A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[mvp 78]

James Outman 4.4 fWAR - preARB

 

I think we'd all replace Corey Bellinger with that.

[Bellhorn04]

After this season the Astros will lose

 

Jose Altuve

Alex Bregman

Justin Verlander

Ryan Pressly

 

Two big bats up an ace and their closer. They also have zero top 100 prospects.

 

I'd much certainly rather be any one of the Dodgers or the Braves right now than the Astros. Even the Orioles, if they ever decide to spend....look out.

 

The Orioles won't decide to spend as long as the Angelos family runs the team.

[mvp 78]

The Orioles won't decide to spend as long as the Angelos family runs the team.

 

There was a rumor that someone else was going to swoop in and buy the O's, but I have no idea if the Angelos even wants to sell. The stadium lease was just extended, so they won't be getting that sweetheart Braves deal for a bit longer that Angelos wanted.

[notin]

And they replaced Corey Seager with Gavin Lux, not Miguel Rojas. Lux just got injured.

 

If you’re argument is they replace their stars with stars, does Lux qualify?

[jad]

1. Where did I ever even hint at only caring about the past?

2. Some other poster blasts me for having too much hope in the future.

3. From your post #4780, it sounds like you should be the one to change your loyalty.

 

I'm not happy about where we are, right now. None of us are. I'm never changing teams. I'll always be a Sox fan and try to watch as many games as possible.

 

You do what you want.

 

I'd rather be a Sox fan, right now, than any other MLB team. That's not saying I'm okay with losing. It's just saying I'm a Sox fan- win or lose.

 

 

Maybe that part about comparing the recent histories of various clubs?

 

And of course, I'll have the radio droning in the background like all NEnglanders this summer. But LAD is a far better organization with a far better product and anyone who denies that is delusional.

 

But there's hope: LAD had to recover from the disastrous ownership of the McCourts (among the worst owners in pro-sports,--in a very very crowded field) just as the LAClippers had to recover from Donald Sterling. So there is hope (once or if the team is sold).

Edited January 29, 2024 by jad

[moonslav59]

Since the Sox won't likely be competitive for a title until '26 or later, being a Dodger fan from 19-26 and maybe beyond is the better bet.

 

I'll stick with my Sox- win or lose.

[mvp 78]

If you’re argument is they replace their stars with stars, does Lux qualify?

 

They replaced a star with a high caliber prospect. If the Sox were replacing Xander with Mayer in '23, nobody would have cared. The problem there is Mayer started '23 in A ball, not in Boston.

Edited January 29, 2024 by mvp 78

[mvp 78]

I'll stick with my Sox- win or lose.

 

Ok? We're talking about FO approaches and how it serves the fan experience, not switching fandom.

[moonslav59]

Maybe that part about comparing the recent histories of various clubs?

 

And of course, I'll have the radio droning in the background like all NEnglanders this summer. But LAD is a far better organization with a far better product and anyone who denies that is delusional.

 

I talk about the past, present and future. Lately, it's been more about 2025 and beyond.

 

Nobody is denying the Dodgers have a better product, right now. Thinking someone is is what is delusional.

[Old Red]

I'll stick with my Sox- win or lose.

 

You bailed in 2022. That’s how much you stick win, or lose.🙈🤭.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

 

You’ve missed all the things this team has been doing right and focused solely on their spending and then glorified them for it…

 

When I typed "they have -- and use -- the resources" I didn't just mean spend money. The Dodgers also develop prospects, and make big trades -- and if you're in notin-arguing-mood, feel free to pick the ones that didn't work... but no one can deny LA never stops upgrading (yes, they dealt some good prospects for Scherzer and Trea Turner, and now both are gone, but it's doubtful Dodgers fan forums have an ongoing thread in honor of Keibert Ruiz. Why? Because they still have Will Smith).

 

I've never said it's all about winning rings -- no Red Sox diehard who kept cheering from the 60s through the 90s can -- but the Dodgers have done a lot to make it more fun for fans to root for them than Boston has for its fans the past five years.

 

What things have the Red Sox done right lately? Change CBOs and still not sign good starting pitchers? Choose the best players available in drafts and take Mayer and Teel, just because nobody else did yet? Extend Devers and renovate system-wide pitching infrastructure? At least the latter two are key decisions that could soon prove important...

