A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[notin]

Hopefully there are exceptions.

 

Why? He’s a Ranger now.

[Bellhorn04]

Why? He’s a Ranger now.

 

Yeah, but we're not all Icemen like you.

[notin]

Yeah, but we're not all Icemen like you.

 

 

Hey I never want Eovaldi to get hurt. I’m just not surprised when it happens. And as he is no longer in Boston, it didn’t bother me nearly as much…

[mvp 78]

Just as an FYI, Tommy John threw 2,543 innings after his surgery. They don't make 'em like they used to.

[moonslav59]

Just as an FYI, Tommy John threw 2,543 innings after his surgery. They don't make 'em like they used to.

 

..and they say they improved the procedure.

[Bellhorn04]

Just as an FYI, Tommy John threw 2,543 innings after his surgery. They don't make 'em like they used to.

 

The advantages of being a soft tosser.

[mvp 78]

Hate speech is alive and well on TalkSox.

[moonslav59]

Hate speech is alive and well on TalkSox.

 

Agreed. Your “won’t say the “C” word is very offensive.

 

I mean, where do you come up with this hateful thoughts?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Today from MLB.com: "If Giolito can recapture his past form and Nick Pivetta, Brayan Bello and Kutter Crawford build on the positive signs they showed last year, the Red Sox might have a chance to sneak into the postseason."

 

That would be cool, but why do the Red Sox have to sneak?

[Bellhorn04]

Today from MLB.com: "If Giolito can recapture his past form and Nick Pivetta, Brayan Bello and Kutter Crawford build on the positive signs they showed last year, the Red Sox might have a chance to sneak into the postseason."

 

That would be cool, but why do the Red Sox have to sneak?

 

"might have a chance to sneak in" - several layers of qualifiers.

[notin]

"might have a chance to sneak in" - several layers of qualifiers.

 

Whoa!! We almost had some unsquashed optimism!! Better make sure to take care of that before it takes root...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Whoa!! We almost had some unsquashed optimism!! Better make sure to take care of that before it takes root...

 

You're not sneaking that sarcasm past this thread's namesakes.

[notin]

You're not sneaking that sarcasm past this thread's namesakes.

 

So are you saying “optimistic” is the opposite of “realistic”?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

So are you saying “optimistic” is the opposite of “realistic”?

 

Reporters asked my bad friend Sam the same thing at Jet Blue yesterday and he explained all Red Sox Nation needs to know about 2024: "It is what it is."

[moonslav59]

Today from MLB.com: "If Giolito can recapture his past form and Nick Pivetta, Brayan Bello and Kutter Crawford build on the positive signs they showed last year, the Red Sox might have a chance to sneak into the postseason."

 

That would be cool, but why do the Red Sox have to sneak?

 

Because we are mediocre.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Because we are mediocre.

 

In the optometrist thread, patients look forward to seeing a good team again, because that's when they know ownership will spend on good pitchers again.

[moonslav59]

In the optometrist thread, patients look forward to seeing a good team again, because that's when they know ownership will spend on good pitchers again.

 

I'm still hoping for Monty, even if it means trading Jansen's salary.

[moonslav59]

Liam Hendriks will earn $2MM in 2024 and $6MM in 2025.

There’s also a $2MM buyout on the 2026 option, which is valued at $12MM.

The $10MM worth of incentives in the deal are all tied to Hendriks’ 2025 performance.

There are no incentives tied to the 2024 season.

[moonslav59]

Here is one way to view the changes from 2023 to 2024:

 

Sale & Paxton for Giolito & more starts from Pivetta.

 

Kluber for more starts from Houck & Crawford.

 

Duvall for O'Neill.

 

Kike & Chang for more time from Story

 

Arroyo, Urias & Kike for Grissom.

 

Turner for Yoshida (to DH), but really for more playing time from Duran, Abreu & Rafaela.

 

Dugo for more playing time from Duran, Abreu, Rafaela and maybe Refsnyder (or more PAs from O'Neill over the 353 Duvall gave us- see Duvall.)

 

Schreiber for Hendricks

 

Bleier, Llovera, Ort, Brasier & others for Campbell, Slaten, Mata, Weissert and others.

 

Edited February 20, 2024 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

ZIPS fWAR Projections and player rankings:

 

33. Devers 3.0

91. Grissom 2.6

103. Story 2.4

117. O'Neill 2.3

131. Yoshida 2.1

134. Rafaela 2.1

168. Casas 1.9 (.846 OPS but -12.7 on D)

192 Teel 1.8 (456 PAs)

202. Abreu 1.7

208. DHam 1.7 (496 PAs)

231. Duran 1.6

249. EValdez 1.5

 

Pitching:

40. Giolito 2.5

55. Bello 2.3

94. Whitlock 1.9

113. Crawford 1.6

120. Fitts 1.6

161. Pivetta 1.3

177. Walter 1.2

193. Wink 1.2

203. Houck 1.2

 

Note:

19. Snell 3.1

25. Monty 2.9

117. Clevinger 1.6

124 German 1.5

155. Lorenzen 1.3

251. Lauer 1.1

 

[moonslav59]

ZIPS fWAR Projections and player rankings:

 

33. Devers 3.0

91. Grissom 2.6

103. Story 2.4

117. O'Neill 2.3

131. Yoshida 2.1

134. Rafaela 2.1

168. Casas 1.9 (.846 OPS but -12.7 on D)

192 Teel 1.8 (456 PAs)

202. Abreu 1.7

208. DHam 1.7 (496 PAs)

231. Duran 1.6

249. EValdez 1.5

 

Pitching:

40. Giolito 2.5

55. Bello 2.3

94. Whitlock 1.9

113. Crawford 1.6

120. Fitts 1.6

161. Pivetta 1.3

177. Walter 1.2

193. Wink 1.2

203. Houck 1.2

 

Note:

19. Snell 3.1

25. Monty 2.9

117. Clevinger 1.6

124 German 1.5

155. Lorenzen 1.3

251. Lauer 1.1

 

 

If you go by the 0-30 is a #1, 31-60 is a #2....

