Craig Breslow hired as Head Of Baseball Operations

[moonslav59]

JH has seemed to spend big in short spurts.

 

2007: lots of big deals signed or extended- Drew, Papi, Beckett, Lugo, Dice-K

 

2008-2009: off (Lowell 2008)

 

2010: basically, Lackey

 

2011: Crawford & beckett extension and 2012: AGon extension

 

2013-2014: off

 

2015: HRam & Pablito, plus the Porcello extensión followed by Price the following winter (2016).

 

2017 off

 

JD in 2018, then the Sale, Bogey and Nate extensions/resignings (2019>)

 

2020 and 2021 off

 

Story in '22, Yoshida in '23 and Devers extension in '23, but kicks in in '24.

 

While I see other teams passing us in the spendings rankings, we are still spending bigly on 2 players in 2 years, if you cont from March 2021 to Aril 2024 as 2.

 

It looks like a pattern of 1-2 years of spending followed by 1-2 of not spending. That has not changed all that much, in terms of big and or long contracts.

 

No doubt, others are passing us, and we expect JH to spend more. Maybe not match the top teams, but at least step it up.

 

I don't disagree, but we are not on the highway to Pittsburgh.

[Bellhorn04]

Yeah, nobody really thinks JH has a Pittsburgh payroll in mind. We're cynical but we're not nuts.

[Old Red]

JH has seemed to spend big in short spurts.

 

2007: lots of big deals signed or extended- Drew, Papi, Beckett, Lugo, Dice-K

 

2008-2009: off (Lowell 2008)

 

2010: basically, Lackey

 

2011: Crawford & beckett extension and 2012: AGon extension

 

2013-2014: off

 

2015: HRam & Pablito, plus the Porcello extensión followed by Price the following winter (2016).

 

2017 off

 

JD in 2018, then the Sale, Bogey and Nate extensions/resignings (2019>)

 

2020 and 2021 off

 

Story in '22, Yoshida in '23 and Devers extension in '23, but kicks in in '24.

 

While I see other teams passing us in the spendings rankings, we are still spending bigly on 2 players in 2 years, if you cont from March 2021 to Aril 2024 as 2.

 

It looks like a pattern of 1-2 years of spending followed by 1-2 of not spending. That has not changed all that much, in terms of big and or long contracts.

 

No doubt, others are passing us, and we expect JH to spend more. Maybe not match the top teams, but at least step it up.

 

I don't disagree, but we are not on the highway to Pittsburgh.

 

I don’t know why you keep bringing up JH spending habits from the past that has nothing to do with today, nor do any patterns. Times has changed big time the last 2-3 years, and salaries keep going up as well. Did anyone think Bogey would get $280M two years ago? Look at the estimates before FA started this year when the Yam Man got $100M more. It’s not like back in the day when the Yankees, and Red Sox were fighting over Tex. Now there is more owners involved, and bigger players then where JH wants to go, so what happened in the past with JH spending patterns really has no relevance today.

[mvp 78]

Do the math, how much is our CBT number of $236M in 2022 compared to $192 in 2017? $178 in 2013?

 

Luxury Tax Limits:

 

2022: 230 (Sox were 4.5M over)

2017: 195 (Sox were 3M under)

2013: 178 (Sox were right at the CBT)

 

Where's your smoking gun? All I see is the inflation of the luxury tax/CBT and player's contracts within that number.

[mvp 78]

Considering the increase in the CBT/luxury tax, Story and Lackey took up about the same available % of AAV, except Story got an extra year.

[mvp 78]

Yeah, nobody really thinks JH has a Pittsburgh payroll in mind. We're cynical but we're not nuts.

 

It's somewhere 8-18th. I don't see him getting back to the tippy top again.

[moonslav59]

Luxury Tax Limits:

 

2022: 230 (Sox were 4.5M over)

2017: 195 (Sox were 3M under)

2013: 178 (Sox were right at the CBT)

 

Where's your smoking gun? All I see is the inflation of the luxury tax/CBT and player's contracts within that number.

 

You brought up inflation, not me.

 

I agree that some past big contracts are likely higher than Story's, when adjusted for inflation. I'm not sure more than 1 or 2, if any, beat Devers.

 

I'm sure several have topped Yoshi.

 

As for our spending budgets, how does inflation adjustments make 2022 and 2023's budgets look, in comparison?

 

I'm not doing the math.

 

I've said I think we should spend more and can spend more.

