A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[Old Red]

I'd give him the length, but not the total $$$'s. 10/125? It's less than Matt Olson's deal, but you're buying out pre-ARB and ARB years and he's a worse defender at the moment.

 

Sign him up for that!

[mvp 78]

Sign him up for that!

 

He might want more $$$, but IDK.

[moonslav59]

Junis was a possible Plan C signing. He signed with MIL for $7M/1.

 

He's been used mostly in relief, but did start 21 games since 2022.

 

'22-'23

198 IP

3.69 FIP

4.18 ERA

1.29 WHIP

Only a 2.0 fWAR

 

His 3.67 xFIP since 2022 is better than Monty, Nate, Cease and others.

[notin]

Junis was a possible Plan C signing. He signed with MIL for $7M/1.

 

He's been used mostly in relief, but did start 21 games since 2022.

 

'22-'23

198 IP

3.69 FIP

4.18 ERA

1.29 WHIP

Only a 2.0 fWAR

 

His 3.67 xFIP since 2022 is better than Monty, Nate, Cease and others.

 

Junis never struck me as much of a starter option. I had him behind Lorenzen...

[Hugh2]

He might want more $$$, but IDK.

 

If you factor in two years inflation, giving him the Olson contract is about $140-$145 million ten years. I’d offer him 150/10 with maybe team options at the end.

[notin]

Junis was a possible Plan C signing. He signed with MIL for $7M/1.

 

He's been used mostly in relief, but did start 21 games since 2022.

 

'22-'23

198 IP

3.69 FIP

4.18 ERA

1.29 WHIP

Only a 2.0 fWAR

 

His 3.67 xFIP since 2022 is better than Monty, Nate, Cease and others.

 

Also it's not so fair to compare an xFIP from Junis and his with 239 IP to Montgomery and his 524 IP in that same span.

[moonslav59]

Junis never struck me as much of a starter option. I had him behind Lorenzen...

 

Yes, but he could take Houck's slot in the pen.

[moonslav59]

Also it's not so fair to compare an xFIP from Junis and his with 239 IP to Montgomery and his 524 IP in that same span.

 

I understand more than double the IP has way more value, and the 2.0 fWAR reflects that.

 

He did pitch pretty well, though, and I do think xFIP comps can show how well he pitched, despite fewer innings.

 

Also, I'm not a huge xFIP guy, and this is one example why.

[mvp 78]

Yes, but he could take Houck's slot in the pen.

 

Sox don't really need to add relief arms. If they were going to add a 7M relief arm, it should be a higher leverage guy. Martin only makes 8.8M.

[mvp 78]

I understand more than double the IP has way more value, and the 2.0 fWAR reflects that.

 

He did pitch pretty well, though, and I do think xFIP comps can show how well he pitched, despite fewer innings.

 

Also, I'm not a huge xFIP guy, and this is one example why.

 

The problem comes when you compare a guy who pitches 50% in relief with a guy who pitches entirely in the rotation. There isn't a one to one correlation with their stats.

[notin]

Sox don't really need to add relief arms. If they were going to add a 7M relief arm, it should be a higher leverage guy. Martin only makes 8.8M.

 

And there really are not any relievers left on the market I would consider high leverage arms. I think the headliners left are Stanek and Heuer. If the Sox are not going to get a starter and push Houck to the pen, then these guys are hopefully options to backfill a rotation spot. But that's really about it...

Edited February 7, 2024 by notin

[moonslav59]

The problem comes when you compare a guy who pitches 50% in relief with a guy who pitches entirely in the rotation. There isn't a one to one correlation with their stats.

 

Yes, I get that, but this guy did start 21 games in the sample period I provided, and that xFIP was pretty good for RP'ers, too, especially a bulk innings RP'er.

 

I'm not saying I wanted him at $7M. We paid Wacha that. We paid Hill+ Strahm close to that.

[mvp 78]

And there really are not any relievers left on the market I would consider high leverage arms. I think the headliners left are Stanek and Heuer. If the Sox are not going to get a starter and push Houck to the pen, then these guys are hopefully options to backfill a rotation spot. But that's really about it...