 

Our rotation looks like this...

 

Pitching:

40. Giolito 2.5 #2

55. Bello 2.3 #2

94. Whitlock 1.9 #4 but likely will be in the pen.

113. Crawford 1.6 #4

120. Fitts 1.6 #5 (in AAA)

161. Pivetta 1.3 #6

177. Walter 1.2 #6

193. Wink 1.2

203. Houck 1.2 #7

 

#2 Gio

#2 Bello

#4 Crawford

#6 Pivetta

#7 Houck

[sk7326]

If you go by the 0-30 is a #1, 31-60 is a #2....

 

Our rotation looks like this...

 

Pitching:

40. Giolito 2.5 #2

55. Bello 2.3 #2

94. Whitlock 1.9 #4 but likely will be in the pen.

113. Crawford 1.6 #4

120. Fitts 1.6 #5 (in AAA)

161. Pivetta 1.3 #6

177. Walter 1.2 #6

193. Wink 1.2

203. Houck 1.2 #7

 

#2 Gio

#2 Bello

#4 Crawford

#6 Pivetta

#7 Houck

 

A good rule of thumb is to consider "replacement level" as basically a 40 win team or so ... so the ZIPS projections point to a .500ish team which seems about right

[mvp 78]

Liam Hendriks will earn $2MM in 2024 and $6MM in 2025.

There’s also a $2MM buyout on the 2026 option, which is valued at $12MM.

The $10MM worth of incentives in the deal are all tied to Hendriks’ 2025 performance.

There are no incentives tied to the 2024 season.

 

The '26 option is mutual so it 99% will not be picked up.

[Bellhorn04]

A good rule of thumb is to consider "replacement level" as basically a 40 win team or so ... so the ZIPS projections point to a .500ish team which seems about right

 

So replacement level is the 1962 Mets. Perfect!

[moonslav59]

A good rule of thumb is to consider "replacement level" as basically a 40 win team or so ... so the ZIPS projections point to a .500ish team which seems about right

 

Steamer has much different rankings and projections:

 

14. Devers 4.8

61. Casas 3.0

116. Grissom 2.1

138. Story 1.8

142. Yoshida 1.7

150. O'Neill 1.7

197. Duran 1.3

222. Abreu 1.1

 

44. Bello 2.5

48. Giolito 2.3

70. Pivetta 2.0

80. Houck 1.8

91. Crawford 1.7

158. Whitlock 0.9

 

Bello & Gio #2's

Pivetta & Houck #3's

Crawford #4

 

No #1, but no #5, either. With 4 pitchers in the 2-3 range, it actually makes it a plus, on paper. The average ranking of our 5 is a 66.7, and the league avg should be 75.

 

21. Snell 3.3

22. Monty 3.2

[moonslav59]

The '26 option is mutual so it 99% will not be picked up.

 

At $12M, it looks that way.

[Hugh2]

At $12M, it looks that way.

 

I'm not sure the money has anything to do with it. If he's not worth 12 million, The Sox aren't exercising their end, if he's worth more than that then the player isn't exercising his option.

 

I'm sure someone can dig up some mutual options that have been picked up on both sides before but they're almost never picked up by design.

[moonslav59]

I'm not sure the money has anything to do with it. If he's not worth 12 million, The Sox aren't exercising their end, if he's worth more than that then the player isn't exercising his option.

 

I'm sure someone can dig up some mutual options that have been picked up on both sides before but they're almost never picked up by design.

 

True. It would take both sides thinking he's worth about $12M for it to be accepted by both sides. Even then, Liam might want to seek a longer deal, at his age.

 

The Sox might think he's worth $12M, but may still be on the cheap. or want to spend that money elsewhere.

[Hugh2]

True. It would take both sides thinking he's worth about $12M for it to be accepted by both sides. Even then, Liam might want to seek a longer deal, at his age.

 

The Sox might think he's worth $12M, but may still be on the cheap. or want to spend that money elsewhere.

 

Even then I don't think it's accepted. If he's worth exactly $12 million for one year why not go out and get $30-$34 million for 3 years? Just as you said, I agree, I think he would seek a longer deal in that situation; this is probably why mutual options are almost never picked up by both sides. But it gets him $2 million dollars with the opt out.

[moonslav59]

Even then I don't think it's accepted. If he's worth exactly $12 million for one year why not go out and get $30-$34 million for 3 years? Just as you said, I agree, I think he would seek a longer deal in that situation; this is probably why mutual options are almost never picked up by both sides. But it gets him $2 million dollars with the opt out.

 

He will be 37, by then, so 3 years might be unlikely, but yes, I doubt he's here year 3.