A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Of all the blab we've heard and read coming from Winter Weekend, one conclusion keeps creeping: the 2024 Red Sox really aren't in a rebuild. Maybe next year or 2026... right now, Boston is in Make-Do Mode.

 

A true rebuild involves demolition and an infusion of new materials. Sox said goodbye to Sale and Verdugo (and let other oldsters exit), but only replaced them with Giolito and O'Neill -- reuse/recycle is not a rebuild.

 

Grissom is billed as the new addition, but even he's a second-chance man in a way, at a new position... a stone patio beyond the deck, which still needs to be enclosed to become a sunroom.

 

The other new recruits are bullpen pieces Campbell and Slaten. The true rebuilder besides Breslow appears to be Bailey, the baseball version of the Bar Rescue guy.

 

The '24 Red Sox -- just trying to stay in business.

[Bellhorn04]

Of all the blab we've heard and read coming from Winter Weekend, one conclusion keeps creeping: the 2024 Red Sox really aren't in a rebuild. Maybe next year or 2026... right now, Boston is in Make-Do Mode.

 

A true rebuild involves demolition and an infusion of new materials. Sox said goodbye to Sale and Verdugo (and let other oldsters exit), but only replaced them with Giolito and O'Neill -- reuse/recycle is not a rebuild.

 

Grissom is billed as the new addition, but even he's a second-chance man in a way, at a new position... a stone patio beyond the deck, which still needs to be enclosed to become a sunroom.

 

The other new recruits are bullpen pieces Campbell and Slaten. The true rebuilder besides Breslow appears to be Bailey, the baseball version of the Bar Rescue guy.

 

The '24 Red Sox -- just trying to stay in business.

 

Breslow seems to like a linguistic variation of "rebuild":

 

It’s going to require the build-out of a talent pipeline of arms that we can acquire, we draft, and we can develop internally.

[moonslav59]

Of all the blab we've heard and read coming from Winter Weekend, one conclusion keeps creeping: the 2024 Red Sox really aren't in a rebuild. Maybe next year or 2026... right now, Boston is in Make-Do Mode.

 

A true rebuild involves demolition and an infusion of new materials. Sox said goodbye to Sale and Verdugo (and let other oldsters exit), but only replaced them with Giolito and O'Neill -- reuse/recycle is not a rebuild.

 

Grissom is billed as the new addition, but even he's a second-chance man in a way, at a new position... a stone patio beyond the deck, which still needs to be enclosed to become a sunroom.

 

The other new recruits are bullpen pieces Campbell and Slaten. The true rebuilder besides Breslow appears to be Bailey, the baseball version of the Bar Rescue guy.

 

The '24 Red Sox -- just trying to stay in business.

 

I would not think of Grissom as a “second chance” guy. Many SSs move to2B, and ATL was loaded.

 

It’s sad that it looks like even Clevinger + Duvall is too much money for our winter budget.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Breslow seems to like a linguistic variation of "rebuild":

 

It’s going to require the build-out of a talent pipeline of arms that we can acquire, we draft, and we can develop internally.

 

Taken out of context:

1. Acquire -- Breslow's department... continue scouring Bloomingdale bargain basement bins

3. Develop internally -- Bailey's department... spin gold out of mold

 

2. Draft -- the other 400 front office employees' dept... scout/select/sign prospects, then oversee their progress, and hope some make the majors five years from now (this isn't conscription, where boys go to boot camp for three months and are thrown on the front lines). WAIT TIL 2029!

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I would not think of Grissom as a “second chance” guy. Many SSs move to2B, and ATL was loaded.

 

It’s sad that it looks like even Clevinger + Duvall is too much money for our winter budget.

 

The best team gave him an opportunity to be their full-time shortstop. Now one of the worst teams is giving him a shot at a different position.

[moonslav59]

The best team gave him an opportunity to be their full-time shortstop. Now one of the worst teams is giving him a shot at a different position.

 

Career in ATL:

49 GS at 2B

19 GS at SS

 

He was never viewed as the SS who had the FT job.

[notin]

I would not think of Grissom as a “second chance” guy. Many SSs move to2B, and ATL was loaded.

 

It’s sad that it looks like even Clevinger + Duvall is too much money for our winter budget.

 

Vaughn Grissom turned 23 two weeks ago, and already fans are dismissing him as a player who washed out in his first go-round? Seriously?

