A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

You're correct. He did have 2.8 bWAR with the White Sox, but negative bWARs with both Cleveland and Anaheim...

 

Right, and a combined 2.1 bWAR for 2022-2023. Average of 1.05.

 

Not great for a guy throwing that many innings.

[mvp 78]

Needed? You mean need.

 

They gave up. It's over.

[notin]

It was notin who dragged Nate's 20 bad innings into this.

 

As an example of a pitcher whose weak finish did not indicate an injury was forthcoming. Because that's not always what a weak finish means...

[Bellhorn04]

3.66 xFIP

 

I try to be on board with some advanced numbers, but my stopping point is FIP without the x.

[notin]

I try to be on board with some advanced numbers, but my stopping point is FIP without the x.

 

His FIP without the x in 2022 was 4.06. Better than the 2022 FIPs of both Wacha and Eovadi...

[mvp 78]

And a 19.25 million AAV is a lot to allocate to a 3/4 starter.

 

The 6th highest AAV given out to a pitcher this offseason.

 

I would have rather paid ERod.

 

Montas got 1/16 and nobody has an idea on what he's going to be like after his last injury.

 

Lugo doesn't have a long track record of starting and he got 15 AAV.

 

Flaherty got 1/14 and was considered far behind Giolito.

 

I'm not sure the Sox really overpaid. It's just what the market rate is for FA pitchers. It's a lot!

[mvp 78]

Not for a decent 3 in today's market.

 

19M is about 2.4 fWAR? Seems not entirely unreachable for a healthy Giolito.

[Bellhorn04]

His FIP without the x in 2022 was 4.06. Better than the 2022 FIPs of both Wacha and Eovadi...

 

So much for bWAR, huh?

 

It's the 24 HR in 72 IP I couldn't get past. Those are "career over" numbers.

[notin]

They gave up. It's over.

 

And that is where the moronicness? Moronosity? Moron-ness? Oooh - stupidity!

 

I mean, if they signed Montgomery and Stanek, I think they could be competitive at the very least. German and Stanek? I'm less confident but at least appreciate that some effort was made.

 

But something does need to be done quickly. Opening day is not that far away...

[mvp 78]

The hard labeling of a 3/4 starter is subjective and therefore pointless.

 

Since I brought it up, it's NOT pointless.

[mvp 78]

It was notin who dragged Nate's 20 bad innings into this.

 

He wasn't great in 2019. Missed time in 2022 and was just ok.

 

I think we all just really remember 2021.

[mvp 78]

I try to be on board with some advanced numbers, but my stopping point is FIP without the x.

 

That's because you're a boomer.

[notin]

So much for bWAR, huh?

 

It's the 24 HR in 72 IP I couldn't get past. Those are "career over" numbers.

 

Lance Lynn was right behind him with 20HRs. Is his career over too? (St. Louis felt differently.)

 

And why is Houston wasting time with Hunter Brown, who gave up 17 HRs in that same stretch?

[notin]

The 6th highest AAV given out to a pitcher this offseason.

 

I would have rather paid ERod.

 

Montas got 1/16 and nobody has an idea on what he's going to be like after his last injury.

 

Lugo doesn't have a long track record of starting and he got 15 AAV.

 

Flaherty got 1/14 and was considered far behind Giolito.

 

I'm not sure the Sox really overpaid. It's just what the market rate is for FA pitchers. It's a lot!

 

Never should have been let go in the first place, and is always overlooked among the departed players.

[notin]

So much for bWAR, huh?

 

It's the 24 HR in 72 IP I couldn't get past. Those are "career over" numbers.

 

Also, you can't bring up that you like FIP and then call someone out for using it. Especially when comparing it favorably to two pitchers you have repeatedly called out the Sox for not bringing back...

[Bellhorn04]

Lance Lynn was right behind him with 20HRs. Is his career over too? (St. Louis felt differently.)

 

Lynn is a dumpster dive too, but his contract is much more palatable than Giolito's.

[mvp 78]

And that is where the moronicness? Moronosity? Moron-ness? Oooh - stupidity!

 

I mean, if they signed Montgomery and Stanek, I think they could be competitive at the very least. German and Stanek? I'm less confident but at least appreciate that some effort was made.

 

But something does need to be done quickly. Opening day is not that far away...

 

Signing only one guy was obviously not enough. It left them vulnerable to ANY injury. If it wasn't to Giolito, it was to Whitlock, Houck or anyone else. At any point, one guy going down via injury or ineffectiveness would be disastrous for the rotation.

 

By artificially capping the budget, Henry truly f***ed this team. He might think he was being smart with his money, but I don't see it that way. He'd make much more if the team was successful.

[mvp 78]

Also, you can't bring up that you like FIP and then call someone out for using it. Especially when comparing it favorably to two pitchers you have repeatedly called out the Sox for not bringing back...