[Old Red]

Ok? We're talking about FO approaches and how it serves the fan experience, not switching fandom.

 

Like I’ve repeatedly said many times over. This is not the same JH who bought the Red Sox, and what tendencies he has done in the past payroll wise has no bearing on what he’ll do today.

[moonslav59]

Ok? We're talking about FO approaches and how it serves the fan experience, not switching fandom.

 

Okay, but he did ask why I don't start following the Yankees.

 

Surely, our FO is a mess, right now. I'm not a FO fan: I'm a Sox fan.

 

I'm not keen on teams that spend a ton to win- like LAD & NYM (to lose.) I realize we were big spenders, but I never viewed us like the Yankees- pre 2003.

 

I admire the Astros, Braves and Rays philosophy more than the Mets, Dodgers and Rangers' way, but all have been better than ours, of late.

 

I'm not denying that or even hinting at that.

 

I'm also not totally immersed in just the here and now. I like our past. I like our future. I think we have a pretty nice foundation, now, but we need a couple major additions, that our FO just won't allow to happen. It sucks, but it is what it is. We've spent more than almost everyone else for about 2 decades. We even spend more in the winters of '21-'22 and '22-'23 than most teams. I'm not calling for JH's head over this winer.

[Old Red]

Okay, but he did ask why I don't start following the Yankees.

 

Surely, our FO is a mess, right now. I'm not a FO fan: I'm a Sox fan.

 

I'm not keen on teams that spend a ton to win- like LAD & NYM (to lose.) I realize we were big spenders, but I never viewed us like the Yankees- pre 2003.

 

I admire the Astros, Braves and Rays philosophy more than the Mets, Dodgers and Rangers' way, but all have been better than ours, of late.

 

I'm not denying that or even hinting at that.

 

I'm also not totally immersed in just the here and now. I like our past. I like our future. I think we have a pretty nice foundation, now, but we need a couple major additions, that our FO just won't allow to happen. It sucks, but it is what it is. We've spent more than almost everyone else for about 2 decades. We even spend more in the winters of '21-'22 and '22-'23 than most teams. I'm not calling for JH's head over this winer.

Foundation? Mookie, Raffy, and Bogey should be the foundation, and the farm, and other additions should have been added to that. We know you are not immersed in the here, and now, and haven’t been for three years. 2029 still looks good to you.

[mvp 78]

The future ('26?):

 

C - Teel

1B - Casas

2B - Grissom

SS - Mayer

3B - Devers

RF - Anthony

CF - Rafaela

LF - Duran

DH - Masa

Bench - Hickey, Wong, Meidroth, Abreu

 

SP - Bello, Crawford, Wikelman, Perales, Fitts

RP - Whitlock, Houck, Schreiber, Campbell, Guerrero, Bernardino, Murphy, Winckowski

 

This relies on all the prospects reaching their potential without setbacks. Offensively, it seems ok. The rotation still looks like s*** and there's nothing to really be excited about. The pen looks about the same with minor tweaks and changes in the late innings. Without knowing what the players develop into, can we confidently state this is a playoff team? I don't think we can unless there is a significant infusion at the top of the rotation. Wikelman and maybe Perales are better fitts for the pen IMO.

[notin]

When I typed "they have -- and use -- the resources" I didn't just mean spend money. The Dodgers also develop prospects, and make big trades -- and if you're in notin-arguing-mood, feel free to pick the ones that didn't work... but no one can deny LA never stops upgrading (yes, they dealt some good prospects for Scherzer and Trea Turner, and now both are gone, but it's doubtful Dodgers fan forums have an ongoing thread in honor of Keibert Ruiz. Why? Because they still have Will Smith).

 

I've never said it's all about winning rings -- no Red Sox diehard who kept cheering from the 60s through the 90s can -- but the Dodgers have done a lot to make it more fun for fans to root for them than Boston has for its fans the past five years.

 

What things have the Red Sox done right lately? Change CBOs and still not sign good starting pitchers? Choose the best players available in drafts and take Mayer and Teel, just because nobody else did yet? Extend Devers and renovate system-wide pitching infrastructure? At least the latter two are key decisions that could soon prove important...