 

“He had 236 plate appearances at 22 years old and was only a little bit above league average as a hitter!!” doesn’t strike me as the most damning criticism…

[moonslav59]

Vaughn Grissom turned 23 two weeks ago, and already fans are dismissing him as a player who washed out in his first go-round? Seriously?

 

“He had 236 plate appearances at 22 years old and was only a little bit above league average as a hitter!!” doesn’t strike me as the most damning criticism…

 

This kid is no Jeter Downs!

[notin]

This kid is no Jeter Downs!

 

In think the logic is “he was acquired by the Red Sox, and since the Sox were bad last year they can clearly only acquire bad players. So this guy is obviously bad.”

[notin]

Career in ATL:

49 GS at 2B

19 GS at SS

 

He was never viewed as the SS who had the FT job.

 

They did probably call him up while Swanson was holding down the shortstop role. But there is absolute truth he was never handed the role and washed out. The Braves did bring in Arcia for a reason.

 

But if the criticism is that he washed out at a position the Sox don’t need him to play anyway, I’m not entirely sure that’s much more than criticism for the sake of criticism .

Edited January 21, 2024 by notin

[Duran Is The Man]

Breslow seems to like a linguistic variation of "rebuild":

 

It’s going to require the build-out of a talent pipeline of arms that we can acquire, we draft, and we can develop internally.

 

this is Baseball 101 stuff -build through the farm, blah, blah, blah. the fact that they've waited this long to even think about doing this is insane. or it's just a line of ******** to quell the masses at the gate, holding torches and pitchforks.

[Duran Is The Man]

...

[Duran Is The Man]

Taken out of context:

1. Acquire -- Breslow's department... continue scouring Bloomingdale bargain basement bins

3. Develop internally -- Bailey's department... spin gold out of mold

 

2. Draft -- the other 400 front office employees' dept... scout/select/sign prospects, then oversee their progress, and hope some make the majors five years from now (this isn't conscription, where boys go to boot camp for three months and are thrown on the front lines). WAIT TIL 2029!

 

LOL...nice.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

They did probably call him up while Swanson was holding down the shortstop role. But there is absolute truth he was never handed the role and washed out. The Braves did bring in Arcia for a reason.

 

But if the criticism is that he washed out at a position the Sox don’t need him to play anyway, I’m not entirely sure that’s much more than criticism for the sake of criticism .

 

Who is criticizing Grissom? When the Red Sox acquired him, all reports were that he could hit in the majors, but he was not the answer at shortstop in Atlanta. The Red Sox didn't acquire him to play SS, but had a hole at second base, and immediately anointed him this year's starter.

 

His winter league manager, who played him in the outfield per orders from the Braves, said he needed to improve on defense. Hopefully, Grissom improves 2B for Boston, and is better than Arroyo, Urias, Valdez, Reyes, Kike, Turner, Dalbec, Chang, Hamilton, Rafaela and Wong -- who all played second in '23.

[notin]

Who is criticizing Grissom? When the Red Sox acquired him, all reports were that he could hit in the majors, but he was not the answer at shortstop in Atlanta. The Red Sox didn't acquire him to play SS, but had a hole at second base, and immediately anointed him this year's starter.

 

His winter league manager, who played him in the outfield per orders from the Braves, said he needed to improve on defense. Hopefully, Grissom improves 2B for Boston, and is better than Arroyo, Urias, Valdez, Reyes, Kike, Turner, Dalbec, Chang, Hamilton, Rafaela and Wong -- who all played second in '23.

 

You literally said he was on his second chance.

 

He skyrocketed through the Atlanta farm system - no small feat considering who else was there with him, and the primary focus is on the fact that Atlanta can’t play him in baseball’s most difficult position (not counting catcher). What does Grissom have to do to receive any sort of comment that’s not about his flaws?

[moonslav59]

You literally said he was on his second chance.

 

He skyrocketed through the Atlanta farm system - no small feat considering who else was there with him, and the primary focus is on the fact that Atlanta can’t play him in baseball’s most difficult position (not counting catcher). What does Grissom have to do to receive any sort of comment that’s not about his flaws?

 

He did say “second chance in a way,” but I do see 2024 as his first real chance to win a FT job. 2B is his to win, keep or hold.