 

We dropped down, a lot after 2019, despite the Sale, nate and Bogey deals inked that winter. (Not bringing Kimbrell & Kelly back was really the start, to me, and that was after 2018, and then we dumped Price on the betts trade. No doubt, we slashed budget, like never before.

 

My point is, we are not even close to looking like PITT of even 10-14 other teams.

 

Our spending has not been all that much different from times in the past, except for the big dip in 2020, where we still were 3rd ranked.

 

Hell, Steve the Ump had us still 3rd in 2021.

 

The main reason we have dropped in the rankings, is that other teams have begun to spend more or way more, while we have stayed about the same, with repeated fluctuations and trends.

 

Seperate yourself from the emotions of watching us not go up in spending, when we need to and "can afford to" do so. Pretend you are a non Sox fan looking at these numbers to determine what the main reason is for the Sox drop in spending ranking...

 

I'll just start at 2021: (2022>2023)

1. LAD 235 (1. 277> 5. 218) -17M (2>5

2. NYY 191 (3. 240> 2. 269) +78M (2=2)

3. BOS 180 (6. 195> 13. 176) -4M (3>13)

4. LAA 177 (9. 169> 7. 204) +27M (4>7)

5. PHI 174 (4. 222> 4. 232) 58M (5>4)

6. SDP 172 (5. 209> 3. 269) +97M (6>3)

7. HOU 171 (11. 164> 11. 181) +10M (7>10)

8. NYM 167 (2. 253> 1. 334) +167M (8>1)

9. WSH 161 (19. 115> 24. 80) -81M (9>24)

10. CHC 150 (15. 131> 12. 180) +30M (10>12)

11. TOR 137 (10. 168> 6. 206) +49M (11>6)

12. STL 135 (12. 150> 16. 148) +13M (12>16)

13. ATL 134 (8. 174> 8. 200) +66M (13>8)

14. SFG 128 (13. 142>14. 176) +38M (14=14)

15. CWS 126 (7. 182> 10. 181) +55M (15>10)

16. MIN 121 (20. 111>17. 141) +20M (16>17)

17. CIN 119 (21. 100> 22. 86) -33M (17>22)

Big drop

22. TEX 85 (14. 135> 9. 184) +99M (22>9)

 

We added $15M from 2021 to 2022 and still dropped from 3rd to 6th.

The cut from '212 to '22 was certainly a factor in our drop, but if we stayed at the 2021 level of spending in 2023, we'd have placed 9th (just behind ATL and above TEX). 6 place drop.

had we stayed at the 2021 number, we'd have been ranked 10th. (7 place drop)

 

We dropped 10 spots, in reality. Once could say 6-7 were because others spent way more and 3-4, because we leveled off or dropped, a little.

 

I live near HOU. While people complain about the Astros not spending to keep their stars (sound familiar?), I don't here any calls for the owner's head. Why?

 

Because they still win, despite spending about the same as us.

 

The major issues are how we spend our money and other teams going nutty with spending and jumping over us.

 

That's not to say, our lack of spending is not a major issue.

 

 

[moonslav59]

Considering the increase in the CBT/luxury tax, Story and Lackey took up about the same available % of AAV, except Story got an extra year.

 

Would you be okay, if I had worded it like this?

 

I'm not happy with the direction of our budget, but let's not pretend JH has been anywhere near like some other owners.

 

In the last 2 years, alone...

 

Adjusted for inflation...

1. signed Devers to one of the largest 2-3 contract in Red Sox history!

2. signed Story to one of the 6th or 7th largest AAV in Red Sox history and to 6 years, a length not often given by him. (only 5 players at 6+ Devers, Price, AGon, CC, Story)

3. signed Yoshida and paid a fee that put the total cost over $100M, which I believe, when adjusted for inflation is top 25 in Red Sox history of money spent on one contract period.

 

That's not "headed towards Pittsburgh."

[mvp 78]

Would you be okay, if I had worded it like this?

 

I'm not happy with the direction of our budget, but let's not pretend JH has been anywhere near like some other owners.

 

In the last 2 years, alone...

 

Adjusted for inflation...

1. signed Devers to one of the largest 2-3 contract in Red Sox history!

2. signed Story to one of the 6th or 7th largest AAV in Red Sox history and to 6 years, a length not often given by him. (only 5 players at 6+ Devers, Price, AGon, CC, Story)

3. signed Yoshida and paid a fee that put the total cost over $100M, which I believe, when adjusted for inflation is top 25 in Red Sox history of money spent on one contract period.