 

Dude, I can’t help it that you just seem so passionate about preventing anyone from saying anything good about the Red Sox that you often resort to praising teams you clearly don’t follow. I mean, you once defended the Arizona pitching staff and the statistical similarities to Boston as a product of Arizona heat. Did you know Chase Field has a retractable roof and day games are always played indoors?

 

I didn’t agree with your statement that LA is defined by star players. (Your words. Verbatim .). I agree they have some and they spend. They pick their spots. Sometimes they wait for the next class. And sometimes they take chances.

 

The Dodgers have gone spend happy in 2023. Who did they sign in 2022? 2021? Are you comfortable with the Red Sox sitting out free agency even one time?

 

You called Justin Turner a star. Turner was a UIF on the Orioles and Mets they signed as a free agent. Muncy was released by the A’s. These guys you called stars were products of some sort of great scouting that the Dodgers gave an opportunity to. And they do this all the time. They let non-stars turn into stars. Besides these two, there is Chris Taylor, Kike, Jamey Carroll, Logan Forsythe. (Ok Logan struggled a bit and they’re only batting .833.)

 

If Boston grabbed this many utility infielders from other teams, who would get excited about that? Heck we have fans not getting excited about the established infielders we bring in. And the former top prospects. Imagine if the Sox traded Sale for Orlando Arcia instead!

[moonslav59]

The future ('26?):

 

C - Teel

1B - Casas

2B - Grissom

SS - Mayer

3B - Devers

RF - Anthony

CF - Rafaela

LF - Duran

DH - Masa

Bench - Hickey, Wong, Meidroth, Abreu

 

SP - Bello, Crawford, Wikelman, Perales, Fitts

RP - Whitlock, Houck, Schreiber, Campbell, Guerrero, Bernardino, Murphy, Winckowski

 

This relies on all the prospects reaching their potential without setbacks. Offensively, it seems ok. The rotation still looks like s*** and there's nothing to really be excited about. The pen looks about the same with minor tweaks and changes in the late innings. Without knowing what the players develop into, can we confidently state this is a playoff team? I don't think we can unless there is a significant infusion at the top of the rotation. Wikelman and maybe Perales are better fitts for the pen IMO.

 

It's not the best foundation in MLB, but it's pretty good.

 

I think it can be a winner, if we add two top SP'ers.

[mvp 78]

It's not the best foundation in MLB, but it's pretty good.

 

I think it can be a winner, if we add two top SP'ers.

 

The problem is that Henry won't add until they are at the precipice. I don't think they'll get to the precipice without the pitching already in hand.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Dude, I can’t help it that you just seem so passionate about preventing anyone from saying anything good about the Red Sox

 

How can anyone get down on the Red Sox, when every year they're at least the fifth-best club in the mighty AL East?

 

Of course, it's frustrating when they never recruit the players one suggests (except maybe Cesar Puello). And imagine complaining for years -- just like the rest of the forum, and rightly so -- about the Sox not adequately filling their starting rotation. If only the forum could better appreciate one's expertise on batting because of all the times he's squared up a baseball in Arizona and in Boston, and the comparative effects on the pitchers faced.

 

The preceding paragraph might describe you or me or both of us. We're both loyal Red Sox fans, and a little obsessive -- or we wouldn't bother spending time typing about them daily (if you're wondering how someone so disgusted with the Sox is still here, I heard reading and writing helps ward off Alzheimer's).

 

But one thing we both know: there's no way the Red Sox are the same as the Dodgers right now, and rooting for either certainly entails different fan experiences. I personally don't define my baseball seasons by which team out of 30 wins the very last game of the World Series.

[moonslav59]

The problem is that Henry won't add until they are at the precipice. I don't think they'll get to the precipice without the pitching already in hand.

 

We are not even sure he will add then, either. I hope he does.

 

If some of the kids come through, this year, and it looks like 2 from Anthony, Teel and Mayer will join the 2025 club, maybe JH chooses 2025 as "the year." It does look like 2026 might be the earliest we can expect or hope for big spending. It sucks to have to wait that long.

 

I feel we are close enough, now, to add two top SP'ers and be in the mix. Obviously, JH disagree or just wants to make more money.

 

As for not getting close enough, until we already have some good pitching, I do think a big boost from some kids could get JH thinking, the time is now.