[moonslav59]

Masslive's Christopher Smith reports that Cooper Criswell recently told reporters that club brass have instructed him to come to camp ready to start.

 

They have spoken of "stretching out" Winckowski, too.

Edited January 21, 2024 by moonslav59

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

You literally said he was on his second chance.

 

He skyrocketed through the Atlanta farm system - no small feat considering who else was there with him, and the primary focus is on the fact that Atlanta can’t play him in baseball’s most difficult position (not counting catcher). What does Grissom have to do to receive any sort of comment that’s not about his flaws?

 

He literally is. 1st MLB team: Atlanta; 2nd MLB team: Boston.

 

Grissom has been described by coaches who like him as having the potential of becoming a big league regular. But right now he has a lot to prove -- which can or could be said for almost all of the acquisitions of the BresBloom Era... so far.

[Bellhorn04]

Masslive's Christopher Smith reports that Cooper Criswell recently told reporters that club brass have instructed him to come to camp ready to start.

 

They have spoken of "stretching out" Winckowski, too.

 

Looks like Andrew Bailey is being called on to bail out the front office for their failure to actually improve the rotation.

[moonslav59]

Looks like Andrew Bailey is being called on to bail out the front office for their failure to actually improve the rotation.

 

I think Bailey and Brez might just be the answer, but right now, there is way too much riding on upside potential for the rotation as is.

[notin]

He did say “second chance in a way,” but I do see 2024 as his first real chance to win a FT job. 2B is his to win, keep or hold.

 

I don’t see it as any sort of second chance. In order to get a second chance, you need to fail on your first one…

[notin]

He literally is. 1st MLB team: Atlanta; 2nd MLB team: Boston.

 

Grissom has been described by coaches who like him as having the potential of becoming a big league regular. But right now he has a lot to prove -- which can or could be said for almost all of the acquisitions of the BresBloom Era... so far.

 

Second team = second chance now?

 

 

This page needs updating. https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/second%20chance

[notin]

Looks like Andrew Bailey is being called on to bail out the front office for their failure to actually improve the rotation.

 

The man did unlock Kevin Gausman…

[moonslav59]

The best we can expect from our rotation?

 

Here are the best stretches our possible SP'ers have had in recent years:

 

Brayan Bello:

Season: 2023: 4.24 ERA, 4.54 FIP. .777 OPS Against, 1.34 WHIP

20 Game stretch in 2023: 3.18 ERA/ 4.16 FIP, .718 OPSA

 

Lucas Giolito:

Season 2019: 3.41/ 3.43, .645 OPSA, 1.06 WHIP

3 seasons '19-'21: 3.47/ 3.54 and 1.08 WHIP

First 19 starts of 2023: 3.45/ 4.18, and .697 OPSA

 

Nick Pivetta:

Season: 2023: 4.04/ 3.96 and .685 OPSA and 1.12 WHIP (some as RP)

Best SP stretch: last 7 GS of 2023: 2.37/ 2.73 and 543 OPSA

22 GS in 2022: 3.92/.404 (.706 OPSA) and 20 GS in '21: 4.27/4/14 (.699)

 

Kutter Crawford:

Season: 2023 (some as RP): 4.04/ 3.83 and .669 OPSA & 1.11 WHIP

15 game stretch in 2023: 3.73/3.92 and .691 OPSA

 

Tanner Houck:

Seasons: 2021 (some as RP): 3.52/2.58 and .608 OPSA and 1.13 WHIP

2020-2022 as SP (20 GS): 3.22/ 2.85 (Best on Sox w 90+ IP)

11 GS stretch in 2021: 3.51/ 2.87 and .621 OPSA

 

Garrett Whitlock:

He does not have a long record as a SP'er.

8 game stretch as SP'er in 2022: 3.60 ERA/ 3.57 FIP and .687 OPSA

 

We could possibly see a perfect storm, where all these guys put together a long season like some of their best stretches or seasons past, but it is against the odds.

 

There is talent. There are skills. There is some nasty stuff these guys can throw- all of them. The problem is, they have some pretty long stretches of not being good enough to be even a 5th starter.

 

 

These guys do offer some hope for glory in 2024, but to me, we need too many things to click, all at once, for us to go anywhere in '24.

 

I also think we are hurting our chances at having a top tier pen by using 2-3 of our tweener pitchers as starters.

