, Slaten, Crawford, Criswell, Fulmer/Fitts/Guerrero/Wink/Bernardino/Weissert/Penrod/I Campbell/Kelly

Call me a homer, but to me, this looks real good. Plus, it's not so expensive that it seems undoable. AAV: $18.4 Lopez, $15.2M Scott, $11.3M Martinez, $9.1M Hoffman = under $55M

If we can dump Yoshida and save $7M a year, the total AAV add would be about $47M, which would be under the tax line.

 

Just looking at Lopez's numbers, and there's not much to dislike.  About as solid and consistent as you could ask for in this day and age.    

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Just looking at Lopez's numbers, and there's not much to dislike.  About as solid and consistent as you could ask for in this day and age.    

His contract is better than a FA contract, but is the "savings" worth trading good players for, when we can just pay a bit more and get an equal or near equal pitchers as a FA?

[mvp 78]

28 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

His contract is better than a FA contract, but is the "savings" worth trading good players for, when we can just pay a bit more and get an equal or near equal pitchers as a FA?

It would depend on what the trade is, but I would just simply add via FA if I could.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

It would depend on what the trade is, but I would just simply add via FA if I could.

Agreed.

Trading for Lopez to save $5-10M a year on a similar FA pitcher seems like a lot to give up to make happen.

This kind of begs the question, just how much should any team give to get Lopez, if they can just spend $5M or so more per year to get a FA pitcher as good as he is?

I'd prefer to trade Abreu for a cheap and solid RP'er with 3-4+ years of control, and then trade DHam for a one year catcher. Just sign a SP'er and Closer.

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

It would depend on what the trade is, but I would just simply add via FA if I could.

 

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Agreed.

Trading for Lopez to save $5-10M a year on a similar FA pitcher seems like a lot to give up to make happen.

This kind of begs the question, just how much should any team give to get Lopez, if they can just spend $5M or so more per year to get a FA pitcher as good as he is?

I'd prefer to trade Abreu for a cheap and solid RP'er with 3-4+ years of control, and then trade DHam for a one year catcher. Just sign a SP'er and Closer.

 

What Sox should do is trade for the next Pablo Lopez and extend him. Not the guy who has already been extended and played 2 years. 

[notin]

25 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

What Sox should do is trade for the next Pablo Lopez and extend him. Not the guy who has already been extended and played 2 years. 

Or … extend Houck and Crawford and maybe stop prioritizing other team’s prospects that might or might not work out over the ones we already have that are working out…

[mvp 78]

18 minutes ago, notin said:

Or … extend Houck and Crawford and maybe stop prioritizing other team’s prospects that might or might not work out over the ones we already have that are working out…

How does that make the Sox better? 

Why extend a 4/5 starter like Crawford? 

[Bellhorn04]

Houck and Crawford are majorly late bloomers.    

They won't reach free agency until ages 32 and 33 respectively.

 

[moonslav59]

Trading for Ober or Ryan makes more sense.

[Old Red]

Congratulations to Chris CY YOUNG Sale for winning the NL 2024 CY Young award. What a gracious gift it was from the Red Sox to the Braves courtesy of JH, and Brez the Prez.

[notin]

On 11/3/2024 at 7:25 AM, Bellhorn04 said:

When we're feeling really pessimistic we tend to engage in hyperbole.  

I read almost all the posts here, and I really don't think there's anyone actually saying, in seriousness, that they expect our payroll to keep going down until we're the Pirates. 

That depends - do you mean Pittsburgh or Seton Hall?

[notin]

On 11/4/2024 at 3:37 PM, moonslav59 said:

Trading for Ober or Ryan makes more sense.

But trading them away from a team that was in the postseason hunt until the final week of the season does make less sense.

Ober and Ryan might make a combined $8mill next season.  Pablo Lopez makes a guaranteed $21.75 million per year for the next 3 seasons

 

 

 

[Old Red]

From the Bad Karma, and being Frail Sale in Boston to mister CY Young in Atlanta. Who could have saw that coming? Atlanta.🤫