 

Hoping Crawford, Houck, Whitlock, Bello, Wink and some others get better and bring us close enough for JH to think we are 1 or 2 big arms away from glory, might be too much to ask, but it's not impossible.

[Hugh2]

The future ('26?):

 

C - Teel

1B - Casas

2B - Grissom

SS - Mayer

3B - Devers

RF - Anthony

CF - Rafaela

LF - Duran

DH - Masa

Bench - Hickey, Wong, Meidroth, Abreu

 

SP - Bello, Crawford, Wikelman, Perales, Fitts

RP - Whitlock, Houck, Schreiber, Campbell, Guerrero, Bernardino, Murphy, Winckowski

 

This relies on all the prospects reaching their potential without setbacks. Offensively, it seems ok. The rotation still looks like s*** and there's nothing to really be excited about. The pen looks about the same with minor tweaks and changes in the late innings. Without knowing what the players develop into, can we confidently state this is a playoff team? I don't think we can unless there is a significant infusion at the top of the rotation. Wikelman and maybe Perales are better fitts for the pen IMO.

 

For the rotation to look good, you're going to need two out of the Wikelman/Perales/Fitts group to pretty much hit their ceiling. I'd be happy with one, and this is assuming Bello/Crawford can be a 2/4 type each.

 

Next years free agent pitching class looks good, and fairly deep, but with a lot of teams seemingly sitting out on the Snell/Montgomery sweepstakes I feel there will be a lot more top dogs bidding on pitching next winter. I think the FO should still strongly consider these two this offseason if the price is reasonable.

[Hugh2]

It's not the best foundation in MLB, but it's pretty good.

 

I think it can be a winner, if we add two top SP'ers.

 

I think the position side looks pretty darn good, it's the other side of the ball I find concerning.

[jad]

When I typed "they have -- and use -- the resources" I didn't just mean spend money. The Dodgers also develop prospects, and make big trades -- and if you're in notin-arguing-mood, feel free to pick the ones that didn't work... but no one can deny LA never stops upgrading (yes, they dealt some good prospects for Scherzer and Trea Turner, and now both are gone, but it's doubtful Dodgers fan forums have an ongoing thread in honor of Keibert Ruiz. Why? Because they still have Will Smith).

 

I've never said it's all about winning rings -- no Red Sox diehard who kept cheering from the 60s through the 90s can -- but the Dodgers have done a lot to make it more fun for fans to root for them than Boston has for its fans the past five years.

 

What things have the Red Sox done right lately? Change CBOs and still not sign good starting pitchers? Choose the best players available in drafts and take Mayer and Teel, just because nobody else did yet? Extend Devers and renovate system-wide pitching infrastructure? At least the latter two are key decisions that could soon prove important...

 

Yes. Yes. And yes.

[mvp 78]

For the rotation to look good, you're going to need two out of the Wikelman/Perales/Fitts group to pretty much hit their ceiling. I'd be happy with one, and this is assuming Bello/Crawford can be a 2/4 type each.

 

Next years free agent pitching class looks good, and fairly deep, but with a lot of teams seemingly sitting out on the Snell/Montgomery sweepstakes I feel there will be a lot more top dogs bidding on pitching next winter. I think the FO should still strongly consider these two this offseason if the price is reasonable.

 

Wikelman's ceiling is probably 4th starter. Perales' ceiling is probably 3rd starter. They still need two pitchers better than Bello if they want to be a WS team IMO.

[moonslav59]

I think the position side looks pretty darn good, it's the other side of the ball I find concerning.

 

Agreed, and to me the pen looks fine or better than fine, depending on where Crawford, Whitlock and Houck are slotted.

 

Even right now, we'd be in the PO mix with 2 solid SP'ers added. Maybe not ring contenders but at least close to or better than the 2021 Sox level, on paper.

[moonslav59]

Wikelman's ceiling is probably 4th starter. Perales' ceiling is probably 3rd starter. They still need two pitchers better than Bello if they want to be a WS team IMO.

 

If JH is going to wait until we are one pitcher away, that day may never come. I agree with your point.

 

I'm hoping he'll be okay adding two, at some point- sooner rather than later would be nice.

[mvp 78]

If JH is going to wait until we are one pitcher away, that day may never come. I agree with your point.

 

I'm hoping he'll be okay adding two, at some point- sooner rather than later would be nice.