 

That's not "headed towards Pittsburgh."

 

No.

[Old Red]

No.

 

👍👍👍.

[mvp 78]

You brought up inflation, not me.

 

I agree that some past big contracts are likely higher than Story's, when adjusted for inflation. I'm not sure more than 1 or 2, if any, beat Devers.

 

I'm sure several have topped Yoshi.

 

As for our spending budgets, how does inflation adjustments make 2022 and 2023's budgets look, in comparison?

 

I'm not doing the math.

 

I've said I think we should spend more and can spend more.

 

We dropped down, a lot after 2019, despite the Sale, nate and Bogey deals inked that winter. (Not bringing Kimbrell & Kelly back was really the start, to me, and that was after 2018, and then we dumped Price on the betts trade. No doubt, we slashed budget, like never before.

 

My point is, we are not even close to looking like PITT of even 10-14 other teams.

 

Our spending has not been all that much different from times in the past, except for the big dip in 2020, where we still were 3rd ranked.

 

Hell, Steve the Ump had us still 3rd in 2021.

 

The main reason we have dropped in the rankings, is that other teams have begun to spend more or way more, while we have stayed about the same, with repeated fluctuations and trends.

 

Seperate yourself from the emotions of watching us not go up in spending, when we need to and "can afford to" do so. Pretend you are a non Sox fan looking at these numbers to determine what the main reason is for the Sox drop in spending ranking...

 

I'll just start at 2021: (2022>2023)

1. LAD 235 (1. 277> 5. 218) -17M (2>5

2. NYY 191 (3. 240> 2. 269) +78M (2=2)

3. BOS 180 (6. 195> 13. 176) -4M (3>13)

4. LAA 177 (9. 169> 7. 204) +27M (4>7)

5. PHI 174 (4. 222> 4. 232) 58M (5>4)

6. SDP 172 (5. 209> 3. 269) +97M (6>3)

7. HOU 171 (11. 164> 11. 181) +10M (7>10)

8. NYM 167 (2. 253> 1. 334) +167M (8>1)

9. WSH 161 (19. 115> 24. 80) -81M (9>24)

10. CHC 150 (15. 131> 12. 180) +30M (10>12)

11. TOR 137 (10. 168> 6. 206) +49M (11>6)

12. STL 135 (12. 150> 16. 148) +13M (12>16)

13. ATL 134 (8. 174> 8. 200) +66M (13>8)

14. SFG 128 (13. 142>14. 176) +38M (14=14)

15. CWS 126 (7. 182> 10. 181) +55M (15>10)

16. MIN 121 (20. 111>17. 141) +20M (16>17)

17. CIN 119 (21. 100> 22. 86) -33M (17>22)

Big drop

22. TEX 85 (14. 135> 9. 184) +99M (22>9)

 

We added $15M from 2021 to 2022 and still dropped from 3rd to 6th.

The cut from '212 to '22 was certainly a factor in our drop, but if we stayed at the 2021 level of spending in 2023, we'd have placed 9th (just behind ATL and above TEX). 6 place drop.

had we stayed at the 2021 number, we'd have been ranked 10th. (7 place drop)

 

We dropped 10 spots, in reality. Once could say 6-7 were because others spent way more and 3-4, because we leveled off or dropped, a little.

 

I live near HOU. While people complain about the Astros not spending to keep their stars (sound familiar?), I don't here any calls for the owner's head. Why?

 

Because they still win, despite spending about the same as us.

 

The major issues are how we spend our money and other teams going nutty with spending and jumping over us.

 

That's not to say, our lack of spending is not a major issue.

 

 

 

I have to level with you, moon. Sometimes you write so much, that it's hard to figure out what your specific intent is. So please forgive other posters if they misread or take one sentence out of context.

[Old Red]

Would you be okay, if I had worded it like this?

 

I'm not happy with the direction of our budget, but let's not pretend JH has been anywhere near like some other owners.

 

In the last 2 years, alone...

 

Adjusted for inflation...

1. signed Devers to one of the largest 2-3 contract in Red Sox history!

2. signed Story to one of the 6th or 7th largest AAV in Red Sox history and to 6 years, a length not often given by him. (only 5 players at 6+ Devers, Price, AGon, CC, Story)

3. signed Yoshida and paid a fee that put the total cost over $100M, which I believe, when adjusted for inflation is top 25 in Red Sox history of money spent on one contract period.