 

I think our offense will be top 10 or very near it.

 

I think our defense should improve from 28th to 30th to near average or near 20th.

 

Our pen strength depends, heavily, on where Pivetta, Crawford, Houck, Whitlock and Wink spend most of their time.

 

The rotation holds the key.

 

Adding Giolito to replace the injury-prone Sale-Paxton tandem does look encouraging, but those two did coombine for 39 GS and nearly 200 IP, last season, so he can't really fill all those starts lost. The rest will have to come from our tweeners.

 

Adding one more innings eater, even if not a great or even very good SP'er would at least greatly improve the pen, on paper.

 

Paxton may or may not start 20-30 games, next year. Clevinger rates to start more. Someone like Lorenzen might be who we settle on.

 

I'm trying real hard to look for glimmers of hope, so I reposted this post of mine from a few days ago, highlighting the best of the best these pitchers of ours have done, in recent seasons- some very recently.

 

I do realize, some teams have gone very far without a plus rotation, but that is rare. Certainly, our odds of doing well in 2024 would improve by adding a solid SP'er. I just don't see how we do it, unless we trade Jansen, and then we are essentially robbing Peter to pay Paul.

 

[moonslav59]

I don’t see it as any sort of second chance. In order to get a second chance, you need to fail on your first one…

 

I think you guys are splitting hairs over some wording.

 

I see your point and don't think Grissom failed, out of the gates. I guess, one might argue that if his defense was a plus and he hit .900, maybe he would have played more SS with ATL, and "won the job," but they knew all along he was not a plus defender at SS and hence added Arcia.

 

I also see GG's point and think Grissom would not have really had a shot at being a FT'er with ATL in 2024, unless there was an injury, so "in a way" he is getting an opportunity to be a FT'er with us. In fact, it looks like 2B is already his to lose. That would not have been the case in ATL.

 

He certainly has a better opportunity with BOS. Maybe "better" opportunity is closer to the mark than "second," but I don't see this as a big deal.

 

Grissom will be given a strong chance to get over 600 PAs with BOS at 2B. I'm very hopeful he will not disappoint us.

 

[moonslav59]

Our 2B position was nothing short of awful in 2023, and wasn't all that great before that either.

 

On defense:

 

2021-2023 Team D at 2B:

OAA Split Seasons Rankings (120 team samples)

120. BOS 2023 (-50)

118. BOS 2021 (-40)

91. BOS 2022 (-13)

3 years combined:

28. Nats -87

29. BOS -108

30. CIN -109

 

To be fair, DRS and UZR/150 have us near average over the last 3 seasons.

 

On offense: 2021-2023

.722 OPS (14th) We were 16th from '22-'23 at .694

93 wRC+ (20th) We were 23rd from '22-'23 at 87.

2024: 26th in wRC+ at 75.

The .663 OPS in '24 was 22nd and just .002 from 24th.

 

I think Grissom gives us, perhaps, the best chance at improving a position on offense and defense than any other positions, except SS (a healthy Story vs Kike & Co..)

[moonslav59]

This team has come a long way from the greatest team in Red Sox history: 2018. There is no question, we are far from that level, right now. The decline began in 2019, when we lost Kimbrell and Kelly, and started seeing sharp declines from several players, some due to natural age decline. Porcello would soon be out of baseball, all together. Sale and Price have never come close to their previous glory. Nate had a few good seasons, but missed quite a few starts after 20.18, and beginning in 2019. Our 2019 pen of Barnes, Workman, Walden, Brasier, Brewer, Brasier and others was nothing special.

 

It's that core of everyday stars we miss the most: Betts, Bogey, JD, Beni, JBJ and Vaz. The last 3 are no longer viewed as viable players, so it's really about the loss of Betts, Bogey, JD, ERod and Nate. The rest of the 2019 roster might have been pretty good, then, but would not be viewed as plusses, now. The returning Devers, if of course, still a plus.

 

The big trade with the Dodgers and failure to replace the loss of Porcello and a few others after 2019, left the 40 man roster and farm looking pretty shallow at the start of 2020. Erod sitting out the season hurt. No Sale did, too, but the depth of the roster and ML ready farm was about as low as we've seen in the Henry era. Lack of funding and farm depth took its toll.