 

This is next year's FA class:

 

Starting pitcher: Gerrit Cole (opt-out), Justin Verlander (vesting option), Max Scherzer, Corbin Burnes, Zack Wheeler, Brandon Woodruff, Max Fried, Shane Bieber, Walker Buehler, Nathan Eovaldi (vesting option), Robbie Ray (opt-out), Alex Cobb, Kyle Hendricks, Charlie Morton, Freddy Peralta (club option), Merrill Kelly (club option), Lucas Giolito (player option), Sean Manaea (opt-out), Michael Wacha (player option), Wade Miley (mutual option), Lance Lynn (club option), Kyle Gibson (club option), Luis Severino, Frankie Montas (mutual option), James Paxton, Jack Flaherty, Yusei Kikuchi, Patrick Corbin, Anthony DeSclafani, Nick Pivetta, Martín Pérez, Domingo Germán, Marco Gonzales (club option), Andrew Heaney, Eric Lauer, John Means, Zach Plesac, José Quintana, Michael Soroka, Ross Stripling, Spencer Turnbull, Luke Weaver

 

Are they going to sit out next offseason too? Wait until '26 for Cease? Wait until '27 for Luzardo?

[moonslav59]

This is next year's FA class:

 

Starting pitcher: Gerrit Cole (opt-out), Justin Verlander (vesting option), Max Scherzer, Corbin Burnes, Zack Wheeler, Brandon Woodruff, Max Fried, Shane Bieber, Walker Buehler, Nathan Eovaldi (vesting option), Robbie Ray (opt-out), Alex Cobb, Kyle Hendricks, Charlie Morton, Freddy Peralta (club option), Merrill Kelly (club option), Lucas Giolito (player option), Sean Manaea (opt-out), Michael Wacha (player option), Wade Miley (mutual option), Lance Lynn (club option), Kyle Gibson (club option), Luis Severino, Frankie Montas (mutual option), James Paxton, Jack Flaherty, Yusei Kikuchi, Patrick Corbin, Anthony DeSclafani, Nick Pivetta, Martín Pérez, Domingo Germán, Marco Gonzales (club option), Andrew Heaney, Eric Lauer, John Means, Zach Plesac, José Quintana, Michael Soroka, Ross Stripling, Spencer Turnbull, Luke Weaver

 

Are they going to sit out next offseason too? Wait until '26 for Cease? Wait until '27 for Luzardo?

 

They may never say yes.

 

I thought this could be the year, after thinking 2022 or 2023 might be it.

 

I'm not holding my breath.

[mvp 78]

They may never say yes.

 

I thought this could be the year, after thinking 2022 or 2023 might be it.

 

I'm not holding my breath.

 

If they NEVER say yes, this team will NEVER get back to the World Series without a complete overhaul of the pitching pipeline. That will take YEARS.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

This is next year's FA class:

 

Starting pitcher: Gerrit Cole (opt-out), Justin Verlander (vesting option), Max Scherzer, Corbin Burnes, Zack Wheeler, Brandon Woodruff, Max Fried, Shane Bieber, Walker Buehler, Nathan Eovaldi (vesting option), Robbie Ray (opt-out), Alex Cobb, Kyle Hendricks, Charlie Morton, Freddy Peralta (club option), Merrill Kelly (club option), Lucas Giolito (player option), Sean Manaea (opt-out), Michael Wacha (player option), Wade Miley (mutual option), Lance Lynn (club option), Kyle Gibson (club option), Luis Severino, Frankie Montas (mutual option), James Paxton, Jack Flaherty, Yusei Kikuchi, Patrick Corbin, Anthony DeSclafani, Nick Pivetta, Martín Pérez, Domingo Germán, Marco Gonzales (club option), Andrew Heaney, Eric Lauer, John Means, Zach Plesac, José Quintana, Michael Soroka, Ross Stripling, Spencer Turnbull, Luke Weaver

 

Are they going to sit out next offseason too? Wait until '26 for Cease? Wait until '27 for Luzardo?

 

Looking at that group -- if they all hit the market -- and wondering what Giolito's thinking... even if he somehow rebounds back into Cy Young contention, does his agent really believe Gio can opt out and find a new contract much better than $20 mil AAV? Guess it all depends on how much Snell and Monty finally settle for this SPRING.