Red Sox ownership

[Hugh2]

what is payroll this year? about mid-pack and 50-60M under the tax line? remember kids, a million saved is a million more in Johnny's pocket.

 

$224,730,000.00 about $12.3 million under the tax line.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm not happy being even $10M under the tax line.

 

It sucks, and it shouldn't be this way.

 

That being said, if just half of our biggest contracts worked out fine, we'd be knocking on the playoff door, loudly.

 

We're down to 3 big ones now-Devers, Story and Yoshida.

[mvp 78]

$224,730,000.00 about $12.3 million under the tax line.

 

The estimate on SoxProspects is higher than Cots ($208) or Spotrac ($219). The "other costs" are much higher than elsewhere which minimize the amount under the CBT.

[Nick]

We will never spend like LAD.

 

Maybe the Mets might, someday.

 

I'd be happy with #4-6 in 2025.

 

Our gross revenue is no where near the Dodgers.

[Bellhorn04]

Our gross revenue is no where near the Dodgers.

 

According to Forbes it's about 10% less than the Dodgers.

 

https://www.forbes.com/mlb-valuations/list/

[Duran Is The Man]

According to Forbes it's about 10% less than the Dodgers.

 

https://www.forbes.com/mlb-valuations/list/

 

can someone explain to me how the Dodgers only take a $2M hit on Ohtani's $70M salary. i know it's "deferred" but what the hell? is this a Bobby Bonilla deal where they pay him $2M for the next four hundred years?

[moonslav59]

We're down to 3 big ones now-Devers, Story and Yoshida.

 

Yes, that is a significant factor, but to me, underperformance by our higher paid players is number 1 on my list of reasons we can't get beyond .500 or sniff the playoffs. Granted $10M/1 is not a "big contract," but those have been among the top 10 on the team over the last few years.

 

While we had way more higher paid players in 2019, the underperformances began, then:

(Note: while a $4M deal is not "big," i included all deals of $4 or more to show the shifts from large to medium and sub medium. The line demarks the top 10 salaries, each year)

Red= Underperformed, injured or both

 

31 Price 22 GS 4.28

22 JD

21 Porcello 5.52 ERA

20 Betts

17 Nate 12 GS 5.99

14 Pedey 21 PAs

15 Sale 25 GS 4.40

12 Bogey

9 JBJ

7 Moreland

6 Pearce 99 PAs .503 OPS

6 Vaz

5 Nunez 174 PAs .548 OPS

4 ERod/Holt

 

2020 was when the full throttle purge began, but injuries and declines continued:

26 Sale No show

22 JD .680

20 Bogey

17 Nate Made 9 of 12 starts

14 Pedey No show

11 JBJ

8 E Rod No show

7 Perez 4.50 not really underperforming exp's.

5 Beni only 52 PAs .442

5 Vaz

4 Pillar (Traded)

4 Workman (Traded for Pivetta)

 

2021 saw some improved health and bounce back years:

25 Sale 9GS

22 JD

20 Bogey

17 Nate

10 Richards 22 GS 4.87 demoted to pen

9 Ottavino 4.21 was not much below expectations

8 ERod 4.74 ERA is high for him

7 Kike

5 Perez 4.74 about as expected

5 Barnes Fell apart last 2 months

5 Vaz .659

5 Devers

 

2022 brought the Story contract and the $5-10M one deals:

26 Sale 2GS

23 Story

22 JD .790 & 74 RBI

20 Bogey 73 RBI

17 Nate

12 JBJ .578

11 Devers

10 Paxton No show

9 Barnes 4.31

7 Kike

7 Vaz

7 Wacha 23 GS about expected, but pitched well

5 Hill 26 GS and 4.27 ERA

 

2023 was the questionable choice to stay over $16M under the tax line.

26 Sale 20 GS 4.30

23 Story 168 PAs .566

18 Devers

18 Yoshida .783 not horrible, but...

16 Jansen

11 Turner

10 Kike 323 PAs .599 (Traded)

10 Kluber 9GS 7.07

9 Barnes + Blier ugly

8 Martin

7 Duvall Just 353 PAs but did well

6 Verdugo A bit of a let down but kept in black (balanced Duvall)

5 Pivetta

4 Paxton 19 GS 4.50 (had a nice stretch)

 

2024: the inexplicable further cuts to the budget.