 

This was the season ending roster of 2019 (along with the top prospects), at the time:

 

SP: ERod, Nate, Price, Sale, Porcello, Cashner (Houck, Shawaryn, K Hart)

RP: Workman, Barnes, Taylor, Walden, DHern, Brasier, Hembree, J Smith (Lakins, Chacin, Poyner)

C: Vaz & Leon (Centeno & Oscar Hernandez)

1B: Moreland & Sam Travis (Chavis/Dalbec)

2B: Holt, Owings

SS: Bogey, Marco Hernandez (Chatham)

3B: Devers (Dalbec)

LF: Beni (Brentz)

CF: JBJ (Gorkys Hern)

RF: Betts (Rusney Castillo)

DH: JD

 

That was one hell of a core of 6, and the next best 6-8 players were pretty decent or showed real promise, but seriously, look at the bottom 25-27 on the 40.

 

The top prospects listed on soxprospects.com in OCT or '23:

1. Casas (2-3 years away)

2. Mata has never met expectations

3. Groome was a big letdown

4. Gilberto Jimenez was, too

5. Dalbec showed a brief stretch of promise, then fizzled out quickly

6. Duran is only now showing the promise from 4+ years ago.

7. Houck was the only real significant plus from the farm from the summer of 2017 to mid 2022. Even he has lost some luster.

8. Song, 9. Chatham, 10. T Ward... Blah

11-20 had 12. Aldo Ramirez traded for Schwarber, 13. Chris Murphy who might give us something, Bello at 17 and Rafaela at #19.

 

I can't help but think this roster depth was pitiful. There was no way that solid core of 6 plus the supporting 6-8 others could never have carried that team to glory without some serious star help that never came.

 

That being said, while our core of stars has shrunk from 6 to 2-3 (maybe Devers, Casas and possibly Bello and Story), the roster and farm depth is light years better than the end of 2019 and start of 2020.

 

Core 3: Devers, Casas & Bello

Supporting 9: Martin, Jansen, Wink, Giolito, Story, O'Neill, Yoshida, Grissom & Duran.

Beyond these 12:

Pivetta, Crawford, Houck, Whitlock, Castillo, Murphy

Schreiber, Bernardino, Slaten, Campbell, Criswell, Bernardino

Wong, McGuire, Reyes, Refsnyder

ML Ready Prospects: (farther away)

Fitts, Walter, Gambrell (Wikelman, Perales, Monegro)

Weissert, Kelly, Guerrero (Benitez, Olivares)

Perez, Scott (Teel, Hickey, Jo Garcia, Brannon)

Kavadas (Jordan)

E Valdez, Yorke (A Anderson)

DHam (Mayer, Cespedes)

Meidroth (Zanetello, Paulino)

Abreu (Castro)

Rafaela (Anthony

Rosier (Bleis

 

I may be a homer, but this depth is a major improvement. Call it "mediocrity" or whatever, but it's better than what it was, and the farm depth, too.

 

Now, we just need to add 2-3 major stars and let the others battle over winning support roles.

 

[moonslav59]

How many here would trade Yoshida, saving the most money possible, regardless of the return and Jansen, so we could sign Monty?

 

(Remember, Sale's contract is off the books, next year, along with Pivetta, O'Neill and Martin's contracts.)

[vjcsmoke]

Realistic view - 70 wins.

Optimistic view - 75 wins.

 

It's just more of the same. Red Sox ownership are in a holding pattern because they simply don't want to spend the money to compete in the AL East anymore.

 

They have a wet dream that the Red Sox can magically turn into Tampa North when the reality is that they are operating in a big market city and prices are different to bring players into Boston.

 

Whatever, another wasted year coming right up! It's going to take a lot of empty seats and actual significant loss of revenues before ownership changes their tune.

[notin]

Masslive's Christopher Smith reports that Cooper Criswell recently told reporters that club brass have instructed him to come to camp ready to start.

 

They have spoken of "stretching out" Winckowski, too.

 

Not sure were this going, but Worcester needs starting pitchers, too. Criswell is rotation depth, coverage in the 7th to 10th starter range. He is not battling for a spot in the opening day rotation, unless there are multiple injuries.

 

Of course he probably will make a few starts at the MLB level. I can’t tell you how many, but I can tell you it will be too many.

 

And I put the odds at him finishing the season on the Sox 40 man roster at less than 25%…