 

That's not "headed towards Pittsburgh."

Thank god the Red Sox are not heading towards Pittsburgh. They did win 2 more games than Pittsburgh did last year. Money well spent.

[moonslav59]

I have to level with you, moon. Sometimes you write so much, that it's hard to figure out what your specific intent is. So please forgive other posters if they misread or take one sentence out of context.

 

No, you were right. I should not have said highest and 4th highest in red Sox history without at least mentioning inflation adjustments might lessen the value of my claim.

 

I was not trying to claim we spending enough. Last winter, we left a few million on the table, but I really did not have an issue with re-setting, after the stupid 2021 budget mess-up, but we are talking about what? $5-7M? Surely, that can be the major reason we sucked. This year looks different, but we have done this before when the following year looked brighter. (2013 was freaky, as we spent less and won.)

 

I'll try to keep it short and simple.

 

We are still spending large and long on some players. (3 since March 2021)

We have let some stars go, and nobody more impactful than Betts, but that was 4 years ago.

We have levelled off our spending, more or less, while 6-7 teams have spent way more than us, and passed us in the rankings. That is the main reason we dropped from top 3-4 to 13th, but not the whole reason.

 

So far, our choices on our biggest contracts have not paid off, like many did or partially did in the past:

 

Devers for obvious reasons. his extension starts in 2024. (Not improving in 2023 as a normal age curve might project is a bit concerning.)

Story has been hurt over half of the first 2 years of his 6 year deal.

Yoshida was ok in year 1 of 5, but you normally expect worse after year one. (We both agree he might do better year 2.)

 

I'm really on board with the idea that we should spend more, but I'm not going to pretend we are heading towards being like PIT.

[Randy Red Sox]

I have to level with you, moon. Sometimes you write so much, that it's hard to figure out what your specific intent is. So please forgive other posters if they misread or take one sentence out of context.

 

 

When he posts that long I just don’t read it

[Old Red]

When he posts that long I just don’t read it

 

Quantity over quality at its best.

[moonslav59]

When he posts that long I just don’t read it

 

Here is a shorter version on why we slipped from #1-4 in the rankings to 13th in 2 years:

 

We spent about $6M more per year in '22 and '23 than '21.

 

9 of the 10 teams that passed us spent this much more:

Avg increase in $M spent from 2021. Per year!

$126M NYM

$75M TEX

$67M SDP

$53M PHI

$52M ATL

$40M TOR

$30M CWS

$10M LAA

$6M CHC (just ahead of us, last year)

$2M HOU (finished 3 ahead of us)

 

I see about 6 or 7 teams that we should not have had to match or spend more than they did over the last 2 years. The rest were all bunched up, and had we spent a few more $M to get to #8, I doubt we'd have been much better than we were.

 

[mvp 78]

I'll try to keep it short and simple.

 

We are still spending large and long on some players. (3 since March 2021)

We have let some stars go, and nobody more impactful than Betts, but that was 4 years ago.

We have levelled off our spending, more or less, while 6-7 teams have spent way more than us, and passed us in the rankings. That is the main reason we dropped from top 3-4 to 13th, but not the whole reason.

 

So far, our choices on our biggest contracts have not paid off, like many did or partially did in the past:

 

Devers for obvious reasons. his extension starts in 2024. (Not improving in 2023 as a normal age curve might project is a bit concerning.)

Story has been hurt over half of the first 2 years of his 6 year deal.

Yoshida was ok in year 1 of 5, but you normally expect worse after year one. (We both agree he might do better year 2.)

 

I'm really on board with the idea that we should spend more, but I'm not going to pretend we are heading towards being like PIT.

 

We have Devers for the next few years anyway. I have read reports about the Sox shopping Story and Masa to reduce payroll. Would that allow them to use the savings on other players? Maybe. Maybe not. Even though the Masa and Story contracts are a lot of money, neither of them feel like big money contracts, right? Neither of them felt like a splurge in the days of 200-300M deals for legit stars.

[Old Red]

Here is a shorter version on why we slipped from #1-4 in the rankings to 13th in 2 years:

 

We spent about $6M more per year in '22 and '23 than '21.

 

9 of the 10 teams that passed us spent this much more:

Avg increase in $M spent from 2021. Per year!