Jury is out on some, but we know some are toasted)

29 Devers

23 Story Out

19 Gio Out

18 Yoshida To late to redeem

16 Jansen ???

9 Bello So far, a letdown

8 Martin So far, a letdown

8 Pivetta Missed some time

6 O'Neill Missed some time

5 Hendriks Out until AUG

5 Whitlock Out

(None between 2.1 and 4.6)

 

The RED really shows the #1 issue.

 

By year in RED:

5 of top 7 '19

7 of top 9 '20 worst year

4 of top 7 '21 best record in 5 years and least RED (4 in top 10)

8 out of 10 '22

6 out of 9 '23

3 out of top 4, already

Edited June 5, 2024 by moonslav59

[Bellhorn04]

can someone explain to me how the Dodgers only take a $2M hit on Ohtani's $70M salary. i know it's "deferred" but what the hell? is this a Bobby Bonilla deal where they pay him $2M for the next four hundred years?

 

The hit for tax purposes for 2024-2033 is actually $46 million.

 

The cash payments are $2 million a year 2024-2033 and $68 million 2034-2043 (feels crazy just typing that).

 

The tax hit is based on the estimated present value of the cash payments.

[moonslav59]

Our gross revenue is no where near the Dodgers.

 

That is one reason we will never near them, unless they choose to make massive cuts.

 

To me, if we just started $5-10M under the tax line every 2-3 years and went over the first line but not the second, 2 out of every 3-4 years, it would be hard to bitch a whole lot. In theory, JH should be able to do something like this:

 

5-10 under

39 over (just under the second line)

10 over (just under 1st line)

reset at 5-10 under

repeat

[Bellhorn04]

That is one reason we will never near them, unless they choose to make massive cuts.

 

Except the revenue gap is not really that big, according to Forbes at least.

 

We're just getting brainwashed by the Sox owners...

[moonslav59]

Except the revenue gap is not really that big, according to Forbes at least.

 

We're just getting brainwashed by the Sox owners...

 

Isn't their TV deal mega more than anyone else, except maybe NYY?

 

I found this for 2023 on fangraphs:

$197 LAD

$143 NYY

$97 BOS

Edited June 5, 2024 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

Isn't their TV deal mega more than anyone else, except maybe NYY?

 

Dodgers don't have the real estate $$$ the way the Sox do, I believe.

[moonslav59]

Dodgers don't have the real estate $$$ the way the Sox do, I believe.

 

Is that "revenue" or just value added to franchise, when sold?

[mvp 78]

Is that "revenue" or just value added to franchise, when sold?

 

It's revenue they earn, typically leasing or rent.

[Duran Is The Man]

The hit for tax purposes for 2024-2033 is actually $46 million.

 

The cash payments are $2 million a year 2024-2033 and $68 million 2034-2043 (feels crazy just typing that).

 

The tax hit is based on the estimated present value of the cash payments.

 

so...the tax hit from 2034-43 is going to be $68M per year?

[moonslav59]

It's revenue they earn, typically leasing or rent.

 

But they rent from themselves, so money made by the real estate side is paid by the operations side of the ledger, right?

[mvp 78]

so...the tax hit from 2034-43 is going to be $68M per year?

 

No, his tax hit is 46M per year through 2033. The cash paid out is different.

[mvp 78]

But they rent from themselves, so money made by the real estate side is paid by the operations side of the ledger, right?

 

No, they own a bunch of real estate around the stadium that they rent to unrelated third parties that goes into the valuation of the Sox and the money the team earns. It has nothing to do with the Sox renting Fenway to themselves.

[Duran Is The Man]

No, his tax hit is 46M per year through 2033. The cash paid out is different.

 

ok, i understand now. thanks.

[Hugh2]

The estimate on SoxProspects is higher than Cots ($208) or Spotrac ($219). The "other costs" are much higher than elsewhere which minimize the amount under the CBT.

 

With their new alliance with Red Sox Payroll, I have a high degree of confidence in their numbers. It's kind of amazing that no one can seemingly get it right.

[mvp 78]

https://www.nbcsportsboston.com/mlb/boston-red-sox/john-henry-red-sox-ownership-sell-team/619510/

 

Here's news many Red Sox fans won't want to hear: John Henry has no plans to sell the team.

 

Some other highlights:

 

Henry held firm on the club's decision to avoid spending heavily in free agency and suggested the fans hold unrealistic expectations.