 

Time seems to be running out, but there are still a few names left.

[moonslav59]

The Red Sox agreed to a minor league contract with infielder/outfielder Dalton Guthrie.

[mvp 78]

The Red Sox agreed to a minor league contract with infielder/outfielder Dalton Guthrie.

 

DFA'd by 3 different ballclubs last year. Benchwarmer for WOO.

[moonslav59]

DFA'd by 3 different ballclubs last year. Benchwarmer for WOO.

 

Is he better than DHam?

[mvp 78]

Is he better than DHam?

 

Offensively, no. Defensively, yes.

[mvp 78]

@ChrisCotillo

Official from Netflix. This is something that Sam Kennedy has been interested in for a long time after the success of other projects like Drive to Survive, Full Swing, etc.

 

A little like Baseball Hard Knocks but not in real time... all coming out long after the season is over.

 

Get this f***er out of here!!!!!!!!!!

[notin]

Offensively, no. Defensively, yes.

 

He has a career .393 OBP!

[mvp 78]

He has a career .393 OBP!

 

If only he could recreate the 185 wRC+ from '22! That's the top of the order bat this lineup needs. Probably means they could move on from Anthony. They have control over him for 6 years.

[notin]

If only he could recreate the 185 wRC+ from '22! That's the top of the order bat this lineup needs. Probably means they could move on from Anthony. They have control over him for 6 years.

 

Just too bad he doesn’t have a position…

[moonslav59]

Offensively, no. Defensively, yes.

 

DHam sets a pretty low O bar, too.

 

He does steal bases, but can he get on base at the ML level?

[Randy Red Sox]

The Red Sox agreed to a minor league contract with infielder/outfielder Dalton Guthrie.

 

hip hip hooray

[mvp 78]

DHam sets a pretty low O bar, too.

 

He does steal bases, but can he get on base at the ML level?

 

Well, the new guy can't. Hamilton hits well at AAA. New guy can't even do that.

[moonslav59]

Well, the new guy can't. Hamilton hits well at AAA. New guy can't even do that.

 

.791 in AAA Guthrie (.357 OBP)

 

.801 in AAA DHam (.363 OBP)

 

Small MLB sample sizes: Guthrie blows DHam away in OPS: .726 to .438.

 

Not much difference. If Guthrie can field better and play more positions, he might very well be above DHam on the depth chart.

[mvp 78]

In '23, Guthrie had a 748 OPS in AAA, his third year at that level. Not great!

 

I'd have him above Hamilton on the depth chart and wouldn't care if Hamilton was DFA'd.

[notin]

In '23, Guthrie had a 748 OPS in AAA, his third year at that level. Not great!

 

I'd have him above Hamilton on the depth chart and wouldn't care if Hamilton was DFA'd.

 

Guthrie’s AAA numbers overall were tolerable, and better than his A and AA stuff.

 

But he’s barely 40 man roster material, let alone utility infielder stuff. Unless his defense is good, but that’s unknown to me.

 

Hamilton is a light-hitting pinch runner with questionable defense himself.

 

I wouldn’t care if either were DFAd…

[Bellhorn04]

Guthrie’s AAA numbers overall were tolerable, and better than his A and AA stuff.

 

But he’s barely 40 man roster material, let alone utility infielder stuff. Unless his defense is good, but that’s unknown to me.

 

Hamilton is a light-hitting pinch runner with questionable defense himself.

 

I wouldn’t care if either were DFAd…

 

I'd care just as much if you guys were talking about Woody Guthrie and George Hamilton...

[mvp 78]

Guthrie’s AAA numbers overall were tolerable, and better than his A and AA stuff.

 

But he’s barely 40 man roster material, let alone utility infielder stuff. Unless his defense is good, but that’s unknown to me.

 

Hamilton is a light-hitting pinch runner with questionable defense himself.

 

I wouldn’t care if either were DFAd…

 

Guthrie was DFA'd 3 times last year. Good chance he's DFA'd this year! He's definitely towards the bottom of the 40 man. Yu Chang of the OF?

[mvp 78]

I'd care just as much if you guys were talking about Woody Guthrie and George Hamilton...

 

I'd care more!