$126M NYM

$75M TEX

$67M SDP

$53M PHI

$52M ATL

$40M TOR

$30M CWS

$10M LAA

$6M CHC (just ahead of us, last year)

$2M HOU (finished 3 ahead of us)

 

I see about 6 or 7 teams that we should not have had to match or spend more than they did over the last 2 years. The rest were all bunched up, and had we spent a few more $M to get to #8, I doubt we'd have been much better than we were.

 

It’s not just how much you spend, but how you spend it. Sale ext. story, and Yoshida don’t look like good signings either.

[Bellhorn04]

We have Devers for the next few years anyway. I have read reports about the Sox shopping Story and Masa to reduce payroll.

 

And frankly those rumors fall in line with the idea that Henry is setting things up to sell the team.

[Old Red]

And frankly those rumors fall in line with the idea that Henry is setting things up to sell the team.

 

As much as it’s gonna cost to buy the team I don’t think reducing the payroll would be that big a deal, or sticking point.

[Bellhorn04]

As much as it’s gonna cost to buy the team I don’t think reducing the payroll would be that big a deal, or sticking point.

 

Maybe so. But why in the hell would they be thinking about reducing the payroll any lower than it already is?

 

Story and Yoshida may have been bad signings, but they also have some baseball upside that we desperately need.

 

It's a weird time to be a Red Sox fan.

[mvp 78]

Here is a shorter version on why we slipped from #1-4 in the rankings to 13th in 2 years:

 

We spent about $6M more per year in '22 and '23 than '21.

 

9 of the 10 teams that passed us spent this much more:

Avg increase in $M spent from 2021. Per year!

$126M NYM

$75M TEX

$67M SDP

$53M PHI

$52M ATL

$40M TOR

$30M CWS

$10M LAA

$6M CHC (just ahead of us, last year)

$2M HOU (finished 3 ahead of us)

 

I see about 6 or 7 teams that we should not have had to match or spend more than they did over the last 2 years. The rest were all bunched up, and had we spent a few more $M to get to #8, I doubt we'd have been much better than we were.

 

 

The 2023 Sox was the second lowest they've been under the luxury tax threshold since Cots started tracking the year end CBT in 2012. The lowest was the garbage 2020 roster, but only 2M less than '23.

[Old Red]

Maybe so. But why in the hell would they be thinking about reducing the payroll any lower than it already is?

 

Story and Yoshida may have been bad signings, but they also have some baseball upside that we desperately need.

 

It's a weird time to be a Red Sox fan.

If they go, and reduce the payroll, and don’t replace it with other expenditures I have no answer.

[mvp 78]

As much as it’s gonna cost to buy the team I don’t think reducing the payroll would be that big a deal, or sticking point.

 

Agreed. Dumping one salary isn't going to affect the value of the Sox measurably. Destroying attendance though?

[mvp 78]

Maybe so. But why in the hell would they be thinking about reducing the payroll any lower than it already is?

 

Story and Yoshida may have been bad signings, but they also have some baseball upside that we desperately need.

 

It's a weird time to be a Red Sox fan.

 

Winning a WS on a shoestring budget is Henry's Rosebud.

[dgalehouse]

Excerpt from Wall Street Management 101: A handbook for hedge fund managers and other unscrupulous types. " Wring every last drop from an asset, then unload it. " (John Henry has a copy on his yacht.)

[Old Red]

Agreed. Dumping one salary isn't going to affect the value of the Sox measurably. Destroying attendance though?

 

That may be the one thing that would get JH attention the most. He can hide from the boos.

[notin]

Agreed. Dumping one salary isn't going to affect the value of the Sox measurably.

 

Unless that one salary is John Henry…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Maybe so. But why in the hell would they be thinking about reducing the payroll any lower than it already is?

 

Story and Yoshida may have been bad signings, but they also have some baseball upside that we desperately need.

 

It's a weird time to be a Red Sox fan.

 

If you're rich and shopping for a baseball franchise, a decent roster of MLB players with good potential in the minors have to be more attractive than mediocrity in the majors and a pathetic paucity of pitching throughout the entire system.

 

The worst post of the day for me was Moon's list of our top 20 pitching prospects. Back-end starters and bullpen set-up men is no way to go through life, son.

[mvp 78]

Excerpt from Wall Street Management 101: A handbook for hedge fund managers and other unscrupulous types. " Wring every last drop from an asset, then unload it. " (John Henry has a copy on his yacht.)

 

Anyone good with money doesn't own a boat.