 

"Because fans expect championships almost annually," he said, "they easily become frustrated and are not going to buy into what the odds actually are: one in 20 or one in 30."

 

He thought the reaction to chairman Tom Werner's comments about going "full throttle" this winter were overblown, but he also seemed to misunderstand fan anger over the state of the big league club.

 

"(Werner's comments) overshadowed every other word, paragraph and interview of the winter because it reaches so deeply into the false belief that many fans and media have that you should mortgage the future each year for the present," he said. "You have to base acquisitions and dispositions on the future, not the past. That is unpopular generally."

 

Henry reiterated a point he has made in the past about his reticence to address fan and media concerns directly.

 

"I don't think people in my position can win publicly -- your words are often used against you -- so the less I say I generally think the better," he said.

 

World Series odds are NOT 1 in 20 let alone 1 in 30. C'mon man!

[moonslav59]

https://www.nbcsportsboston.com/mlb/boston-red-sox/john-henry-red-sox-ownership-sell-team/619510/

 

Here's news many Red Sox fans won't want to hear: John Henry has no plans to sell the team.

 

Some other highlights:

 

Henry held firm on the club's decision to avoid spending heavily in free agency and suggested the fans hold unrealistic expectations.

 

"Because fans expect championships almost annually," he said, "they easily become frustrated and are not going to buy into what the odds actually are: one in 20 or one in 30."

 

He thought the reaction to chairman Tom Werner's comments about going "full throttle" this winter were overblown, but he also seemed to misunderstand fan anger over the state of the big league club.

 

"(Werner's comments) overshadowed every other word, paragraph and interview of the winter because it reaches so deeply into the false belief that many fans and media have that you should mortgage the future each year for the present," he said. "You have to base acquisitions and dispositions on the future, not the past. That is unpopular generally."

 

Henry reiterated a point he has made in the past about his reticence to address fan and media concerns directly.

 

"I don't think people in my position can win publicly -- your words are often used against you -- so the less I say I generally think the better," he said.

 

World Series odds are NOT 1 in 20 let alone 1 in 30. C'mon man!

 

It's not even 1 in 100.

 

These guys really overestimate how good the current team is.

 

I get the talk about fans not valuing the future, but 20 to 30 to 1 is way off base.

[mvp 78]

It's not even 1 in 100.

 

These guys really overestimate how good the current team is.

 

I get the talk about fans not valuing the future, but 20 to 30 to 1 is way off base.

 

His 1 in 30 metric comes from 1 out of 30 MLB teams I think! That's why there's a 1 in 30 chance.

[moonslav59]

His 1 in 30 metric comes from 1 out of 30 MLB teams I think! That's why there's a 1 in 30 chance.

 

I thought of that, too, but then throwin in the 20:1 made me think he felt even 30:1 was for real "odds."

[mvp 78]

I thought of that, too, but then throwin in the 20:1 made me think he felt even 30:1 was for real "odds."

 

I figured he was throwing out the bottom third of teams that realistically have no chance (Rockies, White Sox, A’s, etc).

[moonslav59]

I figured he was throwing out the bottom third of teams that realistically have no chance (Rockies, White Sox, A’s, etc).

 

I guy mof his stature should know how to talk.

[notin]

I figured he was throwing out the bottom third of teams that realistically have no chance (Rockies, White Sox, A’s, etc).

 

 

I figured he just said 1 in 30 because there’s 30 teams and he thinks they all have an equal chance…

[notin]

It's not even 1 in 100.

 

These guys really overestimate how good the current team is.

 

I get the talk about fans not valuing the future, but 20 to 30 to 1 is way off base.

 

I think that portion of his comments of getting far more attention that it deserves, when the rest of the commentary is far more informative, and not in a “good news” way…

[Elktonnick]

I think that portion of his comments of getting far more attention that it deserves, when the rest of the commentary is far more informative, and not in a “good news” way…

 

It may not be good news but it does represent the consensus of what most serious fans have been thinking about Henry's point of view for the last few years. No surprises for me.

[moonslav59]

I think that portion of his comments of getting far more attention that it deserves, when the rest of the commentary is far more informative, and not in a “good news” way…

 

Nothing surprised me.

 

The only thing that raised aqn eyebrow was the 1 in 20 and 30 comment.