 

No, it's allowed here. We do it all the time.

[moonslav59]

Many who disliked Gio, like myself, liked Sonny Gray. Oops!

[Bellhorn04]

Many who disliked Gio, like myself, liked Sonny Gray. Oops!

 

Gray's issue is a bit less severe.

[mvp 78]

Gray is a good pitcher. He's older. With his contract, you need about 3 fWAR, but he has better upside than Giolito. He only averaged 128 innings in 21-22. He's not quite the picture of health. Giolito was at least thought to be more of a sure thing for INNINGS. Well, they bet wrong. Time will tell if the Gray contract is bad or not.

[mvp 78]

My guess is that posters here would be upset if the Sox only signed Gray and now Gray was out (see: complaints about Grissom).

[Randy Red Sox]

My guess is that posters here would be upset if the Sox only signed Gray and now Gray was out (see: complaints about Grissom).

 

yeah because Red Sox fans really have nothing to be upset about with this team

[mvp 78]

yeah because Red Sox fans really have nothing to be upset about with this team

 

Of course you would miss my point.

[Randy Red Sox]

Of course you would miss my point.

 

actually you missed mine my friend

[Bellhorn04]

I get both your points!

[notin]

Signing only one guy was obviously not enough. It left them vulnerable to ANY injury. If it wasn't to Giolito, it was to Whitlock, Houck or anyone else. At any point, one guy going down via injury or ineffectiveness would be disastrous for the rotation.

 

By artificially capping the budget, Henry truly f***ed this team. He might think he was being smart with his money, but I don't see it that way. He'd make much more if the team was successful.

 

I agree. Unless his plan is to get the payroll so low he makes his money with revenue sharing, it doesn't make sense.

 

In Chicago, for years the Blackhawks were owned by alcohol distributor Bill Wirtz, who decided to forego any TV deals for his team to force fans to attend games and purchase massively overpriced beverages, figuring that would be more lucrative. Instead it plunged the Blackhawks deep into irrelevancy.

 

It was always a stupid plan. TV deals themselves can generate more money that beer sales. And by allowing the team to be broadcast, it stimulates greater interest. But by not being on TV, attendance plummeted to record lows and there was no one there to purchase all that booze.

 

After Bill Wirtz died, his son took over and got the team back on TV. A couple extremely solid drafts later and the Hawks were the talk of Chicago winter sports and even went on to win the Stanley Cup 3 times. And more important to the Wirtz family, the team became a viable source of wealth again. Fans bought tickets. And once they bought tickets, they did purchase that booze.

 

Fans want winning teams. Nothing excites especially the casual fan more...

Edited March 8, 2024 by notin

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

 

Until we start getting serious, we will keep getting what we pay for- or less.

 

All we are saying, is give Cease a chance.

 

Actually, upcoming games that might have Red Sox fans most gruntled are the Spring Breakout games March 14-17... when Boston's top-prospect team competes vs all the other MLB prospects. We get to see the Big Three, plus, how's this OF: Rafaela, Bleis, Castro, Campell... and maybe most intriguing IF: Cespedes, Zanetello and Anderson... (notice I didn't mention any pitchers)

[Duran Is The Man]

The Giolito signing almost made me puke the minute they announced it. Just what a putrid starting rotation needs -- someone, who if he's good, will leave after one year... but if he sucks, we're stuck with him. All that arrangement ever indicated is that the front office was just trying to fill uniforms to get through this season, and then start all over again next year.

 

It's insulting to fans -- and if you don't think so, I'll rephrase immediately: it's insulting to this fan.

 

totally agree.. and insulting to this fan as well.

[Duran Is The Man]

I agree. Unless his plan is to get the payroll so low he makes his money with revenue sharing, it doesn't make sense.

 

In Chicago, for years the Blackhawks were owned by alcohol distributor Bill Wirtz, who decided to forego any TV deals for his team to force fans to attend games and purchase massively overpriced beverages, figuring that would be more lucrative. Instead it plunged the Blackhawks deep into irrelevancy.

 

It was always a stupid plan. TV deals themselves can generate more money that beer sales. And by allowing the team to be broadcast, it stimulates greater interest. But by not being on TV, attendance plummeted to record lows and there was no one there to purchase all that booze.

 

After Bill Wirtz died, his son took over and got the team back on TV. A couple extremely solid drafts later and the Hawks were the talk of Chicago winter sports and even went on to win the Stanley Cup 3 times. And more important to the Wirtz family, the team became a viable source of wealth again. Fans bought tickets. And once they bought tickets, they did purchase that booze.

 

Fans want winning teams. Nothing excites especially the casual fan more...

 

and as a Red Sox fan, i don't think i've ever been less excited about an upcoming season thanks to John Henry and his ******** team.